ROADMAPAPRIL
CONTENTSPAGE Welcome from our Investment Committee ChairPAGE Macroeconomic Overview PAGE Thematic One: Geopolitics PAGE Thematic two: Watching Financial Strains PAGE Thematic three: Uncovering Risk & Opportunities: Future Environmental Finance Focus Areas PAGE Interest Rate Securities PAGE Australian Equities PAGE International Equities PAGE Alternatives
EVANS & PARTNERS4 Roadmap | April 2023Honor McFadyen – Independent Chair, E&P Investment CommitteeWELCOME
EVANS & PARTNERS5 Roadmap | April 2023Welcome to 2023 - it has proven to be as volatile as we had feared. Importantly, we don’t believe the collapse of SVB and Credit Suisse is the start of a nancial crisis. Still, it has focused the mind on the possibility of a credit crunch. Tim Rocks, our CIO, will explore this further as the precursor, in our opinion, to a recession in the US and potentially Australia in late 2023.The banking events provided a reminder that there will likely be some unintended consequences of the most aggressive rate hiking cycle in more than 40 years. We need to be cautious at this juncture.Policymakers in the US still need to decide whether to continue pushing ahead in their battle to contain ination trends or look to restore nancial stability through injections of liquidity. We believe they will be forced to stick to the task at hand in the near term. Given the strength of the US labour market, they will keep monetary policy tight and dispel any threat of a reacceleration in ination like that of the 1970s.Of course, this increases the probability of a hard landing. The higher central banks push interest rates, and the longer they keep them in restrictive territory, the greater the economic impact. We believe the risk of a US recession, and potentially for Australia, has increased markedly. We have made changes to our asset allocation recommendations in response. The CIO Team has positioned portfolios in a defensive, holding pattern mode whilst we await information that will allow us to shi allocations and take advantage of opportunities in the future. We note sentiment toward private markets has cooled amongst investors, and unconstrained strategies are falling out of favour with higher or similar yields now available on higher quality xed income. Liquidity and asset allocation concentration have been the focus of the Investment Committee in 2023. Pleasingly we have had some timely liquidity events, enabling portfolios to reposition and increase their cash holdings. This will place investors in a condent position when assessing opportunities in the future. Importantly for those clients seeking Sustainable investment options, we have suitable sustainable options either via managed funds or companies utilising the expertise of Will Hart (Director, ESG) and his team.The average asset allocation among our client base still deviates from our Enhanced SAA framework . We encourage you to speak with your adviser to ensure your portfolios are positioned appropriately for your risk preference. We continue to highlight the importance of a diverse portfolio, ensuring you do not have high concentrations of exposure to any one sector. The recent experience of Credit Suisse has reminded the investor about the potential volatility in investment products lower down in the capital structure. Cash and liquidity remain the focus in the current environment; however, we are still evaluating global markets and the investment opportunity set. Holding defensive positions will depend on the length of the interest rate hike cycle. Despite the negative absolute returns in 2022, we have been encouraged by the positive contributions from our Tactical Asset Allocation decisions, which have validated our investment process, governance framework and supporting resources. We hope you are enjoying the updates from our CIO, Tim Rocks and the equity research provided by Cameron McDonald’s team. Stay close to your adviser during these interesting and volatile markets, as there will be investment opportunities, notwithstanding our focus on limiting drawdowns in the portfolio.
EVANS & PARTNERS6 Roadmap | April 2023Given the spectrum of risks on the horizon, it is a challenging time for investors. Economies are starting to wilt aer a full year of interest rate rises, pockets of nancial stress are sprouting, and geopolitical tensions remain in the spotlight. At such times it is also essential to keep some perspective. Most investors have long-term horizons, and many current stresses will fade from view over the next year. Investors with balanced, diversied portfolios should be able to withstand the immediate stresses and may even be able to take advantage of opportunities created by any further volatility.While some form of recession in the US is now the base case, it is crucial to recognise that not every recession is a crisis. Most historical recessions, particularly those generated by central bank tightening, are relatively shallow and brief. On average, US recessions have lasted only ten months, and equity markets trough around their mid-point. More severe outcomes typically only occur if there is a nancial crisis. Even though there have been some recent failures in the US banking sector, the prospects of a system-wide crisis like the GFC appear low. In most major economies, lending behaviour has been conservative, banking regulation has been tightened, and most banks have substantially more capital and liquidity buers in place. This will not prevent isolated problems from occurring but will meaningfully reduce the prospects of broader contagion.There are also good reasons to expect the next economic cycle to be a strong one. Three major waves of spending are at their early stages and could last for at least a decade. These are spending to achieve the renewable energy transition, signicant increases in healthcare spending to address gaps and deciencies exposed by COVID, and a major re-evaluation of manufacturing supply chains. The Russia/Ukraine conict is now accelerating the energy transition in Europe. A major wave of construction is set to begin in Australia, led by the Brisbane Olympics, the second Sydney airport and a range of large road and rail projects.It might not feel like it, but the current environment is a better entry point for long-term investors than two years ago. Expected returns are higher across almost all asset classes, including cash, government bonds and credit instruments where yields have jumped with the rise in interest rates. And for equity markets, even though there are short-term risks, valuations are well below 2021, and the most signicant determinant of the future return for equities is the price at your entry point.Aside from this, we must always bear in mind that markets are forward-looking and will move ahead of changes in the economic cycle. All this means we need a balanced approach with one eye on the short-term risks but also maintaining focus on the long-term potential for markets and long-term investment goals. Tim Rocks – Chief Investment OcerMax Casey – Director & Portfolio Strategist, E&P ResearchRobin Young – Executive Director, E&P ResearchMACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
EVANS & PARTNERS7 Roadmap | April 2023US RECESSIONS & EQUITY MARKET PERFORMANCESource: NBER, Renitiv, E&P * Peak to current ** S&P500 trough occurred in Oct’02, ~10-months aer US recession endedFORECAST 10 YEAR RETURNS - NOW AND 2 YEARS AGOSource: Renitiv, Evans & PartnersGLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION INVESTMENT BY SECTORSource: BloombergNEF. Note: start-years dier by sector but all sectors are present from 2019 onward; see Appendix for more detail. Nuclear gures start in 2015.
EVANS & PARTNERS8 Roadmap | April 2023Tim Rocks – Chief Investment OcerMax Casey – Director & Portfolio Strategist, E&P ResearchRobin Young – Executive Director, E&P ResearchTHEMATIC ONE GEOPOLITICSGeopolitical pressures remain heightened. The relationships between the major world powers are realigning in a way not seen for at least 30 years and with unpredictable consequences. The bilateral relationships between the US/China and the US/Russia have been deteriorating for a decade. Meanwhile, a more assertive China has moved closer to Russia and has increased its inuence in the Middle East, evidenced by its role in brokering a pact between Iran and Saudi Arabia. China may have turned Saudi from a US to a Chinese ally, with signicant implications for the ability of the US to inuence events in that region.Typically, political developments have far less impact on markets and economies than we fear. However, they can create short-term volatility, and there is always the risk that glacial shis in relationships can accelerate and turn into conict.The current hotspots are Russia/Ukraine and China/Taiwan. Looking rst at Russia/Ukraine, signicant support from Europe and the US has created a stalemate for now. Putin was expecting that disruption to gas supply would create an energy crisis in Europe, but so far, this has been averted by careful resource management and a fortuitously warm winter. This has weakened his negotiating position; the question now is whether Ukraine will mount a counter-oensive over the summer and how Putin would respond to any territorial losses resulting from that. The potential for a Chinese attack on Taiwan remains high prole. Still, the risks are overstated in the short term, particularly ahead of the Taiwanese presidential election in 2024, which might see the return to power of the mainland-friendly Kuomintang. Conict risks are exaggerated for a few reasons: ▪ China is dependent on Taiwan for imports of technology components, and the US and China remain heavily economically intertwined. ▪ President Xi will have observed the damage done to Russia by Western sanctions; he may still decide that this is a price worth paying but would seek to minimise the damage by repatriating funds held abroad, disentangling China’s nancial system from the West, and reducing its $US dependency.
EVANS & PARTNERS9 Roadmap | April 2023 ▪A blockade makes more military sense than a land invasion. Given Taiwan’s lack of domestic energy supply, this could work quickly.More broadly, there would be several other early warning signs that a conict was imminent, which are not currently in place: rising propaganda, surging military production, tighter capital controls, and stockpiling of food, arms, and critical goods. These are much more dicult to achieve covertly in the age of satellites. We believe it is unnecessary to change portfolios materially to reect the threat until some of these signs are in place.The Middle East has disappeared from view in recent years, but the potential for escalation and energy disruption is never far away, and US inuence in the region has diminished in recent years. Iran remains the most signicant threat as it pursues its ambitions for regional dominance and nuclear weaponisation. Amongst those potential negatives, the better news is that the European Union is more stable than it has been in decades. The Union has reunited behind a common threat from Russia, and the threat of break up has reduced since countries would not wish to repeat UK’s exit experience. Signicant advances have also been made towards a scal union.Commodity exposure is the best way to maintain some portfolio protection against geopolitical risk. Supply disruptions and stockpiling tend to lead to price rises across a broad range of commodities during conicts. Gold also acts as a safe haven asset during periods of elevated risk.EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS PRICESSource: Renitiv Datastream, E&PUS TRADE RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINASource: Renitiv Datastream, E&PBRENT OIL PRICESource: Renitiv Datastream, E&P
EVANS & PARTNERS10 Roadmap | April 2023WATCHING FINANCIAL STRAINSAer several small bank failures, pressures have recently emerged in the US nancial system.The stresses have come about because of signicant deposit outow in recent months as US households have accessed funds for some revenge spending and sought better returns in credit and equity markets. This deposit outow happened quickly and exposed poor liquidity management amongst smaller institutions. Some banks have also been caught out by mark-to-market losses on securities held on balance sheets. The Federal Reserve acted decisively by extending deposit guarantees and oering to buy securities at their par value. This helped contain the damage but given that there are over 4,000 banks in the US and limited regulation at the smaller end, it would not be a surprise if additional problems emerged.Stepping back, however, there is much less risk in the nancial system than in the lead-up to the 2007 nancial crisis. US household debt has been declining relative to income, and lending quality has steadily improved. Changes to global capital rules mean that capital buers are also much greater than 15 years ago, particularly for smaller US banks where tier 1 ratios average around 22%. Aggregate levels of liquidity across the US system are also healthy, so even though deposits are leaving, there are still plenty of them overall; the average loan-deposit ratio is only 70% compared with around 100% before the crisis. This makes a systemic crisis far less likely. The Fed will, however, be vigilant and watch for evidence of a credit crunch led by banks’ inability to lend. Some tightening in credit standards is expected during a rising rate period, but a major change in credit availability would have macro consequences.Nevertheless, further pockets of stress are inevitable aer such a fast and sharp change in interest rates. There are a few sectors that look particularly vulnerable and will need to be monitored closely. One is US commercial property. Regional banks have been major lenders to real estate, and there could be some pressure points if they cannot renance loans as they fall due. The oce sector, in particular, has seen a jump in vacancies due to the switch to hybrid working. Government debt jumped globally during the COVID crisis and remains exceptionally high relative to history. As rates rise, this debt will be harder to service, and several less-wealthy countries will likely be forced into default.Tim Rocks – Chief Investment OcerMax Casey – Director & Portfolio Strategist, E&P ResearchRobin Young – Executive Director, E&P ResearchTHEMATIC TWO
EVANS & PARTNERS11 Roadmap | April 2023US BANK DEPOSITSSource: Renitiv Datastream, E&PUS HOUSEHOLD DEBTSource: Renitiv Datastream, E&PECONOMICALLY, SMALL BANKS TEND TO PUNCH ABOVE THEIR WEIGHT
EVANS & PARTNERS12 Roadmap | April 2023UNCOVERING RISK & OPPORTUNITIES FUTURE ENVIRONMENTAL FINANCE FOCUS AREASGiven the increasing role played in nancial markets, it is useful for investors to follow developments in environmental nance. Here, we outline three areas investors should watch closely:1. Who pays for climate damage?At COP27, a ‘loss and damage fund’ – a mechanism whereby emerging economies’ climate adaptation and resilience eorts are funded by developed nations – was proposed. While reports vary, climate-linked losses are estimated to reach as much as US$580 billion annually by 2030. This raises an interesting question for investors to ponder. Could companies (or governments) be liable for the future damage caused by climate change if they historically owned or operated carbon-intensive assets?Analysis of the historic emissions footprint of ASX-listed corporates is useful in determining contribution. It shows the seven largest ASX exposed corporates (AGL Energy (AGL), Rio Tinto (RIO), Alcoa Australia (40% owned by AWC), Origin Energy (ORG), Bluescope Steel (BSL), BHP Group (BHP) and Woodside (WDS)) have been responsible for ~25% of Australia’s cumulative emissions footprint since 2008.While a tail risk, investors should be mindful of potential litigation risks for businesses with signicant historical emissions footprints. Notably, most plaintis have won historic climate litigation cases globally. At the very least western governments — with exploding budget decits — will need to fund any potential ‘loss and damage’ scheme, and historic polluters appear low-hanging fruit.William Hart – Director, ESG & Sustainable InvestmentCaleb Adams – Associate Director, ESG & Sustainable InvestmentTHEMATIC THREE
EVANS & PARTNERS13 Roadmap | April 20232. A shi in focus to the ‘other’ greenhouse gasThe Global Methane Pledge – committing over 150 countries to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030 – was launched in 2021. This initiative now covers over 50% of global methane emissions. Methane is a signicantly more potent greenhouse gas, with warming potential between 20-80x that of carbon dioxide, depending on the timeframe. This will impact several sectors, including: ▪ Agriculture; given the methane footprint of ruminant animals (livestock) and manure. This is likely to be addressed via feedstock additives (seaweed) or, in the longer term, may result in substituting animal goods with synthetic alternatives. ▪ Waste and landll; given fugitive emissions. This is likely to see greater waste diversion of organics — and signicant investment in gas capture for use as energy. ▪ The oil, gas and coal industry; given the production value chains of fossil fuels. This is mainly related to methane leakages in oil and gas production, gas distribution and storage, and venting in the coal mining industry.3. The next frontier: biodiversity and ecosystem servicesThe ‘environment’ is more than simply managing greenhouse gas emissions – it includes the world’s stock of natural resources, including soil, air, water and biodiversity.While nature underpins our economy and society, it is chronically underappreciated and under-priced in nancial markets. It is estimated that US$44 trillion in global economic output — half the world’s total — is either highly or moderately dependent on nature. Key industries such as healthcare (pharmaceutical product development), agriculture (crop yields) and parts of insurance (climate resilience) are dependent upon natural capital for value creation. For example, Aspirin - one of the most widely used drugs in the world - is derived from the bark of the willow tree.There is movement in the industry to create a natural capital agreement equivalent to the ‘Paris Agreement’, with countries pushing to agree to limit biodiversity and natural capital loss. A ‘30 by 30’ goal - to conserve 30% of land and sea areas by 2030 - has been agreed upon by 100 countries (including Australia) at the recent COP15 biodiversity summit. This is likely to see companies in many industries absorb higher costs, as natural capital assets are recognised both for their link to value creation – and their nite characteristics.CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS OF ASX-LISTED CORPORATES (2008-2021)Source: E&P, National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting (NGER). *AGL footprint includes historic emissions of Macquarie Generation portfolio. **BSL includes historic emissions of OneSteelAUSTRALIAN METHANE EMISSIONS BY INDUSTRY (2020)Source: E&P, Department of Industry, Science and Resources (DISR), Australian Greenhouse Gas Inventory
EVANS & PARTNERS14 Roadmap | April 2023One asset class that has become more attractive over the past year has been interest rate securities. Investing in interest rate securities was very challenging for many years when ocial rates were close to zero in most major markets, benchmark 10-year bond yields were not much higher and spreads on corporate debt were also near record lows. During the period of ultra-low interest rates, investors were eectively being forced to take on more risk because the return on many “safe” assets had fallen below the ination rate. Those sitting in bonds and cash were likely to see the real value of portfolios decline over time. This is no longer the case. The rapid change in ocial short-term interest rates, higher bond yields and increase in spreads have opened up opportunities. However, investors need to be wary of the potential for rising defaults in credit portfolios, so they should be cautious in their approach to high-risk parts of the market.Our preference for the moment is for term deposits and oating-rate instruments from quality issuers, and we would also be adding some exposure to xed-rate government bonds.Our preferred oating rate instruments are investment grade credit. With the resetting of interest rates, these are now oering returns of 5-7% - around double the rate of a couple of years ago.Government debt has become more attractive as yields have risen. Bonds can play an important role in portfolios during periods of volatility because the value of bonds tends to rise when equities fall.Term deposit rates are starting to rise again aer being close to zero for several years. Banks are being more aggressive in their pricing, and there are now some oers above 4%. However, investors should be careful about locking away money for too long because ongoing market volatility could create opportunities for those with cash on hand. Returns for hybrids have risen in line with the increase in short-term interest rates such that current yields-to-maturity are 5.5-6%. Further increases in rates could push them up further. This is attractive relative to other parts of the markets, but we would caution that spreads are surprisingly low given the potential economic risks over the next year, so there is some chance that rising margins could reduce mark-to-market returns.Tim Rocks – Chief Investment OcerMax Casey – Director & Portfolio Strategist, E&P ResearchRobin Young – Executive Director, E&P ResearchINTEREST RATE SECURITIES
EVANS & PARTNERS15 Roadmap | April 2023US 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT YIELDSource: Robert Shiller, Thompson Reuters Datastream, Evans & PartnersCORPORATE BOND SPREADSSource: Renitiv Datastream, E&PAUSTRALIA TERM DEPOSIT RATESource: Renitiv Datastream, Evans & Partners
EVANS & PARTNERS16 Roadmap | April 2023The good news for Australian equity investors is that there is less macro risk in Australia, and valuations are not as stretched as in the US.While further slowing appears inevitable in the Australian economy, the pressures are not as intense. Ination is far less entrenched than in the US, mostly because we do not face the same imbalances in our labour market. A strong bounce in immigration in Australia has alleviated worker shortages, and a more structured wage-setting system has resulted in more controlled wage outcomes. Australian households also have a large accumulation of savings that are still being spent, helping them cope with rising interest rates.We also see Australia as well positioned for medium-term expansion. The next global cycle appears set to be dominated by major capex programs in the energy, healthcare and manufacturing sectors. This should be a strong support for commodity demand. We are also on the cusp of a local construction wave driven by the Brisbane Olympics, a second Sydney airport, major road and rail projects, and a rebuilding of the electricity network to accommodate the adoption of renewable energy.The Australian equity market is also less stretched in valuation terms than the US. The Australian forward price-earnings ratio has fallen by around 25% since its peak. This means that much risk has been priced in. The adjustment to overall market valuations has not been uniform across sectors. Some sectors have been particularly aected, while others have held up relatively well. Investors should continue to be wary of sectors that could be particularly aected by further weakness in the economy, but they should also have an eye on sectors where too much risk has been priced in. Financials, including banks, is one sector where we recommend caution. Banks’ share prices have held up relatively well because high interest rates have translated to higher interest margins and prots. But this eect will soon peak as banks are forced to increase deposit rates and compete more aggressively for new business. There is also the risk of credit deterioration as higher interest rates eat away at borrowers, particularly those forced to switch from xed rates.There are a few other areas where we are looking to increase exposure in any periods of volatility and market weakness: small companies, property trusts, commodities and energy. Tim Rocks – Chief Investment OcerMax Casey – Director & Portfolio Strategist, E&P ResearchRobin Young – Executive Director, E&P ResearchAUSTRALIAN EQUITIES
EVANS & PARTNERS17 Roadmap | April 2023Small companies have suered the most from market weakness over the past year. Fund managers have suered redemptions and been forced to sell, which has had a sharp eect on prices. Many of these companies, however, have the most to gain when the cycle turns.Property trusts have been unloved because they have relatively high levels of debt, and investors have been concerned about the potential for stress from rising rates. These eects do appear to be overdone and fears will recede once interest rates peak. Commodity and energy companies have a history of underperforming during market downturns because of the cyclical nature of prices and volumes. However, they will be major beneciaries of the coming capex boom, so they could quickly recover.AUSTRALIAN EXCESS SAVINGS %Source: Renitiv, Evans & PartnersFIXED RATE MORTAGES EXPIRINGSource: RBA, CBA, Evans & PartnersAUSTRALIA DOLLARSource: Renitiv Datastream, E&P
EVANS & PARTNERS18 Roadmap | April 2023The short-term outlook for global equities is challenging. There is a larger set of more complicated risks facing global companies, and it is less clear that valuations have fallen suciently to account for those risks. This makes us cautious in the short term. Still, investors should not become too negative because we expect a strong recovery in 2024 as ination and interest rate risks fade and a new economic cycle starts.The US faces greater macro risks than the local economy, and a mild recession remains the most likely outcome in the second half of 2023. The failure of several banks shows that rising interest rates can have unexpected consequences. We expect that more problems will emerge amongst the 4000 banks in the US, but a nancial crisis should be avoided because the system is on a much sounder footing than it was in 2007 at the start of the GFC. At the same time, persistent wage and ination problems will make it dicult for the US Federal Reserve to change course on interest rates anytime soon. A further challenge for the US market is the outlook for earnings. Aside from the impact of a recession, US companies face pressure from rising wage costs and a very high $US. The $US is important because around 40% of US company prots are generated oshore. These earnings risks do not appear to be adequately factored into analysts’ earnings forecasts or equity valuations in aggregate. Some parts of the market, particularly smaller companies, are becoming more attractive, but overall, the US market remains vulnerable to further volatility as the economy and earnings slow.Europe has been surprisingly resilient so far in 2023. There was the potential for an energy crisis due to the Russia/Ukraine conict, but this has not eventuated. There are questions about whether this resilience can be sustained as the conict drags on. Much will also depend on the European Central Bank, which has been much slower to raise rates even though the ination threat is as signicant as in the US. We do not recommend increasing exposure to Europe at this time, but we will monitor the situation as equity markets are not expensive, and holders of European assets will eventually enjoy a rebound in the Euro that has slumped to record lows.Tim Rocks – Chief Investment OcerMax Casey – Director & Portfolio Strategist, E&P ResearchRobin Young – Executive Director, E&P ResearchINTERNATIONAL EQUITIES
EVANS & PARTNERS19 Roadmap | April 2023Emerging markets are the stand-out global region for now. China should provide momentum in the short term, given the remarkable turn in its economy since COVID restrictions were removed at the start of the year. Consumer spending has unsurprisingly returned, but what is more encouraging is that the property sector is recovering. This sector was under pressure last year as several large developers failed, but this year has seen a bounce in sales and the commencement of many new projects. The regulatory background has also become more benign, with it becoming clear that the government is now prepared to work with the major tech companies rather than attacking them, as was the case a few years ago. There is potentially more upside because the equity market has been slow to factor this recovery into equity prices and earnings forecasts.US COMPANIES NET PROFIT MARGINSource: Renitiv Datastream, Evans & PartnersCHINA H SHARESSource: Renitiv Datastream, Evans & PartnersEUROSource: Renitiv Datastream, Evans & Partners
EVANS & PARTNERS20 Roadmap | April 2023Alternative assets serve many essential roles in portfolios. There are two broad categories of alternatives: growth alternatives and defensive alternatives. Growth alternatives include private equity and venture capital. These typically provide exposure to parts of the economy that are either not or poorly represented in public equity markets. The private equity market has changed signicantly in recent years and, in our view, is now essential for investors seeking a well-diversied exposure to high returning assets.Part of the reason for this is the changing nature of public markets. The number of listed companies in the US has halved since the golden days in the 1990s. Fewer companies are listing, and they are doing so later in their lifetime. They are more likely to be mature when they do so, meaning much of their rapid growth will already be behind them. For example, when Amazon listed in 1997, it had only 256 employees and $16 million in revenue. It is about 6000 times larger today, and this all occurred in public markets. The new generation of Amazons are being incubated for ten years in venture capital funds, and much of the upside will be gone by the time they are listed.Defensive alternatives include less volatile assets that should provide a more stable source of return over time, or which are lowly or negatively correlated with traditional asset classes. This could include infrastructure investments, hedge funds and gold. These defensive assets have been particularly important to portfolios in recent years when returns from interest rate securities have been very low. Our preferred defensive alternative is unlisted infrastructure – these assets sit within the Real Assets basket of our asset allocation. Such funds typically have considerable exposure to transport infrastructure such as airports and freight terminals where volumes are strong as conditions normalise aer COVID. Many assets also have ination protection due to CPI-linked pricing, making them particularly attractive at present.We favour some exposure to gold, given its safe-haven characteristics. Gold has made positive returns through every equity bear market over the past three decades. This period has been no dierent, with the gold price recently reaching a record high in $A terms. Over the period ahead, it is likely that, at the margin, we will be allocating a smaller part of portfolios to alternative assets. For growth alternatives, this partly reects the fall in value of public equities that make them more attractive relative to private assets and presents an increasing number of attractive opportunities. For defensive alternatives, the signicant increase in interest rates also means that traditional defensive assets have become relatively more attractive.Tim Rocks – Chief Investment OcerMax Casey – Director & Portfolio Strategist, E&P ResearchRobin Young – Executive Director, E&P ResearchALTERNATIVES
EVANS & PARTNERS21 Roadmap | April 2023NUMBER OF US LISTED COMPANIESSource: Renitiv Datastream, Evans & PartnersGOLD PRICE IN $ASource: Renitiv Datastream, Evans & Partners
22 Roadmap | April 2023EVANS & PARTNERSDisclaimerThis document was prepared by Evans and Partners Pty Ltd (ABN 85 125 338 785, AFSL 318075) (Evans and Partners). Evans and Partners is a wholly owned subsidiary of E&P Financial Group Limited (ABN 54 609 913 457) (E&P Financial Group) and related bodies corporate.This document is not a product of E&P Research (“E&P Research” is a registered business name of Evans and Partners) and is not intended to be a research report (as dened in ASIC Regulatory Guides 79 and 264). Unless otherwise indicated, all views expressed herein are the views of the author and may dier from or conict with those of others within the group. Where a reference is made to a recommendation from an E&P Research Analyst, it is merely a restatement, summary or extract of the most recent E&P Research report relating to the relevant nancial product and a copy of the original report may be obtained from your adviser or from our website at www.eap.com.au/services/research.The information may contain general advice or is factual information and was prepared without taking into account your objectives, nancial situation or needs. Before acting on any advice, you should consider whether the advice is appropriate to you. Seeking professional personal advice is always highly recommended. Where a particular nancial product has been referred to, you should obtain a copy of the relevant product disclosure statement or oer document before making any decision in relation to the nancial product. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The information may contain statements, opinions, projections, forecasts and other material (forward looking statements), based on various assumptions. Those assumptions may or may not prove to be correct. E&P Financial Group, its related entities, ocers, employees, agents, advisors nor any other person make any representation as to the accuracy or likelihood of fullment of the forward-looking statements or any of the assumptions upon which they are based. While the information provided is believed to be accurate E&P Financial Group takes no responsibility in reliance upon this information.The Financial Services Guide of Evans and Partners contains important information about the services we oer, how we and our associates are paid, and any potential conicts of interest that we may have. A copy of the Financial Services Guide can be found at www.evansandpartners.com.au. Please let us know if you would like to receive a hard copy free of charge.