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Jim Baird Sep 3, 2021 • 94 tweets • JimBair62221006/status/1433829191405826052@JimBair62221006Food security and climate change: a critical warning forhumanity-Thread synthesizing peer-reviewed research, currentnews, market intelligence analysis & more.#CodeRed #ActNow #ClimateCrisis #foodblogger#foodsecurity #news 1/xIn sum:1) Significant climate change impacts on food systems are already happening, & therisk of multi-breadbasket failures is increasing,2) We will need to adapt, but  3) There are limits to adaptation - we urgently, urgently need to cut GHG emissions &draw down CO2.  2/xThis thread consists of 3 parts:Part 1 - The PresentPart 2 - WarningsPart 3 - Choosing our Future3/x

Part 1 - The Present “The probability of simultaneous drought across multiple regions is increasing.Concurrent crop losses in major production regions can cause price spikes and havecascading effects on food access, famine and food riots.” 4/x Water, water not everywhereNature Climate Change - <ArticleTitle Language="En" xml:lang="en">Water, waternot everywhere</ArticleTitle>https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01111-9The consequences of our inaction on climate change already include dramaticallyreduced food security for the most vulnerable, and for example, the current “climate-change induced” famine in Madagascar:5/x Madagascar on the brink of climate change-induced famineThe country is on the brink of experiencing the world's first "climate changefamine", the UN says.https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-58303792But climate change impacts on agriculture are visible everywhere there is extremeweather These attract little media attention, but have significant cumulative effects, especiallywith extreme extremes like the heat dome & flooding in Europe The scar tissue is building up. 6/x

Within a year: A North American heat dome & Drought extending "from Vancouver Island to southern Quebec, down into theUnited States, into California, right into Mexico... it's enormous." "nothing grows without water. That's just a fact of life." 7/x ‘There’s nothing you can do about it’: Drought threatens crops across …"You are seeing drought a lot more widespread and a lot earlier than on record andI've been farming for 15 years now and this is the driest I've ever seen it this early."https://globalnews.ca/news/7918107/drought-threatens-crops-farms-canada-weather/Devastating oats: 'As drought conditions bake the upper reaches of the U.S. Plains, American farmersare now expected to harvest their smallest oats crop in records that go back to 1866.' “There will be very few supplies left after this year” 8/x https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-12/drought-pushes-u-s-oat-crop-to-lowest-in-records-back-to-1866And wheat: ‘A drought in eastern Washington state that is the worst since 1977 has devastatedwhat is normally the fourth largest U.S. wheat crop’ 9/x

Severe drought devastates Washington state's wheat cropA drought in eastern Washington state that is the worst since 1977 has devastatedwhat is normally the fourth largest U.S. wheat crophttps://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/severe-drought-devastates-washington-…In Canada too: ‘the drought is unique in how widespread it is. In the past, provinces may have seenpockets of drought where wheat quality would drop... Now, the situation is inverse: InAlberta, for example, 80% of the crops are of lesser quality' 10/x 'Worst year I've ever witnessed': Drought withers …https://nationalpost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/nationalpost.c…Double digit drops in output of major crops: 'Canada, the world’s biggest canola grower and a major wheat producer, forecasts a26% drop in supplies of its main crops as drought ravages output and inventoriesshrink.' 11/x Canada sees supply of main crops dropping 26% on drought impact - …Canada, the world’s biggest canola grower and a major wheat producer, forecastsa 26 per cent drop in supplies of its main crops as drought ravages output andinventories shrink.https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-sees-supply-of-main-crops-dropping-26-on-drou…

Baking berries on the bush & more: "We’ve had rain and we’ve had some heat (over the years) but nothing, nothing likethis. This is just crazy." "All the leaves have been burnt" "One of my growers, he lost 100% all the cauliflower, broccoli” 12/x Scorching temperatures cripple crops in B.C.'s Fraser ValleyDozens of farms in B.C.'s Fraser Valley have been hard-hit by the heat wave that'sbeen suffocating the province since last week.https://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/scorching-temperatures-cripple-crops-in-b-c-s-fraser-valle…The dryness was "unprecedented… It is the driest nine-month period on record, since1895” 'Farmers should not underestimate the drought of 2021... NASA rates the soilmoisture in the region at the 1 to 2 percentile — for soil that is 0-100 cm deep' 13/x https://www.producer.com/news/climatolgists-ring-drought-alarm/In Mexico- a growing water crisis due to drought “I have no doubt that in 2022 there will be a crisis. The reservoirs are completely depleted.” As of July ~70% of Mexico was affected by drought 14/x

Mexico water supply buckles on worsening drought, crops at riskWeather forecasts warn of high temperatures portending crop damage and watersupply shortages.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/2/mexico-water-supply-buckles-on-worsening-…'Two years of extreme drought have turned large stretches of northern Mexico into aboneyard. Between starvation & ranchers forced to prematurely sell or slaughter...the number of cattle in Sonora has dropped from 1.1 million to ~635,000' 15/x In drought-plagued northern Mexico, tens of thousands of cows are st…Sonora is the cattle capital of Mexico. But prolonged drought is killing off the herds.https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-08-01/in-drought-plagued-northern-m…South America- Chile is a major global fruit exporter, supplying Asia, Europe and Latin America (

) It has recently supplied ~13-15% of all US fruit imports(https://freshplaza.com/article/9172119/imported-fruits-most-loved-by-americans/)& now... this entire sector is failing due to climate change. 16/xAsia Replaces US as Chile’s Top Fruit Export MarketThe United States has lost its title as Chile’s top export market for fresh fruit thisseason, according to the Chilean Fruit Exporters Association (ASOEX).https://producereport.com/article/asia-replaces-us-chiles-top-fruit-export-market'Fruit growers in Chile are reportedly on red alert following the driest July on record' “The agricultural and fruit world is almost in a state of shock when it comes to thishuge problem" 17/x Chile drought: fruit crops under threatGrowers may be forced to abandon some crops after record dry spell in July, saysFedefrutahttp://www.fruitnet.com/eurofruit/article/186032/chile-drought-fruit-crops-under-threat'A punishing, decade-long drought in Chile has gone from bad to worse... lack ofprecipitation this year has left the towering & typically snowcapped Andes above thecity mostly bare, reservoir levels low & farm fields parched.' 18/x

Record-breaking drought in Chile makes climate change ‘very easy’ to …‘We already have overwhelming evidence and it is climatic evidence’, said thecountry’s Science Minister Andres Couve.https://www.scmp.com/news/world/americas/article/3144665/record-breaking-drought-…Argentina also suffering from a ‘historic drought’- 'with major impacts for agriculture, transport and the economy' 19/x World Meteorological Organization@WMOReplying to @WMOPart of Argentina, including Parana Basin, is also suffering a historic drought, with major impacts for agriculture, transport and the economy, per @SMN_Argentina2:25 PM · Jul 23, 2021104 6 Copy link to TweetTweet your replyAnd Brazil- "We're facing a 'dry season' that in reality is going to last one-and-a-half to two years" 'hurting key farming states... The country's sugar cane, coffee, orange, corn and soycrops are all under threat' 20/x

Historic drought threatens Brazil's economy - France 24Historic drought threatens Brazil's economyhttps://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210609-historic-drought-threatens-brazil-s-e…"For eight years, it hasn’t been raining as much as it tends to rain. It’s like a watertank that doesn’t get refilled, and each year we use up more & more hoping that thefollowing year things will improve, but that better year has yet to come.” 21/x Brazil, Besieged by Covid, Now Faces a Severe DroughtBrazilians are paying more for electricity, dealing with the possibility of waterrationing and expecting a destructive fire season in the Amazon in the worst dryspell in at least 90 years.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/19/world/americas/brazil-drought.htmlAll this straining water supplies critical for agriculture- 'The country with the most freshwater resources on the planet steadily lost 15% of itssurface water since 1991' "This is not just happening in Brazil, it’s happening all over the world.”22/x https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/brazil-water-survey-heightens-alarm-over-extreme-drought/2021/08/27/2e6026ec-075a-11ec-b3c4-c462b1edcfc8_story.htmlEurope's extreme rainfall also caused major crop damage- 'Record rainfall in parts of Europe including Germany, Belgium, Switzerland & theNetherlands has inundated fields, destroyed crops, & caused major disruption toproduction sites’

23/x Europe's flood damage begins to emergeProduction has been affected in large parts of Belgium, Germany, Netherlands andSwitzerlandhttp://www.fruitnet.com/eurofruit/article/185840/europes-flood-damage-begins-to-emergeE.g. in Belgium- 'Floods deal heavy blow to agriculture' “Due to the very heavy rainfall, up to 200 litresper square metre, entire hectares have been washed away. Other areas are so wet thatit is impossible to harvest" 24/x ‘The damage is considerable’: Floods deal heavy blow to agricultureAgriculture is facing heavy consequences from the flooding and the extremeweather Belgium experienced over the last couple of weeks.https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/business/179028/the-damage-is-considerable-flo…& Extreme heat in the south was ruinous: “People don’t understand that the damage is everywhere” “All of us who work in this sector, in agriculture, understand it. And we are the baseof everything. When you take the broad view, Europe is dying” 25/x

David Wallace-Wells@dwallacewells“In the surrounding fields, the area’s famed snails burned in their shells. The relentless sun branded the verdello green lemons with yellow blots and stewed their flesh within.”A Sicilian Town Sends an Omen of a Much Hotter FutureFloridia may have hit 124 degrees Fahrenheit this week, possibly the highest temperature ever recorded in Europe, offering Italy and the entir…nytimes.com9:16 PM · Aug 13, 2021123 4 Copy link to TweetTweet your replyAnd drought wreaking havoc across Central Asia & the Middle East- #Algeria- Cereal harvest set to fall 35-40% this year due to drought “Drought has hitall provinces in the east and west, mainly those known for high production.” 26/x https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/algerias-cereal-harvest-set-to-fall-35-40-this-year-due-to-droughtSyria- "Agricultural production, in particular strategic crops, were affected by the severedrought resulting from the little rainfall that barely reached 60% of the annualaverage, & the increase in temperatures of 6 to 7 degrees above the average" 27/x

Drought affects wheat and barley crops in SyriaDamascus, May 22 (Prensa Latina) The crops of cereals in Syria, in particularwheat and barley, suffered considerable damage as a result of the low rainfall andhigh temperatures, revealed the Minist…https://news.prensa-latina.cu/?p=37178/2021/05/22/drought-affects-wheat-and-barley-…This translated into a "huge impact of climate change... all rain-fed plantations havebeen taken out of investments & even the irrigated wheat area production has gonedown 50%" 12.4 million Syrians suffer from food insecurity & hunger 28/x Syria: drought puts Assad's 'year of wheat' in perilThe 'year of wheat' campaign pushed by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad is injeopardy after low rainfall risked leaving an import gap of at least 1.5 million tonnes,Reuters has reported, citing pre…https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20210621-syria-drought-puts-assads-year-of-whe…Iraq too: 'In Iraq, large swathes of farmland... have already been depleted of water. Wheatproduction is expected to go down by 70% because of the drought' 29/x

Climate change triggering intense drought in Iraq, Syria: Over 12 mn p…The region has been witnessing a major spike in temperatures amid record lowlevels of rainfall, and drought due to climate change.https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/climate-change-iraq-syria-water-crisis-drought-f…Leading to a warning by '13 aid groups working in the region... to tackle the imminentwater crisis emerging from climate change' “The total collapse of water & food production for millions of Syrians and Iraqis isimminent” 30/x Climate change triggering intense drought in Iraq, Syria: Over 12 mn p…The region has been witnessing a major spike in temperatures amid record lowlevels of rainfall, and drought due to climate change.https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/climate-change-iraq-syria-water-crisis-drought-f…Turkey- 'alarming forecasts for the agricultural sector this year due to drought. Averageprecipitation levels have fallen 25% below normal seasonal amounts, highlighting theever-growing impact of global warming' 31/x

Rise in Turkish food prices sparks fears of shortagesTurkey, a major agricultural producer, might find itself grappling with watershortages and food insecurity in the next decade unless it takes action to addressgrowing problems in its agricultural s…https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/06/rise-turkish-food-prices-sparks-fears-shor…Jordan- "Look at how the land thirsts. Everything I planted… is dead." 'Experts say Jordan is now in the grip of one of the most severe droughts in itshistory, but many warn the worst is yet to come.' "The situation is critical" 32/x Photos: Jordan in the grip of ‘severe’ droughtExperts say Jordan is now in the grip of a severe drought, but many warn the worstis yet to come.https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2021/5/6/drought-hit-jordan-critical-as-water-sources…Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan & more in Central Asia hit by extreme heat & drought 'total loss of crops' or 'large-scale crop failures' in several provinces in Kyrgyzstan &Turkmenistan. 33/x

Let It Rain: Anger, Frustration Increase As Central Asia's Drought Cont…Tempers are flaring as water becomes ever scarcer in Central Asia, causing ever-worsening economic problems for the region.https://www.rferl.org/a/central-asia-drought-anger/31387259.html'Kazakhstan expects its 2021 grain crop to contract by 24% to 15.3mn tonnes amidthe major drought across much of Eurasia that has hit main grain producing regions' 34/x Kazakhstan set to lose quarter of grain crop as drought hammers Eura…Kazakhstan expects its 2021 grain crop to contract by 24% to 15.3mn tonnes amidthe major drought across much of Eurasia that has hit main grain ...https://www.intellinews.com/kazakhstan-set-to-lose-quarter-of-grain-crop-as-drought-h…Afghanistan- 'Snow & rainfall were nearly half their normal levels in parts of the country' 'As dry spells become more regular, aid interventions will need to adjust, said theFAO’s Aryal: “Are we going to respond to a drought every year?”' 35/x https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature/2021/6/2/as-drought-looms-afghanistan-faces-another-migration-crisisAsia earlier this year- 'China's agriculture authority is ramping up efforts to ensure ample food supply inChina amid extreme weather conditions this year that have posed challenges to the

nation's food production in some areas' 36/x Agriculture officials work to ensure food supply after floods damage c…China's agriculture authority is ramping up efforts to ensure ample food supply inChina amid extreme weather conditions this year that have posed challenges to thenation's food production in some a…https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202107/30/WS6103a913a310efa1bd6658fb.htmlChina’s Henan province, was hit by a year’s worth of rain -more than 2 feet- in just 3days, impacting 2.4 million acres of cropland The province accounts ~1/3 of the national wheat supply & around a tenth of thenation’s corn, vegetable & pork 37/x Granary of China faces flood disruption, close to 1 million hectares aff…Henan province accounts for almost a third of China’s wheat supply and around atenth of the nation’s corn, vegetable and pork production, but the impact of recentfloods have raised food security an…https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3142728/china-floods-food-sec…Taiwan- 'Rainfall in the seven months through February was less than half the historicaverage', where ' Farmers who need to flood paddies to raise rice, lotus root and otherthirsty crops have been hit hard' 38/x

Taiwan rations water, drills extra wells amid record drought - 660 NEWSTAIPEI, Taiwan — Some households in Taiwan are going without running water twodays a week after a months-long drought dried up the island’s reservoirs and apopular tourist lake. Authorities are dri…https://www.660citynews.com/2021/05/07/taiwan-rations-water-drills-extra-wells-amid-r…Beyond dramatic one-off events, what is emerging is emerging is a pattern ofincreased volatility in weather that further burdens farmers. Widely referred to as ‘wild weather’, ‘wacky weather’ or ‘crazy weather’ ...but rarely discussed in the context of climate change. 39/x

A more specific recurring pattern is ‘whiplash’ between drought and extreme rain,often leading to dramatic flooding that poses unique challenges, particularly whereirrigation is not available, or in already flood prone regions. 40/x Double-whammy weather: Study identifies increased frequency of con…Like an undulating seesaw, weather in some regions swings from drought to heavyrain under the weight of climate-induced changes, according to an analysispublished in Geophysical Research Letters. T…https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/05/14/double-whammy-weather-study-identifies-…

• • •Extreme weather also disrupts food transportation: 'Wildfires in British Columbia continue to disrupt Prairie grain movement' 'all trainmovement, including for grain, through British Columbia’s wildfire-ravaged southernInterior, is “hit & miss” 41/x https://www.manitobacooperator.ca/news-opinion/news/lytton-bridge-reopened-but-grain-movement-hit-and-miss/'Ships leaving the Argentine grains hub of Rosario on the Parana River are having tocut cargoes by 25% due to severely low water ... The Parana, which carries some 80%of Argentina's farm exports, is at a 77-year low level amid prolonged dryness' 42/x EXCLUSIVE Historic low river levels force Argentine grains ships to cu…Ships leaving the Argentine grains hub of Rosario on the Parana River are havingto cut cargoes by 25% due to severely low water levels, the head of the local portschamber said on Friday, with no re…https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/exclusive-historic-low-river-levels-force-argent…

'Key U.S. Crop Export Elevator Damaged in Hurricane Ida' 'A grain elevator damaged by Hurricane Ida in Reserve, Louisiana is responsible fornearly 9% of America’s bulk seaborne exports of corn, soybeans and wheat so far in2021' 43/x https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-31/cargill-s-damaged-grain-elevator-exported-9-of-key-u-s-cropsExtreme heat kills farm workers 'People laboring in the fields “are being used as a human shield to buffer the rest ofthe country against the most violent effects of climate change”' 44/x Overheated, Underprotected: Climate Change Is Killing U.S. Farmwork…Record heatwaves have caused fatalities for laborers who plant and harvest U.S.crops. A lack of federal standards and policies makes it difficult to protect theseagricultural workers.https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/overheated-underprotected-climate-change-is-killing-u-s…Wildfires disrupt irrigation “When we arrive at a Mad Max scenario, yes, irrigation will likely be needed" But 'Wildfires burning synthetic materials have leached carcinogenic substances... &extreme heat causes power outages, which shut off water' 45/x

The Megadrought is Just One Factor Driving Up the Price of Your Brea…A perfect storm of trouble—extreme dry conditions, a volatile commodity market,and climbing expenses—have millers and bakers passing on rising costs tocustomers. Last spring,...https://m.northcoastjournal.com/NewsBlog/archives/2021/07/21/the-megadrought-is-ju…Climate change exacerbated wildfires are also making farms too risky to insure. 46/x As wildfires worsen, more California farms are deemed too risky to ins…Stu Smith got an email from his insurance company last summer with some badnews: His premium was more than quadrupling. Smith is the co-owner of SmithMadrone, a wine operation in the mountains near…https://grist.org/agriculture/as-wildfires-worsen-more-california-farms-are-deemed-too-r…Hot, dry conditions bolster grasshopper populations, adding to drought misery- 'For a fourth year in a row, Manitoba's grasshopper population is on the rise andcausing more issues for farmers already struggling to make it through drought' 47/x https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-grasshopper-surge-1.6126979All of which breeds despair, "Extreme stress, desperation" "We know producers [whose] crops this year aren't any higher than the stubble...There is no yield. Farmers are in contracts for their seed & grain they're not going tobe able to fulfil." 48/x

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/saskatchewan-farmers-dry-crops-mental-health-1.6118254“We are seeing a lot of despair right now, a lot of fear, a lot of anxiety" “We've got a lot of multi-generational farmers that are worried, ‘Am I going to be theone this year that can't make this farm last and sustain?’" 49/x Drought stresses crops — and farmers, tooAs the drought lingers in much of the state, there is growing concern about mentalhealth challenges faced by farmers and other people in rural Minnesota.https://www.mprnews.org/story/2021/08/25/drought-puts-stress-on-farmersAll of this to say the present is bad. But as highlighted in Part 2, the 𝙣𝙚𝙖𝙧 future is looking much, much worse without adramatic course shift. #ActNow #ClimateCrisis #foodblogger 50/xPart 2: Warnings If this seems repetitive - that’s partly the point: We have so, so many warnings from so many agencies, corporations & researchersthat we simply can't afford to ignore them any longer.We begin with market intelligence analysis firms. 51/xTridge a market intel firm operating in 40 countries, with clients including DeutscheBank, FAO, the Singapore Food Agency, the Australian Dept of Agriculture & WaterServices, Nestle & Unilever, recently issued the following stark warnings. 52/x

Climate events and changing weather patterns are already impacting f…Following the UN's latest report regarding the impact of global warming evidencefrom Tridge shows how climate events and changing weather patterns are alreadyimpacting food crops and…https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9347764/climate-events-and-changing-weather-patt…"Due to extreme weather conditions, the agriculture supply chain is likely toexperience continuous disruptions, leading to long-term price fluctuations inagricultural products across the world." 53/x Climate events and changing weather patterns are already impacting f…Following the UN's latest report regarding the impact of global warming evidencefrom Tridge shows how climate events and changing weather patterns are alreadyimpacting food crops and…https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9347764/climate-events-and-changing-weather-patt…"If this trend continues for the next few years, the global society will encounter theissue of “Survival,” unprecedented food shortage, & agflation” 54/x

Climate events and changing weather patterns are already impacting f…Following the UN's latest report regarding the impact of global warming evidencefrom Tridge shows how climate events and changing weather patterns are alreadyimpacting food crops and…https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9347764/climate-events-and-changing-weather-patt…Gro-Intelligence, named as one of Time Magazine’s 100 most influential companies &led by Morgan Stanley's former commodities VP also details how recent 'Climate-related disasters struck one after another, impacting crop production around theworld.' 55/x Agriculture and Climate Markets in 2021 and Beyond | Gro IntelligenceAgriculture and Climate Markets in 2021 and Beyondhttps://gro-intelligence.com/insights/articles/agriculture-and-climate-markets-in-2021-a…'After years in a row of global climate “anomalies" & lower than expected cropproduction, it seems prudent to reinforce preparations, in 2021 & beyond, to managefor these new climate & production norms & the anomalies that will develop fromhere on' 56/x

Agriculture and Climate Markets in 2021 and Beyond | Gro IntelligenceAgriculture and Climate Markets in 2021 and Beyondhttps://gro-intelligence.com/insights/articles/agriculture-and-climate-markets-in-2021-a…Consulting giant McKinsey recently detailed how the global food system is vulnerableto climate change due to dependence on a handful of grains, geographicconcentration of production, limited grain storage, and other factors. 57/x https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/will-the-worlds-breadbaskets-become-less-reliableWe also have warnings from researcher scientists at NASA- “The potential risk of multi-breadbasket failure is increasing. All of these things arehappening at the same time.” 58/x Climate Change Threatens the World’s Food Supply, United Nations W…The world's land is being exploited at an “unprecedented” rate, a United Nationsreport on climate change warns, putting pressure on food production andamplifying the risk of mass migration.https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/climate/climate-change-food-supply.htmlAnd NOAA- Noting the increasing odds “of a devastating food system shock”, particularly in lightof “unprecedented weather extremes that have rocked the world recently” 59/x

How easily the climate crisis can become global chaosAfter months of one extreme weather event after another, it’s hard to imagine howclimate impacts could get any worse.https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/570284-how-easily-the-climate-crisis-ca…Peer reviewed research in turn points towards a long list of rapidly escalating,converging crises for food production, all exacerbated by climate change. 60/xOne of the most off-cited changes to food systems arising from climate changeinvolves shifting climatic zones -off-cited specifically because it is incessantly & misleadingly used to argue that“We’ll be able to grow more food in northern regions!” 61/xIn fact, adaptive crop migration has already been widespread, BUT “Expanding agriculture into new areas is extremely environmentally damaging,decreasing carbon storage, harming water quality, reducing wildlife habitat, andbiodiversity” 62/x Climate adaptation by crop migrationMany studies have estimated the adverse effects of climate change on crop yields,however, this literature almost universally assumes a constant geographicdistribution of crops in the future. Moveme…https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15076-4

Furthermore, our current climate change trajectory will lead us to a situationcharacterized by “more than a third of current global food production falling into conditions in whichno food is produced today – that is, out of safe climatic space.” 63/x Climate change to impact one third of food production regionsStudy highlights global regions projected to be most affected by climate change –and worryingly, they are those least capable of adapting.https://www.newfoodmagazine.com/news/147964/climate-change-threatens-one-third-…And finally, those who focus solely on the adaptive benefits of shifting of climaticzones inevitably overlook the increasingly dramatic impacts from extreme weatherdetailed elsewhere in this thread. 64/xResearch also points towards 'A global observation of an ongoing atmosphericdrying... since the early 2000s' "We believe a climate change-driven increase in atmospheric drying will reduce plantproductivity & crop yields" 65/x Atmospheric drying will lead to lower crop yields, shorter trees across…In recent years, this concerning phenomenon has been on the rise, and U of Mresearchers predict it will amplify even more in the coming decades as climatechange intensifies.https://twin-cities.umn.edu/news-events/atmospheric-drying-will-lead-lower-crop-yields-…“evapotranspiration has increased by about 10% since 2003, which is more thanpreviously estimated, & is mostly due to warming temperatures” 'As the world warms, evapotranspiration will accelerate, speeding up the drying ofland & vegetation' 66/x

Satellites Show How Earth’s Water Cycle Is Ramping Up as Climate Wa…NASA scientists have studied 17 years of gravity observations of our planet tounderstand how the global water cycle is changing.https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/satellites-show-how-earth-s-water-cycle-is-ramping-up…India provides an important example of what these trends will exacerbate- 'huge swaths of [India] will run out of groundwater sooner than expected. Wintercrop harvests are at risk of decreasing by 20% overall, and 68% in the over-exploitedregions' 67/x India's Groundwater Is In Trouble. And It Could Cause a Food Shortag…A recent study found that India's groundwater is depleting, and this could spelldoom for some of the country's most important crops.https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/indias-groundwater-is-in-trouble-and-it-could-cause-a-…Topsoil loss & desertification are growing concerns in many areas 'If soil continues to erode at current rates, U.S. farmers could lose a half-inch oftopsoil by 2035—more than 8x the amount of topsoil lost during the Dust Bowl' 68/x

National Soil Erosion Rates on Track to Repeat Dust Bowl-era Losses …Unhealthy farming practices and more extreme weather spurred by climate changewill lead to an increased rate of soil erosion across the United States in the comingdecades.https://www.ucsusa.org/about/news/national-soil-erosion-rates-track-repeat-dust-bowl-…Desertification is a huge climate change exacerbated threat in many key growingregions including: Spain (https://www.ft.com/content/0d38e8d3-3f20-4818-8751-740d05f8ac13), and Italy (Jim Baird@JimBair62221006Replying to @JimBair62221006'Record heatwaves, droughts devastate Italy agriculture' One fifth of Italy at risk of desertification. #Italy #ClimateCrisis #foodRecord heatwaves, droughts devastate Italy agricultu…Record heatwaves and droughts have sparked fires across Italy this summer.A local farmers’ association …youtube.com4:02 AM · Aug 21, 202151 4 Copy link to TweetTweet your reply) 69/xClimate change -together with other factors- poses a significant risk for pollinatorsthat are critical for food production. ‘three-quarters of the crops grown in the world need pollinators to give a full yield’ 70/x

David Wallace-Wells@dwallacewellsReplying to @dwallacewells“I’m sure you’re familiar with the figures, but the importance of pollinators to humans is, you know, three-quarters of the crops grown in the world need pollinators to give a full yield. … With a growing population, it’s really hard to see how that’s all going to stack up.”2:12 AM · Aug 1, 202146 1 Copy link to TweetTweet your replyClimate change exacerbated food shocks may also have disproportionate impacts onfood prices due to a concentrated food system, in combination with inevitableprotectionist actions. 71/x Food export restrictions by a few countries could skyrocket global foo…Recent events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, locust infestations, drought andlabour shortages have disrupted food supply chains, endangering food security inthe process. A recent study published in…https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/812061'restriction by only three key exporters of each crop would increase the price of wheatby 70%, while maize and rice would rise by 40% & 60%. When combining this withpotential local shocks that occurred last year, the prices would nearly double' 72/x Food export restrictions by a few countries could skyrocket global foo…Recent events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, locust infestations, drought andlabour shortages have disrupted food supply chains, endangering food security inthe process. A recent study published in…https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/812061And research demonstrates an increasing likelihood that weather extremes mayoverwhelm food reserves 'In some affected regions, such as South Asia, the amount of food required to offsetsuch an effect is triple the region’s current food reserves.' 73/x

Extreme climate events increase risk of global...Climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity and spatial extentof extreme climate events, and thus is a key concern for food production. However,food insecurity is usually analys…https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00335-4Finally, a wildcard- several studies point towards the fact that “tipping could be imminent” - if tippingpoints are crossed, we may enter a new domain of significant & abruptregional/global food insecurity 74/x Studies add to concern about climate tippingTwo climate model studies document the probability of climate tipping in Earthsubsystems. The findings support the urgency of restricting CO2 emissions asabrupt climate changes might be less predic…https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/643924Part 3 - Choosing our Future A notable impact of all of the extremes detailed above is that we already experienceclimate change related food price shocks on a regular basis as detailed in this thread- 75/x

Jim Baird@JimBair62221006The #ClimateCrisis, buried in aggregate economic indicators: A spike in inflation in #India "caused by food prices...a sharp rise in the price of vegetables... pulses... attributed to supply shocks caused largely by extreme weather events" #foodsecurityInflation at 5-yr-high, vegetables 60% expensive; to hurt economic recov…To put the 7.35% number in context, India’s nominal GDP is expected to grow at 7.5% in 2019-20. This means nominal incomes can be expected …hindustantimes.com4:07 AM · Jan 19, 2020417 24 Copy link to TweetTweet your replyFurthermore many recent climate change related price spikes have impacted keystaples and comfort foods for those in wealthy countries -e.g. coffee, beer, wine76/x

Jim Baird@JimBair62221006#Brazil- 'World’s Oranges, Coffee at Risk as Brazil Runs Out of Water' 'Rainfall in Brazil this year has been the scarcest since data started being recorded in 1931', driving up food prices as crops are threatened' #ClimateCrisis #Brasil #crops #foodWater Crisis Is Compounding an Inflation Time Bomb in Brazil - BNN Bloombergbnnbloomberg.ca9:13 PM · Jun 28, 202189 5 Copy link to TweetTweet your replyMore broadly, we are already witnessing severe regional impacts (e.g. the risk offamine in Madagascar), and Are aggressively, rapidly destabilizing a climate that has been the fundamental basisfor all of agriculture. This is our baseline.77/xTherefore, though we cannot make definitive statements on global food futures, weare playing a very risky game, in which the best case scenario is a worsening versionof the present: A growing risk of famine & food shortage in vulnerable regions & food inflationelsewhere 78/x'The FAO on Thursday cut its estimate for world grain stockpiles, partly because of aworsening wheat-crop outlook amid prolonged drought in North America &unfavorable weather in other major growers such as Russia.' 79/x https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-02/global-food-prices-jump-back-near-decade-high-on-harvest-woes*This is now* "We will need very good weather” going into next season

“If anything on the supply side fails to meet expectations, we could stay in this high-price situation for much longer” (can we really count on 'very good weather'?) 80/x https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-02/global-food-prices-jump-back-near-decade-high-on-harvest-woesAn important point is that we will still see localized bumper crops. All things climatechange are non-linear, but agricultural disasters will continue to occur withincreasing frequency & intensity, tracking overall trends in extreme weather. 81/x A world of hurt: 2021 climate disasters raise alarm over food securityEnvironmental science and conservation newshttps://news.mongabay.com/2021/08/a-world-of-hurt-2021-climate-disasters-raise-alar…All of this raises the question: can we just adapt our way out of this? The reality is that we NEED to adapt. Some changes to our climate are alreadyentrenched, and ramping up adaptation is already a reality. 82/x

Jim Baird@JimBair62221006Western #USA "It’s not a drought anymore. We have to shift that mindset & say, drought is a normal thing, it’s our reality. If we have a wet year, we have to think about how we can protect & cache as much water as we can, store as much water as we can"A Water Expert Lays Out the West’s Risky Future in the Megadrought Era"Eventually, we’ll either have to adapt, or we’ll break."gizmodo.com1:05 AM · Jul 29, 2021209 13 Copy link to TweetTweet your replyA full suite of measures will inevitably come into play, from conventional to exotic,including: regenerative agriculture, GMOs, indoor farming, seaweed farming & more.As part of this, we should also focus on low-hanging fruit like food waste. 83/x 17% of food produced globally wasted every year, U.N. report estimate…The waste is far more than previous reports had indicated.https://globalnews.ca/news/7676470/global-food-waste-un-report/Wherever we can, we should deploy measures that offer potential for simultaneousmitigation of climate change, adaptation & other benefits - including notably

regenerative techniques. 84/x Regenerative Annual Cropping @ProjectDrawdown #ClimateSolutionsBuilding on conservation agriculture with additional practices, regenerative annualcropping can include compost application, green manure, and organic production. Itreduces emissions, increases soi…https://drawdown.org/solutions/regenerative-annual-croppingThe incredible inefficiency of cycling crops through animals, & using agricultural landfor non-food purposes will also come under much greater scrutiny Will we keep looking the other way as growing numbers starve while we fatten ourcattle? 85/x David Wallace-Wells@dwallacewells“In the United States, roughly 10% of agricultural land grows non-animal products eaten by people. The rest of agricultural land is for grazing, animal feed, biofuel, or industrial feedstocks.” austinvernon.eth.link/blog/ruralfutu…6:54 PM · Aug 26, 2021191 15 Copy link to TweetTweet your replyAnd on an individual level, many can and should take steps to grow their own foodand support local agriculture - there are many great examples of local initiatives togrow food, support biodiversity and build community here (thread) 86/x

Jim Baird@JimBair62221006"Everything out of a park space is a teachable moment, whether it be trees, trails, bees or vegetables. That's what's most important to me — that we're raising awareness about sustainability and agriculture" #ClimateAction #localfood #learning #natureThe Reason 'Free Food Forests' Are Popping Up Around The USUS free food forests continue to grow, with the main reason being community; the forests feed the community and raise awareness about …mashed.com11:00 PM · Mar 12, 2021228 13 Copy link to TweetTweet your replyAll that said, adaptation alone will NEVER be enough - many of the solutions thatreceive the most press are effectively heavily marketed techno fixes with lack ofclarity around their effectiveness, scalability and costs. 87/x

Jim Baird@JimBair62221006Replying to @JimBair62221006"While there is a lot of discussion about genetically modified sources of nutrition we are still in the embryonic stage, & it is unclear whether & to what extent these research trajectories will be viable for mass production." -@ShahramAzhar #AgTwitterAs climate change disrupts supply chains, American life is poised to cha…Thanks to capitalism's inability to account for climate disasters, future economic turmoil is all but guaranteedsalon.com1:30 AM · Aug 7, 202121 1 Copy link to TweetTweet your reply& There are limits to adaptation- “We have to breed crops for conditions that we don’t even know right now what theyare going to be. Things are changing so rapidly that we need to be able to anticipatewhat the problems are before they happen” 88/x A world of hurt: 2021 climate disasters raise alarm over food securityEnvironmental science and conservation newshttps://news.mongabay.com/2021/08/a-world-of-hurt-2021-climate-disasters-raise-alar…

We have already hit some of these limits- 89/x Jim Baird@JimBair62221006Replying to @JimBair62221006"'We're in trouble' Ag expert warns there's no adapting if this summer's 'heat dome' becomes the norm There are limits to adaptation We are already hitting some of those limits & our foot is on the gas, much worse to come without urgent climate action'We're in trouble:' Ag expert warns there's no adapting if this summer's 'heat dome' becomes the...financialpost.com11:25 PM · Jul 28, 202147 5 Copy link to TweetTweet your replyAnd climate change continues to throw new wrenches into our food system -asdetailed in this thread- all of which will make adaptation increasingly less viable. 90/x

Jim Baird@JimBair62221006I previously documented 20 mechanisms through which climate change is 𝘢𝘭𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘥𝘺 disrupting food production. Below I am adding to the list including several newly documented mechanisms. *thread*Jim Baird @JimBair62221006Replying to @JimBair622210061. Heat stress reducing crop yields bit.ly/2UFEaGC 2. Heat stress on farmers (sometimes fatal) bit.ly/2wyoV4w, tmsnrt.rs/2ShSodx 3. Heat stress on livestock (often fatal) bit.ly/2UtHP9N, bit.ly/2SjK0Kw, bit.ly/2RWCfLq4:30 AM · Nov 28, 2020414 18 Copy link to TweetTweet your replySo we MUST mitigate -above all else. All the adaptation in the world will not be enough to secure global food security in theface of unmitigated climate change. We must act now, with deep, rapid emission cuts & other actions to draw downGHGs. 91/x Jim Baird@JimBair62221006Replying to @JimBair62221006"this information is telling us that, really, the situation is even worse than we thought. & it also tells us that there's hope because if we are able to slow down our emissions... then we could make this situation much less bad than it would be otherwise"New Study Links Rate Of Emissions To Extreme Weat…NPR's Ari Shapiro speaks with Dr. Jennifer Francis, an expert who studies disproportionate Earth warming, …npr.org12:00 AM · Jul 31, 20218 2 Copy link to TweetTweet your reply

The lack of attention to this issue, & the lack of action by our elected leaders isnothing short of astonishing & is emblematic of their breathtaking incompetence onthe broader #ClimateCrisis Please share this widely on & off #ClimateTwitter & demand urgent change.92/xFor more on how climate change exacerbated extreme weather has recently impactedagriculture, please follow me, and/or see the following threads 2020 (Jim Baird@JimBair62221006Replying to @JimBair62221006This is How Climate Change Impacted Food Security Around the Globe in 2020 *thread* #ClimateChange #foodsecurity #agriculture #food1:10 AM · Jan 9, 202172 6 Copy link to TweetTweet your reply) 2019 (

Jim Baird@JimBair62221006This is How Climate Change Impacted Food Production Around the Globe in 2019 If you eat, please retweet And please read this - if you haven't, it is almost certainly worse than you think.Jim Baird @JimBair62221006Replying to @JimBair62221006*North America* #UnitedStates: The midwest was plagued with heavy rain, leading to flooding & causing major challenges with corn, soybeans & other crops nyti.ms/2swW95K This was widely documented by farmers themselves: #noplant19 #ClimateChange Impacts on #Food 2/329:41 PM · Jan 11, 2020218 11 Copy link to TweetTweet your reply) <end>Please help boost this thread which thoroughly details the need for urgent#ClimateAction to address food security. @GretaThunberg @jasonhickel @EricHolthaus @AOC @ClimateHuman @AlexandriaV2005 @MarkRuffalo @WeDontHaveTime @AnandWrites

Jim Baird@JimBair62221006Food security and climate change: a critical warning for humanity- Thread synthesizing peer-reviewed research, current news, market intelligence analysis & more. #CodeRed #ActNow #ClimateCrisis #foodblogger #foodsecurity #news 1/x4:28 PM · Sep 3, 20212.5K87 Copy link to TweetTweet your reply