MONTHLY INSIGHTSThe past quarter was dominated by global interest ratecuts, macroeconomic data, Chinese stimulus, the MiddleEast conflict and positive sentiment toward South Africa.All these affected domestic and global markets in variousways. N E W S L E T T E RDOMINANT THEMES ONMARKETSManaging Director and Portfolio Manager at Sequoia Capital ManagementJB SmithThe FED delivered a 50-basis point cut, which led to arally in global bond prices, with the Bloomberg GlobalGovernment Bond Index ending the quarter with an 8%return in US Dollars.TOPIC 01Dominant themes onmarketsTOPIC 03TOPIC 02Economic Report Why is it essentialto have a Last Willand Testament?We have formally entered the rate-cutting cycle. The USFederal Reserve (FED) delivered its first rate cut. Thedecision to cut was not a surprise, but the magnitude ofthe cut was a surprise to markets.
Locally, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) followed suit with a 25-basis point cut. The combination ofthis cut and positive sentiment toward South Africa contributed to the stellar performance of South AfricaBonds, which passed a gain of 10.5% (in Rands) for the quarter. China announced of a substantial stimulus package, in fact the largest since 2021. The effect of this is clearin the 16.5% performance of the Chinese equity market for the quarter. Geopolitics has the potential to influence markets as we enter the last quarter of the year. Tensions in theMiddle East have shown no signs of easing. In fact, the conflict in the Middle East has escalated toLebanon and may spread further. The US presidential election is now just a month away. The outcome willdepend on a few key swing states where voters aren’t traditionally aligned to one party. It is difficult toforecast the economic or market impact of the election, even if one could predict the outcome of theelection. The expectation is for more rate cuts both in the US and in SA. How this will affect and influence marketswill depend on the macroeconomic data accompanying these rate cuts. Rate cuts in a stable economicenvironment could support equity markets, but cuts in an environment of growth uncertainty or recessionfears would lead to volatility. MONTHLY INSIGHTS OCTOBER 2024Sequoia Capital Management is an authorised financial services provider, FSP 49393
We believe that a strong Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) is critical to the success of your investmentstrategy. The SAA of a portfolio is a long-term strategy that sets target weights for various asset classesbased on factors such as risk tolerance, time horizon, and investment objectives. This approach enablesinvestors to achieve their financial goals by balancing risk and returns through a diversified portfolio.We manage a diverse range of portfolios, each with its own specific mandate, investment objective, andexpected outcome. We believe that no single manager consistently outperforms across all periods andmarket conditions. Different managers employ various investment styles and alpha sources, which excel indifferent periods and environments. Therefore, we manage all our portfolios using a multi-managementapproach.MONTHLY INSIGHTS OCTOBER 2024Sequoia Capital Management is an authorised financial services provider, FSP 49393REVIEW OF PORTFOLIO STRATEGICASSET ALLOCATIONSFor this reason, we review our Strategic Asset Allocations for all our portfolios every few years to ensurethey remain robust and capable of meeting long-term investment objectives. In light of this, we havereviewed the Strategic Asset Allocations for the multi-asset portfolios we manage.The following summary outlines the current and revised (New) strategic asset allocations for the variousportfolio mandates we manage, categorized by their risk levels.
FINANCIAL MARKETINDICATORS (ZAR)MONTHLY INSIGHTS OCTOBER 2024Sequoia Capital Management is an authorised financial services provider, FSP 49393
Signals that the South African economic performance is improvingcontinue to appear. The lack of loadshedding, the decrease in the reporate, foreign capital inflows, momentum in manufacturing and retail, thestronger Rand and lower consumer and producer inflation all pointtowards a strong economic recovery. ECONOMIC REPORTSOUTH AFRICASouth African economic growth prospects for 2024 and 2025 remain optimistic. The new GNU is still ontrack, with more certainties emerging every day, such as private-public partnerships (PPPs). This is aprojection offered by SA’s prominent CEOs, who committed to mobilising financial resources and lendingtheir expertise to the government over the coming years to help halt the country’s economic slide.The result of the improvement in these variables contributes towardsequity markets continuing to improve strongly. The ALSI on the JSE hasgrown by 6.4% during September and is already 14,2% higher since thebeginning of the year. The Rand exchange rate improved another 40cents against the US$ last month. Dr. Chris HarmseConsulting Economist atSequoia Capital ManagementOrganised businesses (comprising about 150 CEOs) pledged their support to the government, offeringexpertise and money (mobilising R250 million) to fix the country’s problems in three key areas: electricity,transport and logistics, and crime and corruption.These initiatives are boosted by the prospects of a further 1.5% decrease in the repo rate by the MPC overthe next nine months, a much lower inflation rate as the Rand exchange rate continues to appreciate andproducer prices, which are now rising by only 2.8%, filters through to real economic activity. MONTHLY INSIGHTS OCTOBER 2024Sequoia Capital Management is an authorised financial services provider, FSP 49393However, the uncertainty surrounding the escalating war in the MiddleEast may put a brake on economic recovery both globally anddomestically. Rising tensions in the Middle East add new uncertainties tothe global economy even as policymakers congratulate themselves onhaving steered it out of high inflation without triggering a recession. South Africa’s retail sales rose by 2% over a year ago in July 2024, following a 4.1% surge in the previousmonth, marking the fifth consecutive month of increases. Manufacturing production rose 1.7% YoY in July2024, recovering from a revised 5.5% decline in the prior month and more than an expected 0.7% increase.At a meeting on 1 October 2024, the CEOs pledged to launch Phase Two of the partnership with thegovernment, saying they would focus on permanently ending Eskom’s rolling blackouts, aiding Transnet torun trains and ports, and helping law enforcement agencies investigate and prosecute complex corruption-related crimes.
Fitch Ratings has revised the US growth forecast for 2024 to 2.5% from 2.1% in June. Deloitte’s economicresearch team indicates that the US economy remains fundamentally strong despite concerns surroundingthe durability of growth and interest rate policy. While real gross domestic product growth slowed in Q1 ofthis year, growth rebounded to a strong 3.0% in Q2. All available evidence suggests policymakers mayhave managed to bring inflation under control without causing a recession.The expected quicker pace of Fed interest rate cuts should allow households to take on more debt andsupport continued growth in consumer spending. Coupled with elevated government consumption, fears ofan immediate US recession are evaporating. EUROPE AND THE UKDespite a mild recovery in UK GDP growth during the start of the year it is expected to have slowed againin the second half of 2024. The economy is forecasted to grow by 1% this year overall. UK inflation shouldfall below 2% in September but is set to rise again over the coming months, peaking at 3% in early 2025.The Bank of England is expected to be more careful towards easing monetary policy compared to the Fedand the ECB but still gradually cut its repo rate from the current 5.0% to 3.5% by the end of 2025.EMERGING MARKETSThe world Bank’s outlook for the Chinese economyin July 2024 predicted that China’s GDP growth isprojected at 4.8 percent in 2024, an upwardrevision of 0.3 percentage points from theDecember 2023 forecast. The modification is based on expected strongerexports and the impact of policy measures tosupport the property market and higher fiscalspending. In numerous EMs, particularly in Latin America,policy uncertainty could keep risk premiumselevated, reducing the magnitude of capital flowsthose economies receive relative to past Fedeasing cycles. MONTHLY INSIGHTS OCTOBER 2024Sequoia Capital Management is an authorised financial services provider, FSP 49393The European economic recovery continued in Q2 of 2024 with a 0.3% QoQ advancement. Consumerexpenditure remains the primary factor supporting this growth. The European Central Bank announced itsfirst rate cut of 0.25 percentage points in June, as anticipated. Unfortunately, the latest inflation figuresworry, as headline inflation increased in July by 2.6%, compared to 2.5% in June. Core inflation remainedat 2.9%.The latest research report by S&P Global showsthat: “monetary policy easing by the US FederalReserve, as long as it is accompanied by anorderly softening of the US economy, is positivefor emerging markets (EMs), especially ones withstrong economic fundamentals, such as those inSoutheast Asia.”USA“Downside risks include a delay in the propertymarket recovery beyond 2024, persistentdeflationary pressures, slower-than-expectedglobal growth, and increased trade tensions.”Downside risks for the EM growth outlook entailthe inferences of the US election on trade andfiscal policy, a more rapid-than-expectedslowdown in the US, ongoing economic weaknessin China, a further escalation of the Middle Eastconflict, and persistent uncertainty over domesticpolicies in several EMs.
Colette ForbesBusiness Operations and Data Support atSequoia Capital ManagementWhy is it essential to have aLast Will and Testament?MONTHLY INSIGHTS OCTOBER 2024Sequoia Capital Management is an authorised financial services provider, FSP 49393Having a last Will and Testament ensures that yourassets and personal possessions are dividedamong the individuals of your own choosing. It's essential to be clear about who will receive yourassets, who will be the legal guardian for yourchildren who are under the age of 18, and who willmanage your estate as the executor. You canappoint multiple individuals, such as your spouseand your Attorney, to ensure that your legalmatters are resolved fairly.Before drafting or revising a will, it is imperative toconsider additional specific personal details. Forinstance, in the event of a divorce, it is necessaryto revise and update the beneficiaries of your Will.Failure to do so may result in a former spousebeing eligible to inherit assets as per the last validWill recognised by the legal system, which will bethe Will with the latest date.The legal requirements for creating a valid will canbe complicated. While any mentally competentindividual over the age of 16 can create a valid will,the signing requirements in the Wills Act 7 of 1953are technical and easy to misunderstand. It's agood idea to have a professional, such as afinancial advisor or Attorney, help with the draftingprocess. This way, they can ensure that all thelegal requirements are met.Before drafting a will, you must think carefullyabout how and to whom your possessions will bedistributed after your death. Your wishes willbecome final in this document, so they must beclear and well thought out.Without a valid last Will and Testament setting thisout, your estate won't necessarily be bequeathedaccording to how you would have liked. Yourwishes about who should inherit what will becarried out according to what you stipulated in yourvalid and up-to-date last Will and Testament. The basic requirements for creating a willare as follows:A will must be in writing, which meansplain handwritten or typed documents arenot accepted. Oral wills or audio andvideo recordings are also invalid.The Will must be signed by the testator oneach page and at the end of thedocument (last page).The person creating the Will (testator)should sign it in the presence of 2 or morewitnesses. These witnesses must be atleast 14 years old and capable ofproviding testimony in court. Thewitnesses don't need to know thecontents of the Will; they need to witnessthe fact that it is the testator's Will.Importantly, no witness may inheritanything based on the Will.The Will must be signed at the end of thedocument by the witnesses in thepresence of the testator and each other,not on each page.Though optional, including a date on theWill may be helpful. In the event that thetestator leaves behind multiple Wills, thiswill aid in determining the most recent andfinal one.
MONTHLY INSIGHTS OCTOBER 2024Sequoia Capital Management is an authorised financial services provider, FSP 49393What happens if you do notleave a last Will and Testament?Suppose you pass away without a valid will. In thatcase, your estate will be distributed according tothe Intestate Succession Act, 1987 (Act 81 of1987), which means that it will be divided amongyour surviving spouse, children, parents, orsiblings.In a marriage in a community of property, one-halfof the estate belongs to the surviving spouse and,although it forms part of the joint estate, will notdevolve according to the rules of intestatesuccession. Aside from your assets and possessionsnot being divided between individuals ofyour choosing, the other challenges of anintestate include:Appointing an appropriate executor, whomay not align with your chosenpreferences while you are alive, is alengthy process.Additional fees and costs - these canaccumulate and quickly become asubstantial amount.If your remaining loved ones do notclearly understand your wishes,confusion, frustration, or even conflict mayarise.Without a will, you cannot establish a trustto receive assets or cash on behalf ofminors, and the cash will end up going tothe Guardian's Fund.Without a will, you are unable to appoint aguardian for your minor children in theevent that both parents pass awaysimultaneously.If you don't have a will, you won't be ableto distribute your offshore assets.All deceased estates will be distributed bythe Intestate Succession Act. This meansthat the beneficiaries, in order of priority,are:The spouse of the deceased.The descendants of the deceased.The parents of the deceased (Only if thedeceased died without surviving spouseor descendants).The siblings of the deceased (Only if oneor both parents are predeceased) TheIntestate Succession Act should be readin such a way that it can accommodatecases where the deceased was ahusband in a polygamous customaryunion.When the deceased left only spouses andno descendants, the wives will inherit theestate in equal shares.When the deceased leaves spouses anddescendants, the spouses anddescendants will inherit the estate inequal shares, butEach wife should inherit at leastR250,000.When the estate is not large enough foreach wife to inherit R250,000, thespouses will inherit the estate in equalshares, while the descendants will notreceive anything.Once a will is established and complies with legalrequirements, it must be securely stored along withall the necessary documents pertaining to eachmentioned asset, including investments, lifeinsurance policies, and property.You can securely store your Will and the requireddocuments at home, with your Financial Manager,or at your Attorney's office. They simply need to bein a safe place where they can be accessed if youneed to make changes or in the event of yourdeath.Keeping your Will up to date will ensure that yourassets and possessions are distributed accordingto your wishes.