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2019 13 2 10 30 2 1 3 2 3 1 8 49 5 The 12 Global Economic Indicators to Watch 9 6 2019 Global PMI IHS Markit and JPMorgan Chase s snapshot of the health of manufacturing around the world based on surveys of multiple purchasing managers on their activity A number above 50 signals expansion Updates monthly Last Sept 3 2019 54 53 52 51 50 49 U S 2020 2019 2018 2017 164K 2016 You have 2 free articles remaining Get unlimited access for 1 99 mo Already a subscriber or Bloomberg Anywhere client Sign In You have 2 free articles remaining Get unlimited access for 1 99 mo Already a subscriber or Bloomberg Anywhere client Sign In U S Employment You have 2 free articles remaining Get A unlimited 1 99 mo measureaccess of howfortight the labor market is running in the world s biggest economy Already a subscriber or Bloomberg Anywhere client Sign In Updates monthly Last Aug 2 2019 Get unlimited access for 1 99 mo 2 12 1 4 7 3 6 0 5 0 2 1 2 2018 https www bloomberg com graphics world economic indicators dashboard

2020 2020 S P500 18 1 5 2 2019 1 5 MSCI EUROPE S P500 20 2 125 10 90 24 90 35 Major Regions Figure 1 25 MSCI FORWARD P E 25 weekly Forward P E Capped at 20 Emerging Markets 11 6 EMU 12 9 Japan 12 3 UK 11 7 US 16 8 20 8 29 20 15 15 10 10 5 yardeni com 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 5 Price divided by 12 month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share Source I B E S data by Refinitiv 9 Figure 2 30 25 FORWARD P E WORLD MSCI Forward P E All Country World 14 8 EAFE 13 2 Emerging Markets 11 6 30 25

2019 Healthy inve inflows to th over the las steady net b Investment Grade Inflows Supported Net Buying Fund of Credit Investment Grade Mutual Fund Flows Six Month Rolling Total 60 0 4 Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Total Return 2 84 HY 80bn 60bn 40bn 20bn 0bn 20bn 0 19 y2 J ul 0 19 e2 Jun 19 y20 Ma 19 20 r il 19 Ap 20 r ch 18 Ma 20 Feb 18 20 Jan 018 c 2 18 De 0 v 2 No 018 t 2 Oc 018 t 2 Sep 018 g 2 Au 018 y2 J ul 018 40bn e2 Jun Source Guggenheim Investments Investment Company Institute Data as of 7 31 2019 June and July based on estimated weekly fund flows A Record 15 Trillion in Global Debt Is Yielding Below Zero With a reco debt yieldin Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Negative Yielding Debt LHS Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Negative Yielding Debt Corporates RHS 1 trillion of corporate d U S dollar should rema and foreign 18tn 1200bn 16tn 1000bn 14tn 800bn 12tn 10tn 600bn 8tn 400bn 6tn 4tn 200bn 2tn 0bn 0tn 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 Senior loans Senior loans Source Guggenheim Investments Bloomberg Data as of 8 9 2019 Fixed Income Outlook Third Quarter 2019 10 6 9 2019

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DALBAR 2018 S P500 4 9 2 2019 S P 500 Panic Attacks Fed Communication Error Trade War Escalation 3 000 Quitaly Fears 2 900 N Korea Crisis 2 800 2 700 Trump Impeachment Scare Trade War Accelerates Brent Bottoms at 27 88 Brexit Short Volatility Unwind Endgame Panic Third Ave Blows Up Japan Goes NIRP U S Gov Shutdown Renewed Grexit Greece Sets Scare 7 5 Vote 2 600 2 500 2 400 2 300 2 200 2 100 Rate Hike Scare Oil Falls Dollar Rises Yuan Devalued ETF Flash Crash WTI Bottoms 2019 2018 2017 2016 2 000 1 900 1 800 1 700 2015 Effects of Panic Attacks on Average Investors 30 Years Annualized Returns 1987 2016 The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result Attributed to Albert Einstein Data as of June 28 2019 Source Standard Poor s Past performance is not a guarantee of future results Investors cannot invest directly in an index and unmanaged index returns do not reflect any fees expenses or sales charges 3 9 7 10 2 12 10 8 4 5 6 6 3 5 4 4 3 5 2 6 2 7 Average Investor Inflation 3 5 2 Homes Gold International Equities Government Related Bonds REITs Investment Returns 12 4 Source Bloomberg Dec 31 2016 Average asset allocation investor return is based on an analysis by DALBAR Inc which utilizes the net of aggregate mutual fund sales redemptions and exchanges each month as a measure of investor behavior Indices shown are as follows REITs are represented by the Wilshire Index U S Stocks are represented by the S P 500 Index International Equities are represented by the MSCI EAFE Index Government Related Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U S Aggregate Bond Index Homes are represented by U S existing home sales median price Gold is represented by the U S dollar spot price of one troy ounce Inflation is represented by the Consumer Price Index Indices are unmanaged and cannot be purchased directly by investors Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict the performance of any investment Past performance is no guarantee of future results U S Stock 0

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