N O V E M B E R 1 4 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 4Trade Memo - 4th Quarter 2024Welcome!As we approach year-end, the investment landscape presentsboth unique opportunities and risks, shaped by recenteconomic shifts, the outcomes of the latest presidentialelection, and emerging signals from central banks.Understanding the strategy and key takeaways in this quarter'strade memo can provide insight into how we’re positioningportfolios to capture growth and manage risk in a post-electionmarket. This update highlights strategic adjustments—including increasing our focus on U.S. stocks and makingtactical allocations—while clarifying the rationale behind thesemoves in a clear, actionable way.In a climate where economic indicators show resilience withoutrunaway inflation, our strategy carefully balances seizingopportunities with maintaining safeguards against volatility.Historically, markets following a presidential election oftenexperience a recalibration, and we’re optimizing our portfolioto take advantage of these conditions as clarity replacesuncertainty. Spending a few minutes with this memo offers youa clearer view of how these strategic shifts align with yourfinancial goals, making it an essential read as we navigate thisfinal quarter together and prepare for a potentially rewardingyear-end rally.Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing PartnerPrivate Wealth Manager
Strategic asset allocationbegins with a broadbenchmark and tilts torewarded sources of returnsto reflect our long-termviewsSTART WITH A LONG-TERMSTRATEGYADAPT TO CHANGINGMARKET CONDITIONSINVESTMENT VEHICLESELECTIONHELP PROTECT THEPORTFOLIOOur approach to portfolio constructionInvestment ProcessTactical asset allocationtakes a disciplined approachto seek opportunities ordownside protection basedon short-term and medium-term investment views Select appropriateinvestment vehicles that areefficient, cost effective, andaccurately express targetedexposures across both activeand passive vehicles todiversify sources of return.Measure and monitor modalportfolio risks using AladdinTechnology to betterunderstand portfolio riskand manage investmentswithin a risk budget of 300bps. 1 2 34Investing GuidingPrinciplesYour fixed incomeshouldn’t be ‘fixed’Managing duration and credit riskModerate U.S.equity overweightIn benchmarkExposure to targetedfactors, styles andsectorsSeek to controlactive riskProvide consistent outcomesDisciplined tradingscheduleAd-hoc flexibility+/- 5% max deviationFor equities from benchmarkN O V E M B E R 1 4 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 4
123We’re adding a 3% increase to stocks,bringing our overweight position to 4%,as we anticipate a possible “relief rally” asthe market reacts to post-election clarity.We’re favoring U.S. stocks withstrong recent performance overinternational stocks.WHAT ARE WE DOING TODAY?Boost in Stocks:U.S. Focused:We’re adding a small tactical allocation togold, shifting some of our fixed incomeholdings, driven by continued centralbank purchases and gold’s appeal as astable investment.Gold Allocation:4In bond-heavy portfolios, we’reincreasing exposure to credit risk forpotential gains.Credit Risk Increase:S E P T E M B E R 1 2 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 3
Our firm typically rebalances yourretirement accounts quarterly, unless wehave unusual market conditions. If youhave non-retirement accounts, werebalance at least twice a year, dependingon your tax situation. Here are the keytakeaways from this quarters rebalancing:With the U.S. presidential electionbehind us, markets are showing renewedconfidence, and many business decisionsthat were on hold are set to moveforward. This post-election momentumcould create favorable conditions for“risk assets” like stocks, especially duringthe traditionally strong November-December period. As Warren Buffettfamously observed, “In the businessworld, the rearview mirror is alwaysclearer than the windshield.” In thisspirit, we’re focusing less on specificsectors and instead positioning for abroad rally, expecting that marketuncertainty will ease as companies andinvestors move forward with postponedplans.Trade RationalIn light of these conditions, a smallallocation to gold also makes sense. Despitetypically challenging headwinds—like highinterest rates and a strong dollar—gold hasperformed well this year. With ongoingpurchases by global central banks and anincreasingly complex geopoliticalenvironment, gold remains an appealingdiversifier within our stock and bond mix.N O V E M B E R 1 4 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 4Our outlook is supported by encouragingeconomic trends, such as strongconsumer spending and moderateinflation rates. Additionally, a recentsoftening in hiring and wage growthsuggests that inflation pressures arelikely contained. This balance may givethe Federal Reserve room to ease rates,moving them closer to a neutral stance,which would provide further support forthe economy.
PerformanceStocks and bonds bounced back from early-September concerns about a slowdown,following a disappointing jobs report. TheFederal Reserve’s surprising 0.50% rate cutreassured markets, sparking a positive shiftin sentiment. Longer-term bonds, inparticular, saw gains as rates declined. InChina, government stimulus aimed atreaching their 5% GDP target fueled a rallyin Chinese and broader Emerging Marketstocks. Ongoing Middle East tensions andthe shadow of the U.S. election have keptsome investors cautious, though.All of our models delivered positive returnsin absolute terms this past month, thoughthey slightly lagged their benchmarks. Ourconservative approach leading into theelection impacted returns, along with arecent shift toward leaders in the AI andsemiconductor industries, which took atemporary pause. Meanwhile, fixed incomeinvestments, especially longer-term U.S.treasuries and convertible bonds,outperformed, and our macro strategywithin alternatives also exceededexpectations.How we can help!As we conclude this quarter’s update, we’re excited to look ahead and proactively adapt yourportfolio to capture opportunities in the remainder of this year and prepare for what liesahead next year. With the recent election cycle behind us, we can navigate the market withgreater clarity and renewed focus, aligning our strategies with the evolving economic andpolicy environment. This allows us to optimize our approach with confidence, bringing youthe best of our insights and experience as we position your portfolio for continued success.Here’s how we can help:Personalized Review Sessions: We’re available to review your financial plan in light of recentmarket shifts. Together, we’ll discuss any changes in your goals, revisit your risk tolerance,and ensure your portfolio is optimally aligned for what lies ahead.N O V E M B E R 1 4 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 4
Transparent Updates on Our Strategy: Ourteam is committed to keeping you informed.We’ll explain the reasoning behind each ofour portfolio decisions, providing context onmarket trends, economic conditions, andwhat we anticipate moving into the newyear.Setting Realistic Expectations: Knowingwhat to expect helps bring peace of mind,even in times of market uncertainty. We’lldiscuss our outlook for the upcomingmonths and year, so you feel confident in thestrategy guiding your investments.Access to Our Team’s Expertise: We’re herewhenever you need us. Whether you havequestions about your current allocation,want to explore new investmentopportunities, or simply need a clearperspective on the market, we’re just a callor email away.Our priority is your financial success, andwe’re here to make sure you feel informed,confident, and supported every step of theway. Let’s work together to finish this yearstrong and set a clear path forward for 2025.Thank you for trusting us with your financialjourney.How we can help!Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing Partner, Private Wealth ManagerOffice - 585-623-5982Mobile - 585-200-2320E-Mail - kelly@lynnleighco.comLynnLeigh & Company - A Registered Investment AdvisorThis information is provided by LynnLeigh & Co. for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information fromsources believed to be reliable – LynnLeigh& Co. advisors cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. The information presentedhere is not specific to any individual’s personal circumstances. To the extent that thismaterial concerns tax matters, it is not intended or written to beused, and cannot be used, by a taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed by law. Each taxpayershould seek independentadvice from a tax professional based on his or her individual circumstances. The information in these materials may change at any time and withoutnotice. Pastperformance is not a guarantee of future returns.N O V E M B E R 1 4 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 4
As we conclude this quarter’s update, we’reexcited to look ahead and proactively adaptyour portfolio to capture opportunities inthe remainder of this year and prepare forwhat lies ahead next year. With the recentelection cycle behind us, we can navigate themarket with greater clarity and renewedfocus, aligning our strategies with theevolving economic and policy environment.This allows us to optimize our approach withconfidence, bringing you the best of ourinsights and experience as we position yourportfolio for continued success.Here’s how we can help:Personalized Review Sessions: We’reavailable to review your financial plan inlight of recent market shifts. Together, we’lldiscuss any changes in your goals, revisityour risk tolerance, and ensure yourportfolio is optimally aligned for what liesahead.Transparent Updates on Our Strategy: Ourteam is committed to keeping you informed.We’ll explain the reasoning behind each ofour portfolio decisions, providing context onmarket trends, economic conditions, andwhat we anticipate moving into the newyear.Setting Realistic Expectations: Knowingwhat to expect helps bring peace of mind,even in times of market uncertainty. We’lldiscuss our outlook for the upcomingmonths and year, so you feel confident in thestrategy guiding your investments.Access to Our Team’s Expertise: We’re herewhenever you need us. Whether you havequestions about your current allocation,want to explore new investmentopportunities, or simply need a clearperspective on the market, we’re just a callor email away.Our priority is your financial success, andwe’re here to make sure you feel informed,confident, and supported every step of theway. Let’s work together to finish this yearstrong and set a clear path forward for 2025.Thank you for trusting us with your financialjourney.What’s Next?Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing Partner, Private Wealth ManagerOffice - 585-623-5982Mobile - 585-200-2320E-Mail - kelly@lynnleighco.comN O V E M B E R 1 4 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 4