N O V E M B E R 1 , 2 0 2 3 | I S S U E N O . 4Trade Memo - 4th Quarter 2023Welcome!Welcome to our quarterly trade memo! We are excited toshare with you the latest updates on investment portfoliochanges and market conditions. With the constant shifts inthe global economy, it is crucial for us to keep a close eye onmarket trends and make necessary adjustments to ensureour investments continue to thrive. In this memo, we will dive deep into the current state of themarket and provide insights on the changes we have madeto our investment portfolio. We hope this information willgive you a better understanding of our strategy and help youmake informed decisions about your investments. So, let'sget started! Let's dive into the latest developments in themarket and how they have impacted our investmentdecisions. Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing PartnerPrivate Wealth Manager
N O V E M B E R 1 , 2 0 2 3 | I S S U E N O . 4Our firm typically rebalancesyour retirement accountsquarterly, unless we haveunusual market conditions. Ifyou have non-retirementaccounts, we rebalance at leasttwice a year, depending on yourtax situation. Here are the keytakeaways from this quartersrebalancing:September 2023 proved to be a haunting month forthe markets, as the historically nightmarishreputation held true once again. Stock and bondprices dropped significantly, with interest ratesrising at an alarming pace. The US Treasury yieldreached above 4.6% and 30-year mortgages soared tonew highs above 7%. On top of that, the US dollarcontinued its winning streak, fueled by speculationsof the Fed stirring the pot even more and potentiallytightening monetary policy for longer than expected.In Europe, stocks briefly rallied after the EuropeanCentral Bank announced a "dovish" rate hike.However, this turned out to be more of a trick than atreat, as prices eventually slipped lower. Evenemerging markets felt the pain, as concerns overChina's growth, real estate troubles, and geopoliticalissues sent ripples through Asia. Beloved tech andgrowth stocks with an AI focus struggled, as risinginterest rates dampened their prospects. PerformanceOn a positive note, energy names benefited from oil'squarterly surge of 20%.Despite most models outperforming theirbenchmarks, all major asset classes had a roughmonth. However, we had positioned ourselves quitewell to weather the storm. We reduced exposure totech stocks, held a smaller portion of emergingmarkets, and increased our holdings of short-termUS bonds over the summer. These strategic moveshelped protect our models from more severe losses.Market neutral and macro strategies, as well asfloating rate treasuries, contributed positively toperformance. On the other hand, US large cap stocks,growth-oriented international developed marketstocks, and broad US bond exposure were the primarydetractors for the month.
12345seeking to capitalize on the recentmarket pullback and position forpotential upside surprises in U.S.economic growth and corporateearnings.expressing a high-convictionpreference for the largest capstocks in the U.S. that appearto have attractive growthprofilesWHAT ARE WE DOING TODAY?Move two-percent overweight stocksand cautiously “risk on”,Lean further into U.S., growth andtechnology overweights,moving underweightinternational DevelopedMarket (DM) stocks due toweakening corporate earningssignals and more pronounceddownside vulnerability topotential rising energy pricesand geopolitical turmoilDecrease exposure to Europe,increasing exposure to acarveout of EM countries withthe most attractive earningsprospects (like Taiwan) whilealso seeking to insulate theportfolio from a litany ofmounting headwinds in ChinaPrune underweight to EmergingMarkets (EM),using these relative defensivepositions to fund our rotationinto equities while alsolightening up on duration inan attempt to increase yield Reduce alloction to alternatives,
N O V E M B E R 1 , 2 0 2 3 | I S S U E N O . 4It's understandable that the future can be uncertain and intimidating, but reflecting on our pastexperiences can give us the reassurance we need to move forward. We recognize that the current situationmay be challenging, but we want to assure you that we're here to support you whenever you need us!We empathize with the overwhelming nature of navigating markets and the financial unknown. That's whywe prioritize working with a limited number of families, so that our team can give each client thepersonalized attention and assistance they deserve. Let's discuss any concerns or inquiries you havetogether!As always, please feel free to reach out to us if you would like to talk to us about your personal situation. Happy Thanksgiving, How can we help?Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing Partner, Private Wealth ManagerOffice - 585-623-5982Mobile - 585-200-2320E-Mail - kelly@lynnleighco.com