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LynnLeigh Q3 2024 Trade Memo - K

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S E P T E M B E R 1 2 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 3Trade Memo - 3nd Quarter 2024Welcome!As we move through the second half of 2024, we know themarkets have been keeping everyone on their toes. Withelection season approaching and several shifts in theeconomic landscape, it’s a good time to pause, reassess,and adjust. At LynnLeigh & Company, our top priority isensuring your portfolio is prepared for whatever maycome, while keeping an eye on future opportunities.In this memo, we want to share the steps we're taking tohelp protect your investments from potential volatility inthe coming months. While the headlines may seemdaunting, rest assured that we are actively managing yourportfolio with a steady hand, making strategicadjustments that reflect both the challenges andopportunities ahead.As always, we’re here for you, and if you have anyquestions or want to discuss these changes in more detail,don’t hesitate to reach out. We look forward to navigatingthese times together, as we continue to focus on yourfinancial success.Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing PartnerPrivate Wealth Manager

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Strategic asset allocationbegins with a broadbenchmark and tilts torewarded sources of returnsto reflect our long-termviewsSTART WITH A LONG-TERMSTRATEGYADAPT TO CHANGINGMARKET CONDITIONSINVESTMENT VEHICLESELECTIONHELP PROTECT THEPORTFOLIOOur approach to portfolio constructionInvestment ProcessTactical asset allocationtakes a disciplined approachto seek opportunities ordownside protection basedon short-term and medium-term investment views Select appropriateinvestment vehicles that areefficient, cost effective, andaccurately express targetedexposures across both activeand passive vehicles todiversify sources of return.Measure and monitor modalportfolio risks using AladdinTechnology to betterunderstand portfolio riskand manage investmentswithin a risk budget of 300bps. 1 2 34Investing GuidingPrinciplesYour fixed incomeshouldn’t be fixedManaging duration and credit riskModerate U.S.equity overweightIn benchmarkExposure to targetedfactors, styles andsectorsSeek to controlactive riskProvide consistent outcomesDisciplined tradingscheduleAd-hoc flexibility+/- 5% max deviationFor equities from benchmarkS E P T E M B E R 1 2 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 3

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Our firm typically rebalances yourretirement accounts quarterly, unless wehave unusual market conditions. If youhave non-retirement accounts, werebalance at least twice a year, dependingon your tax situation. Here are the keytakeaways from this quarters rebalancing:As Warren Buffett once said, “Be fearful whenothers are greedy and greedy when others arefearful.” With the momentum behind manyof this year’s successful market trendsbeginning to fade, we’re taking a proactiveapproach by reducing our equity overweightby 3%. This move allows us to steer throughthe historically volatile waters of electionseason with more agility.Our tactical adjustment is driven by severalkey factors. First, cooling corporateearnings trends suggest a potentialmoderation in the earnings-fueled marketleadership of the past 18 months.Additionally, the period from mid-September through early November inelection years tends to be more volatile,increasing the chances of sudden marketdips.The uncertainty surrounding this year'selection further complicates the outlook.With the sharp divide between the parties’policies and the expectation of a close race,many businesses are delaying majorinvestments until after election night,creating a market environment vulnerable toliquidity issues and fluctuations—especiallyif the results are delayed or contested.Trade RationalRecent shifts in market behavior have alsocaught our attention. The calm rise in mega-cap stocks earlier this year has beeninterrupted by sharp selloffs and quickrebounds, indicating that the market is moresensitive to news-driven volatility.While we’re making these defensiveadjustments, our medium-term outlookremains optimistic. We continue to preferstocks over bonds, though we’re scaling backexposure to better manage short-term risks.This strategy allows us to remain engaged inpotential market upside while positioning usto seize opportunities that often followperiods of uncertainty.S E P T E M B E R 1 2 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 3

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123seeking to tactically preempt seasonaland potential election-related volatility,with an eye toward potentially re-riskingpost-election.moving closer to benchmarkweighting across US, DevelopedMarket, and Emerging Marketstocks amidst shifting relativetrends in corporate earnings.WHAT ARE WE DOING TODAY?Reduce equity overweight to 1%Neutralize regional equity tiltsmaintaining a growth bias but tacticallypruning exposure following significantoutperformance and rising short-termmacro uncertainty.Recalibrate tech and growth/valuefactor bets4adjusting fixed income sleevepositioning after a sharp fall ininterest rates and in preparation of aregime transition to Fed easing.Harvest gains on ‘inflation fade’ andduration-sensitive trades in bond-heavy risk profilesS E P T E M B E R 1 2 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 3

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PerformanceThe markets experienced a surge in volatilitythis past month, driven by unexpectedpolitical developments and economic shifts.Notably, President Trump survived anassassination attempt, while PresidentBiden withdrew from the election, adding tothe uncertainty. U.S. economic indicatorsalso signaled a transition, with labor marketand inflation data coming in cooler thananticipated. This led to a rally in bonds and asignificant rotation into undervalued,interest rate-sensitive stocks. Small-capstocks, which had been underperforming foryears, saw the strongest gains, while thetypically favored growth stocks laggedbehind. This shift raised concerns amongmarket observers about the sustainability ofthe rally into less profitable sectors.As the Q2 corporate earnings seasonunfolded, over two-thirds of S&P 500companies exceeded expectations,reinforcing the resilience of the U.S.economy. While tech earnings remainedstrong overall, some traders expressedmixed feelings, with key AI-drivencompanies still to report.All our models posted positive absoluteperformance for the month butunderperformed their benchmarks. Ourpositions in stocks over bonds, growth overvalue, and a strong bias toward tech, whichhad been key drivers of outperformanceearlier in the year, became headwinds inJuly. However, gains from internationaldeveloped market value stocks and anoverweight to infrastructure stockscontributed positively to returns.Additionally, the core bonds exposure,particularly U.S. treasuries and duration-heavy strategies, provided significant upsideduring the month.S E P T E M B E R 1 2 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 3

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As we approach the upcoming election, weunderstand that the uncertainty can feeloverwhelming. Elections often bring marketswings and potential changes that may leaveyou feeling uneasy about your financialfuture. But you don’t have to go through italone. At LynnLeigh & Company, we’re hereto support you every step of the way andprovide guidance during this uncertaintime.Here’s how we can help:Adapting Your Portfolio to Market Changes:We’re keeping a close eye on how theelection might impact the markets, and we’lladjust your portfolio to help protect youfrom unnecessary risk. Whether it’s shiftingto safer investments or identifying newopportunities, we’ll make sure your financialstrategy stays aligned with your long-termgoals.Personalized Risk Management: Weunderstand that uncertainty can causestress, especially when it comes to yourfinances. That’s why we’ll work together tominimize risks while maintaining thegrowth potential of your investments, so youcan feel more secure, even in a volatileenvironment.Preparing for Potential Policy Changes:With elections often come changes in taxlaws and policies that could affect yourfinancial plan. We’ll help you stay informedand ready, making adjustments whereneeded to ensure you’re prepared for anyshifts that come your way.Revisiting Your Financial Plan: Now is agreat time to pause and review yourfinancial goals. Whether you’re planning forretirement, a major life event, or simplyreassessing your investment strategy, we’rehere to provide the clarity and support youneed to move forward with confidence.Our priority is helping you feel secure andempowered during these times ofuncertainty. If you have any questions orjust want to talk through your concerns,we’re here for you. Together, we’ll make sureyou’re prepared for whatever the futureholds.S E P T E M B E R 1 2 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 3How we can help!Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing Partner, Private Wealth ManagerOffice - 585-623-5982Mobile - 585-200-2320E-Mail - kelly@lynnleighco.com