YourSpring 2024PERSONAL WEALTHWelcomeWe hope you are looking forward toenjoying the delights of Spring. Those of you with an eye on the sharemarkets will have noticed thecontinuing market volatility. As always,any market uncertainty highlights theimportance of focusing on your endgoals and having a diversifiedinvestment portfolio.This edition we take a look at 5psychological traps that could beharming your financial future and whatyou can do to help overcome them. Wealso highlight some of Australia’s greatcaravan parks. Whether planning aholiday or enjoying your retirement,it’s always good to explore the best ofwhat Australia has to offer. Workingwith us can help get you on the roadsooner! Happy reading!The investment markets have seen a positive but volatilefew months. Whilst April falls resulted in low returns forthat quarter, a subsequent July recovery saw record highsin Global and Australian share markets. Markets sharply fell again in the first 2 weeks of August.Factors impacting this include disappointing results in theArtificial Intelligence (AI) sector, a sluggish US jobs reportand unexpected policy changes by the Bank of Japan.Investors are more focused on fundamentals, and somemarket commentators believe we’re in a time “where badnews is no longer good news for share markets”.The share market is highly concentratedThe current market capitalisation concentrated in large USand Australian companies (large caps) is increasing sharemarket volatility. In the US, the so-called MAG 7 stockswere more than half of the gain in the S&P500 in the yearto 30 June 2024, and the Top 10 Mega Cap stocksrepresented 38% of the Index at 30 June 2024. Importantly,the US market represents 70% of the MSCI World Index. Positive returns continue withincreasing market volatilityPositive returns continuewith increasing marketvolatility5 psychological trapsharming your financialfuture and what you cando to overcome themAdventure awaits withAustralian caravan parksContents134CONTINUED ON PAGE 2Share Market returns from 1 January to 23 August 2024Source: FE Analytics
Investors must remember that the solid returns we haveenjoyed in the last few years were significantly boosted byunprecedented money being injected into the globaleconomy by Governments and Central Banks in response tothe COVID-19 pandemic. The result was also a huge increasein global debt (for example US government debt of overUSD35 trillion, representing 126% of GDP). Nevertheless,investors remain focused on the US economy, as developedmarkets outside the US, including Australia, are significantlyweaker than the US.The Australian economy is weak with retail sales andbusiness forward orders declining, but is benefiting fromgovernment spending and tax cuts along with immigration.This, however is delaying any move bythe RBA to cut rates until Q1 2025.The present situation is complex and requires caution.Potential headwinds include: while there is a strong likelihood of significant interestrate cuts in the US over the next 12 months, these havealready been priced into markets;the COVID stimulus has been spent;consumers are facing an unprecedented cost of livingcrisis at a time of record levels of household debt;there are still significant inflation risks; andgeopolitical risks are very high.ConclusionWe remain optimistic but cautious about the market outlook.Conditions support the mantra of diversification. While wethink returns from growth assets will remain positive overall,there is an increased probability of more short-term marketcorrections. In this event, the defensive components ofportfolios should provide good returns and the opportunityfor capital growth in the case of bonds.It is important not to overreact to short-term data whenmaking investment decisions. We’re here to help younavigate the financial markets in these volatile times.In Australia, the largest 6 stocks (4 majorbanks plus CSL and BHP) represent 38% ofthe market capitalisation of the ASX200 (top200 stocks on the Australian Stock Exchange).The 4 major banks alone represent 22% ofthe ASX200 but delivered over 50% of the2023/24 Financial Year returns. Due to thisconcentration, any increases or decreases inthese few stocks have a magnified impact onthe overall stock market and market volatility.All major share market returns are solid, bothon a calendar year-to-date (CYTD) and annualbasis. While Europe has struggled, globalshare prices gained on the expectation oflower interest rates in Europe and the USlater this year. US annual inflation came in at3%, the lowest since March 2021. This,together with signs of slower economicactivity in the US, led to encouraging signalsfrom the US Central Bank that interest rateswill be cut soon.that of our major trading partners.Global and Australian bonds had a strongquarter, both showing capital gains as yieldsfell due to lower global inflation. The ReserveBank of Australia (RBA) cash rate remains at4.35%. Outlook for economies and marketsMost economists, such as global credit ratingfirm Moody’s, have a positive outlook for theeconomy and markets and expect a ‘softlanding’ (when an economy comes out of astrong growth cycle without entering arecession). Nevertheless, most also agreethat recession concerns are rising. JPMorgan, for example, believes that theprobability of a US and global recessionstarting before the end of 2024 is 35%,increasing to 45% by the end of 2025. CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1PAGE 2 SPRING 2024Returns of major asset classes at 31 July 2024Emerging marketshave providedreasonable returns at4.4% for the 3 monthsto the end of July.Large differencesbetween CYTD returnsin China of -9.4% andIndia of 21.5%demonstrate thatactive management isrecommended for thisasset class.Despite the stronggains in the Australianmarket in July, signscontinue that theAustralian economy isweakening along with
PAGE 3SPRING 2024Market trends aren't the only factors affecting your investment portfolio—behavioural biases can significantlyimpact your returns. These psychological tendencies often lead to poor investment decisions.Behavioural biases are mental shortcuts or blind spots that can mislead us, even when our choices seemrational. Understanding the most common biases and their impact on our investment decision-making is crucialfor achieving a better financial future.5 psychological traps harming your financial futureand what you can do to overcome them.Investing can be challenging, especially when dealing with behavioural biases. This is where working with afinancial adviser can be incredibly valuable, helping you confidently navigate the complexities of investing andachieve your goals.As your adviser, we can provide expertise and objectivity, helping you navigate and overcome these biases. Wecan guide you through a disciplined investment process, regularly review your portfolio, and offer diverseperspectives to ensure better decision-making.
Disclaimer: The content in this newsletter is of a general nature only and are not to be taken as recommendations as they might be unsuited to your specificcircumstances. The contents herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person and should not be used asthe basis for making any financial or other decisions. Your Lifespan adviser or other professional advisers should be consulted prior to acting on this information. Thisdisclaimer is intended to exclude any liability for loss as a result of acting on the information or opinions expressed.Adventure awaits with Australian caravan parksNSWNRMA Merimbula Beach Holiday ResortThis coastal haven offers family-friendly facilitiesand pristine beaches.BIG4 Koala Shores Holiday Park, Port StephensRelax and explore with water sports, dolphin-watching cruises, and sandy adventures.NTKings Canyon Resort Engage with the local Aboriginal culture andmemorable hikes that unveil breathtaking viewsand geological wonders.Knotts Crossing Resort, KatherineSet among acres of tropical gardens, close byKatherine’s cascading waterfalls, soaring red cliffsand quirky baobab trees.QLDBIG4 Adventure Whitsunday Resort, Airlie BeachThe nearby Great Barrier Reef and WhitsundayIslands make it a haven for water enthusiasts.NRMA Palm Cove Holiday ParkRelax on the palm-fringed beach, visit the reef andsoak in the ambience of the rainforest.SASea Vu Caravan Park, Robe, SAStunning beach views within walking distance oflocal shops, restaurants, wineries, and attractions.Tanunda Caravan & Tourist Park, Barossa ValleyHire bikes and explore vine-clad hills, rusticbuildings, churches and wineries.TASDiscovery Parks Cradle MountainImmerse yourself in the tranquillity of nature andmarvel at the unique flora and fauna.Whether a family holiday or your retirement, working with us can help you get on the road sooner. If you'reseeking the call of the ocean, the whisper of the rainforest, or the echo of the outback, these caravan parks standas gateways to a world waiting to be discovered. Pack your bags, hitch up the caravan, and embark on a journeythat promises you memories to last a lifetime. St Helens Caravan ParkWhether it be fishing, swimming or walking that takesyour fancy, this park has it all.VICBIG4 Apollo Bay Pisces Holiday ParkIndulge in scenic coastal drives and marvel at thetowering rock formations.Best Friend Holiday Retreat, YarramBuilt to holiday with your 4-legged family. Fencedareas for dogs to exercise off-leash, a hydro-bath hut,luxury day-use kennels and a dog-friendly playground.WACable Beach Caravan Park, BroomeWitness sublime sunsets over the Indian Ocean andcamel rides along the pristine sands.Mandalay Holiday Resort & Tourist Park, BusseltonIndulge in swimming, fishing, and various water sportsby the famous pier.https://www.australiantraveller.com/australia/australias-best-caravan-parks/https://ssangyong.com.au/discover-ssangyong/top-10-must-visit-caravan-parks-in-australia/ AFSL 229892 ABN 23 065 921 735 lifespanfp.com.auLevel 24, 1 Market Street, Sydney, NSW, 2000Phone: 02 9252 2000 Email: advice@lifespanfp.com.auYour financial planner is an Authorised or Corporate Authorised Representative ofLifespan Financial Planning Pty Ltd