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W O R L D E C O N O M I C O U T L O O K R E C O v E R y D U R I N g a Pa N D E M I C 1 1 New Con rmed COVID 19 Deaths seven day moving average Figure 1 2 Drivers of Global Growth mic began resurging over the summer United States Russia Turkey and South Africa Euro area Rest of the world Other advanced economies India Emerging Asia excluding India Latin America and the Caribbean Quarter over quarter growth contributions percentage points Supply disruptions are weighing on private investment 10 8 Real private consumption Real investment Other World real GDP growth 2022 6 4 2 0 2 4 2021 6 8 20 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 21 Q1 21 Q2 2019 Q4 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 2020 20 20 20 21 21 21 2022 Sources Haver Analytics and IMF staff calculations Note The estimate of world real GDP at the quarterly frequency is based on a Our World in Data and IMF staff calculations sample of economies covering 79 4 percent of global economic activity in 2020 as of September 22 2021 Economy group and regional classi cations Other includes the sum of contributions from public consumption n the World Economic Outlook Other advanced economies in terms of and a residual component which mixes contributions from the sample s net exports to nal Organization for Standardization ISO country codes are AUS CAN economies and a statistical DNK GBR HKG ISL ISR JPN KOR MAC NOR NZL SGP SMR SWE not covered 2022 4 9 discrepancy 2021 5 9 2022 5 5 Figure 1 3 Global Activity Indicators 2022 and some only in 2023 However it seems month moving average percent change Threeannualized for industrial likely that vaccinations alone will not be able to production deviations from 50 for PMIs completely stamp out SARS CoV 2 transmission Higher frequency indicators point to softening momentum even though they remain effective against the most adverse health effects of the pandemic severe illness 25 115 2 3 and death As a result hospitalizations and deaths 112 20 to are expected to be brought low levels everywhere 109 15 by the end of 2022 through a combination of 106 10 improved access to vaccines and therapies combined 103 5 precautions with more highly targeted and effective 100 0 Some countries able to reduce adverse public may be 97 5 Industrial production health outcomes sooner than others depending on 94 10 Manufacturing PMI New orders country specific circumstances The projections are Services PMI New business 91 15 outbreaks tempered by the possibility of renewed Monthly world trade volumes 88 20 seasonally adjusted 2018 100 particularly before vaccines become widely available 85 25 right scale So long as the enormous differences in vaccine access 82 30 2018 19 20 Aug persist the inequalities in health and economic out21 comes will increase further divergences across driving two blocs of countries those that can look forward Sources CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Haver Analytics 2022 Markit Economics and IMF staff calculations to further normalization later this year almost all Note PMI above 50 indicates expansion while below 50 indicates contraction advanced economies and those that will struggle PMIs purchasing managers indexes with the adverse health and economic impacts from 2022 resurgent infections The pressure for booster shots in already high rates of countries with vaccination could further delay access in others still at early stages of 12 6 8 2 International Monetary Fund October 2021 2022 2 3 Covid 2022 6

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