Stanislaus 2030 Child Care Report : simplebooklet.com

The Stanislaus 2030 Investment Blueprint articulated a shared vision for economicprosperity in the County and the key investments necessary to achieve that vision. TheBlueprint identified child care as a critical non-skill barrier to employment. Child care isessential for economic prosperity; investing in child care both creates jobs and enablesworkforce participation by others. Increasing public investment in high-quality [early care and education, (ECE)] … wouldstimulate growth. One impact of more funding would be to generate greater revenues forproviders, sending ripples of increased activity through the region through an economicmultiplier effect. The biggest benefits of ECE expenditures, however, are the increased employment,earnings, and productivity of parents – an unrealized source of potential gains forCalifornia’s economy. (Anna Powell, 2019) However, only 17 percent of working parents in Stanislaus County have access to licensedchild care. The County needs an additional 36,000 spaces for children zero to 12 to meetdemand (Stanislaus Child Development Local Planning Council, 2020). Further, two-thirdsof the prime working-age adults who are sitting out of the labor force are women. InStanislaus County, a substantially higher percentage of prime-age nonworking adults arecaring for children (60 percent), compared to nationally (40 percent) (U.S. Census Bureau,2021). The Home Child Care Business Expansion initiative is the primary strategy Stanislaus2030 is investing in to address this shortage. The long-term goal of the Home Child Care Business Expansion initiative is to turnStanislaus County’s child care deserts into child care oases. In child care deserts, there areone or fewer licensed spaces for every three children who need one. The initiative intendsto dramatically expand the supply of care in high-need ZIP codes, so that parents canchoose from an ample supply of licensed care that is provided by caregivers who earnfamily-sustaining incomes.The Home Child Care Expansion Pilot was funded in the summer of 2023 by StanislausCounty, with federal American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) State and Local Fiscal RecoveryFunds. The objective of the pilot phase was two-fold. The first objective was to test andlearn from an innovative and scalable child care entrepreneurship development program.The second was to identify system-alignment issues critical to the success of initiativeimplementation at scale. 01BACKGROUND Increasing public investment in high-quality [early care and education, (ECE)] …would stimulate growth. One impact of more funding would be to generate greaterrevenues for providers, sending ripples of increased activity through the regionthrough an economic multiplier effect. The biggest benefits of ECE expenditures, however, are the increased employment,earnings, and productivity of parents – an unrealized source of potential gains forCalifornia’s economy. (Anna Powell, 2019)– UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education We aim to turn child care deserts into oases, where parentscan find care and caregivers can earn a good livingPhoto: Center for American Progress

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02This report is divided into four sections. In the first section, we review the context for thepilot, i.e., what we knew about the child care economy at the outset of the pilot. We thenreview an analysis of local data to paint a picture of the child care landscape in StanislausCounty and what it will take to solve the most acute pain points. The second section reflects on the pilot. It explains the rationale for utilizing Nurture’sunique approach, reflects on outcomes and lessons learned, and evaluates our success inpreparing entrepreneurs to run successful home child care businesses.The third section articulates the necessity for systems alignment and outlines emergingservice linkages with other parts of the public sector service delivery ecosystem. It lays outa case for broad and shared ownership for addressing the shortage of licensed care in theCounty. The final section of this report lays out an achievable 10-year implementation plan forclosing the gap in supply of licensed care, improving job quality for caregivers, andenabling greater labor force participation among parents. The report lays out the case for broad and shared responsibilityfor addressing the County’s shortage of licensed child careREPORT SUMMARY Photo: Center for American Progress

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LANDSCAPEANALYSISFundamentals of the Child Care EconomyWhy Home-Based Child CareShortage of Licensed Care in Stanislaus CountyWhere and for Whom is Shortage Most AcuteEmployer and Worker PerspectivesCritical Role of Child Care SubsidiesBroadly Available Subsidies … A Game-ChangerLack of Awareness of Available SubsidiesConcurrent Expansion of Supply and DemandPILOT REFLECTIONSWhat is Nurture?A Solution to Match the Scale of the ProblemDesigning for Marginalized ProspectiveEntrepreneursPilot Experience, Lessons, and ResultsRecruitmentNurture CourseworkState Child Care LicensureBusiness StartsSYSTEMSALIGNMENTPublic Mandate to Support Child CareEntrepreneursPublic Resources to Support Child CareEntrepreneurshipPotential Service LinkagesIMPLEMENTATIONPLANTheory of ChangeActivities, Timeline, OutcomesImplementation BudgetImpact InfographicTABLE OF CONTENTS

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Child care is a market failure. Because most parents cannot afford to pay the true cost ofcare, wages in the sector are artificially depressed, and the supply of care lags demand. Theforces that classical economic theory suggests will bring a market into equilibrium areineffective when a market fails. Caregivers cannot raise prices high enough for child care tobe an attractive profession. Parents cannot decide that, based on price, they do not “need”care. Families who can afford to pay a premium are able to access the limited supply of privatelyprovided quality child care. Those who cannot pay are generally left with unlicensed,informal care, which often equates with lower quality. (The supply of publicly subsidizedquality care, such as Head Start, does not come close to meeting demand.)Children who miss out on quality early learning start kindergarten behind, and often staybehind. Parents who cannot find care, sit out of the workforce, and cannot contribute tothe economic vitality of the region. Child care providers, who play a critical role in preparingthe next generation, struggle to make ends meet. Shoring up the fundamentals of the child care economy requires sweeping changes to thepublic child care system, such as reimbursement rate reform. However, even as advocatesand policymakers wrangle for common ground, we should celebrate a “rose among thethorns” when we find one. Child LANDSCAPE ANALYSIS Fundamentals of the Child Care Economy 04care entrepreneurship is abright spot in an otherwisedysfunctional market.Supporting the development ofhome-based child carebusinesses has the potential tomake a big impact for children,parents, and caregivers. Thisstrategy can increase earningsfor those providing care,improve the quality of care forchildren, and increase supply ofcare so that parents can work. CHILD CARE IS A MARKET FAILURE

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WHY HOME-BASED CHILD CARE … A ROSE AMONG THE THORNSStanislaus County is a “child care desert” where there is one or fewer licensed space for everythree children (Center for American Progress, 2020). The shortage of care, however, is notevenly distributed among children of all ages. Of the 36,000 children in the County who needlicensed care, nearly half, or 17,000, are age 0 – 2 (Stanislaus Child Development LocalPlanning Council, 2020). Infants and toddlers are generally cared for in home-based settings, due to both parentalchoice and the economics for child care centers—the required adult-child ratios make caringfor this age group unprofitable. By focusing efforts on increasing the supply of home-basedcare, we are targeting the child care setting that is most in-demand. Further, child care entrepreneurship provides a unique opportunity for a family-sustainingincome in a sector where the median wage in California is just over $10 per hour, adjusted forcost of living (UC Berkeley Center for the Study of Child Care Employment, 2020).Child care entrepreneurs in the Central Valley who care for children with subsidies and applysound business practices can net, after expenses, $50,000 annually (Nurture, 2022). Finally, licensed child care entrepreneurship has low barriers to entry for those with few otheropportunities for economic security. Neither a high school diploma, legal work authorization,nor the ability to speak English is required to be licensed by the state of California. 05

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For essentially the past two decades, the supply of licensed child care in Stanislaus County hasbeen shrinking. The decline has been most pronounced among home-based child care programs—the settingthat is more likely to meet the needs of families with infants and toddlers, as well as those whowork nontraditional hours, and those who prefer care in a language other than English. The shortage of licensed care is also more pronounced in certain geographies and for certainpopulations. In general, child care deserts, like those in Stanislaus County, tend to be poorer,and more rural and Latinx, compared to places with an adequate supply of licensed care(Center for American Progress, 2020). Shortage of Child Care in Stanislaus County 06Number of Stanislaus County Child Care FacilitiesBy Year, 2002 – 2023769 in 2002320 in 2023Home-Based Child Care Businesses Child Care CentersSource: Stanislaus County Office of Education, 2024144132

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Stanislaus County needs 150 new home child care businesses per year for the next 10 years to address the most acute shortage WHERE AND FOR WHOM IS THE SHORTAGE OF LICENSED CARE MOST ACUTE High-Demand, Low-Income Communities To understand which communities in Stanislaus County have the highest need, we compiledlocal data—with assistance from University of the Pacific researcher Thomas Pogue, Ph.D.—from the Stanislaus County Office of Education, Stanislaus County Workforce Development,and the U.S. Census Bureau. Analyzing data on the shortage of care, numbers of workers, poverty rates, and labor forceparticipation gaps, we identified seven high-demand, low-income ZIP codes. We calculated that addressing the shortage of infant and toddler care in these communitieswill require an additional 6,000 licensed child care spaces. Factoring in capacity limits, thatnumber translates to 1,500 new or expanded businesses. Over the next decade, StanislausCounty will need to incubate 150 new or expanded home child care businesses annually. HIGH-DEMAND, LOW-INCOME COMMUNITIES 07Infant/Toddler Care Shortage, Small HomeLicenseWorkers150% ofPoverty,IndividualsPrime-AgeEmploymentGapZIP CodeLow-IncomeNeighborhood-33426,74716%26%93507Ceres-33027,87822%31%95351Rouse (Modesto)-26831,35915%26%95350Aurora (Modesto)-21226,08719%25%95380W CentralTurlock-13717,81615%29%95358Bret Harte,Shackleford(Modesto)-13714,26215%28%95354NE DowntownModesto-916,03617%33%95386Waterford

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Concurrently, we fielded a survey of workers and potential workers in Stanislaus County, towhich more than 700 individuals responded. The survey, which was primarily shared withworkers via email from their employers, initially yielded very few Spanish speakers. To increase representation of Spanish speakers, we supplemented data collection with in-person surveying of patrons and workers at the Ceres flea market on December 3. The lowvariance among the 50 Spanish in-person survey responses gives us reasonable confidencethat differences between Spanish and English speakers reflect population-level differences. Workers and potential workers reported a high demand for care, particularly Spanishspeakers. Two-thirds of Spanish speakers need care in order to work; three-quartersindicated that they would use care if it were available near their home or employer. In November 2023, we fielded a survey ofStanislaus County employers. Seventy-onefirms, government entities and organizations,representing more than 100,000 workersresponded to the brief survey. The survey showed that absenteeism anddifficulty filling vacancies were—regardless of shift—substantial pain points for employerswith 500 or more employees. EMPLOYER AND WORKER PERSPECTIVES Employer Pain Points Worker and Potential Worker Needs Large employers frequently have difficultyfilling vacancies and/or with absenteeism08English SpanishHigh demand for child care,particularly among Spanish speakers Employee Need for Care and Customer Demand68%76%52%Need Care to WorkWould Use Care if AvailableFrequentLarge Employer Difficulty FillingVacancies and/or Absenteeism59%56%52%48%8:00 AM – 5:00 PMEarly MorningsOvernightLate Night

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The County’s state subsidy fundingincreased 10x in the past five years Research has demonstrated not only that high-quality early education drives individualsuccess in school and in life, but also that it creates better health, social, and economicoutcomes more broadly (Heckman, 2012). Unfortunately, many children cannot accessquality early learning. Because most parents cannot afford the true cost of care, subsidies are necessary tocorrect the market failure. Historically, however, California has provided insufficient fundingto support all those families who are income-eligible for financial assistance. After a decade of largely flat state subsidy funding, policymakers began incrementallyincreasing funding to help parents pay for care beginning in fiscal year 2018-19. The Covid-19 pandemic, however, put a spotlight on the essential role child care plays to a functioningeconomy. Policymakers responded by dramatically increasing the number of families whocould receive a subsidy. In the past five years, subsidy funding in Stanislaus County hasincreased by a factor of 10.While this expanded investment was morethan welcomed and long overdue, without acorresponding investment in the supply ofcare, many parents have been unable to find aprovider with space to care for their child.Currently, there are literally hundreds ofparents in the County who have been approvedfor a child care subsidy but cannot find aprovider to care for their child.Experience from the Stanislaus County Office of Education, which enrolls parents insubsidy programs and helps them find care, illustrates the shortage, particularly for infantsand toddlers. Staff have stories of heroic efforts to help parents with subsidies to find acaregiver. Stanislaus County, like other child care deserts, lags in expending state subsidy dollars. Asof February 2024, more than $10 million of FY 22-23 funding remained unallocated. Nearly$40 million in additional funding for FY 23-24 is available and has yet to be tapped.Strategically expending state subsidy funding is necessary not only for families to accessthe care they need, but also for child care to be a viable career option for entrepreneurs. I was helping a parent who qualified for a child care subsidy to find a space for herinfant. I called 44 child care centers and home-based programs looking forvacancies. Only eight programs had any vacancy whatsoever.– Child Care Navigator, Stanislaus County Office of EducationCritical Role of Child Care Subsidies BROADLY AVAILABLE SUBSIDIES … A GAME-CHANGER 09Stanislaus County Subsidy FundingBy Fiscal Year, 2005 – 2023$4.4M, FY2017-18Source: Stanislaus County Office of Education, 2024$40M, FY2022-23

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Increasing the supply of licensed child care must go hand-in-handwith connecting families with the subsidies to pay for it In the face of historic underfunding, many counties logically opted to preserve their limitedresources for services, rather than marketing; although many families were income-eligible,few would ultimately receive a subsidy. As a result, the current availability of financialassistance to pay for care is an unintentionally well-kept secret. There is a profound lack ofawareness among familiesthat they may qualify for helppaying for child care. Theworker survey, fielded inNovember 2023, showed thatonly one in four English-speakers, and fewer than onein five Spanish-speakers wasaware of financial assistanceavailable to help pay for childcar worker survey, fielded inNovember 2023, showed thatonly one in four English-speakers, and fewer than onein five Spanish-speakers wasaware of financial assistanceavailable to help pay for childcare.I didn’t know that subsidies to help pay for child careexisted. Where do parents have to go to get help? What dothey have to do? Who are the organizations that arepromoting this assistance? They are not at the health fairs.– PromotoraAddressing the lack of awareness among parents is as important as addressing theshortage of care. Further, we must concurrently increase the supply of care and work toenroll more families in the subsidy system. Without subsidies, families in low -income communities cannot pay child care providersenough for the entrepreneur to stay in business. There is a woman in my area who watches five children; she takes four to school andwatches the youngest all day. The mother works six days a week and she can onlypay the provider $40/day for all five children. Why would we help people like her setup a daycare if they can’t earn much income?– Promotora LACK OF AWARENESS OF AVAILABLE SUBSIDIES CONCURRENT EXPANSION OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND 10Aware Unaware Aware Unaware26%English Speakers17%Spanish Speakers

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To illustrate the critical importance of subsidies in making home-based child careentrepreneurship a good job, consider that a licensed child care entrepreneur who caresfor children with subsidies—and who applies sound business administration practices—canearn more than $70,000 annually, and take home, after expenses, approximately $50,000(Nurture, 2022). Informal caregivers who are paid through the subsidy system, by contrast,earn 30 percent less than licensed providers and have stricter limits on the number ofchildren they may care for, further restricting their earning capacity. Informal caregiverspaid directly by parents are constrained by parents’ ability to pay, which in low-incomecommunities, can mean earning $25 – $75 per day. Pragmatically, we must also be mindful of geography as we incubate new child carebusinesses and raise awareness of subsidy availability. Parents generally prefer child carethat is either close to home or to work. A geographic mismatch in supply and demandcould easily derail progress for both parents and child care entrepreneurs. Further, while Stanislaus County has an immediate opportunity to fully expend its allocatedstate subsidy dollars, current funding is insufficient to subsidize all families in the countywho are income-eligible. (As a point of reference, a two-adult, two-child family earning lessthan $95,000 is income-eligible to receive a child care subsidy.)While states rules dictate that families with the lowest income who have been waiting forcare the longest should receive support first, in the absence of a “waiting list,” any income-eligible family will be given a subsidy on a first-come, first-served basis. Efforts to increaseawareness of subsidy availability should ensure that resources are equitably deployed tothose who are furthest from opportunity. Effectiveness and Equity Efforts to increase awareness of subsidies must ensure resourcesare equitably deployed to those furthest from opportunity 11$687 $687$833$833$766$766$766$766Licensed Home Child CareMaximumAnnual Reimbursement$73,000Optimized Enrollment, Monthly Subsidy Payments$583 $536 $481Informal Subsidized CareMaximum Annual Reimbursement$20,000Typical Maximum MonthlySubsidy PaymentsTypical Scenario: Unsubsidized Carein Low-Income Community$1,065 monthly total for 5 childrenInformal CareAnnual Parent Payment$12,480

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Nurture’s sequenced content is divided into courses todeliver highly salient information at the moment whenentrepreneurs need it. The pilot tested the BusinessStart-Up track, which includes the Accelerated StateLicensing and Business Essentials courses. The 12-weektrack takes prospective entrepreneurs through the statelicensing process and prepares them with the essentialbusiness skills needed to launch their business. In each week of the coursework, entrepreneurs complete aLearning Pathway on a particular topic. They watch videos,explore resources, and reflect on how the content they areEARNINGlearning applies to their future business. They make decisions and commitments, whichbecome their business plan, and create essential customized business tools, such as abudget, marketing flyer, curriculum outline, parent contract, etc., via interactive technology.In 2021, with funding from the James Irvine Foundation, and in partnership with MercedCounty Worknet, Nurture engaged in its first human-centered design cycle to developcontent for marginalized entrepreneurs. Nurture began delivering direct services in 2022 withfunding from the Central California Small Business Development Center Network. Building on decades of wisdom and insights from the child care, small business development,and workforce development fields, Nurture’s evolving business content is co-created withentrepreneurs. Its service delivery model is anchored by partnerships with local stakeholders.Nurture’s financial model relies on philanthropic support for design and evaluation of newservices while leveraging public funding to support ongoing service delivery. What is Nurture? Nurture’s mission is to equitably design, build, and scale solutionsthat create financial security for child care entrepreneurs andmeet the demand for care in child care deserts. Nurture is a nonprofit with fiscal sponsorship by Mission AssetFund, a Community Development Financial Institution with deepexpertise in equitably delivering innovative tech-forward services. As a baseline for comparison, approximately 25 new home child care business per year arelicensed in Stanislaus County. At that rate, it would take 60 years to increase the supply tomeet demand in the County’s high-need ZIP codes. To move the needle on the shortage oflicensed care in the region, the solution must match the scale of the problem. Nurture’s approach combines scalable app-based learning content, virtual group support,proactive one-on-one coaching, and access to financial capital, to efficiently prepare diverseentrepreneurs for child care business ownership.A SOLUTION TO MATCH THE SCALE OF THE PROBLEM ENTREPRENEURSHIP DEVELOPMENT PILOT12Cost Structure and ScaleTotal Cost (in millions)Nurture Typical Brick-and-Mortar Training100 200 300 400 5000$.5$0$1$1.5$2$2.5Annual Volume of Entrepreneurs

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Nurture is committed to equitably building and scaling practical solutions that turn child careentrepreneurship into a path to economic security. From Nurture’s inception, it has cultivatedproximity to the communities for whom it advances equity—marginalized women and men,who are often low-income and immigrants, with few other opportunities to earn family-sustaining incomes. Nurture designs with and for aspiring andstruggling entrepreneurs in child care deserts,who have been involved at every step of thehuman-centered design process. All ofNurture’s content and support is available inSpanish and English. A culturally and linguistically trusted coachconvenes cohorts virtually each week to fostershared accountability, support, andpersistence. The coach monitorsentrepreneurs’ progress and quality of workand proactively supports those who needhelp mastering a concept or usingtechnology. Nurture’s technology interface (smartphoneapp, rather than a computer) and userexperience were developed based onpatterns of technology usage among ourtarget audience and refined with ongoinguser feedback and input. Nurture defines success from the vantagepoint of marginalized entrepreneurs.Everything, from recruitment to thetechnology experience and one-on-onesupport, is designed—and redesigned— withthat entrepreneur’s success as its North Star. When entrepreneurs complete the coursework and obtain a California Family Child CareHome License, they receive a $2,500-grant to cover licensing and business start-up expenses.Nurture follows entrepreneurs for a year or more, tracking business starts and vitality, andinviting engagement with additional learning opportunities. Nurture’s technology-forward service design enables it to nimbly expand the number ofentrepreneurs supported without a one-to-one increase in costs. In fact, Nurture’s coststructure becomes more efficient as the volume of entrepreneurs increases. The shortage of licensed child care is a regional problem, to which Nurture is taking a regionalapproach. The team is concurrently working to expand resources in surrounding counties,which will only serve to increase the cost-efficiency of the model. DESIGNING FOR MARGINALIZED PROSPECTIVE ENTREPRENEURS Do low-income and Latinx householdsuse technology? While computer, tablet, and smartphoneusage is nearly ubiquitous among upper-income households in the United States, adigital divide, by both income and race &ethnicity, persists. The gap in technology usage, however, isgreatest for computers and broadbandaccess, not smartphones. For example, 93 percent of those earningmore than $100,000 reported homebroadband access, compared to only 57percent of those earning less than$30,000. Differences by race and ethnicityshow that Black and Latinx adults are lesslikely than White adults to report using acomputer or broadband at home. There were, however, no reported racial orethnic differences in use of smartphones;85 percent of both White and Latinxadults, and 83 percent of Black adults,report using a smartphone.(Pew Research Center, 2021) 13

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A core supposition of Nurture’s service delivery model, which it sought to test in the Pilot,was whether partnerships with trusted community organizations that have relationshipswith marginalized County residents would be sufficient to open doors and providecredibility to engage with our target audience.Beginning in the summer of 2023, Nurture engaged in a range of outreach activities toincrease awareness of the opportunity, primarily among community organizations. Initial activities included: 1. Meetings with staff at community organizations2. Developing and sharing Spanish and English social media collateral3. In-person meeting with potential entrepreneurs at West Modesto Collaborative 4..Targeted door-knocking by North Valley Central Labor Council The key metric of success for the Child Care Entrepreneurship Development Pilot was statelicensure and preparation of 25 entrepreneurs with the essential skills to launch successfulchild care businesses. In addition to the potential direct positive impact of 25 new childcare businesses in the County, however, the Pilot also sought to learn about the challengesand opportunities related to recruiting diverse prospective child care entrepreneurs. Thefollowing sections reflect on experience, lessons, and results related to recruitment,Nurture’s coursework, state licensure, and new business starts. The first wave of outreach resulted inmore English- than Spanish-speakers.Using language as a proxy for economicmarginalization, Nurture decided to testadditional strategies to reach a greaternumber of disconnected potentialentrepreneurs. Pilot Experience, Lessons, and Results RECRUITMENT How did we identify and attract diverse potential entrepreneurs? 14

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Emerging Sketch of NurtureAmbassador Program OUTREACH EXPERIMENTATION December – January: Nurture Graduates as Outreach Ambassadors Early Results Graduates are eager to share their experiences. Simple encouragement to share was sufficientto spur action. Spanish speakers responded particularly well to word-of mouth recruitment.Low-effort referrals surfaced some “natural” ambassadors among graduates. Graduates are quite willing to hang flyers intheir neighborhoods, and even to drive toother ZIP codes, especially when providedsome financial compensation. Pairing a Nurture staff with a graduate attabling events effectively conveyed themessage: “If I can do it, you can too!” Ambassador ProfileSuccessful Nurture graduatesin target ZIP codes What We DidMailed graduates who had launched businesses a postcard and small gift—logoed shoppingbag, pen, or mug—congratulating them and encouraging them to spread the word.Asked several entrepreneurs in target ZIP codes to hang flyers in businesses they frequent. Compensated entrepreneurs a nominal amount for hanging 10 flyers each. Added question to onboarding process, “How did you hear about Nurture?” to capture referrals. Identified graduates to join coach for tabling events, for which they were compensated. Value Proposition Engage in easy outreach activities: Hang flyers at local businessesPost on your own social media Have one-on-one conversations with yourfriends, family, and acquaintances Receive incentives: Regalitos—small gifts of appreciationReferral incentives: Gift cards for successfulreferrals Opportunity to participate in additionalNurture courses and workshops Pipeline to Identify Leaders for Deeper Engagement Paid outreach roles, e.g., representing Nurture at events Leadership roles, e.g., facilitating group Zooms17

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OUTREACH EXPERIMENTATIONJanuary – February: Reaching Parents via Ceres Unified School District The mothers in the community are natural promoters. They are the ones that havethe most need and interest in their children. – Promotora Early Results Text message traffic and web hits spiked after social media collateral were shared via ParentSquare school communication app.For two-week period after flyers and images deployed, 40 percent of all app downloads/newprofiles created were from Ceres ZIP code. More than one-quarter of the 21 entrepreneurs enrolled in the February cohort reside in theCeres target ZIP code 95307.What We DidPresentation to Community Liaisons for each school.Included eye-catching flyer in backpacks of children at two elementary schools, which wereselected based on low socio-economic status of students.Created video reel and static social media collateral, which were shared via Parent Squarefamily communication app.Created new Nurture orientation video series and landing page, and automated, trackable SMSLearn More/Más información message thread capability 18

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Many potential participants voiced initial skepticism—both about the ability to get a child carelicense and the offer of start-up grants. Misperceptions abound regarding the licensingprocess; two of the most common are regarding the need to own one’s home and to havelegal work authorization. As Nurture heard these misperceptions, it adjusted recruitmentmaterials to address common concerns.“I was a little skeptical at first. I’m like, ‘Is it that easy?’ And my friend was like, ‘Yeah,all you have to do is meet once a week, and they walk you through it.’ It’s literallystep-by-step; Nurture gives you what you need.” – Rosa, Program Graduate I have a neighbor, and another a few blocks away, who I told about the program. Isaid, ‘You’re already caring for children, why don’t you get your license?’ And theysaid, ‘No, it’s too difficult.’ I‘ve told them about the program and they don’t believeme. They think I am lying! One said that the licensing office told her that they won’tgive a license to someone who doesn’t have papers.– Josefina, Program GraduateUltimately, one of the most reliable strategies for recruiting participants, especially Spanishspeakers, is a personal referral. To illustrate, in early January 2024, Nurture sent a request tograduates via Nurture’s WhatsApp groups asking them to “Tell your friends and family thatNurture is starting a new cohort on January 10,” and asked them to Like or Share aFacebook post. Power of Personal Testimony WHAT ARE WE LEARNING ABOUT RECRUITMENT? Overcoming Initial Skepticism and Misinformation How January Enrollees Learned About Nurture Multiple Central California Counties Spanish English212Someone known personallyFlyer192163111Someone known personallyStanislaus County Office of EdWorknet (Merced County)Small Business Development CenterIn-Home Supportive ServicesSocial mediaFlyerNurture enrolled 28 participants (from severalCentral Valley counties) within one week. More than85% of the Spanish speakers (and a sizeableminority of English speakers) cited an acquaintance,family, or friend as their introduction to Nurture.

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In the six-month pilot project, Nurture raised sufficient awareness and interest to exceedtargets. In fact, responding to interest, the County provided supplemental funding inNovember to enroll an additional 12 participants in the program. Scaling up a brand-new program in the County, however, will require patience, flexibility,and investment. To attract the necessary number of entrepreneurs to solve the County’schild care shortage, Nurture will need to continue to raise awareness both about child careentrepreneurship in general and about this specific opportunity. Further, to reach the most marginalized community members will take commitment,creativity, and trust. In addition to dispelling myths and making the dollars-and-cents casefor licensed child care entrepreneurship, Nurture must also lean-in and respond to the livedexperiences of those who have learned to expect little from government and formal services.Nurture will need to continue to listen, experiment, and adjust if it is to change the narrativeabout child care entrepreneurship.Strategies must recognize that marginalized people have learned toexpect little from government and formal services You are standing up a brand-new program in the Central Valley. Raising awarenessis going to take, not just time, but a substantial financial investment. – Jorge DeNava, Central Valley Opportunity CenterPatience, Investment, and Narrative Change 20Current NarrativeChild careis a bad jobMy landlordwould neveragreeI don’t knowwhere tostartI can’t getlicensedbecause I’m nothere legallyI don’t havemoney forstart-up costsParents can’t payenough to make itworth itNet up to$50,000You can run a daycare in yourapartmentStep-by-stepguidance tohelp youGet licensedregardless ofimmigrationstatusGrants tocover start-up costsMost parentsqualify for helppaying of careNew Storyline

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LanguageEnglish Spanish64%36%Household Income16%FinanciallyInsecureFinanciallySecure84%A total of 26 entrepreneurs completedNurture’s Business Start-Up courseworkbetween October 2023 and January 2024.Nine additional program participants are ontrack to complete coursework by the end ofMarch 2024. Twenty-four participants whostarted coursework in mid-February willfinish in May 2024. The following demographic analysis reflectsonly those entrepreneurs who completedthe coursework as of February 2024. The pilot effectively targeted entrepreneurs who werefinancially struggling. The majority, 84 percent, ofparticipants had household incomes below the Self-Sufficiency Standard, adjusted for their family size. Initial recruitment efforts resulted in more English-than Spanish-speakers, which is reflected in the higherpercentage of English-speaking program graduates. Of note, by adjusting recruitment tactics, we effectivelyflipped the percentages of Spanish- and English-speakers: 60 percent of those recruited in January andFebruary are Spanish-speakers; 40 percent are English-speakers. NURTURE COURSEWORK Who completed the Business Start-Up courses? (as of February 2024) 21Stanislaus County Participantsby Cohort Completion Month and Language

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Nurture conducted a retrospective pre- andpost-test to evaluate participants’ self-reported knowledge and skill development. Nurture used this research design to reduceresponse shift bias—the tendency forhumans to “not know what we don’t know”and inaccurately assess pre-programknowledge. Most participants reported that they beganthe program with little or no knowledge ofchild care business administration or thelicensing process. Ninety-six percent of participants left theprogram confident that they had sufficientknowledge to launch their child carebusiness. Across all the topics covered in Nurture’sBusiness Start-Up courses, participantsreported the most growth in the areas ofunderstanding business start-up costs,identifying a target market, and utilizing aparent contract and policy handbook. Nurture made no attempt to recruit from specific ZIP codes for the pilot, as it had not yetidentified the seven target communities. Organically, however, Nurture found that 36percent of completers reside in those targeted areas. Did entrepreneurs learn the skills they need to launch successful businesses? 2295355 (NE Modesto)95380 (Turlock, Chemurgic, Cortez, Hatch)95307 (Ceres, Keyes) 95354 (Central Modesto and along Rt 132)95358 (Modesto, Ceres, West Modesto, Parklawn, Bret Harte, Riverdale Park, Twin Rivers)95360 (Newman, Hills Ferry, Timba)95363 (Patterson, Westly, Grayson) Other ZIP codes3526ZIP Code2223Median Knowledge GrowthAll Topics, Self-Assessment Before & After CourseEnough to StartSomeNoneBefore Today

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At the conclusion of the course, each entrepreneur participated in a one-on-one exitinterview with a Nurture coach to ensure knowledge transfer, and for us to gain insightsabout program aspects that might be improved. Participants generally reported feeling“successful” as learners, and confident in their comprehensive understanding of multipledimensions of child care entrepreneurship. I am confident and ready to start my business knowing I have the tools Nurtureprovided. – Maria, Nurture Graduate This program is great, I do best with step-by-step guidance. Nurture really catered tomy learning style. – Kelly, Nurture Graduate I was never really good at schooling, but the way all of the steps and information arelaid out here with Nurture, I felt comfortable I was learning everything I should. – Denisse, Nurture Graduate A few people told me I could never get my license, I still cannot believe how easy theprocess has been. With Nurture, I feel secure; they have my back. – Josefina, Nurture Graduate I am ready to serve my community, and, at the same time support my household,with all of the business practices I have learned. – Araceli, Nurture Graduate 23Average Knowledge GrowthSelf-Assessment Before & After CourseEnough to StartSomeNoneBefore Course Today

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To establish a baseline, Nurture conducted in-depth interviews with four licensed homechild care providers who had been operating for less than three years. Interviewees wererecruited in partnership with the Stanislaus County Office of Education and werecompensated for their time. Across the board, entrepreneurs in the comparison group were less confident that theyhad sufficient business knowledge to run their business. The gap was most pronounced related to financial aspects of business administration—budgeting and monitoring finances and recordkeeping, as well as understanding who theirtarget customers were. Comparison Group 24As of the end of February, 80 percent of participants hadreceived their state license. The remainder have not yet receivedtheir license for a variety of reasons, including delays withbackground check clearance, financial hardship, unsupportivefamily members, and personal preference. Nurture expects thatthe overwhelming majority of graduates will complete thelicensing process within one to two months. STATE CHILD CARE LICENSURE Did entrepreneurs achieve state licensure? Self-Assessment of Business KnowledgeNurture Graduates & Comparison GroupEnough to Start/Runmy BusinessNoneBudgeting & MonitoringFinancesRecordkeeping Target Market Marketing &AttractingCustomersChildDevelopmentComparison Group (n=4)Nurture Graduates (n=19)

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The licensing process was more efficient and less stressful compared to the experience ofnavigating the process without Nurture’s support.Among those who followed Nurture’s schedule for submitting their license application to theCommunity Care Licensing agency, the total average length time to state licensure (includingthe steps prior to submitting application) was 12 weeks—the same duration as Nurture’scoursework. Some highly motivated participants were licensed in as few as six or nine weeks.The timeline for those whose licensing process spanned the winter holidays was approximatelytwo weeks longer.Not all participants completed the process as efficiently, however. Some chose to delaysubmitting their application for personal reasons—aware that they might be foregoing theopportunity to receive a start-up grant. Still others, who have household members with(cleared or expunged) criminal records, continue to await resolution by the state’s CareProvider Management Bureau. In contrast with the comparison group, Nurture’s approach was both shorter in duration andsimpler. Comparison group reflections mirrored comments from other child careentrepreneurs who have shared their stories. They painted a picture of a cumbersome processthat is both time-consuming and difficult to navigate. One Nurture participant who started the licensing process independently before she joined aNurture cohort reflected on the value she perceived of Nurture’s support through the licensingprocess. Was the licensing process more efficient? The licensing process took a very long time.– Sara, Comparison Group From the beginning to the day I got my license was exactly one year.– Teresa, Comparison Group It was really hard!– Yolanda, Comparison Group I wish I had Nurture when I started getting my license. My process took such a longtime, and I really had no idea what I was doing. With the app, everything you need isright here, at your fingertips. – Adriana, Nurture Graduate2584average44shortest114longestLicensing Process DurationAmong Participants Who Followed Nurture Scheduledaysdaysdays

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Licensing agency staffingThe Department of Social Services Community Care Licensing (CCL) Regional Offices arestretched thin. For example, there is one home inspector for the entire region from Modesto toFresno, with little staffing redundancy. Data from CCL show that, over the past three years, theagency has decreased the average time it takes to process an application by 5 percent.However, as we significantly increase the number of licensing applicants, wait times forapplication processing will likely lengthen.Obtaining a license to operate a Family Child Care Home is necessarily a bureaucratic process.However, building relationships with the human beings who run that process reduces timeand potential frustration. Nurture encourages each applicant to proactively communicate withCommunity Care Licensing staff to ensure their application is on track, or address issues, if itisn’t. Nurture also developed direct relationships with Regional Office staff. Further, itdeveloped and vetted an application coversheet and checklist for Nurture entrepreneurs toclearly convey to Community Care Licensing staff any pertinent details about their application. Structural Issues WHAT DID WE LEARN ABOUT THE CHILD CARE STATE LICENSING PROCESS?Proactive Communication Helps 26Already, we are hearing concerning anecdotes ofsignificantly longer wait-times to schedule the requiredhome inspection. Nurture applicants who started thelicensing process in late summer 2023 were able toschedule inspections within a few weeks of completing allother requirements. By contrast, a participant whoseapplication had been complete since late December 2023was told by the Regional Office in mid-February that shewould not be able to even schedule her inspection untilmid- to late-March. Need for consistency and modernizationApplicants faced a range of solvable barriers to efficientlycompleting the licensing process. Barriers includeinconsistent guidance, inconsistent Spanish-languagetranslation, and out-of-date technology. As an example of inconsistent guidance, official licensingforms explicitly contradict the practices of Regional Officestaff, leading to unnecessary delays. The licensingapplication form and instructions (279A) clearly state—inCAPITALIZED, underlined, and italicized font—thatapplicants should not submit Landlord Notification andConsent forms to the Regional Office. Yet, applications areregularly rejected because those forms were not includedin applicants’ submissions.

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Official correspondence from Regional Office staff to those who have submitted theirapplications in Spanish is regularly sent in English, creating confusion and the need for Nurturestaff to translate. The Department of Social Services is aware of these issues. It affirmed itscommitment to equal access to services and information, regardless of language, and notedthat consistently providing multilingual materials will be a continuous effort. Applicants are also faced with technology that does not consistently execute its basicfunctions. The state requires applicants to participate in a licensing orientation, either online orin-person. The user interface to register for the online orientation malfunctions for a substantialminority of applicants, requiring intervention and advocacy by Nurture staff, usually overmultiple days, to resolve. (Spanish-language in-person orientations are not consistently offeredat a frequency for that setting to be a viable alternative to the online orientation.) Background clearanceCalifornia’s background check process works efficiently for those with spotless records. TheDepartment of Social Services reports a seven-day average for clearance of those with nocriminal history, administrative actions, or child abuse flags. However, for any applicant or otheradult in the household who has anything on their record—even if has been expunged orcleared—the clearance process takes many months. While the Department of Social Services’website states that clearance for those with a criminal record will take up to 75 days, Nurtureparticipant experience has been significantly longer.LandlordsThe Keeping Kids Close to Home Act (SB 234), which took effect in 2020, expanded housingprotections for renters and homeowners seeking to operate home-based child care. Manylandlords and housing providers, however, are unaware of the policy change.To illustrate, among an initial pool of 35 Nurture entrepreneurs, seven experienced pushbackfrom their landlords—including the landlord asserting that the tenant could not operate a childcare, threatening eviction, or threatening to raise rents. We empowered these entrepreneurs with resources from the Child Care Law Center. Thoseentrepreneurs whose landlords were unpersuaded, we connected directly to Law Centeradvocates to evaluate the merits of each situation. Unfortunately, however, severalentrepreneurs chose to drop-out of the program rather than jeopardize their tenuous housingsituation. 27

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Child care businesses startedto date will generate $4.6million in economic activity inthe first year alone Given the short duration of the pilot, it is premature to evaluate success in terms of businessstarts; typically, it takes six to 12 months to launch a new small business, depending onbusiness type. However, by the beginning of March, 17 of the licensed graduates had launchedtheir child care businesses and opened their doors to families. These businesses translate to 136 newpermanent licensed child care spaces (or68 infant/toddler spaces). This additionalcapacity will generate $4.6 million ineconomic activity in the first year alone(Bipartisan Policy Center, 2021). Thiseconomic impact derives from greaterlabor force participation by parents whocan enter the workforce or work more,reduced worker turnover, higherproductivity, and higher tax revenues. An additional nine entrepreneurs are ontrack to open businesses within the nextfew months, which will result in a total of208 permanent licensed spaces. The 31 current training participants havethe potential to create nearly 250additional licensed spaces by summer.BUSINESS STARTS 28Pilot ResultsAs of March 6, 2024In TrainingCourseCourseCompleteLicensed In Business

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Before TodayAfter learning about Nurture via a friend’s Facebook post, Nicole joined the first cohort thatwas offered as part of the Stanislaus 2030 pilot. She jumped into the coursework, applyingeverything she was learning to her emerging business. For example, after learning about thedemographics of her potential customers, she was able to define a target market—bothSpanish and English speakers who live in her neighborhood and are likely to qualify for childcare subsidies.Nicole, Child Care Entrepreneur, Turlock, CANURTURE GRADUATE PROFILE It took Nicole three months to compete thelicensing process and Nurture’s coursework,at which point she qualified for a $2,500 start-up grant. Nicole shared, “I was very blessed tobe able to get a lot of the things I neededfrom my church, but I still needed sleepingmats, an outdoor playset, and to stock up oncleaning supplies.” The grant allowed her tomake those investments. By Thanksgiving,she was ready to start enrolling children. Amanda Silva, who was interviewed as part ofa recent story in The Modesto Bee, was thefirst family Nicole enrolled. Amanda, who hadleft the workforce after the birth of her thirdchild, was able to return to work because shefound care at Tiny Titans, Nicole’s child carebusiness. Nicole has eight children enrolled—ranging from 6 months to 4 years—who attend a mix offull- and part-time. Some parents pay for care via a subsidy, while others pay out-of-pocket.As someone who grew up in the foster care system, Nicole has always wanted to care forothers. She says, “I feel like that’s where we step in, we can work alongside parents andcommunicate in a community to raise the next generation.” 29EnoughSomeNoneNicole’s Knowledge Growth Self-Assessment, Before & After CourseLicensingStart-Up CostsMarketing & Attracting CustomersTarget MarketBudgeting & Monitoring FinancesRecordkeepingChild DevelopmentParent CommunicationLearning Environment

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Since the mid-1980s, the Child Care Initiative Project (CCIP)has provided dedicated state funding to increase capacityand improve quality in home-based child care. The amountof funding, however, is no match for the scale of the shortageof licensed care. In FY 2023-24, CCIP was funded at $5 millionstatewide. Of that total, the Department of Social Servicesallocated approximately $70,000 to Stanislaus County. By comparison, in FY 2022-23 Stanislaus County WorkforceDevelopment spent approximately $5 million on training foradults, including entrepreneurship training.Even funding sources that are limited to certain populationsare orders-of-magnitude greater than child care-specificfunding. For example, welfare-to-work training funding FY2022-23 was more than $600,000. Training support targetedto farmworkers, as another example, totaled $3,000,000. Funding to support small businesses—training, coachingand other supports—totaled just over $250,000.For illustrative purposes, allocating just 10 percent ofavailable resources to child care entrepreneurship wouldfund creation of 150 new business annually. Although child care entrepreneurship sits at thenexus of several public systems, there has until nowbeen little effort to marshal disparate resources inservice of a common goal. A core tenet of Nurture’s approach is to embed childcare entrepreneurship development into existingsystems—both to reach potential entrepreneurs andto maximize access to public financial resources. In addition to child care resource & referral, numeroussystems, including small business development,workforce development, safety net programs,farmworker supports, public education, andcommunity colleges, all arguably have a publicmandate to support child care entrepreneurship. SYSTEMS ALIGNMENT Public Mandate to Support Child Care Entrepreneurs PUBLIC RESOURCES TO SUPPORT CHILD CARE ENTREPRENEURSHIP 30Job Training & EntrepreneurshipFunding Available in Stanislaus CountyFarmworkersupportsSafety netprogramsChild careresource &referralWorkforcedevelopmentSmallbusinessdevelopmentPubliceducationCommunitycolleges

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Throughout the duration of the pilot, we explored a range of public funding sources, andwill continue this investigation as part of the implementation phase. For example, a newarea of inquiry is adult education funding, which is delivered via the Stanislaus CountyOffice of Education (SCOE) and local school districts. We recognize, however, that workforce development funding—both for the generalpopulation and farmworkers—is critical to scaling child care entrepreneurship. To accessthe core pool of workforce funding, Nurture’s coursework must be approved by theCalifornia Employment Development Department. We have worked collaboratively, over several months, with Stanislaus County WorkforceDevelopment and SCOE’s Educational Options Division to apply for inclusion on the State’sEligible Training Provider List under SCOE’s auspices. Once Nurture’s training is approved by the state, we will develop a coordinatedrecruitment and service process to provide child care entrepreneurship training toparticipants who are enrolled as clients with Workforce Development and Central ValleyOpportunity Center. PATHS TO FUNDING AT SCALE 31

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In addition to financial resources todirectly support child care businessdevelopment, local public andnonprofit agencies also have servicerelationships with those who may besituationally inclined toward childcare entrepreneurship.We identified five target groupsaround which to pursue servicelinkages: informal caregivers, parentsof school-age children, welfare-to-work parents, agricultural workers,and community college students.We identified anchor institutions thatcurrently serve these groups and arelaying the groundwork for symbioticservice relationships with theseagencies and institutions.In the implementation phase, weintend to further develop these andother opportunities to recruit likelychild care entrepreneurs in a mannerthat simultaneously enablesrecruitment partners to meet theirown organizational mandates.POTENTIAL SERVICE LINKAGES AudienceAgency or InstitutionFamily, Friend &Neighbor CaregiversCounty Office of EducationCommunity Services AgencyChoices for ChildrenParents of ElementarySchool ChildrenIndividual School DistrictsWelfare-to-WorkParticipantsCommunity Services AgencyAgricultural WorkersCentral Valley Opportunity CenterCommunity CollegeStudentsModesto Junior CollegeWelfare-to-Work ParentsOften single moms, required to work orparticipate in education or trainingFamily, Friends & NeighborsInformal caregivers paid directly by parentsor through the subsidy systemParents of Schoolage ChildrenOut of the workforce to care for familyAgricultural WorkersLooking for alternative work for themselvesor their spousesCommunity College StudentsOften younger, seeking a good job or career32

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Implementation OpportunityIf a substantial number of Welfare-to-Work participants are interested in becominglicensed child care businesses, the Community Services Agency is open to furtherexploration to assess whether CalWORKs funding could directly support training costs.During the pandemic, more than half of Stanislaus County’s4,000 CalWORKs recipients were deemed to have a “goodcause” exemption from work participation requirements. InMay 2023, the state lifted the COVID-19 Public HealthEmergency, at which point counties had 60 days, or “as soonas is administratively feasible,” to reengage participants. As ofthe fourth quarter of 2023, the Stanislaus County CommunityServices Agency had a caseload of more than 2,000participants yet to reengage.A significant barrier to reengagement in a work activity (e.g.,training, education, or a job) is lack of child care. CalWORKsparticipants are eligible for a subsidy to pay for care; however,the shortage of licensed care means that they may be unableto find a child care provider with whom to use that subsidy.To test whether Welfare-to-Workparticipants would be interested inbecoming licensed child care entrepreneurs,the Community Services Agency enteredinto a memorandum of understanding withNurture to enable information-sharing aboutparticipants. Nurture’s coursework countstoward Welfare-to-Work participationrequirements, which enables participants toleverage CalWORKs funding to cover costsassociated with licensing.We are in the early stages of testing outreachto Welfare-to-Work participants. To date, wehave shared the opportunity with CalWORKsmanagers. The Community Services Agencyis including information about Nurture onvideo boards in customer service lobbies, andwe plan to coordinate a mailing to Welfare-to-Work participants with young children.The Agency has also invited Nurture to shareinformation at an agency-wide staff fair inMay 2024.EMERGING SERVICE LINKAGE—COMMUNITY SERVICES AGENCY 33

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percent lower than licensed home child care. Unlicensed providers who care for “private pay”children receive whatever they negotiate with families. Anecdotally, we know providers in low-income communities are paid as little as $25/day.Over the years, Child & Family Services (CFS) has tried a variety of strategies to increaseengagement with the unlicensed providers it pays through the subsidy system—both toencourage licensure, as well as to encourage participation in quality-improvement opportunities.Generally, however, providers have not taken advantage of these opportunities. In partnershipwith CFS, we have begun to dive more deeply to find out why. We have had initial discussions tosurface working assumptions about informal caregivers’ perceived lack of interest.We have plans to recruit a range of informal caregivers—both those who participate in the subsidysystem and those who do not—for a listening session. Based on what we learn, we will prototypeand test messages and recruitment strategies, with the goal of increasing interest in becominglicensed.Nurture GraduatesIn every county, the child care resource and referral agency and subsidy administrators (which, inStanislaus County, are CFS, Choices for Children, and the Community Services Agency) are thebackbone of the public child care system. Child & Family Services refers interested licenseapplicants to Nurture, and Nurture refers participants to CFS because of its role at the nexus ofchild care supply and demand. As with any large agency, however, it is sometimes confusing forcustomers to find the “right door” to the services they seek. To facilitate a strong connection toboth the subsidy system and to the wealth of professional development opportunities CFS offers,Nurture has begun inviting CFS staff to join the final Zoom session with graduates.Implementation OpportunityWe have laid a strong foundation during the pilot to continue deepening coordination betweenNurture and SCOE services offered by CFS. Doing so will improve every aspect of this collaborativeventure—from recruitment to licensing to supports for graduates.Subsidy-Eligible ParentsImplementation OpportunityAs described in the Landscape Analysis, concurrently expanding the supply of licensed care andthe enrollment of parents in the child care subsidy system is essential. In the implementationphase, CFS is committed to engaging in a collaborative design sprint to learn from and withparents and providers, rapidly ideating and testing prototyped concepts, and designing andimplementing refined solutions.Family, Friend, and Neighbor CaregiversIn the wake of the Great Recession, many home-based child care providers losttheir businesses along their homes to foreclosure. More than a decade later, thetotal number of Family Child Care Homes is still well below pre-recession levels.Informal care—often referred to as family, friend, and neighbor, or unlicensed care—replaced some, but by no means all, of the “supply.”Legally, unlicensed providers may care for the children of one family in addition totheir own relations. If they care for children with subsidies, they are paid at a rate 3034EMERGING SERVICE LINKAGES— COUNTY OFFICE OF EDUCATION

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For four weeks, in January and February, we partnered to test outreach to parents ofschoolage children. Efforts included educating school community liaisons, targetingtwo low-socio-economic status (SES) elementary schools with flyers (1,000+ children),and digital outreach via Parent Square parent communication app (10,000+ children).More than 50 parents either sent a text or scanned a QR code to learn more. Of the 16parents downloaded the app, six are enrolled in the February cohort, and severalmore are continuing to explore child care entrepreneurship in the Nurture app. Reflecting with CUSD and family resource center leadership, we concluded that therecruitment results warranted further engagement; CUSD has the infrastructure inplace to efficiently reach large numbers of parents who are situationally inclinedtoward home child care entrepreneurship. Implementation OpportunitiesRefresh recruitment collateral materials and retest outreach for mid-May cohort,focusing on two other low-SES elementary schools in the District.Follow Ceres child care entrepreneurs through Nurture course and offer opportunitiesto develop into Nurture Ambassadors post-graduation. Intentionally involveAmbassadors in school-based family resources center supports. EMERGING SERVICE LINKAGE—SCHOOL DISTRICTSParents of Schoolage Children Approximately 13,000 children, pre-K – 12, are enrolled in Ceres UnifiedSchool District (CUSD), which is in one of the high-demand, low-incomeZIP codes targeted for implementation. The Ceres Healthy StartProgram is a school-based family resource center that comprehensivelyserves all students and families living within CUSD’s attendance area. Itsmission is to strengthen families’ ability to access services and resourcesthat support health, wellness, and education of their children, ultimately promoting the sustainability of a healthy community. Replicate in other school districtsthatserve high-demand, low-income neighborhoods. Beginexploration with Turlock UnifiedSchool District, which has a similarframework forengaging andsupporting families.35

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EMERGING SERVICE LINKAGE—CENTRAL VALLEY OPPORTUNITY CENTERAgricultural WorkersCentral Valley Opportunity Center (CVOC) is the federal- and state-designated WorkforceInnovation and Opportunity Act farmworker-funded agency, serving hundreds offarmworker households annually in Stanislaus County. Nurture is a mission-aligned andtrusted partner of CVOC, filling a gap by providing child care entrepreneurial support toCVOC constituents. In fall of 2023, CVOC plannedimplementation of FarmworkerResource Fairs, funded by federal, state,and county dollars. To date, CVOC hashosted two well-attended Fairs— inGrayson and Patterson. More than 200farmworkers attended the first; over 150attended the second. Three more areplanned—in Hughson, Riverbank andSouth Modesto—for the coming months. Nurture was one of 12 partnerorganizations invited to participate in thefairs. At each event, Nurture engagedwith an average of 150 farmworkers. TheFairs provided an opportunity to have in-depth conversations with potentialentrepreneurs, answer questions, andaddress common misperceptions abouthome child care entrepreneurship. Implementation OpportunityNurture has been collaborating withWorkforce Development and theStanislaus County Office of Education toapply to be included on the state’sEligible Training Provider List, which is aprerequisite for accessing trainingresources through both WorkforceDevelopment and CVOC. If and when that process is successful,CVOC has committed to continuing torecruit from among its constituency andto underwriting the cost of training for upto 20 individuals annually who are eligiblefor CVOC services.36

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EMERGING SERVICE LINKAGE—MODESTO JUNIOR COLLEGE EMERGING SERVICE LINKAGE—VALLEY SIERRASMALL BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT CENTERCommunity College StudentsTen percent of Modesto Junior College’s (MJC) approximately 15,000 students are declared ChildDevelopment majors. In addition, MJC’s English for Life and Work program includes an innovativecourse that teaches English language skills specifically for those who work in an early learningenvironment. We have had initial conversations with the leadership of the Child Development Department, inwhich we recognized our philosophical and pedagogical alignment and shared commitment toequity. As an initial step, MJC has committed to recruit for a mid-May cohort from among theirChild Development and English language learner students. Implementation OpportunityWe identified a number of ideas for further exploration in the implementation phase, including:Creating a Business & Child Care certificate offered by MJC thatleverages Nurture’s content and app platform. Development ofthe certificate would be a one- to two-year process. Developing a MJC contextualized learning Child Care BusinessMath course that would satisfy General Ed requirements.Completion of the math general education requirement isoften a barrier to attaining an associate degree.Entrepreneurship Support ServicesThe Central California Small Business Development Center (SBDC) Network, which covers 14counties including Stanislaus, has been funding Nurture entrepreneurs since 2022. Valley Sierra, amember of the SBDC Network, provides direct support to entrepreneurs in Stanislaus County. Whereas the Network’s funding can offset some of the overall cost of Nurture’s training, ValleySierra’s resources can support one-on-one and group support for Nurture graduates. As of January, Nurture is now established as a Valley Sierra business consultant. Our first foray intocollaboration will be to support adoption of free financial recordkeeping software amonggraduates. Some Nurture entrepreneurs, particularly those who are less comfortable withtechnology, are reluctant to adopt digital recordkeeping practices. Yet, doing so is ultimately acritical strategy for efficiently running a profitable business. Nurture can provide augmentedsupport to those entrepreneurs who need it with Valley Sierra’s support. Implementation Opportunity We will continue to identify content areaswhere Nurture graduates could benefitfrom enhanced and/or one-on-one supportto ensure we continue to scaffold theirdevelopment as successful business owners. 37

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ALIGNLeverage existing, and new public & private resourcesCoordinate with conventional & unconventional alliesIntentionally build child care supply and demandLEARNUtilize human-centered design cycles to improveeffectivenessRigorously evaluate approach to demonstrateeffectivenessADVOCATEShare pain-points and effective strategies withpolicymakersEQUITABLYSCALEDefine success with equity and scale as a double-bottom-lineInvestigate strategies to further improve child care jobqualityIMPLEMENTATION NORTH STARSIn this section, we lay out an achievable 10-year implementation plan for closing the gap inthe supply of licensed care, improving job quality for child care entrepreneurs, andenabling greater labor force participation among parents. The graphic, at right,articulates our NorthStars, which will guideimplementation. Below, we present atheory of change,followed by a map ofactivities, timeline andoutcomes, and proposedimplementation budgetnarrative and 10-yearcapital stack. We end the report withan infographicsummarizing the toplineimpacts of an investment. Theory of change IMPLEMENTATION PLAN38

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Activities, Timeline, Outcomes ActivitiesYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 510-YearCumulativeOutcomesIncubate new businessesRecruit, support, graduate 100 – 150/year1501501251151001,000 newchild carebusinesses, 6,000 – 8,000spacesDevelop Business Expansion courseDesign & test course to deepenbusiness acumen, navigate licensingexpansion, connect to financial capitalImplement course: recruit, support, graduate 25 – 50 per yearcourse designed253550500 child carebusinessesexpand, 3,000 – 4,000spacesSubsidy system alignment design sprintUnderstand user perspective, prototypeand test solutions, implement effectivestrategiesDeploy 100% of subsidy fundingdesignsprint$40Mstatesubsidiesutilized$40Mstatesubsidies utilized $40Mstate subsidies utilized $40Mstate subsidies utilizedSubsidiesmaximized,aligned withexpandingsupplyAnnual implementation funding raisedQualify Nurture on state EligibleTraining Provider List to accessworkforce and farmworker fundsDemonstrate interest to establishrationale for CalWORKs fundingDevelop and seed donor fundApply for and win competitivegovernment and philanthropic grantsMaintain/increase public funding:workforce, farmworker, small business $1Mraised$1.1Mraised$.95Mraised$.93Mraised$.9Mraised$9 millioninvested tosustain childcare businessdevelopmentEvaluate Nurture outcomesThird-party evaluator rigorouslyassesses Nurture modelImpact &effectivenessjustifiesinvestmentState policy advocacyIncrease subsidy fundingStrengthen landlord notification ofprovider rightsIncrease Community Care LicensingresourcesSupportive processes,budget andregulatorypractices Explore strategies to improve job qualityAccess to benefits, retirement savingsHomeownershipChild careentrepreneursbuild wealth39

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Proposed Implementation BudgetResources required to accomplish the activities and achieve the outcomes described in thisplan total approximately $9 million over 10 years. The average annual investment is $1million. We assume, however, that annual costs will start slightly higher and decline overthe decade, driven by several factors.First, we assume front-loaded County and City of Modesto American Rescue Plan Act(ARPA) funding in Years 1 and 2. This timing, which is consistent with federal spend-downrequirements, will jumpstart the 10-year investment. Second, we have built essentialsystems alignment and program expansion into the early years of the timeline to reap thegreatest benefits. Third, we assume that efficiency will increase over time, especially as weshift gears from focusing exclusively on new start-ups to also supporting businessexpansion. The proposed capital stack would leverage ARPA funding as a jumping-off point. However,success will require that we tap permanent public funding sources to anchor the initiativefor the long-run. We will also need to compete for funding—from foundations andgovernment sources, as well as make the case to employers and individual donors. We areconfident in the value proposition of the Implementation Plan and also recognize thatraising these funds will require significant effort. Costs beyond Year 5 and resource assumptions beyond Year 2 are estimates only. 40Potential 10-Year Capital StackHome Child Care Business Expansion Initiative

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ADVISORY COMMITTEEORGANIZATIONINDIVIDUALAspiranetBrianna Ligon, Mark TianoCenter for Human ServicesKaylee Brown, Paul Corona, Tamberly StoneCentral California SBDC NetworkKurtis ClarkCentral Valley Opportunity CenterJorge De NavaChoices for ChildrenElizabeth AndreiniDebriefNancy MartinezFirst 5 StanislausShameram KarimLearning QuestYvonne DownsModesto Junior CollegeJessica Brennan, Gisele FloresNorth Valley Labor FederationWill KellyNurtureJennifer BrooksOpportunity StanislausBrianna TaylorParent Resource CenterSusan BeasleyProject SentinelAna AndradeSierra VistaKarina Franco, Mayra LanderosStanislaus 2030AmandaHughesStanislaus County Community Services AgencyEd Cuellar, Richard Daniels, Rosalia EsguerraStanislaus County Office of EducationRonda Coito, Veronica Garcia, Heather Haubrich, LisaHenry, Tony Jordan, Elisha Nunez, Roberto Ponce Stanislaus County Workforce DevelopmentSara ReddStanislaus Cradle to CareerMegan Lowery, Mary Padraza, Ninfa SmithUnited Way of StanislausKeristopher SeryaniValley First Credit UnionKathryn DavisValley Sierra SBDCGerman ZavalzaWest Modesto Community CollaborativeBlanca Marin, Reyna Perales, Perfecto Muñoz 43

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STRATEGYINSIGHTPartner info sessionsInfo may not reach frontline staffSocial mediaLow-effort, effective only for EnglishIn-depth orientation for orgs.Promising, follow-up is necessaryStand-alone info sessionTie to events turning-out target audienceTargeted door-knockingHighly targeted, though high-effortPromotora networkNeed intermediary to convene Flea market tablingNeeds to be regular to make impactElem. school engagementEffective targeting and engagementNurture ambassadorsGraduates are eager to share experiencesFarmworker fairImproved effectiveness with repetitionEFFECTIVENESSEFFORTtargeted door-knockingflea market tablingelementary school engagementsocial mediaflyers in targeted ZIPsNurture ambassadorspromotora networktabling at community eventspartner info sessionstand-alone community eventsin-depth sessions with partnersHIGH EFFECTIVENESS, LOW EFFORTLOW EFFECTIVENESS, HIGH EFFORTOptimally, outreach strategiesshould balance effort (cost)with effectiveness, which, inour definition, means thestrategy recruits those furthestfrom opportunity (equity), andrecruits sufficient numbers ofentrepreneurs to achieveimplementation plan targets(scale). Midway through the pilot, weassessed outreach strategiestried to date. The figure, atright, maps those strategies interms of effort andeffectiveness. (For this report,we added strategies to thefigure that were tried after thisassessment was initiallyconducted.) We named and elevatedinsights about the waysstrategies could be adjusted toincrease effectiveness. Thechart, at right, summarizesthose insights.In addition to the strategiestested in the pilot, theimplementation plan builds inadditional outreach strategiesto explore. These strategiesinclude a Spanish-languageradio ad-buy, earned Spanish-language media, and buildingan intentional recruitmentpipeline to Nurture fromModesto Junior College. 44ANALYSIS OF OUTREACH STRATEGIES

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In fall 2023, we interviewed four family child care providers who had been in business for less than threeyears to get a baseline understanding of what it was like for them to get licensed and start a home-based child care business in Stanislaus County. Three of the four had been in business for less than ayear-and-a-half; the median time since receiving a state license was 16.5 months. Three of the four hadhousehold income below the Self-Sufficiency Standard in the most recent tax year, with the fourth justabove that threshold. Because interviewees were recruited via the Stanislaus County Office of Education,we can assume that they are connected to the County’s established child care subsidy and resource &referral systems. Interviewees reflected on their experience getting licensed by the California Department of SocialServices. Their comments, which are consistent with anecdotal comments from other child careentrepreneurs, paint a picture of a bureaucratic system that is both time-consuming and difficult tonavigate. Interviewees accepted subsidies as well as direct payment from families. Their median monthly revenuewas $6,250, or $1,100 per child, which equates to per child revenue that is higher than the County’ssubsidy reimbursement rate. We asked about their experience with the subsidy system. Their comments focused on the length oftime it takes for families to enroll and for providers to be reimbursed for care. Note that it is possible thatinterviewees’ comments reflect experiences with the system in the past few years, rather than thepresent experience of providers currently participating in the subsidy system. We asked interviewees to assess their child care business acumen. They were confident in their ability toeffectively communicate with, recruit, and bill/collect payments from families. Although their median child enrollment was 66 percent of licensed capacity, three believed they werefully enrolled, suggesting a need for tools that provide greater visibility into this aspect of businessadministration. Both their self-assessment and the limited tactics reported for financial management suggest there isalso a clear need for guidance and tools to enable them to budget for and monitor their revenue andexpenses. The plus side is that I automatically get paid. The downside is that it takes them avery long time to enroll families, which is not okay for the families, since they don’tknow if they qualify and will have to pay out of pocket. It is pretty stressful. – LauraGetting paid every six weeks is really hard to work with. – SaraCommunication from parents’ subsidy specialist was the worst. Long timelines. Lackof communication. [For example,] a call was never made to a parent that time wascoming for recertification. … One program didn’t pay me for 3 months. I will neverrecommend them to anyone. – TeresaThe licensing process took a very long time. – SaraFrom the beginning to the day I got my license was exactly one year. – TeresaIt was really hard! – Yolanda45COMPARISON GROUP INTERVIEWS SUMMARY

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ADVICE ON OUTREACH STRATEGIES Target existing groups of promotoras. Make presentations to each of the 13 communitiesMeeting online is better than in-personElementary SchoolsMISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT REQUIREMENTS & OPPORTUNITIES FOR HOME CHILD CARE Need for DocumentationThere is fear of engaging with formal systems when you are undocumented. Once clarified, promotoras saw home child care entrepreneurship as good opportunity forundocumented people in their community. Home/Space RequirementsThere is a lack of understanding about the requirements to be a licensed child care provider. There is an assumption that one needs a dedicated space, which has to be set-up like center.LACK OF AWARENESS OF SUBSIDIES AND R&R SERVICES I didn’t know that subsidies to help pay for child care existed. Where do parents have to go toget help? What do they have to do? Who are the organizations that are promoting thisassistance? They are not at the health fairs.It would be good if there were a directory of daycares. The best thing would be if people could be supported to start a daycare and we, aspromotoras, could promote a list of licensed programs with parents. When we are going to look for people to care for our children, it is going to be word-of-mouth. There are people that I work with that provide informal care. They need help in growing andresponding to a child who is fighting with someone. In October 2023, we met with one of the promotora networks at Digital Nest. The followingare key themes that emerged from the meeting. 46THEMES OF CONVERSATION WITH PROMOTORASEarning PotentialThere is a women in my area who watches 5 children; she takes 4 to school and watches theyoungest all day. The mother works 6 days a week and she can only pay $40/day for all fivechildren. Why would we help them set up a day care if they can’t earn much income.As promotoras, we know a lot or people. People ask us questions about everything becausethe see us as knowledgeable. Maybe we could share this info with the promotora groups.The mothers in the community are natural promoters. They are the ones that have the mostneed and interest in their children.

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Stanislaus 2030 and Nurture fielded an employer survey from October 31 to December 6,2023. Seventy-one employers responded, representing more than 100,000 employees. Thesurvey, which was shared by email, included five questions: 2. Does your firm/organization have difficultyfilling vacancies or experience absenteeism? 3. Do most of your employees knowabout financial assistance availableto help them pay for child care? 4. Is your firm/organization interested in helpingemployees address their child care needs?FrequentYes No Not sure56%Employee Knowledge of Subsidies41%4%Yes Maybe47EMPLOYER SURVEYYes No5. May we follow up with you if wehave further questions? 68%32%1. How many employees does yourfirm or organization employ?Firm Size91615462011,001 – 5,0005,000+501 – 1,000251 – 50051 – 25011 – 501 – 10Large Employer Difficulty FillingVacancies and/or Absenteeism59%56%52%48%8:00 AM – 5:00 PMEarly MorningsOvernightLate NightEmployer Interest in HelpingEmployees Address Child Care Needs20%58%46%35%36%33%38%33%49%25%Increase awarenessSubsidize costsExpand nearby supplyRestructure shiftsProvide onsite care

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From October 31 to December 6, 2023, Stanislaus 2030 and Nurture fielded a survey ofworkers and potential workers. 730 individuals responded. Initially, the primary means ofreaching workers was via an email from their employers. Due to the low response rateamong Spanish speakers, we augmented data collection with in-person surveying. OnDecember 3, we collected 50 responses from Spanish speakers at the Ceres flea market.Low variance among the Spanish in-person survey responses gives us reasonableconfidence that differences between Spanish and English speakers reflect population-leveldifferences. The survey included five questions: Do you need child care during working hours? 1.If there were a child care provider near your home or work, would you use it? 2.How often does not having child care prevent you/your spouse from going to work? 3.What is your ZIP code? 4.What is the name of your employer? (optional) 5.English Spanish67%020406080100120953079538295355953509536395351953809532695367953589535495361other953569535795368953869536095366953379533495206953159531695301937359533695348953879538893737953299520595320953709537795324Employee ZIP Code1615462048WORKER SURVEYEmployee Need for Care and Customer Demand68%76%52%Need Care to Work Would Use Care if Available

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Anna Powell, S. T. (2019). Investing in Early Care and Education: The Economic Benefits for California. Berkeley: UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education. Ben Wolters, A. B. (2021). The Economic Impact of America’s Child Care Gap. Washington: Bipartisan Policy Center. Center for American Progress. (2020). Child Care Deserts Stanislaus County. Retrieved from https://childcaredeserts.org/?lat=37.60759079965581&lng=-120.93719399999998&zm=9.564064354966124&lyr=ccpovertyJames Heckman (2012). Invest in early childhood development: Reduce deficits, strengthen the economy. Retrieved from The Heckman Equation: https://heckmanequation.org/ Jennifer Brooks. (2022). Family Child Care Income Calculator. Oakland: Nurture. Pew Research Center. (2021, June 22). Home broadband adoption, computer ownership vary by race,ethnicity in the U.S. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/07/16/home-broadband-adoption-computer-ownership-vary-by-race-ethnicity-in-the-u-s/ Stanislaus Child Development Local Planning Council. (2020). 2020 Child Care Needs Assessment. Modesto. U.S. Census Bureau. (2021). American Community Survey, Employment Status (S2301). Retrieved fromhttps://data.census.gov/tablet=Employment:Employment+and+Labor+Force+Status&g=050XX00US06047,06077,06099&d=ACS+5-Year+Estimates+Subject+Tables&tid=ACSST5Y2021.S2301 UC Berkeley Center for the Study of Child Care Employment. (2020). Appendix-Table-2.2_2020-Index.pdf. Berkleley, California, United States: UC Berkeley. Retrieved fromhttps://cscce.berkeley.edu/workforce-index-2020/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/06/Appendix-Table-2.2_2020-Index.pdf 49WORKS CITEDPhoto: Center for American Progress

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This report was written by Jennifer Brooks, Founder and CEO of Nurture, forStanislaus 2030 in spring 2024. The author and Stanislaus 2030 Executive Director, Amanda Hughes, would like toexpress our deepest gratitude to the members of the advisory committee for theircommitment to equitably addressing the critical shortage of child care inStanislaus County. Their invaluable insights and collaborative spirit have helpedshape the comprehensive approach outlined in this report, ensuring that itaddresses the diverse needs of our community. A special acknowledgment is due to the Stanislaus County Office of EducationChildren & Family Services for sharing their expertise, experience, and data on thepublic child care system. Their commitment to advancing quality child care andwillingness to share vital information have greatly enriched the quality and depth ofthis report. The collaborative efforts between our team and the Child & FamilyServices have been pivotal in crafting evidence-based recommendations that aimto make a lasting impact on the child care landscape. 50ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSPhoto: Center for American Progress

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