A P R I L 1 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 1Trade Memo - 1st Quarter 2024Welcome!Welcome to our 1st Quarter Trade Memo and Market Updatefor 2024! We are excited to share with you the latest updates oninvestment portfolio changes and market conditions. Withthe constant shifts in the global economy, it is crucial for usto keep a close eye on market trends and make necessaryadjustments to ensure our investments continue to thrive. In this memo, we will dive deep into the current state of themarket and provide insights on the changes we have madeto our investment portfolio. We hope this information willgive you a better understanding of our strategy and help youmake informed decisions about your investments. So, let'sget started! Let's dive into the latest developments in themarket and how they have impacted our investmentdecisions. Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing PartnerPrivate Wealth Manager
Strategic asset allocationbegins with a broadbenchmark and tilts torewarded sources of returnsto reflect our long-term viewsSTART WITH A LONG-TERM STRATEGYADAPT TO CHANGINGMARKET CONDITIONSINVESTMENT VEHICLESELECTIONHELP PROTECT THEPORTFOLIOOur approach to portfolio constructionInvestment ProcessTactical asset allocation takesa disciplined approach to seekopportunities or downsideprotection based on short-term and medium-terminvestment views Select appropriate investmentvehicles that are efficient,cost effective, and accuratelyexpress targeted exposuresacross both active andpassive vehicles to diversifysources of return.Measure and monitor modalportfolio risks using AladdinTechnology to betterunderstand portfolio risk andmanage investments within arisk budget of 300 bps. 1 2 34Investing GuidingPrinciplesYour fixed incomeshouldn’t be fixedManaging duration and credit riskModerate U.S.equity overweightIn benchmarkExposure to targetedfactors, styles andsectorsSeek to controlactive riskProvide consistent outcomesDisciplined tradingscheduleAd-hoc flexibility+/- 5% max deviationFor equities from benchmarkA P R I L 1 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 1
A P R I L 1 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 1Our firm typically rebalancesyour retirement accountsquarterly, unless we haveunusual market conditions. Ifyou have non-retirementaccounts, we rebalance at leasttwice a year, depending on yourtax situation. Here are the keytakeaways from this quartersrebalancing:We think the chances of a recession happening soonare pretty low, and there are a couple of importantthings we're keeping an eye on to make sure thingsstay that way: jobs and prices. The latest report onjobs from December was really good, showing lots ofpeople getting hired and wages going up nicely.While prices have been going up, which is normal to acertain extent, we think it might get a bit tricky tokeep them in check as time goes on. We reckon priceswill keep going up this year, but not too much –probably just a bit above what the Federal Reserveaims for.We're paying close attention to how much it costs tofind a place to live and other services, as these thingscan be slow to change in price and can have a bigimpact on the economy. All in all, we think this meansthe Federal Reserve won't need to keep raisinginterest rates.Trade RationalAlthough we think the Federal Reserve might startmaking borrowing money easier in 2024, we're not sosure the financial markets are right to expect this tohappen sooner or in a bigger way than we think. If itturns out keeping prices under control is tougherthan expected, the recent drop in interest rates mighthave gone a bit too far, and we could see somechanges, like certain investments not performing aswell.In this situation, we think investments like CLOs,which are basically a mix of loans with interest ratesthat change, could do well because they're notaffected much by changes in interest rates. On theother hand, we used to like mortgages because theywere safe when things got risky, but now that we'renot so worried about things going bad, they're not asattractive. Plus, the top-quality CLOs offer betterreturns than other safe investments like governmentbonds or mortgages.
123to access more attractive spreadsand modestly trim duration giventhe strength of the recent raterally.that offers enhanceddiversification, flexibilityand attractive risk-adjustd yields.WHAT ARE WE DOING TODAY?Buying high quality Collateralized LoanObligations (“CLOs”) while sellingagency mortgagesAdding to an active multi-sector bondETFin light of early signs ofeconomic improvementsoutside the US.In the more aggressive models,reducing international dividend stockunderweightA P R I L 1 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 1
We're also adding a new investment option to ourmix, the BlackRock Flexible Income ETF ("BINC").This one gives us a chance to invest in things likeloans and bonds from outside the US, which can behard to get into otherwise. It's also good because wecan trade it every day, giving us more flexibility.We're pretty confident in the team managing thisinvestment, and we think their focus on getting a good return while keeping risk low fits well with ouroverall investment strategy. To balance out the risks,we're selling some other types of bonds.Lastly, for those who are willing to take more riskswith their investments, we're not avoidinginternational investments as much. We've noticedsome signs of economic growth outside the US thatmight not be fully appreciated yet by the markets.PerformanceStocks had a great run in February, thanks to strongprofits from companies and amazing performancefrom the tech sector, especially because of theexcitement around artificial intelligence (AI). Notonly did US stocks do well, but emerging markets andEurope also saw good returns, with smaller UScompanies doing slightly better than the big ones. Onthe other hand, bonds and other investmentssensitive to interest rates didn't do as well, partlybecause people got worried when the January reporton how prices were changing came in stronger thanexpected, making them think interest rates mightstay high for longer than they thought.Even though things are growing and people arespending money, we didn't think there would be asmany interest rate cuts in 2024 as some people wereguessing at the start of the year. And it looks like wewere right, because now most people only expectthree cuts by the end of the year, instead of the sixthey were thinking before.Despite all this, our investments did pretty well inFebruary, and they did better than what we comparethem to. The biggest winners were US stocks that paydividends, international stocks that grow theirdividends, and a mix of different types ofinvestments that bring in income. Investments inriskier debt, like loans from banks and bonds that payhigher interest, also did well, along with really safeinvestments like AAA-rated CLOs because they don'tget affected much by changes in interest rates. Butother safe investments, like government bonds andhigh-quality company bonds, didn't do so well.Compared to similar investments, we did especiallywell with picking which stocks to buy. Stocks that paygrowing dividends, a strategy that looks for gooddividends globally, and a mix of high-dividend stocksall beat our targets by a lot. And because we had moreof our money in stocks compared to bonds, thathelped our returns too. In the bond part of ourinvestments, choosing riskier debt was good for ourreturns, but not so much when it came to bonds thatused to have a higher rating but got downgradedrecently.
Navigating the ups and downs of the financial world can feel like stepping into the unknown,especially in uncertain times. But remember, we've weathered storms before, and we're here toguide you through whatever comes our way. Your peace of mind and financial well-being are ourtop priorities.We understand how overwhelming it can be, which is why we choose to work closely with a selectnumber of families. This allows us to provide you with the personalized support and attentionyou deserve. No question is too big or small – we're here to listen and help you find clarity.So, as we step into spring, let's take a moment to reflect on your goals and aspirations. Whetheryou have questions, concerns, or just want to chat, we're only a message or call away. Yourfinancial journey is unique, and we're honored to be a part of it.Happy Spring,Kelly L. Olczak, CFP®Managing Partner, Private Wealth ManagerOffice - 585-623-5982Mobile - 585-200-2320E-Mail - kelly@lynnleighco.comHow we can help!A P R I L 1 , 2 0 2 4 | I S S U E N O . 1