Return to flip book view

LynnLeigh Q2 2025 Trade Memo

Page 1

Message M A Y 2 2 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 2Trade Memo - 2nd Quarter 2025Navigating New Terrain with Focus andFlexibilityAs we head into the second half of 2025, the market feels like it’sstraddling two realities—on one hand, we’ve seen a strong reboundand renewed optimism; on the other, policy uncertainty, shifting rateexpectations, and the return of trade-related turbulence are keepingthings interesting. This kind of environment rewards clarity anddecisiveness, not complacency.We used the recent rally as a window to make intentional adjustments—locking in gains where appropriate, leaning into the positions wehave the highest conviction in, and dialing back exposure where wesaw signs of overextension or unnecessary risk. It wasn’t aboutretreating from growth; it was about tightening the screws andrebalancing with purpose.We’re still leaning into long-term opportunity—especially in areas likeinnovation, quality U.S. leadership, and select global diversification—but with a refined lens. Our goal is to keep portfolios resilient enoughto weather the headlines, and dynamic enough to take advantage ofdislocations when they arise. This next stretch of the year could bepivotal, and we’re entering it from a position of strength—with a clearstrategy and a steady hand on the wheel.Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing PartnerPrivate Wealth Manager

Page 2

Strategic asset allocationbegins with a broadbenchmark and tilts torewarded sources of returnsto reflect our long-termviewsSTART WITH A LONG-TERMSTRATEGYADAPT TO CHANGINGMARKET CONDITIONSINVESTMENT VEHICLESELECTIONHELP PROTECT THEPORTFOLIOOur approach to portfolio constructionInvestment ProcessTactical asset allocationtakes a disciplined approachto seek opportunities ordownside protection basedon short-term and medium-term investment views Select appropriateinvestment vehicles that areefficient, cost effective, andaccurately express targetedexposures across both activeand passive vehicles todiversify sources of return.Measure and monitor modalportfolio risks using AladdinTechnology to betterunderstand portfolio riskand manage investmentswithin a risk budget of 300bps. 1 2 34Investing GuidingPrinciplesYour fixed incomeshouldn’t be ‘fixed’Managing duration and credit riskModerate U.S.equity overweightIn benchmarkExposure to targetedfactors, styles andsectorsSeek to controlactive riskProvide consistent outcomesDisciplined tradingscheduleAd-hoc flexibility+/- 5% max deviationFor equities from benchmarkM A Y 2 2 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 2

Page 3

123seeking to take advantage of therecent rally to opportunisticallyrecalibrate risk.favoring large, high-quality U.S.companies with relative earningsstrength while fading the recentDM rally as regional forwardearnings guidance cools.WHAT ARE WE DOING TODAY?Cut equity overwieght from 2%to neutralRotate broad U.S. equityexposure toward our highest-conviction ideas,seeking to moderate regional bets andbalance our growth/value barbellAdd to value-orientedinternational developed marketstocksM A Y 2 2 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 2

Page 4

4with the short-term aim of mitigatingexposure to highly sensitive policyheadline volatility while retaining long-term caution on the region.WHAT ARE WE DOING TODAY?Move to neutral within EmergingMarkets (“EM”) by reducingChina underweight5hedging potential near-term tariff-driven inflation surprises whilebuilding in resilience against possibleslower growth and more pronounceddisinflation later in the year.Enhance fixed incomepositioning with short-terminflation protection, globaldiversification, and a marginaloverweight to durationM A Y 2 2 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 2

Page 5

Our firm typically rebalances yourretirement accounts quarterly, unlesswe have unusual market conditions. Ifyou have non-retirement accounts, werebalance at least twice a year,depending on your tax situation. Markets bounced back quickly from the April drop, validating our conviction that patiencebeats panic. We viewed the dramatic ‘Liberation Day’ selloff as just that—dramatic, notdisastrous. The move felt more like emotional whiplash than a signal of economic doom.Thanks to the proactive risk trimming we did back in February, and our timely tilt intohard assets like gold, portfolios held up through the storm better than most.Now that markets have rallied, we’re taking advantage of the improved backdrop to dialrisk back further—but on our terms, not in reaction to headlines. Trade policy drama andgeopolitical curveballs are still in play, and we’d rather adjust with foresight than getcaught off guard.Trade RationalM A Y 2 2 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 2Staying the Course, Adjusting the SailsTariffs, inflation, and growth are the bigthree themes on our radar right now.While tariffs could bump up prices in theshort run, we don’t see them derailing thelonger trend of disinflation. The bigger What We’re Watching (andWhy It Matters)issue? They could spook global growth if supply chains seize up or corporate confidencewavers. That’s why we expect the Fed to stay focused on growth and labor market health—and why rate cuts are still very much in play this year.We’re also seeing long-term Treasuries as a smart ballast in this environment. Marketsmay be underestimating just how fragile growth could be if trade tensions flare or hiringslows. We’re not buying doomsday scenarios, but we’re not ignoring the signals either.

Page 6

M A Y 2 2 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 2What We’re Doing NowWe used the recent rally in U.S. equities—driven largelyby mega-cap and AI momentum—as a chance to trim ourexposure closer to benchmark weights. This doesn’treflect a loss of conviction in U.S. exceptionalism. Rather,it's a deliberate move to lock in gains from our Q1positioning and prepare for a more headline-sensitivesecond half of the year.Scaling Back U.S. Equity Overweight — But Staying in theDriver’s SeatAs we shift our focus toward U.S. equities, we’re alsoimplementing tactical allocations to diversify andmitigate potential risks. This includes carefullyassessing international exposures and adjustingpositions in sectors likely to benefit from the currentpolicy landscape.Rebalancing International Exposure for Flexibility and ValueReduced exposure to broad market ETFs like IVV andSPYVRotated into high-conviction U.S. names through OEF(S&P 100) and BAI (BlackRock AI ETF) to stay alignedwith quality and innovation themesTrimmed our Emerging Market ex-China exposure (EMXC) to avoid outsized volatilitytied to China-specific headlinesReduced China underweight, not out of optimism, but to avoid over-penalizingportfolios in an increasingly reactionary trade environment

Page 7

M A Y 2 2 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 2Gold has had a phenomenal run (+40% 1-year returns), andwe felt the prudent move was to trim some profits.Locking in Gains on Precious MetalsWe retooled the bond side of the portfolio to reflect a more nuanced outlook—whereinflation may linger, but growth concerns are rising.Adjusting Fixed Income to Balance Yield and DefenseReduced our IAU (gold) position, recognizing its strongperformance and the need to rebalance riskMaintained exposure to Bitcoin (IBIT) as a volatile butuncorrelated diversifier for risk-tolerant sleevesAdded to short-term TIPS (STIP) for inflationprotectionAdded long-duration Treasuries (TLT) to serve asballast if we hit a slowdown or disinflationacceleratesAdded global aggregate bonds (IAGG) for currencydiversification and yield pickupReduced convertible bond exposure (ICVT) andlightened up on active bond funds wherepositioning looked stale

Page 8

M A Y 2 2 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 2As markets get more reactive to policy and economic data,we believe active risk needs to be deployed more precisely—not broadly.Fine-Tuning Active Risk Across the BoardTightened relative weightings across sectors andgeographies to reduce tracking error and avoidconcentrationTrimmed overweight positions that had becomeoverextended due to Q2’s strong returnsFocused on reinforcing structural exposures (like qualityand momentum) rather than chasing cyclical swingsPerformanceThe first quarter delivered no shortage of market tension. Trade policy surprises—particularlyaggressive tariff proposals from the Trump campaign—stirred up global uncertainty and shookinvestor confidence. U.S. equities came under pressure early in the quarter, and familiar patternsbegan to unravel: large-cap tech faltered, momentum slowed, and growth temporarily cededleadership to value. Bonds didn’t get a pass either—volatility surged as inflation jitters andgrowth fears collided.Despite all this, our portfolios stayed resilient. Returns for the month of March were negative inabsolute terms, but relative performance held up well across the board, especially when comparedto benchmarks. Here’s what drove performance under the hood:A Quarter of Contrasts—and Opportunity

Page 9

M A Y 2 2 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 2Fixed Income & Alternatives Provided a Solid FoundationBond-heavy strategies were standouts, helped by strong gains in gold and mortgage-backedsecurities (MBS). These asset classes offered stability when risk assets pulled back. Longerduration Treasuries and short-term TIPS, added in February, provided useful hedges. Meanwhile,the alternatives sleeve—particularly market-neutral and macro strategies like BDMIX and EBSIX—delivered on their role as volatility dampeners, contributing positively to both total and activereturns.U.S. Growth and Tech—Finally Took a BreatherAfter a long stretch of dominance, U.S. large-cap growth and tech names hit turbulence.Semiconductors, AI infrastructure companies, and other high-flying stocks were dragged downafter a Chinese tech firm released a low-cost language model, reigniting fears of a commoditizedAI race. Our exposure to momentum and mega-cap growth (IVV, IVW, IYW) was a headwind, butit was intentionally counterbalanced by more defensive and diversified allocations.Value, International, and Emerging Markets Stepped UpOn the equity side, international developed market value stocks (EFV) and emerging markets(IEMG) helped buffer downside. We also benefitted from February’s reduction in our Chinaunderweight, which helped avoid outsized volatility as policy headlines seesawed. U.S. valuenames (SPYV) also provided a layer of defense when high-growth names stumbled.Three Key TakeawaysProactive Positioning Paid OffOur February rebalancing—reducing equity exposure and increasing gold and duration—helped stabilize returns when markets turned rocky. That foresight mattered.Diversification Did Its JobWhile tech leadership paused, international value, Emerging Markets, and alternativestrategies picked up the slack, proving the value of a broadly diversified, high-convictionallocation.1.2.

Page 10

M A Y 2 2 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 2Portfolios Are Built for What’s NextWe’ve tightened exposure where needed, taken profits on outliers like gold, and fine-tunedpositions for a market that’s still digesting inflation data, trade policy, and growth signals.We’re not just reacting—we’re setting up for resilience and opportunity in Q3.3.Access to Our Team’s Expertise: We’re herewhenever you need us. Whether you havequestions about your current allocation,want to explore new investmentopportunities, or simply need a clearperspective on the market, we’re just a callor email away.Our priority is your financial success, andwe’re here to make sure you feel informed,confident, and supported every step of theway. Let’s work together to finish this yearstrong and set a clear path forward for 2025.Thank you for trusting us with your financialjourney.Transparent Updates on Our Strategy: Ourteam is committed to keeping you informed.We’ll explain the reasoning behind each ofour portfolio decisions, providing context onmarket trends, economic conditions, andwhat we anticipate moving into the newyear.Setting Realistic Expectations: Knowingwhat to expect helps bring peace of mind,even in times of market uncertainty. We’lldiscuss our outlook for the upcomingmonths and year, so you feel confident in thestrategy guiding your investments.How we can help!Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing Partner, Private Wealth ManagerOffice - 585-623-5982Mobile - 585-200-2320E-Mail - kelly@lynnleighco.comLynnLeigh & Company - A Registered Investment AdvisorThis information is provided by LynnLeigh & Co. for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information fromsources believed to be reliable – LynnLeigh& Co. advisors cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. The information presentedhere is not specific to any individual’s personal circumstances. To the extent that thismaterial concerns tax matters, it is not intended or written to beused, and cannot be used, by a taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed by law. Each taxpayershould seek independentadvice from a tax professional based on his or her individual circumstances. The information in these materials may change at any time and withoutnotice. Pastperformance is not a guarantee of future returns.