Return to flip book view

LynnLeigh Q1 2025 Trade Memo

Page 1

Message M A R C H 1 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 1Trade Memo - 1st Quarter 2025Strategic Adjustments for a Post-Election MarketAs we move into March 2025, the investment landscapepresents both unique opportunities and risks, shaped byrecent economic shifts, the outcomes of the latestpresidential election, and emerging signals from centralbanks. This quarter’s trade memo outlines the strategicadjustments we are making to ensure your portfolio ispositioned to capture growth and manage risk in thecurrent post-election environment. With economicindicators signaling resilience without runaway inflation,we’re focusing on tactical allocations and increasing ourexposure to U.S. stocks to leverage the opportunitiesahead.The post-election market often undergoes a recalibration,and we’re optimizing our portfolio to take advantage ofthis transitional phase as clarity replaces uncertainty.This memo offers clear insight into the rationale behindthese adjustments, providing you with an actionable viewof how we are positioning portfolios to align with yourfinancial goals.Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing PartnerPrivate Wealth Manager

Page 2

Strategic asset allocationbegins with a broadbenchmark and tilts torewarded sources of returnsto reflect our long-termviewsSTART WITH A LONG-TERMSTRATEGYADAPT TO CHANGINGMARKET CONDITIONSINVESTMENT VEHICLESELECTIONHELP PROTECT THEPORTFOLIOOur approach to portfolio constructionInvestment ProcessTactical asset allocationtakes a disciplined approachto seek opportunities ordownside protection basedon short-term and medium-term investment views Select appropriateinvestment vehicles that areefficient, cost effective, andaccurately express targetedexposures across both activeand passive vehicles todiversify sources of return.Measure and monitor modalportfolio risks using AladdinTechnology to betterunderstand portfolio riskand manage investmentswithin a risk budget of 300bps. 1 2 34Investing GuidingPrinciplesYour fixed incomeshouldn’t be ‘fixed’Managing duration and credit riskModerate U.S.equity overweightIn benchmarkExposure to targetedfactors, styles andsectorsSeek to controlactive riskProvide consistent outcomesDisciplined tradingscheduleAd-hoc flexibility+/- 5% max deviationFor equities from benchmarkM A R C H 1 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 1

Page 3

123maintaining a clear preference for stocksover bonds while recalibrating our risk-on stance.favoring large, high-quality U.S.companies with relative earningsstrength while fading the recentDM rally as regional forwardearnings guidance cools.WHAT ARE WE DOING TODAY?Trim Equities Overweigh:Increase Overweight to U.S. vsInternational DevelopedMarket (“DM”) Stockmitigating exposure to potential positivesurprises from tariff negotiations andaggressive Chinese government stimulusReduce the bet against Chineseequities,4as catalysts for global trade disruptionand geopolitical conflict appear ripeAdd to gold and bitcoin,M A R C H 1 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 1

Page 4

Our firm typically rebalances yourretirement accounts quarterly, unless wehave unusual market conditions. If youhave non-retirement accounts, werebalance at least twice a year, dependingon your tax situation. Here are the keytakeaways from this quarters rebalancing:Markets dodged a series of tape bombswith remarkable poise to start 2025 -shrugging off “hot” inflation, a morehawkish Fed, a historic single-day sell-off in AI related stocks, and a number oftrade policy announcements. Despite thisepisodic volatility, many marketparticipants continue to show adetermined willingness to “buy the dip.”This steadfast but increasingly erraticmarket behavior underpins our decisionto maintain a strategic overweight to riskassets while at the same time takingsome chips off the table. We expect thesethemes of market consternation willlikely remain triggers of turbulence forsome time. Trade Rational“Tariff” has become a boardroom buzzwordagain (with mentions on earnings callsexceeding Trump 1.0-era levels), and ouranalysis suggests tariff increases couldimpact corporate margins and disruptspending plans at least moderately. But we’dalso note sentiment regarding tariffs (whichremain highly uncertain as-is) has becomeexcessively bearish – meaning the pain tradefor any surprise could be to the upside.Our broader macro growth outlookcontinues to support an overweight equitystance, though we are moderating thisposition as markets have moved closer topricing in our above-consensus forecasts.Corporate earnings delivered an impressiveencore to 2024's performance, handilysurpassing what were already elevatedexpectations, but our earnings signalsbased on analyst expectations for 2025 havecooled considerably. This convergence,coupled with the recent frequency ofearnings downgrades over upgrades,suggests a potentially bumpier ride aheadand increased vulnerability todisappointments.M A R C H 1 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 1

Page 5

Our preference for U.S. over DM challenges two increasingly fashionable narratives:that leading U.S. tech stocks represent an overcrowded trade, and that DM stocks offercontrarian value. A closer look at fund positioning and manager survey data reveals theopposite: mega-cap U.S. tech leaders are under-owned relative to historical patterns,while DM stocks have become a consensus long idea. While international DM stockshave outperformed US stocks to start the year (benefitting from improved earnings anda lull in U.S. dollar strength), we think the relative momentum could stall out in theweeks ahead. Our DM earnings signals have softened, and in our view the Europeaneconomy remains meaningfully behind in AI infrastructure buildout and will likelycontinue to face challenging geopolitical issues in 2025. Trade Rational (Cont.)Key Takeaways:In light of the evolving economic backdrop and the claritybrought by the election results, we’re increasing ourallocation to U.S. stocks. The relative strength of the U.S.economy and the potential for favorable policy changesprovide an attractive environment for growth. We’retargeting high-quality, large-cap companies that canweather economic shifts and generate long-term value.As we shift our focus toward U.S. equities, we’re alsoimplementing tactical allocations to diversify andmitigate potential risks. This includes carefullyassessing international exposures and adjustingpositions in sectors likely to benefit from the currentpolicy landscape.Increased Focus on U.S. Stocks: Tactical Allocations to Manage Risk:M A R C H 1 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 1

Page 6

Key Takeaways (Cont.): The economic indicators currently show resilience, withoutthe threat of runaway inflation. While growth is expected,we are maintaining a cautious approach to ensure that weare well-positioned for any volatility that may arise fromunforeseen economic disruptions or policy shifts.Historically, markets following a presidentialelection go through a period of recalibration asuncertainty gives way to clarity. We are optimizingour portfolio for this phase, taking advantage of thenew economic landscape and the resulting marketmovements.Resilience Without Runaway Inflation: Capitalizing on Post-Election Market Recalibration:As detailed in the trade rationale, the strategic adjustments implemented this quarter arefocused on positioning the portfolio for growth while managing risks in the post-electionenvironment. With an emphasis on increasing U.S. stock exposure, implementing tactical riskmanagement, and addressing inflationary pressures, we are setting the foundation for aresilient portfolio. Now, let’s shift our focus to the previous quarter’s performance, examininghow these strategies have unfolded in the market and identifying the key factors driving theresults.M A R C H 1 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 1

Page 7

PerformanceThe market’s two-year romance with US techstocks faced unexpected heartbreak duringthe month. The release of a low-cost largelanguage model from a Chinese upstartbrought renewed scrutiny to AI capex plans,causing dramatic price declines ofsemiconductor, energy, and datacentercompanies at the center of the AI revolution.Against this backdrop, value factor andinternational developed market stocks weresome of the top monthly performers due totheir insulation from AI infrastructurethemes. Gold resumed its steady climbhigher after a brief respite, as investors’affection for the ancient metal continued toheat up while tariff threats and geopoliticalinstability weighed on bullish narratives.Despite the overall volatility, broad USstocks still managed to post positive returns,buoyed by mostly solid Q4 earnings resultsand the new administration's possiblederegulation and tax cuts. The FederalReserve kept rates unchanged attheir January meeting after threeconsecutive cuts, seeking to carefully adjustthe tempo of easing monetary policy amidstan increasingly tricky inflationenvironment. US 10-year treasuryyields spiked before sharply retreatingmidmonth and actually ending the monthlower.All models delivered positive total performanceand outperformed their benchmarks for themonth, led by our bond-heavy strategies.Overweight exposure to convertible bonds,emerging market bonds, and credit, with apreference for high yield over investment grade,all served as sources of outperformance as thedollar weakened and spreads tightened. Theequity-heavy strategies performed best from atotal return perspective, but relative to thebenchmark were modestly weighed down by theU-turn in market leadership over the month.The usual drivers of recent active returns acrossour platform such as US over international,growth over value, and broad emerging marketsover China were all sources of negative activereturn in January. The leading contributors tooverall performance were internationaldeveloped market stocks, quality factor stocks,and growth factor stocks.M A R C H 1 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 1

Page 8

The strong run of U.S. tech stocks was interruptedby a surprise from a low-cost large language modellaunched by a Chinese company. This developmentled to declines in semiconductor, energy, anddatacenter stocks, which were central to the AIboom.Performance Key Takeaways:Tech Stock Volatility:Value stocks and international developed marketequities were among the top performers for themonth, benefiting from a lack of exposure to the AIinfrastructure themes that weighed on U.S. techstocks.International and Value StocksOutperformed: Gold regained upward momentum after a briefpause. The combination of tariff threats andgeopolitical instability provided a tailwind,continuing to draw investors to the precious metal.Gold’s Resurgence:M A R C H 1 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 1

Page 9

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at theirJanuary meeting after three consecutive cuts,signaling a more measured approach to monetaryeasing amid persistent inflation concerns. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields spiked but ended the monthlower after a sharp retreat.Performance Breakdown:Despite broader market volatility, U.S. equitiesposted positive returns, driven by strong Q4earnings results and the possibility of deregulationand tax cuts under the new administration.Performance Key Takeaways:U.S. Equities Positive Despite Volatility: Fed Policy & Treasury Yields: All models delivered positive performance andoutperformed their benchmarks for the month, withbond-heavy strategies leading the way.M A R C H 1 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 1

Page 10

While equity-heavy strategies showed strong totalreturns, they lagged their benchmarks due to theshift in market leadership during the month. Theprimary sources of negative active returns were:U.S. equities underperforming internationalGrowth stocks underperforming value stocksBroad emerging markets underperforming ChinaExposure to convertible bonds, emergingmarket bonds, and credit (especially high-yield over investment grade) contributed tostrong performance as the dollar weakenedand spreads tightened.Bond-heavy Strategies Outperformed:Equity-heavy Strategies Performance:Performance Breakdown (Cont.):International developed market stocks, qualityfactor stocks, and growth factor stocks were theleading contributors to overall performance for themonth.Top Performers:M A R C H 1 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 1

Page 11

Access to Our Team’s Expertise: We’re herewhenever you need us. Whether you havequestions about your current allocation,want to explore new investmentopportunities, or simply need a clearperspective on the market, we’re just a callor email away.Our priority is your financial success, andwe’re here to make sure you feel informed,confident, and supported every step of theway. Let’s work together to finish this yearstrong and set a clear path forward for 2025.Thank you for trusting us with your financialjourney.Transparent Updates on Our Strategy: Ourteam is committed to keeping you informed.We’ll explain the reasoning behind each ofour portfolio decisions, providing context onmarket trends, economic conditions, andwhat we anticipate moving into the newyear.Setting Realistic Expectations: Knowingwhat to expect helps bring peace of mind,even in times of market uncertainty. We’lldiscuss our outlook for the upcomingmonths and year, so you feel confident in thestrategy guiding your investments.How we can help!Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing Partner, Private Wealth ManagerOffice - 585-623-5982Mobile - 585-200-2320E-Mail - kelly@lynnleighco.comLynnLeigh & Company - A Registered Investment AdvisorThis information is provided by LynnLeigh & Co. for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information fromsources believed to be reliable – LynnLeigh& Co. advisors cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. The information presentedhere is not specific to any individual’s personal circumstances. To the extent that thismaterial concerns tax matters, it is not intended or written to beused, and cannot be used, by a taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed by law. Each taxpayershould seek independentadvice from a tax professional based on his or her individual circumstances. The information in these materials may change at any time and withoutnotice. Pastperformance is not a guarantee of future returns.M A R C H 1 , 2 0 2 5 | I S S U E N O . 1