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Message Project H1-P1 Coastal Science Research Precision in Predicting Extreme Coastal Events Development of probability distributions and extreme value analysis for storm surge levels, currents, wind waves and astronomic tides PI: Dr Pavel Tkalich National University of Singapore, College of Design and Engineering, Tropical Marine Science Institute and Technology Centre for Oshore and Marine, Singapore tmspt@nus.edu.sg cde.nus.edu.sg/csg/

What is this about? This project aims to develop models for simulating extreme local wind waves and storm surge conditions, enhancing the understanding of the combined risks these events pose when they occur concurrently. How is this done? Develop and deploy a 10-metre resolution exible mesh model for storm surge and tide, as well as a wind-wave spectral model. Apply advanced statistical methods to establish RPs from 1 year to 10,000 years. Model non-linear phenomena near coastal protection systems. Optimise the WRF model to sub-kilometre resolutions for detailed studies of local atmospheric extremes. Why does this matter? Models and methods developed will help Singapore’s agencies, including NEA and PUB, with long-term planning against coastal oods. Implementing high-resolution storm-surge, wind-wave and 3D hydrodynamic models will establish new benchmarks and expand local capabilities. Research output will remain relevant and can be continuously adapted and integrated with future IPCC assessments. What is the goal? Analyse historical coastal phenomena to understand the extremes that compromise Singapore’s resilience. Develop high-resolution storm surge and tide models (Del3D-FM), and wind-wave models (WW3), using downscaled atmospheric forces from the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS). Provide projections for storm surges, tides and wind wave variability and extremes. Develop tools for calculating probability distribution functions and return periods (RPs) to support coastal ood risk assessments. Generate high-resolution scenarios of regional weather-climate extremes to inform strategic planning. Project H1-P1 Coastal Science Research cde.nus.edu.sg/csg/