J U N E 1 9 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 2Trade Memo - 2nd Quarter 2024Welcome!We are pleased to present our 2nd quarterly investmenttrade memo for 2024, providing insights and updateson our investment strategy and market outlook. As wenavigate the complexities of the current economiclandscape, our goal is to keep you informed about ourapproach and the rationale behind our decisions.Our strategy has remained steadfast over the past year,and we continue to see strength in our positions. Inthis memo, we will outline our ongoing preferences forstocks over bonds, US markets over international,mega-cap over small-cap, and growth over value. Wewill also address the key factors influencing ouroutlook and the potential adjustments we areconsidering in response to evolving market conditions.Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing PartnerPrivate Wealth Manager
Strategic asset allocationbegins with a broadbenchmark and tilts torewarded sources of returnsto reflect our long-termviewsSTART WITH A LONG-TERMSTRATEGYADAPT TO CHANGINGMARKET CONDITIONSINVESTMENT VEHICLESELECTIONHELP PROTECT THEPORTFOLIOOur approach to portfolio constructionInvestment ProcessTactical asset allocationtakes a disciplined approachto seek opportunities ordownside protection basedon short-term and medium-term investment views Select appropriateinvestment vehicles that areefficient, cost effective, andaccurately express targetedexposures across both activeand passive vehicles todiversify sources of return.Measure and monitor modalportfolio risks using AladdinTechnology to betterunderstand portfolio riskand manage investmentswithin a risk budget of 300bps. 1 2 34Investing GuidingPrinciplesYour fixed incomeshouldn’t be fixedManaging duration and credit riskModerate U.S.equity overweightIn benchmarkExposure to targetedfactors, styles andsectorsSeek to controlactive riskProvide consistent outcomesDisciplined tradingscheduleAd-hoc flexibility+/- 5% max deviationFor equities from benchmarkJ U N E 1 9 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 2
Our firm typically rebalances yourretirement accounts quarterly, unless wehave unusual market conditions. If youhave non-retirement accounts, werebalance at least twice a year, dependingon your tax situation. Here are the keytakeaways from this quarters rebalancing:“When the facts change, I change my mind.”Our outlook remains consistent since ourlast trade memo: Stocks over bonds, US overinternational, mega-cap over small-cap, andgrowth over value. This strategy has beenour guiding principle for the past year, andwe see no compelling evidence to change itat this time.Stocks have continued to thrive despitechallenges such as interest rate volatility,hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, politicaluncertainty, and escalating conflict in theMiddle East. The earnings strength of mega-cap tech and growth companies hasexceeded even the highest analystexpectations. We anticipate the ongoing AIrenaissance will boost capital expendituresand economic productivity, providing along-term structural advantage for the USeconomy, reinforcing its role as the world'seconomic growth engine.While some may have been taken aback bypersistent inflation in recent months, weview this as a reflection of the noise inherentin inflation data. Seasonal adjustments andlagging components of the Consumer PriceIndex (CPI) contributed to the recentinflation readings. Using alternative datasources, we anticipated these bumps andtherefore see no new informationTrade Rational warranting a shift in our perspective oninflation.Looking ahead, we expect these persistentinflation figures to decrease, potentiallysurprising to the downside by late summeror early fall. This scenario could prompt theFederal Reserve to implement projected ratecuts before year-end. In anticipation, we arecautiously positioning ourselves in tradessuch as long-duration bonds, emergingmarket stocks, and a weaker dollar. If ourforecast does not materialize, we willreassess and adapt accordingly, taking a cuefrom John Maynard Keynes' wisdom: "Whenthe facts change, I change my mind."For now, our strategy remains steadfast.J U N E 1 9 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 2
123refreshing target weights to reflectour drifted 4% overweightcourtesy of the recent market rallyseeking to further amplifyexposure to earnings-beatersin both the US and overseasdeveloped markets WHAT ARE WE DOING TODAY?Add 1% to equities as our bullishthesis has continued to play outMore, more, more growtha successful but now mature tradepotentially vulnerable to reversal assigns of accommodation from boththe Fed and EM central banks hasbecome more visibleClose short position in emergingmarket (EM) stocks4 targeting resilient investmentgrade corporate issuers withhealthy balance sheets andattractive valuations Enhance credit quality within fixedincomeJ U N E 1 9 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 2
PerformanceAfter a steady three-week pullbackexceeding 5%, US stocks made a remarkablerebound toward the end of April, as reportedby Bloomberg. This recovery, driven bystrong Q1 earnings from megacap techcompanies, reassured nervous investorsdespite growing consensus that interestrates might remain elevated for longer. Thehawkish market sentiment pushed yieldshigher, with 10-year Treasuries closing themonth above 4.6%. Small caps, being highlysensitive to interest rates, underperformedcompared to their large-cap counterparts.Commodities and energy stocks initiallyoutperformed but lost momentum asheadlines hinted at progress toward a cease-fire in the Middle East conflict. Japanesestocks, which had gained in March, retracedlower but stabilized alongside the yen onspeculation of central bank intervention.Emerging markets (EM) achieved a modestgain, buoyed by strength in commoditiesand increasing investor interest inundervalued Chinese stocks.Overall performance was negative on bothtotal and relative return bases during themonth, reflecting a global decline in pricesacross stocks and bonds. However, ourexposure to energy and infrastructurestocks, dollar-hedged internationaldeveloped market stocks, and a preferencefor large-cap over small-cap stocks helpedmitigate deeper losses. Our underweightposition in EM slightly detracted fromrelative performance due to the rebound inChinese stocks. Additionally, the pause inUS tech stocks during an overall risk-offmonth negatively impacted returns relativeto the benchmark. On the fixed income side,our exposure to active strategies helpedcushion the impact of rising rates.J U N E 1 9 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 2
Riding the ups and downs of the financial world can feel like stepping into the unknown,especially during uncertain times. But remember, we've weathered storms before, andwe're here to guide you through whatever comes our way. Your peace of mind andfinancial well-being are our top priorities.We understand how overwhelming it can be, which is why we choose to work closely witha select number of families. This allows us to provide you with the personalized supportand attention you deserve. No question is too big or small – we're here to listen and helpyou find clarity.So, as we embrace the summer season, let's take a moment to reflect on your goals andaspirations. Whether you have questions, concerns, or just want to chat, we're only amessage or call away. Your financial journey is unique, and we're honored to be a part ofit.Wishing you a sunny and prosperous summer!Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing Partner, Private Wealth ManagerOffice - 585-623-5982Mobile - 585-200-2320E-Mail - kelly@lynnleighco.comHow we can help!J U N E 1 9 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 2LynnLeigh & Company - A Registered Investment AdvisorThis information is provided by LynnLeigh & Co. for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable – LynnLeigh& Co. advisors cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. The information presented here is not specific to any individual’s personal circumstances. To the extent that thismaterial concerns tax matters, it is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by a taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed by law. Each taxpayershould seek independent advice from a tax professional based on his or her individual circumstances. The information in these materials may change at any time and without notice. Pastperformance is not a guarantee of future returns.