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CIPHER 2025 Current Innovations in Probability-BasedHousehold Internet Panel ResearchCenter for Economic and Social ResearchUniversity of Southern California February 26 - 28, 2025
Updated: 24 February 2025 CIPHER 2025 Agenda All times are in Eastern Standard Time Wednesday, 26 February 2025 12:30 PM Check In 1:00 PM UAS Workshop 2:30 PM Coffee Break UAS Session A Applications of UAS Data 2:45 PM Session Moderator: Kayla de la Haye (USC Center for Economic and Social Research) Natasha Wasim (USC Department of Population and Public Health Sciences) Using panel data to assess changes in food insecurity following the end of pandemic-era SNAP benefits in Los Angeles County: Predictors and policy implications Wändi Bruine de Bruin (University of Southern California) Medicare Part D beneficiaries’ self-reported barriers to switching plans and making plan comparisons at all: Insights from interviews and surveys Michael Traugott (Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan) Motivated Reasoning and Acceptance of Poll Results on a Health Policy Issue Shaun Gilyard (Coastal Carolina University) Budgeting for Bills: The Impact on Daily Spending UAS Session B Applications: Experiments and Technology in Probability Panels 3:45 PM Session Moderator: Amie Rapaport (USC Center for Economic and Social Research) Elizabeth Suhay (School of Public Affairs, American University) Jennifer Hochschild (Harvard University) Democrats and Republicans Grant Scientists Authority if They Think Scientific Consensus Supports Their Policy Preferences Evan W. Sandlin (USC Center for Economic and Social Research) Perception and "Reality:" How Three Self-Report Measures of Physical Activity Compare to Data from Wearables Shiyang Sima (Purdue University) Detection of Infectious Disease using Wearable Sensors - Experience from UAS’s American Life in Realtime Andrew Parker (RAND Corporation) Developing a monthly panel of extreme weather experiences for testing a theory of adult age differences in emotional well-being 4:45 PM Closing
Updated: 24 February 2025 Thursday, 27 February 2025 8:15 AM Check In and Breakfast 8:55 AM Logistical Introduction 9:00 AM Welcome Address Session 1 Performance of Probability-Based Panels 9:15 AM Session Moderator: Arie Kapteyn (USC Center for Economic and Social Research) Gregor Čehovin (Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ljubljana) Comparing Probability-Based and Nonprobability Web Panels to Traditional Probability-Based Surveys: Analyzing Bias in Survey Estimates – Virtual Presentation Vera Messing (HUN-REN Center for Social Sciences; CEU Democracy Institute) Bence Ságvári (HUN-REN Centre for Social Sciences (Budapest, Hungary); Indiana University Bloomington) Comparing online panels recruited through probability-based face-to-face and push-to-web surveys Andrew Mercer (Pew Research Center) The performance of probability-based online panels in election polling: Lessons from 2020 and 2024 Alexandra Cronberg (Verian) Comparison of probabilistic and non-probabilistic samples in the European Training and Learning Survey: To what extent are there systematic differences? Session 2 Performance of Probability-Based Panels: Sample Blending 10:15 AM Session Moderator: Evan Sandlin (USC Center for Economic and Social Research) Randall K. Thomas (AccuSurvey Consulting) Double the Data, Double the Insight?: Blending Two Different Probability-based Samples with Differing Levels of Bias Megan A. Hendrich (Ipsos Public Affairs) Sample Smoothie: Blending Probability-based and Non-probability Samples with Differing Bias Andy Peytchev (RTI) Evaluating Error from the Addition of Web Panel Data to a National Probability-Based Interviewer-Administered Survey 11:00 AM Coffee Break Session 3 Introducing the THRIVE Panel 11:15 AM Session Moderator: Jeremy Burke (USC Center for Economic and Social Research) Katherine Carman (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) Introducing THRIVE: Goals, Structure, and Quarterly Metrics Alycia Chin (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) THRIVE for Survey Methodology: Involvement in Household Financial Decisions and Perceptions of the Securities Markets David Zimmerman (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) Investor Testing on Fee Meters
Updated: 24 February 2025 Jonathan Cook (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) Trust in financial services 12:00 PM Lunch Lunch Discussion DECIPHER: Do End-users Consign Importance to ‘Probability-based’ for Household Electronic Research 12:45 PM Session Moderator: Benjamin Phillips (Social Research Centre) Carina Cornesse (GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences) Marcel Das (Centerdata & Tilburg University (The Netherlands)) David Dutwin (NORC at the University of Chicago) Jon A. Krosnick (Stanford University) Anna Lethborg (Social Research Centre) Cameron McPhee (SSRS) Andrew Mercer (Pew Research Center) Dina Neiger (Social Research Centre) Online probability-based panels regularly compete with cheaper and faster nonprobability-based panels in a highly competitive environment where “value for money” is often the main selection criterion. Our ability to convey the value of using probability panels is therefore of critical importance. Numerous benchmarking studies have consistently demonstrated the greater accuracy of estimates from probability panels compared to those from nonprobability panels. However, this is not always a convincing or clear enough argument for the use of probability panels. Messaging needs to be tailored to end-users’ technical expertise, interest and research purposes. The aims of the panel discussion are to encourage reflection and conversation about how we demonstrate the value of probability panels to end-users. Bringing client- and supplier-side perspectives from across the globe, this interactive session will aim to translate our commitment to quality and transparency into enhanced perceptions of relevance and utility by end-users. Session 4 Innovations in Data Collection Methods in Probability Panels 1:45 PM Session Moderator: Marcel Das (Centerdata & Tilburg University (The Netherlands)) Lisa Bondo Andersen (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich) Investigating Components of Tourangeau’s Cognitive Response Model in Survey Responses through Mouse Tracking Nikki L. Graf (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) Testing Self-Administration of the Consumer Expenditure Diary Survey in a Probability-Based Online Panel Ailin Liu (LMU) Examining Survey Mouse Movements as Indicators of Individual Cognitive Functioning Marco Angrisani (USC Center for Economic and Social Research) Caregivers’ Daily Experiences Measured by Online Surveys, EMA, and Fitbit Data: Documenting Differential Participation in a Population Representative Sample Francis (Frank) Graves (EKOS Research Associates Inc.) Evolving Impacts of Shifts in Institutional Trust on Panel Representation – Virtual Presentation 2:45 PM Coffee Break
Updated: 24 February 2025 Session 5 Data Quality in Panels: Question Format, Open-Ended Questions, and Attention Checks 3:00 PM Session Moderator: Jan Karem Höhne (DZHW, Leibniz University Hannover) Sebastian Lundmark (The SOM Institute, University of Gothenburg) Jon A. Krosnick (Stanford University) Does Succeeding on Attention Checks Moderate Treatment Effects? Ting Yan (NORC at the University of Chicago) The Effectiveness of Question Format to Reduce Motivated Misreporting Within and Across Waves of a Longitudinal Survey Gradon Nicholls (University of Waterloo) Using Large Language Models to Catch Mistakes in Coding of Open-Ended Survey Questions Darby Steiger (SSRS) Beyond the Numbers: Methodological Considerations for Integrating Qualitative Research into a Probability Panel Session 6 Sustaining Panelists' Interest and Engagement 4:00 PM Session Moderator: Gary Mottola (FINRA Foundation) Kyle Berta (SSRS) Whiplash? Measuring the impact of including numerous unrelated topics on Omnibus surveys conducted on a probability-based panel JoNell Strough (West Virginia University) Can Taylor Swift Boost Respondent Engagement in Longitudinal, Online Panels? Anna Lethborg (Social Research Centre) Making Membership Meaningful: Strategies for fostering a sense of belonging and commitment among probability-based panellists Margie Strickland (Ipsos Public Affairs) Unlocking Rich Insights: Navigating the Challenges of Sustaining Longitudinal Passive Behavioral Panels 5:30 PM Reception (sponsored by the FINRA Foundation)
Updated: 24 February 2025 Friday, 28 February 2025 8:15 AM Check In and Breakfast 8:55 AM Logistical Introduction 9:00 AM Welcome Address Session 7 Innovations to Improve Panel Management 9:10 AM Session Moderator: Ipek Bilgen (NORC at the University of Chicago) Michael Link (Independent Researcher) Harnessing the Power of Large Language Models (LLMs) in Probability-Based Survey Panels: Opportunities, Challenges, and Navigation Strategies Jan Karem Höhne (DZHW, Leibniz University Hannover) How does smartphone participation in probability-based web surveys differ across Europe? Benjamin Phillips (Social Research Centre) Using propensity scores for adaptive in-field management Nick Bertoni (Ipsos Public Affairs) Amplifying the Voice of Panel Members with the help of Gen AI to Improve Recruitment Materials Session 8 Issues in Recruitment I 10:10 AM Session Moderator: Marco Angrisani (USC Center for Economic and Social Research) Joke Depraetere (Ipsos KnowledgePanel Europe) Recruiting Hard-to-Reach Populations in KnowledgePanel Europe: Strategies and Challenges – Virtual Presentation Ellyn Maese (Gallup) Practical Lessons for Recruiting Hispanic Respondents to Probability-Based Panels Andreja Praček (University of Ljubljana) – Virtual Presentation Optimal Recruitment Strategy for a Probability-Based Web Panel – Cost and Error Integration 11:00 AM Coffee Break Session 9 Applications of Probability-Based Panels 11:20 AM Session Moderator: Andrew Parker (RAND Corporation) Joris Mulder (Centerdata - Tilburg University) Online Behavioral Experiments in the LISS panel using oTree Marcel Voia (University of Orleans, France) I Am So Tired! I Don't Know What To Do! Fatigue and Financial Literacy: Results from a Randomized Experiment Duygu Basaran Sahin (RAND Corporation) Capturing adults’ familiarity with financial fraud through natural language processing: Relationships with targeting, engagement, and victimization Russell Castañeda (Verian Belgium) Utilising online probability panels for pan-European policy research on digital skills and labour market transition
Updated: 24 February 2025 12:30 PM Lunch Lunch Keynote Lifting the Veil: Considering Deep Transparency in Household Internet Panels 1:00 PM David Dutwin (NORC at the University of Chicago) Session 10 Engagement, Participation Rates, and Attrition Risk 2:00 PM Session Moderator: Andrew Mercer (Pew Research) Emilio Rivera (Gallup) SMS Survey Recruitment Methods on Members of a Probability-Based Panel: Assessing a Decade of SMS Research Using the Gallup Panel Jasmine Mitchell (ISER, University of Essex) How do household panel members react to multiple requests for different types of additional data over time? Mickey Jackson (SSRS) Building a Real-Time Attrition Risk Score for Probability Panelists Htay-Wah Saw (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor) Analyzing the causal effect of survey burden on nonresponse in probability-based online panels among new panel respondents Session 11 Issues in Recruitment II 3:00 PM Session Moderator: Marco Angrisani (USC Center for Economic and Social Research) Casey Eggleston (U.S. Census Bureau) QR Codes in the Census Household Panel Mansour Fahimi (Marketing Systems Group (MSG)) Beyond Incentives and Follow Up Attempts - Pragmatic Methods for Increasing Response Rates – Virtual Presentation Ipek Bilgen (NORC at the University of Chicago) The effect of equitable contact mailing strategies on panel recruitment, retention, and data quality Ashley Kirzinger (KFF) Innovating by including "pay-as-you-go" phones in combination with household panels – Virtual Presentation 4:00 PM Closing Remarks
CIPHER SPEAKERS David Dutwin is Senior Vice President of Strategic Initiatives and Chief Scientistof AmeriSpeak at NORC at the University of Chicago. His roles at NORC includeserving as Executive Director of the AmeriSpeak Panel Operations group aswell as AmeriStats and Methods group; and of Amplify AAPI, NORC’sprobability panel of Asian Americans, Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders;and Director of the Center for Panel Survey Sciences. He was President ofAAPOR in 2018-19 and Conference Chair in 2016. David is a surveymethodologist, researching and publishing in the areas of political polling,probability vs. nonprobability samples, the application of Big Data in samplingand weighting, best practices in probability panels, and sampling of lowincidence populations. He is a Senior Fellow at the Program for OpinionResearch and Election Studies at the University of Pennsylvania, where he haslectured on political polling and survey research in 2015.Duygu Basaran Sahin is a T32 Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the RANDCenter for the Study of Aging. Trained as a sociologist and demographer,she specializes in population aging, age discrimination, later-lifeemployment, and health disparities research with a focus on racial andethnic inequalities. She is currently conducting research on three areas:perceived workplace ageism among older workers during the Covid19economic crisis; financial fraud knowledge among the older population;and cognitive functioning disparities by sexual orientation among middle-age and older adults. Duygu has extensive experience in using the Healthand Retirement Study. Duygu holds a B.A. in sociology from GalatasarayUniversity (Istanbul/Turkey), an M.A. in Health, Population and Social Policyfrom Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (Paris/France) and aPh.D. in sociology from The CUNY Graduate Center. Duygu is a formerresearch fellow at the CUNY Insitute for Demographic Research and acurrent researcher with the New York Retirement & Disability ResearchCenter.Marco Angrisani (Ph.D., Economics), is a Senior Economist at the Center forEconomic and Social Research and an Associate Research Professor at theEconomics Department at the University of Southern California. His primaryresearch fields are financial economics, labor economics, economics of aging,household economics and caregiving. Angrisani’s research agenda alsofeatures different aspects of survey methodology, from sampling andweighting techniques to measurement properties of questions elicitinghousehold income, wealth, and expenditure. Angrisani is a team member ofthe Understanding America Study and the Gateway to Global Aging DataRepository.Keynote Presenters
Kyle Berta is Director of Panel Products at SSRS. Kyle has worked in surveyresearch for 12 years and has managed a wide range of projects coveringeverything from election polling to market research to large-scale panelbuilding. He currently specializes in work on multi-mode probability-basedpanels and has expertise in their recruitment, maintenance, and healthmonitoring. In his current role he oversees the development and managementof a suite of SSRS Opinion Panel enabled products including the SSRS OpinionPanel Omnibus and SSRS Virtual Insights.Nick Bertoni has over 14 years of experience in public opinion polling with 10+years managing online panels. In his role overseeing KnowledgePanelOperations at Ipsos, Mr. Bertoni is responsible for shaping the strategic visionfor KnowledgePanel management, recruitment, retention, and overallefficiency. Over the course of his career, he has personally managed theexecution of over 100 panel surveys in addition to numerous modes of panelrecruitment. He brings a unique perspective to panel management, havingbeen both a vendor and a client for online panels in the commercial and non-profit sectors.Ipek Bilgen is a Principal Research Methodologist at NORC at the University ofChicago. Bilgen is the Deputy Director of NORC’s Center for Panel SurveySciences and Chief Methodologist of NORC’s AmeriSpeak Panel. She has over19 years of experience in survey research methods and received both herPh.D. and M.S. from the Survey Research and Methodology (SRAM) Program atthe University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Bilgen has published and co-authoredarticles in Journal of Official Statistics, Public Opinion Quarterly, Journal ofSurvey Statistics and Methodology, Survey Practice, Social Currents, SocialScience Computer Review, Field Methods, Journal of Quantitative Methods,SAGE Research Methods, and Quality and Quantity on issues related tointerviewing methodology, multipurpose online panels, internet sampling andrecruitment approaches, cognition and communication, and measurementerror in surveys. She recently completed her term serving as an AssociateEditor of Public Opinion Quarterly (POQ). Bilgen also teaches SurveyMethodology and Survey Questionnaire Design courses at the Irving B. HarrisGraduate School of Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago. Lisa Bondo Andersen began her PhD at the SODA Lab in July 2024 at LMU,Munich. She holds a Master's and Bachelor's degree in Engineering Psychologyfrom Aalborg University, Denmark. Her expertise centers on researching andevaluating user experiences of products in various forms, ranging formgraphical interfaces to physical products or any other product a person mightinteract with. Her skills spans both qualitative and quantitative methods, witha particular focus on quantifying data outputs to simplify researcherworkflows and streamline data collection processes.
Alycia Chin is a Senior Financial Economist with the Office of the InvestorAdvocate. Her research focuses on the psychological and economic factorsthat influence consumers' and investors' financial behavior. Her recent workexamines the efficacy of financial product disclosure, the formation ofconsumer stock market expectations, and the characteristics of individualswho seek out financial education. Prior to joining the SEC, Dr. Chin worked atseveral financial regulators. During her time at the Federal Reserve Board, shecontributed to research on money market funds, residential real estatevalues, and the Great Depression. At the Consumer Financial ProtectionBureau, she led some of the agency’s first experimental research onmortgages and financial disclosure. Finally, at the Public Company AccountingOversight Board, she founded a group conducting behavioral research for thepurpose of regulatory post-implementation review. She holds a B.A. inEconomics and Politics, magna cum laude, from Scripps College and a Ph.D.in Behavioral Decision Research from Carnegie Mellon University.Katherine Carman is a Senior Financial Economist at the Securities andExchange Commission. Her research focuses on financial decision making andbehavioral economics. Katherine is particularly interested in how individuals’beliefs, perceptions, and decision-making processes affect their financialchoices. She is also interested in survey research methods, and has extensiveexperience running surveys in online panels. She received a Ph.D. ineconomics from Stanford University.Russell Castañeda is a Senior Research Executive at Verian Belgium. He workson studies for EU institutions, focusing on vocational education, labour marketdynamics, technological transitions, workforce development, and workingconditions. This work has given him experience with occupational and industrydata. He has also contributed to Eurobarometer surveys on key EU policydomains. During his previous career, he created tools for conducting citizensatisfaction surveys, setting standard practices for evaluating municipalpublic services across various jurisdictions in the Philippines.Gregor Čehovin, PhD, is a researcher at the Centre for Social Informatics,Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia. His recent work inthe field of web survey methodology specializes in studying response quality,grid question layouts, and the challenges associated with online panels.Wändi Bruine de Bruin is Provost Professor of Public Policy, Psychology andBehavioral Science at the University of Southern California, where she directsthe USC Schaeffer Behavioral Science and Policy Initiative. Her researchfocuses on public perceptions of risk, risk communication, and behaviorchange interventions.
Jonathan Cook is a Financial Economist with the Office of the InvestorAdvocate. He is an applied researcher with interests in policy and statisticalmethods. His research spans accounting, economics, finance, and machinelearning and has been published in journals that include Economics Letters,Journal of Accounting and Economics, and Pattern Recognition Letters. Hereceived his PhD in Economics and MA in Mathematical Behavioral Sciencesfrom the University of California at Irvine.Carina Cornesse is a survey methodologist focusing on the development andquality assurance of innovative data collection methods, evaluating thestrengths and limitations of probability-based and nonprobability samples,and panel study recruitment and maintenance. She is currently head of theresearch department "Survey Design and Methodology" at GESIS.Alexandra Cronberg is Director at Verian's International Survey Methods team,based in London. She has over 17 years of experience in social research, builtthrough work on formative and evaluative research and analysis in Europe andAfrica. She previously worked as research methodologist for Kantar Publicbased in Nairobi, Kenya and Lagos, Nigeria. Prior to that she worked in socialresearch in the UK. She holds an MSc in Social Research Methods from LondonSchool of Economics & Political Science and an MA(Hons.) in Economics andSociology from the University of Edinburgh.Marcel Das holds a PhD in Economics from Tilburg University (1998). SinceSeptember 2000 he has been the director of Centerdata, a survey researchinstitute specialized in web-based surveys and applied research, housed atthe campus of Tilburg University (The Netherlands). As a director ofCenterdata Das has managed a large number of national and internationalresearch projects. He coordinated the central development of surveyinstruments for the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe(SHARE) and he is one of the principal investigators of the Dutch MESS project,with the LISS panel as central component, for which Centerdata receivedmajor funding from the Dutch Government. Since February 2009, Das is alsoProfessor of Econometrics and Data collection at Tilburg University. He haspublished a number of scientific publications in international peer-reviewedjournals in the field of statistical and empirical analysis of survey data andmethodological issues in web-based (panel) surveys. Das is member of theAdvisory Council on Methodology and Quality of Statistics Netherlands andmember of six (inter)national scientific advisory boards of large-scale datainfrastructures.
Joke Depraetere, Ph.D., is a Senior Research Expert at Ipsos' KnowledgePanelEurope, based in Leuven, Belgium. With over seven years of experience inscientific research, her expertise spans statistical data analysis, samplingresearch methodology, and the preparation of peer-reviewed scientificarticles and technical reports. Assisting in the launch of IpsosKnowledgePanel Europe, she is responsible for continually refining itsstatistical, methodological, and procedural design and maintenance. Herwork also centers on identifying leading-edge techniques to enhance datavalidity gathered through KnowledgePanel. She authors multi-country andcountry-specific technical notes on methodological design and monitorspanel participation and conducts ad-hoc analyses to ensure panel health,composition, and retention. Casey Eggleston is currently a researcher for the Center for Behavioral ScienceMethods at the U.S. Census Bureau. She previously completed her PhD insocial psychology at the University of Virginia. For the last five years, she hascollaborated with teammates around the Bureau to support the HighFrequency Survey Program which began with the Household Pulse Survey(HPS) in response to COVID and has continued with the development of theHousehold Trends and Opportunities Panel Survey (HTOPS).Mansour Fahimi for over 30 years has been providing statistical expertise andhands-on support for projects from design to delivery, investigating innovativerefinements for survey research methods, and mentoring staff. Mansour workson design and administration of complex surveys, as well as dataenhancement methods, process optimization procedures, and programevaluation initiatives. He has extensive experience with advanced analytics,particularly multivariate procedures for analysis of weighted data fromcomplex surveys. In recent years Dr. Fahimi’s work and research have focusedon improving the inferential possibilities of survey data from compromisedsamples, as well as identifying key drivers of response to surveys.Shaun Gilyard is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Coastal CarolinaUniversity. His research interests include household and consumer finance,consumption and income dynamics, and consumer budgeting behavior. Hehas additional research published on the effects of minimum wages at thelocal, state, and federal level on employment growth. Shaun received his PhDin Economics from West Virginia University in 2024.Nikki Graf is a senior statistician at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in theDivision of Consumer Expenditure Surveys. Her current research focuses onsurvey methods improvements, questionnaire design, and impacts on dataquality and respondent burden. She holds a Ph.D. in sociology from theUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison.
Frank Graves is the founder and CEO of EKOS Research. He has been at theforefront of polling and survey research in Canada for decades. He was afounding board member of CRIC and is a lifetime fellow of CRIC. Mr. Graves isalso a fellow of the CGAI, the University of Calgary School of Public Policy, andseveral other organizations. He is an adjunct professor in the Department ofSociology and Anthropology and teaches a graduate course on the past andfuture of survey methodology. He has also been awarded an HonouraryDoctor of Laws by Carleton University.Megan A. Hendrich is a Survey Methodologist and Associate ResearchScientist at Ipsos Public Affairs. She provides methodological consulting onquestionnaire and study design to government, private, and nonprofit clientsto ensure high-quality, accurate data for probability and non-probabilitysamples. She also helps develop and field research-on-research on surveyquality issues. Megan has an M.A. in Experimental Psychology from MariettaCollege, OH, and she is currently pursuing a Ph.D. in Survey and Data Scienceat the Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland CollegePark.Jennifer Hochschild is the Henry LaBarre Jayne Professor of Government,Professor of African and African American Studies, and Professor of PublicPolicy at Harvard University. She was Chair of Harvard’s GovernmentDepartment from 2016 to 2019, and President of the American PoliticalScience Association in 2015-2016. She was Karl W. Deutsch Guest Professor atBerlin Social Science Center (WZB) in fall 2023. Hochschild’s recent booksinclude Race/Class Conflict and Urban Financial Threat (Russell SageFoundation, 2025), Genomic Politics (Oxford U. Press, 2021), and Do FactsMatter? (co-authored, Oxford University Press, 2015). Current researchaddresses COVID conspiracies and misperceptions, trust in science, and thetrajectories of politicization of technological innovations. Jan Karem Höhne is professor at the Leibniz University Hannover inassociation with the German Centre for Higher Education Research andScience Studies (DZHW) and head of the CS3 lab for Computational Surveyand Social Science. His research focuses on the utilization of new data sourcesand forms for the social sciences. Mickey Jackson leads research and development to create innovativesolutions to weighting, sampling, data collection, and estimation challenges.In addition, he acts as the methodology lead for the SSRS Opinion Panel, anationally representative panel of U.S. adults. He supports projects acrossSSRS in applying advanced analytic methods to improve the accuracy of datacollected across survey modes, sampling frames, and topical areas,integrating traditional survey methods with cutting-edge data sciencesolutions. His current areas of focus include adaptive survey designs,nonprobability and hybrid sampling, small area estimation, modeled sampledesigns, and election polling.
Ashley Kirzinger is director of survey methodology and associate director ofthe Public Opinion and Survey Research Program, where she helps direct theorganization’s polling work and is responsible for overseeing and managingthe survey research process within the organization. This includes designingand implementing survey methodologies, ensuring the accuracy and reliabilityof survey data, and providing guidance on best practices for collecting,analyzing, and interpreting survey data.Jon Krosnick, winner of the lifetime career achievement award from theAmerican Association for Public Opinion Research and the Nevitt SanfordLifetime Achievement Award from the International Society of PoliticalPsychology, is Frederick O. Glover Professor in Humanities and SocialSciences, and Professor of Communication, Political Science, Sustainability,and Psychology at Stanford University, Director of Stanford’s PoliticalPsychology Research Group, and Research Psychologist at the U.S. CensusBureau. He has expertise in questionnaire design and survey researchmethodology, voting behavior and elections, and American public opinion. Hehas taught courses for professionals on survey methods for decades aroundthe world and has served as a methodology consultant to governmentagencies, commercial firms, and academic scholars. He is a world-recognizedexpert on the psychology of attitudes, especially in the area of politics and hasbeen co-principal investigator of the American National Election Study, thenation's preeminent academic research project exploring voter decision-making. Anna Lethborg is a Director of Quantitative Research at the Social ResearchCentre with over 20 years' experience as a social research consultant. In 2015-16, Anna was part of the team responsible for the development of Australia’sfirst and only probability-based panel, Life in Australia™. She managed thepanel during its establishment and now leads Life in Australia™ businessdevelopment, project management, client and member communications forthe Social Research Centre.Michael Link, Ph.D., is the founder and lead researcher at Michael LinkResearch Consulting. A Past President of the American Association for PublicOpinion Research (AAPOR), he specializes in measurement science,generative AI, multimode & panel data collection, and emerging researchtechnologies. His pioneering work in address-based sampling earned him theAAPOR Mitofsky Innovator’s Award in 2011.
Ailin Liu started as a PhD student at the SODA Lab in June 2024. Ailin holds aBachelor’s degree in Intelligent Mobile System from Jacobs University Bremenand a Master's degree in Data Science from RWTH Aachen University. In herMaster's thesis, she worked on remote physiological signal sensing using deeplearning and computer vision techniques in the SIPLAB at ETH Zürich.Previously, Ailin worked as a student research assistant in the Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence Lab at Augsburg University and in theDatabases and Information Systems Lab at RWTH Aachen University. Duringher Master’s, Ailin spent 4 months in the Socially Perceptive Computing Lab atTU Delft, working as a research intern.Sebastian Lundmark, Ph.D., is a researcher at the SOM Institute at theUniversity of Gothenburg. His research deals with survey methodology,focusing on increasing response propensities of hard-to-reach populations.He acts as the head of methodology development of the Swedish nationalinfrastructure Comparative Research Center Sweden (cors.se) which includesthe major social survey programs in Sweden (the Swedish National ElectionStudies, European Social Survey, International Social Survey Programme,Swedish Citizen Panel, Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement, andEuropean Values Studies). Ellyn Maese is a senior research consultant at Gallup (2017-present)specializing in the design and implementation of custom research. She servesas the Gallup Panel Research Lead, overseeing and advising on all of GallupU.S. panel research activities involving client research, internal research, andR&D initiatives. She also serves as lead researcher and methodologist forsome of Gallup’s most methodologically complex projects, including workconducted by the Gallup Center on Black Voices (2020-present) and Gallup’sDARPA programs (2018-present). Dr. Maese is also a member of Gallup’sInternal Review Board for publicly released research.Cameron McPhee is the Chief Methodologist at SSRS where she providesmethodological and statistical support throughout the organization. Withmore than 20 years of experience in public opinion research, survey design,data collection, data management, and quantitative and qualitative analysis,Cameron designs and implements innovative, rigorous, and efficient methodsfor sampling, measuring, and weighting diverse populations. She directs theSSRS advanced analytics and methodology team to deliver high-quality,statistically sound solutions developed using experimentally validatedmethods. Her particular areas of interest include election polling, address-based sampling (ABS), mixed-mode data collection, response maximization,nonresponse error and bias analysis, and experimental study design.Cameron is also the past AAPOR Standard’s Chair, the Past-President of DC-AAPOR, the Chair of the AAPOR Task Force on Online Samples, and a memberof the CNN election night Decision Desk.
Andrew Mercer is a principal methodologist at Pew Research Center. He is anexpert on probability-based online panels, nonprobability survey methods,survey nonresponse and statistical analysis. His research focuses on methodsof identifying and correcting bias in survey samples. He leads the Center’sresearch on nonprobability samples and co-authored several reports andpublications on the subject. He also served on the American Association forPublic Opinion Research’s task force on Data Quality Metrics for OnlineSamples. He has authored blog posts and analyses making methodologicalconcepts such as margin of error and oversampling accessible to a generalaudience. Prior to joining the Center, Mercer was a senior surveymethodologist at Westat. He received a bachelor’s degree in political sciencefrom Carleton College and master’s and doctoral degrees in surveymethodology from the University of Maryland. His research has beenpublished in Public Opinion Quarterly and the Journal of Survey Statistics andMethodology.Vera Messing is a Research Professor at the HUN-REN Centre for SocialSciences in Budapest and a Research Fellow at the CEU Democracy Institute.Presently, she is a Fulbright Fellow at the J. Korbel School of InternationalStudies at DU, Colorado. With over 20 years of experience in empiricalresearch, Dr. Messing specializes in ethnicity, migration, minorities, andsurvey methodology. Her research interests focus on social sciencemethodology, particularly the validity and reliability of qualitative andquantitative research data. Since 2012, she has served as the PrincipalInvestigator for the European Social Survey (ERIC) in Hungary and is involvedin projects establishing and managing the Cross-National Online Panel(Cronos 2-4), an ESS based probability-based survey panel. Dr. Messing’swork explores the comparative analysis of social inequalities, ethnicity, andtheir implications across various policy domains. She has published over 50articles and book chapters in renowned international journals, includingIdentities, Ethnicities, Ethnic and Racial Studies, Intersections, InterculturalEducation, Housing Studies, and Social Sciences.Jasmine Mitchell is a Survey Methodology PhD student with the University ofEssex (Institute for Social and Economic Research). She works with data fromUnderstanding Society: The UK Household Longitudinal Study, specifically theInnovation Panel. Her research is focused on innovations in data collectionmethods, primarily investigating the effect of additional tasks on surveypanels. Jasmine’s main research interests include the use of technology andmobile devices in surveys, additional survey tasks, non-response and attrition,and multi-modal sets of tasks. Prior to starting her PhD, Jasmine worked as aResearch Assistant for the European Social Survey.
Joris Mulder is a senior researcher at the non-profit research instituteCenterdata (Tilburg University, the Netherlands). He has a background incomputer science and social & economic psychology and he coordinates theDutch LISS panel: the online research infrastructure in the Netherlandsrepresentative of the Dutch population and specifically setup to facilitatescientific researchers worldwide. He primarily works on research projectssituated at the intersection of technological advancements and behavioraldata collection in online survey research. For example, real-time oTree basedmultiplayer behavioral games and experiments. Dina Neiger is the Chief Statistician at the Social Research Centre, withexecutive responsibility for the Life in Australia panel, the first and onlyprobability-based online panel in Australia. Dr. Neiger has led the design,analysis, and management of survey data across various health, population,and business topics. She is especially interested in adapting traditionalmethods and introducing innovative approaches to mitigate increasingdifficulties and costs of primary data collection.Gradon Nichols is a PhD student studying Statistics at the University ofWaterloo. His current research interests are in Survey Methods, NaturalLanguage Processing, and Deep Learning. Prior to starting his PhD he workedat the Bank of Canada, where he conducted surveys on the use of cash andother methods of payment.Andrew M. Parker is a senior behavioral scientist at RAND and a professor ofpolicy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research appliescore concepts in behavioral decision research to the understanding ofdecisions in complex, real-world situations. He has led or contributed toRAND projects on decision quality, risk perception, and individual differences,involving such content domains as health and financial behavior, aging,emergency preparedness and community resilience, climate change, andpsychological health. Past projects have addressed vaccination, low-incomeconsumption decisions, retirement planning, mental health, expectations formajor life events, and public responses to emerging crises. Much of hisresearch uses national surveys with novel designs, including embedded socialnetwork elicitations, qualitative freelisting with large samples and NLP coding,and hybrid probability/non-probability approaches.Andy Peytchev is a Fellow and senior survey methodologist at RTI. His PI-initiated research includes evaluation of commercially available data, splitquestionnaire design, responsive and adaptive survey designs, and combiningmultiple sources of data to improve survey inference. He has led the studydesign and is the PI on national household surveys.
Andreja Praček is a researcher and teaching assistant at the Centre for SocialInformatics at the University of Ljubljana. She is the project leader ofSlovenia's first probability-based web panel, the 1KA Panel, and has expertisein web panel design and data collection. Her main research interests includestudying bias in probability and non-probability web panels, web panelrecruitment strategies, and student evaluations of teaching surveys.Ben Phillips is Chief Survey Methodologist at the Social Research Centre anddirects operations for Life in Australia, Australia's only probability-basedonline panel. His work on the panel includes recruitment, retention, sampleselection, and other aspects of panel operations. Outside of probability-basedonline panels, his methodological passion is surveying rare ethnic andreligious populations. Dr Phillips has over 20 years of experience in surveyresearch. Prior to joining the Social Research Centre in 2018, he worked atBrandeis University, Abt SRBI, and Abt Associates. He holds an MA and PhD inNear Eastern and Judaic Studies and Sociology from Brandeis University.Emilio Rivera is an associate methodologist at Gallup. His work focuses onstrategies to increase response rates among hard-to-reach populations, witha particular interest in strategies that aid in increasing response rates amongGen Z respondents. He earned his M.S. and Ph.D. in experimental social andpersonality psychology from the University of Wyoming. Bence Ságvári is currently a visiting professor at Indiana UniversityBloomington. In addition to this position, he is a Senior Research Fellow at theCenter for Social Sciences in Budapest and heads the CSS-RecensComputational Social Science research department. As of 2021, Bence is alsoan associate professor at Corvinus University of Budapest, where he teachessocial network analysis, research methodology, and sociological theories. Hereceived his PhD in sociology from ELTE University in 2011. Since 2011, he is theHungarian coordinator for the European Social Survey (ESS), one of the largestcross-national comparative social surveys in the world. Besides his academiccareer, Bence is co-owner of a small IT company that develops variousbusiness software and smartphone applications. In 2014/15, he was VisitingFulbright Professor at Indiana University.Evan W. Sandlin is a Research Manager and political scientist at the Center forEconomic and Social Research at the University of Southern California. He isthe analyst for the LABarometer as well as a member of a number of workinggroups on the grant "A Next Generation Data Infrastructure to UnderstandDisparities across the Life Course."
Htay-Wah Saw is a PhD candidate in the Program in Survey and Data Scienceat the University of Michigan. He is also a Research Associate at the Universityof Southern California's Center for Economic and Social Research. His currentresearch focuses on designing and evaluating interventions aimed at reducingnonresponse and attrition in online longitudinal data collections, andleveraging wearable devices to collect population data in survey research.Shiyang Sima is a PhD student in Management Information Systems at PurdueUniversity. Her research focuses on leveraging transformer-based models toanalyze wearable sensor data and detect early signs of infectious diseases likeCOVID-19. By developing unsupervised anomaly detection techniques, sheaims to identify subtle physiological changes that enable timely interventions.Passionate about the intersection of neural networks and healthcare, Shiyanghas actively contributed to conferences and publications, advancing AI-drivensolutions to address public health challenges.Darby Steiger is the Vice President of Innovations & Solutions and the Directorof Qualitative Research at SSRS. Darby has had a long career conductingpublic opinion and policy research at Gallup and Westat on behalf of federalgovernment agencies, was previously the Director of Research for the GallupPanel, and now leads strategic innovations and solutions for the SSRS OpinionPanel in addition to leading their qualitative practice. She also recently servedon AAPOR Executive Council and was the conference chair in 2022, and is nowwrapping up her role as Sponsorship Chair of AAPOR.Margie Strickland has over 27 years in the market research industry and over16 years in cross-media measurement and managing passive metered panels.She currently heads up KnowledgePanel Digital, our passive metering offeringfor KnowledgePanel, overseeing all aspects including recruitment,management, engagement, and client strategy. Additionally, she isresponsible for ensuring quality, strategy, and measurement on other customsoftware and hardware metered panels. Prior to Ipsos, Margie has heldvarious senior level positions at Synthesio, Symphony Advanced Media, KantarTNS, and GfK. She holds a Master’s degree in Educational Statistics andMeasurement plus a BA in Psychology and a minor in Sociology, all fromRutgers University.
JoNell Strough, PhD, is a professor of psychology at West Virginia Universitywhere she coordinates the department’s doctoral program in life-spandevelopment. Her research focuses on age and gender differences inmotivation, emotion regulation, and cognition as they relate to decisionmaking and psychological well-being across life span. Her recent researchinvestigates these processes in the context of the ongoing climate crisis. Dr.Strough is a fellow of the Gerontological Society of America and the AmericanPsychological Association (Division 20—Adult Development and Aging).Elizabeth (Liz) Suhay is Associate Professor of Government in the School ofPublic Affairs at American University. She specializes in public opinion andpolitical psychology and is especially interested in Americans' beliefs aboutsocioeconomic inequality and scientific topics. She has published scholarlyarticles in numerous academic journals and has co-edited three editedvolumes: The Politics of Truth in Polarized America (2021, Oxford), The OxfordHandbook of Electoral Persuasion (2020), and "The Politics of Science" (2015,The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science).Suhay’s book manuscript—Debating the American Dream: How Explanationsfor Inequality Polarize Politics—will be published by Russell Sage FoundationPress in September. Her research has been sponsored by the NationalAcademy of Sciences, the National Science Foundation, the Russell SageFoundation, and Time-Sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences. Shecurrently serves as Co-Editor-in-Chief of the journal Political Psychology andEditor of the Cambridge University Press Elements in Political Psychologyseries. Randall K. Thomas is Chief Research Methodologist at AccuSurvey Consulting.He has conducted over one thousand research-on-research studies toempirically drive improvements in questionnaire design, data cleaning,recruitment, sampling, and weighting. His studies focus on all aspects of dataquality to minimize bias and increase the accuracy of response across bothprobability-based and non-probability samples. Randall is a leader in web-based and digital research methods translating research findings intopragmatic recommendations to ensure high quality research outcomes. Hehas completed more than thirty publications and four hundred conferencepresentations and workshops with more than thirty years of experiencemanaging and mentoring research teams.Michael Traugott studies the mass media and their impact on politics. Thisincludes research on the use of the media by candidates in their campaignsand its impact on voters, as well as the ways that campaigns are covered andthe impact of this coverage on candidates. He has a particular interest in theuse of surveys and polls and the way they are used to make news. His recentresearch interests focus on motivated reasoning and the ways in which newinformation is processed in relation to existing attitudes and beliefs.
Marcel Voia is Professor of Economics at the University of Orléans since 2018.Previously, Marcel Voia was a faculty member at Carleton University (2004 to2018), where he served as the Co-director of the Centre for Monetary andFinancial Economics (CMFE) from 2011 to 2019. Since 2019, he has held therole of Special Advisor with the Currency Department at the Bank of Canada.He is also an Associate Researcher with the University of Bucharest (since2021). Natasha Wasim is a doctoral student in Population and Public Health Sciencesat the University of Southern California, pursuing her fourth degree in publichealth. Natasha’s research focuses on advancing equitable food systems andimproving public health outcomes through innovative methodologies andcommunity-based collaboration. Her interests include food systems science,health outcomes research, network analysis, and the application of systemsscience tools such as group model building workshops. She is deeplycommitted to leveraging her interdisciplinary background to addressdisparities and develop impactful, sustainable solutions to food and nutritioninsecurity. Natasha also currently supports analysis and reporting at the LosAngeles Food Policy Council, driving efforts to promote food equity andsystems-level solutions through policy development, program evaluation, andstakeholder engagement. Previously, Natasha served as Program Manager forthe Los Angeles County Food Equity Roundtable, where she led thedevelopment of a Strategic Action Plan that was showcased at the 2022 WhiteHouse Conference on Hunger, Nutrition, and Health. Additionally, Natashacontributed to the implementation of SB 1383 in Riverside County, focusing onreducing food waste and increasing access to edible food by strengtheninglocal food recovery initiatives. She holds a Master of Public Health inEnvironmental Health Sciences from Yale University and a Bachelor of Scienceand Arts in Public Health Sciences and Policy from UC Irvine.Ting Yan is a Vice President at NORC at the University of Chicago and the ChiefScientist of AmeriSpeak. She is also an adjunct faculty member with Universityof Maryland and University of Michigan. Dr. Yan has over 25 years ofexperience conducting survey research and working on various aspects ofdesigning and implementing multimode surveys. Dr. Yan is currently servingon the 2030 U.S. Census Advisory Committee. She is a long-time member ofthe American Statistical Association (ASA) and the American Association forPublic Opinion Research (AAPOR). She was on the executive committee of theEuropean Survey Research Association, chaired AAPOR's DiversitySubcommittee, was the co editor-in-chief for Journal of Survey Statistics andMethodology, and served on the organizing committee for the 2024International Total Survey Error Workshop.
David Zimmerman is a Senior Financial Economist Fellow at the Securities andExchange Commission. His research focuses on financial decision making anddecisions under uncertainty. David is particularly interested in testing howvisualizations can improve decision making, how people reason aboutuncertainty, and the interaction between the two. He received a Ph.D. inManagement from UCLA’s Anderson School of Business with a concentrationin Behavioral Decision Making.ModeratorsMarco Angrisani USC Center for Economic and Social ResearchIpek Bilgen NORC at the University of ChicagoJeremy Burke USC Center for Economic and Social ResearchMarcel Das Centerdata & Tilburg University (The Netherlands)Kayla de la Haye USC Center for Economic and Social ResearchJan Karem Höhne DZHW, Leibniz University HannoverArie Kapteyn USC Center for Economic and Social Research)Andrew Mercer Pew ResearchGary Mottola FINRA FoundationAndrew Parker RAND CorporationBenjamin Phillips Social Research CentreAmie Rapaport USC Center for Economic and Social ResearchEvan Sandlin USC Center for Economic and Social Research
email | cesr@usc.edu web | cesr.usc.eduThis conference has been made possible through funding from a U01 National Instituteon Aging grant (U01AG077280) and the Social Security Administration.ScientificCommittee:Arie Kapteyn, Jill Darling, Marco Angrisani, and FranciscoPerez-Arce (USC Center for Economic and Social Research);and Jan Karem Höhne (DZHW, Leibniz University Hannover)Tania Gutsche, Tarra Kohli, Jessica Lozano, Blake Palomino,Lila Rabinovich, and Pamela Tyler (USC Center for Economicand Social Research).OrganizersConferenceOrganizers:
CIPHER 2025 Current Innovations in Probability-BasedHousehold Internet Panel Research