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07.2015

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40 2015 6 34 20 4 32 33

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financeinst It s not Done High Yield 2015 RSM 4 6 9 10 14 Benefitting from demographics The search for true alternatives and income By Oliver Harris Managing Partner Montreux Capital Management 16 The Sustainable Attractiveness of Real Estate Debt By Oliver Harris Managing Partner Montreux Capital Management EVEN BETTER 2015 17 18 19 20 22 23 24 26 28 30 32 34 facebook com grouprint www bankautpratit co il 3

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Benefitting from demographics The search for true alternatives and income By Oliver Harris Managing Partner Montreux Capital Management The global financial crisis created a paradigm shift in the perception of risk The unprecedented collapse of most traditional asset classes prompted investors to look further afield for truly alternative forms of investment immune from the short term impact of market movements Additionally the subsequent low interest rate environment of today has also resulted in a major quest for income driving the prices of many yielding assets well above fair value As investors seek to address these issues the nets have been cast far and wide Therefore the care home sector a relatively unknown but growing space which remains the preserve of a small band of investors is now being increasingly recognised for its low correlation to other assets its low volatility characteristics as well as its high and sustainable level of income Benefitting from demographics The care home sector s emergence as an alternative form of investment is underpinned by attractive and undisputable demographic trends such as longevity and an ageing population The provision of residential care is not subject to market forces and the payers for such services are not directly affected by short term sentiment The macro demographics are irrefutable The number of people in the UK aged 85 and over was 1 6 million in 2013 and this is set to double over the next 20 years From 2012 to 2032 the populations of 65 to 84 year olds and the over 85s are set to increase by 39 and 106 respectively Based on government actuary projections the number of people living in residential care in the UK will increase to 1 25 million in 2056 compared to 419 000 in 2009 It is difficult to find a more invariable and global tailwind than the aging population At the very time when the requirement for residential care provision is being driven upward by demographic change the total capacity in residential care homes has actually declined over the last decade For example mental health capacity has shrunk by 24 8 over the period The supply demand imbal ance offers unrealised investment opportunities and significantly underpins the asset class helping it to exhibit low correlations to both traditional and alternative forms of investment High and sustainable income The sweet spot for investing in care is with the operating companies which are both the providers of care and owners of the real estate The leading operators are creating profit levels in the region of 25 28 for care provision with gross fees being linked to RPI In addition the requirements to provide the capital and have the appropriate specialist regulatory experience have created high barriers to entry in the sector This supports such high return levels Such a solid level of return helps to provide a high and inflation proofed income stream for investors which is currently producing a running yield in the region of 7 8 In the current low interest rate environment high and predictable income levels are a rare commodity It is especially favourable when compared to other alternative assets the majority of which produce no income at all Uncorrelated returns The valuation of care homes is driven by the net fees generated by each bed rather than property market dynamics thus insulating returns from a property market bond market or stock market correction However there remains a real estate value underpin to any portfolio which acts as embedded risk support Consequently the return stream from the care home sector looks very different to any equity bond or alternative asset and more closely resembles an inflation linked high yielding liability such as a pension or endowment Conclusion The ageing population and the increasing requirement for residential care provides a degree of predictability not afforded to other asset classes Care sector dynamics are unlike any other form of investment demonstrating that alternatives can not only provide uncorrelated returns but can also provide a high and sustainable level of income While it is not on every investor s radar this sector is being increasingly recognised as a credible portfolio diversifier and can provide a solution in the continued quest for truly alternative assets and income 16

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The Sustainable Attractiveness of Real Estate Debt By Oliver Harris Managing Partner Montreux Capital Management Fixed Income investors across the globe are facing challenges from historically low interest rates Investors are having to look further afield to find positive real returns Investing in Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities CMBS offers a great opportunity to earn a relatively high yield in a currently low yielding market The CMBS market is currently undervalued following the Financial Crisis and looks set to benefit from the ECB purchasing asset backed securities as part of its asset purchasing programme We think that CMBS particularly in Europe offer attractive yields and compare favourably with other asset classes when measured on their historic risk adjusted returns Rogge s Short Duration Global Real Estate Bond Fund invests predominantly in Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities CMBS These are bonds that are secured against a pool of commercial mortgages We utilise our partnership with Heitman LLC an established Real Estate management firm to gain accurate valuations of the underlying assets involved in these CMBS and therefore have confidence of capital preservation 17 Since the launch of the fund it has delivered superior returns to short dated Investment Grade Credit and High Yield markets and looking forward the running yield is higher The fund maintains an Investment Grade average rating of A whilst outperforming a lower rated High Yield benchmark The fund has lower interest rate risk than investing in Investment Grade bonds This is because the majority of bonds in the portfolio are floating rate With low correlation to traditional Fixed Income indices exposure to prime global real estate and inflation hedging characteristics short duration fixed and floating rate CMBS provide an attractive opportunity for the current environment In conclusion we believe that CMBS offer an overlooked opportunity for income combined with inflation and interest rate protection Furthermore these returns can be achieved without sacrificing significant liquidity or credit quality The information provided does not constitute legal or any other form of advice and must not be relied on as such

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