Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 William L Hamby Jr Ph D Troy University Judson C Edwards Ph D Troy University
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040 William L. Hamby, Jr., Ph.D., Troy University ...
2 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Introduction Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chapter 2 The Need for Constitutional Constraints on Government The purpose of this research is to forecast the water withdrawals for self supplied industrial water users in Alabama from 2010 2040 The foundational data for this forecast is water withdrawal rates for industrial users from 1993 2013 and the results of the University of Alabama Study forecasting employment and Gross Domestic Product GDP for 20102040 as provided by the Alabama Office of Water Resources OWR Division of the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs ADECA From the user reported data five estimation methods were utilized to forecast water withdrawals for industrial users for 2010 2040 The five methods were based on employment data from the University of Alabama Study employment data from EMSI GDP data from the University of Alabama Study GDP data from an international forecasting service and deflated GDP data from an international forecasting service Although there are limitations for all five methods the method that provides the most reasonable forecast is the one based on the deflated GDP data from an international forecasting service Improved data collection in the annual survey may provide an opportunity to improve the accuracy of the forecasting process Summary Review of State Water Forecast Methodologies Based on the review of water forecasting methodologies utilized by other states in the US the variation of approaches examined follows a pattern of similar foundational data collected Out of the numerous research articles and reports reviewed for methodologies which could be used as a model for the Alabama forecast research conducted in the states of Oklahoma and Idaho were selected as best fit based on their economic assumptions and similar foundational data as provided by the Alabama Office of Water Resources to the CWRE In addition to the identified similarities these best fit models are used also as a source for what additional data could be collected in the future through new survey instruments to improve the accuracy of forecasted industrial use in Alabama The State of Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan 2012 Update of the Water Forecast Demand Oklahoma Water Resource Board OWRB 2011 provided a comprehensive look at water demand forecasting for municipal agriculture and self supplied industrial users Based on this report industrial commercial use for both public supply nonresidential and self supplied industrial forecasts relied on several data points These data points included employment by group and county water use per employee by group employment projections for Oklahoma survey data specific to oil and gas and thermoelectric outputs and population projections The estimation of Oklahoma county level nonresidential water use was derived by multiplying county employment by water use per employee with the assumption of holding constant the water use per employee as employment changes in the future Both employment and water use per employee were available at the two digit North American Industrial Classification System NAICS level As a forecast foundation for self supplied users the OWRB used data from their annual surface and groundwater reports Two core pieces of information needed to forecast this sector was annual average water use and employment Due to lack of information on future growth for various self supplied industrial users they were forecasted into the future using the growth rates of the employment projections developed for the public supply nonresidential forecast as described earlier This Idaho Department of Water Resources 2002 published the report Domestic Commercial Municipal and Industrial DCMI Water Demand Assessment and Forecast in Ada and Canyon Counties Idaho This research forecasted the water needed in order 3 to supply users within the high growth areas of Ada and Canyon Counties with limited ground water availability The forecast for domestic commercial municipal and industrial DCMI demand came forth through a cooperative effort between the Community Planning Association of Ada and Canyon Counties COMPASS the United States Geological Survey USGS and the Idaho Department of Water Resources IDWR For municipal commercial and industrial users MCI establishments were grouped by Standard Industrial Code SIC the precursor to the current NAICS system For this study a water demand coefficient was calculated for all SIC groups at the two digit level of aggregation The resulting water demand coefficients were ratios of water use to the numbers of employees in a SIC group Hence the coefficients represented the amount of water demanded per employee within a SIC group to produce products or supply services This approach proves nearly identical to the methodology used by the Oklahoma study in 2011 The authors of the Idaho study note that data deficiencies may necessitate the need for caution about the commercial results Most important is the lack of data on groundwater and surface water use by commercial users This gap may lead to an underestimation of baseline and forecasted commercial water demand Idaho Department of Water Resources 2002 After review of these numerous methods the key limitation in the approach used by both Oklahoma and Idaho is the application of two digit NAICS codes for creating the water use coefficient Yet their application is understandable based on the fact that it is the most readily available employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS The BLS data typically does not dive into further industrial classification specificity at the county level 3 to 6 digit NAICS because of data confidentiality issues This problem was specifically identified in both studies A simple example of how this can distort the calculated water coefficient would be the percentage employment growth in manufacturing 2 digit NAICS codes 31 33 for the coming decade within Montgomery County Alabama The large manufacturing employment percentage growth does not occur in the manufacturing sectors represented in the self supplied industrial users within the county Under closer inspection the overwhelming percentage of the industrial growth took place in Auto Manufacturing Industry NAICS 336111 which is served by municipal water Thus using a two digit NAICS proxy can inflate or deflate the anticipated water use with no direct relationship to water consumption for self supplied users The studies also provided greater insight into the types of data needs for better projections Though this will be discussed at
2  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Introduction  Forecast of Water Withdrawal...
2 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Introduction Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chapter 2 The Need for Constitutional Constraints on Government The purpose of this research is to forecast the water withdrawals for self supplied industrial water users in Alabama from 2010 2040 The foundational data for this forecast is water withdrawal rates for industrial users from 1993 2013 and the results of the University of Alabama Study forecasting employment and Gross Domestic Product GDP for 20102040 as provided by the Alabama Office of Water Resources OWR Division of the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs ADECA From the user reported data five estimation methods were utilized to forecast water withdrawals for industrial users for 2010 2040 The five methods were based on employment data from the University of Alabama Study employment data from EMSI GDP data from the University of Alabama Study GDP data from an international forecasting service and deflated GDP data from an international forecasting service Although there are limitations for all five methods the method that provides the most reasonable forecast is the one based on the deflated GDP data from an international forecasting service Improved data collection in the annual survey may provide an opportunity to improve the accuracy of the forecasting process Summary Review of State Water Forecast Methodologies Based on the review of water forecasting methodologies utilized by other states in the US the variation of approaches examined follows a pattern of similar foundational data collected Out of the numerous research articles and reports reviewed for methodologies which could be used as a model for the Alabama forecast research conducted in the states of Oklahoma and Idaho were selected as best fit based on their economic assumptions and similar foundational data as provided by the Alabama Office of Water Resources to the CWRE In addition to the identified similarities these best fit models are used also as a source for what additional data could be collected in the future through new survey instruments to improve the accuracy of forecasted industrial use in Alabama The State of Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan 2012 Update of the Water Forecast Demand Oklahoma Water Resource Board OWRB 2011 provided a comprehensive look at water demand forecasting for municipal agriculture and self supplied industrial users Based on this report industrial commercial use for both public supply nonresidential and self supplied industrial forecasts relied on several data points These data points included employment by group and county water use per employee by group employment projections for Oklahoma survey data specific to oil and gas and thermoelectric outputs and population projections The estimation of Oklahoma county level nonresidential water use was derived by multiplying county employment by water use per employee with the assumption of holding constant the water use per employee as employment changes in the future Both employment and water use per employee were available at the two digit North American Industrial Classification System NAICS level As a forecast foundation for self supplied users the OWRB used data from their annual surface and groundwater reports Two core pieces of information needed to forecast this sector was annual average water use and employment Due to lack of information on future growth for various self supplied industrial users they were forecasted into the future using the growth rates of the employment projections developed for the public supply nonresidential forecast as described earlier This Idaho Department of Water Resources 2002 published the report Domestic Commercial Municipal and Industrial DCMI Water Demand Assessment and Forecast in Ada and Canyon Counties Idaho This research forecasted the water needed in order 3 to supply users within the high growth areas of Ada and Canyon Counties with limited ground water availability The forecast for domestic commercial municipal and industrial DCMI demand came forth through a cooperative effort between the Community Planning Association of Ada and Canyon Counties COMPASS the United States Geological Survey USGS and the Idaho Department of Water Resources IDWR For municipal commercial and industrial users MCI establishments were grouped by Standard Industrial Code SIC the precursor to the current NAICS system For this study a water demand coefficient was calculated for all SIC groups at the two digit level of aggregation The resulting water demand coefficients were ratios of water use to the numbers of employees in a SIC group Hence the coefficients represented the amount of water demanded per employee within a SIC group to produce products or supply services This approach proves nearly identical to the methodology used by the Oklahoma study in 2011 The authors of the Idaho study note that data deficiencies may necessitate the need for caution about the commercial results Most important is the lack of data on groundwater and surface water use by commercial users This gap may lead to an underestimation of baseline and forecasted commercial water demand Idaho Department of Water Resources 2002 After review of these numerous methods the key limitation in the approach used by both Oklahoma and Idaho is the application of two digit NAICS codes for creating the water use coefficient Yet their application is understandable based on the fact that it is the most readily available employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS The BLS data typically does not dive into further industrial classification specificity at the county level 3 to 6 digit NAICS because of data confidentiality issues This problem was specifically identified in both studies A simple example of how this can distort the calculated water coefficient would be the percentage employment growth in manufacturing 2 digit NAICS codes 31 33 for the coming decade within Montgomery County Alabama The large manufacturing employment percentage growth does not occur in the manufacturing sectors represented in the self supplied industrial users within the county Under closer inspection the overwhelming percentage of the industrial growth took place in Auto Manufacturing Industry NAICS 336111 which is served by municipal water Thus using a two digit NAICS proxy can inflate or deflate the anticipated water use with no direct relationship to water consumption for self supplied users The studies also provided greater insight into the types of data needs for better projections Though this will be discussed at
2  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Introduction  Forecast of Water Withdrawal...
4 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 the conclusion of the report the key data collection piece should be annual full time equivalent employment for all industrial and commercial enterprises served by both municipal and selfsupplied sources It will also be important to collect or verify six digit NAICS codes for all responding to the annual survey Water Withdrawal Estimation Methodology The Alabama Office of Water Resources Division provided water withdrawal data for industrial Certificates of Use COUs for 1993 2013 and the results of the University of Alabama Study forecasting employment and GDP through 2040 The process of estimating water withdrawals for 2010 2040 was accomplished by utilizing five different approaches and by estimating usage at the specific COU location for enterprises with a NAICS Code beginning with a 2 3 or 4 This resulted in the removal of some of the industrial COUs from the forecast because the COUs were associated with irrigation or agricultural use The water withdrawal associated with these COUs should be included in the agricultural and irrigation forecasts The original baseline for estimating water withdrawals for 2011 2040 was the actual withdrawal for 2010 for each specific COU location However some of the COU locations did not withdraw water in 2010 but did withdraw water in 2011 2012 and or 2013 Since these water withdrawals could have potential impact on the total water withdrawn during the forecast period these actual water withdrawals were included in the baseline data Since 2010 some COUs have been terminated Therefore no estimates for water withdrawal were calculated after the date of the COU termination In addition the Tennessee Valley Authority TVA has announced that two large thermo electric facilities Widows Creek Steam Plant and Colbert Steam Plant will be permanently closed in 2015 and 2016 respectively Therefore no future water withdrawals were forecast for these two facilities after their respective closing dates Since thermo electric users account for most of the water withdrawals these estimates of water withdrawals after 2016 do not include potential significant water withdrawals Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 University of Alabama Employment Data Methodology The literature review indicated that Oklahoma and Utah utilize employment data as the method for estimating water withdrawals for industrial users For purposes of this forecast the initial estimates were based on the employment data provided by the University of Alabama Study The following formula was used to calculate the annual water withdrawal for each industrial COU WWj t WWj t 1 UAEMPi k t UAEMPi k t 1 WW represents the water withdrawal for industrial COU j for time period t where t ranges from 2011 to 2040 UAEMP is the employment data from the University of Alabama Study for industry i in county k for time periods t and t 1 The University of Alabama Study employment data was provided for the state and county level for thirteen industry groups If sufficient county level data for the industry group were available then county level data were used to calculate the year to year change in employment However if insufficient county level data were available then the state level data were used to calculate the yearto year change in employment The primary assumptions of this methodology are that there is a cause and effect relationship between employment data and water withdrawal aggregated employment data for industry groups are representative of all entities in the industry group and that state level employment data are representative of employment data for counties where county level data are not available The University of Alabama Study employment data consisted of aggregated data for thirteen industry groups Natural Resources Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services and Government The enterprises within these groups represent multiple NAICS Codes There is evidence that the industry growth rates are significantly different among the various NAICS Codes within an industry group Therefore a major concern regarding the accuracy of the water withdrawal estimates based on the employment data from the University of Alabama Study was the aggregation of data across several NAICS Codes which might have vastly different employment projections Some industries within the University of Alabama industry group may experience a decline in employment while other industries within the industry group may experience a significant increase in employment Further there were several counties that did not provide sufficient employment data This required the use of State of Alabama data to calculate the estimated water withdrawal for specific industrial COUs There is the possibility that the state level data may not be representative of the county level data for an industry group This use of aggregated data further compromises the estimates based on the employment data from the University of Alabama Study Therefore the following method was deployed with the expectation that a more accurate forecast could be prepared EMSI Employment Data Methodology To address these two concerns about the aggregation of data across NAICS Codes and counties employment data from EMSI was utilized to provide for a second set of estimates EMSI provides county level state level and national level data by three digit NAICS Codes The usage of this data has the potential to improve the accuracy of the water withdrawal forecasts since the year to year changes in employment can be significantly different for NAICS Codes The following formula was used to calculate the annual water withdrawal for each industrial COU WWj t WWj t 1 EMSIEMPi k t EMSIEMPi k t 1 WW represents the water withdrawal for industrial COU j for time period t where t ranges from 2011 to 2040 EMSIEMP is the employment data from the EMSI for three digit NAICS Code i county k for time periods t and t 1 However EMSI only provides estimated employment data through 2025 If sufficient county level data were not available then state level data were used and if sufficient state level data were not available then national level data were used The EMSI data provides estimates of employment through 2025 Since the forecast period for water withdrawals is through 2040 the tenyear 2016 2025 average employment change was used as an estimate of the year to year change in employment for 2026 5 2040 The primary assumptions of this methodology are that there is a cause and effect relationship between employment data and water withdrawal the ten year average employment change is representative of the employment change expected for the 2026 2040 that state level employment data are representative of employment data for counties where county level data are not available and national level data are representative of county level data where state level data are not available The utilization of EMSI employment data reduced the number of estimates based on state level data The forecasts of the EMSI Employment method were similar to the forecasts using the University of Alabama Employment Study data University of Alabama GDP Data Methodology The following Bureau of Labor Statistic bar chart of productivity change from 1947 2014 provides one of the primary deficiencies of using employment data to estimate water withdrawal for a 31 year period The annual average productivity gain for the 46 year period since 1979 has been between 1 3 and 2 6 percent with an annual average of approximately 2 percent If similar productivity gains are experienced during the 31 year period for this study then by 2040 the labor force necessary to generate current output could be realized with approximately one half of the current labor force This would produce estimated water withdrawal that would be approximately one half of current withdrawals yet output would not have declined by a similar rate This is plausible if there is a nominal relationship between water withdrawal and output However for many industrial COUs water is an integral component of the industrial process and frequently is an integral component of the output If either of these conditions is representative of water withdrawal for the industrial user then the usage of the employment data from the University of Alabama
4  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  the conclusion of the report, the key data...
4 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 the conclusion of the report the key data collection piece should be annual full time equivalent employment for all industrial and commercial enterprises served by both municipal and selfsupplied sources It will also be important to collect or verify six digit NAICS codes for all responding to the annual survey Water Withdrawal Estimation Methodology The Alabama Office of Water Resources Division provided water withdrawal data for industrial Certificates of Use COUs for 1993 2013 and the results of the University of Alabama Study forecasting employment and GDP through 2040 The process of estimating water withdrawals for 2010 2040 was accomplished by utilizing five different approaches and by estimating usage at the specific COU location for enterprises with a NAICS Code beginning with a 2 3 or 4 This resulted in the removal of some of the industrial COUs from the forecast because the COUs were associated with irrigation or agricultural use The water withdrawal associated with these COUs should be included in the agricultural and irrigation forecasts The original baseline for estimating water withdrawals for 2011 2040 was the actual withdrawal for 2010 for each specific COU location However some of the COU locations did not withdraw water in 2010 but did withdraw water in 2011 2012 and or 2013 Since these water withdrawals could have potential impact on the total water withdrawn during the forecast period these actual water withdrawals were included in the baseline data Since 2010 some COUs have been terminated Therefore no estimates for water withdrawal were calculated after the date of the COU termination In addition the Tennessee Valley Authority TVA has announced that two large thermo electric facilities Widows Creek Steam Plant and Colbert Steam Plant will be permanently closed in 2015 and 2016 respectively Therefore no future water withdrawals were forecast for these two facilities after their respective closing dates Since thermo electric users account for most of the water withdrawals these estimates of water withdrawals after 2016 do not include potential significant water withdrawals Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 University of Alabama Employment Data Methodology The literature review indicated that Oklahoma and Utah utilize employment data as the method for estimating water withdrawals for industrial users For purposes of this forecast the initial estimates were based on the employment data provided by the University of Alabama Study The following formula was used to calculate the annual water withdrawal for each industrial COU WWj t WWj t 1 UAEMPi k t UAEMPi k t 1 WW represents the water withdrawal for industrial COU j for time period t where t ranges from 2011 to 2040 UAEMP is the employment data from the University of Alabama Study for industry i in county k for time periods t and t 1 The University of Alabama Study employment data was provided for the state and county level for thirteen industry groups If sufficient county level data for the industry group were available then county level data were used to calculate the year to year change in employment However if insufficient county level data were available then the state level data were used to calculate the yearto year change in employment The primary assumptions of this methodology are that there is a cause and effect relationship between employment data and water withdrawal aggregated employment data for industry groups are representative of all entities in the industry group and that state level employment data are representative of employment data for counties where county level data are not available The University of Alabama Study employment data consisted of aggregated data for thirteen industry groups Natural Resources Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services and Government The enterprises within these groups represent multiple NAICS Codes There is evidence that the industry growth rates are significantly different among the various NAICS Codes within an industry group Therefore a major concern regarding the accuracy of the water withdrawal estimates based on the employment data from the University of Alabama Study was the aggregation of data across several NAICS Codes which might have vastly different employment projections Some industries within the University of Alabama industry group may experience a decline in employment while other industries within the industry group may experience a significant increase in employment Further there were several counties that did not provide sufficient employment data This required the use of State of Alabama data to calculate the estimated water withdrawal for specific industrial COUs There is the possibility that the state level data may not be representative of the county level data for an industry group This use of aggregated data further compromises the estimates based on the employment data from the University of Alabama Study Therefore the following method was deployed with the expectation that a more accurate forecast could be prepared EMSI Employment Data Methodology To address these two concerns about the aggregation of data across NAICS Codes and counties employment data from EMSI was utilized to provide for a second set of estimates EMSI provides county level state level and national level data by three digit NAICS Codes The usage of this data has the potential to improve the accuracy of the water withdrawal forecasts since the year to year changes in employment can be significantly different for NAICS Codes The following formula was used to calculate the annual water withdrawal for each industrial COU WWj t WWj t 1 EMSIEMPi k t EMSIEMPi k t 1 WW represents the water withdrawal for industrial COU j for time period t where t ranges from 2011 to 2040 EMSIEMP is the employment data from the EMSI for three digit NAICS Code i county k for time periods t and t 1 However EMSI only provides estimated employment data through 2025 If sufficient county level data were not available then state level data were used and if sufficient state level data were not available then national level data were used The EMSI data provides estimates of employment through 2025 Since the forecast period for water withdrawals is through 2040 the tenyear 2016 2025 average employment change was used as an estimate of the year to year change in employment for 2026 5 2040 The primary assumptions of this methodology are that there is a cause and effect relationship between employment data and water withdrawal the ten year average employment change is representative of the employment change expected for the 2026 2040 that state level employment data are representative of employment data for counties where county level data are not available and national level data are representative of county level data where state level data are not available The utilization of EMSI employment data reduced the number of estimates based on state level data The forecasts of the EMSI Employment method were similar to the forecasts using the University of Alabama Employment Study data University of Alabama GDP Data Methodology The following Bureau of Labor Statistic bar chart of productivity change from 1947 2014 provides one of the primary deficiencies of using employment data to estimate water withdrawal for a 31 year period The annual average productivity gain for the 46 year period since 1979 has been between 1 3 and 2 6 percent with an annual average of approximately 2 percent If similar productivity gains are experienced during the 31 year period for this study then by 2040 the labor force necessary to generate current output could be realized with approximately one half of the current labor force This would produce estimated water withdrawal that would be approximately one half of current withdrawals yet output would not have declined by a similar rate This is plausible if there is a nominal relationship between water withdrawal and output However for many industrial COUs water is an integral component of the industrial process and frequently is an integral component of the output If either of these conditions is representative of water withdrawal for the industrial user then the usage of the employment data from the University of Alabama
4  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  the conclusion of the report, the key data...
6 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 7 Productivity change in the nonfarm business sector 1947 2014 a decline in GDP while other industries within the industry group may experience a significant increase in GDP This use of aggregated data compromises the estimates based on the GDP data from the University of Alabama Study Therefore the following method was deployed with the expectation that a more accurate forecast could be prepared Average annual percent change 5 4 3 2 8 International Forecasting Service GDP Data Methodology 2 6 2 2 2 1 2 1 5 1 3 1 0 1947 73 1973 79 1979 90 1990 2000 2000 2007 2007 2014 Source U S Bureau of Labor Statistics To address this concern that employment data might not be a good metric for estimating water withdrawal GDP data from the University of Alabama Study were used to estimate water withdrawal The following formula was used to calculate the annual water withdrawal for each industrial COU aggregated GDP data for industry groups are representative of all entities in the industry group and that state level GDP data are representative of GDP data for counties where county level data are not available The University of Alabama Study GDP data consisted of aggregated data for thirteen industry groups Natural Resources Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade WW represents the water withdrawal for industrial COU j Transportation Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial for time period t where t ranges from 2011 to 2040 UAGDP is Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and the GDP data from the University of Alabama Study for industry Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services and i in county k for time periods t and t 1 The University of Government The enterprises within these groups represent Alabama Study GDP data was provided for the state and county multiple NAICS Codes There is evidence that the industry level for thirteen industry groups If sufficient county level data growth rates are significantly different among the various NAICS for the industry group were available then county level data were Codes within an industry group Therefore a major concern used to calculate the year to year change in GDP However if regarding the accuracy of the water withdrawal estimates based insufficient county level data were available then the state level on the GDP data from the University of Alabama Study was data were used to calculate the year to year change in GDP The the aggregation of data across several NAICS Codes which primary assumptions of this methodology are that there is a cause might have vastly different GDP projections Some industries and effect relationship between GDP data and water withdrawal within the University of Alabama industry group may experience WWj t WWj k t 1 UAGDPi k t UAGDPi k t 1 To address the differences between the forecasts based on the aggregation of GDP data across several NAICS codes in the University of Alabama Study the GDP forecasts of an international forecasting service were used to calculate additional water withdrawal forecasts The international forecasting service provides forecasts for most 5 digit NAICS Codes which has the potential to improve the accuracy of the water withdrawal forecasts since the year to year changes in GDP can be significantly different for NAICS Codes The following formula was used to calculate the annual water withdrawal for each industrial COU WWj t WWj t 1 IFSGDPi t IFSGDPi t 1 WW represents the water withdrawal for industrial COU j for time period t where t ranges from 2011 to 2040 IFSGDP is the GDP data from the International Forecasting Service for 5 digit NAICS Code i for time periods t and t 1 The international forecasting service provides data only at the national level and provides a forecast of GDP through 2019 or 2020 Since the forecast period for water withdrawals is through 2040 the ten year average change in GDP was used as an estimate of the year to year change in GDP for the remaining years of the forecast The primary assumptions of this methodology are that there is a cause and effect relationship between GDP data and water withdrawal national level data for GDP change is representative of the GDP change for industrial users in Alabama and that the ten year average GDP change through 2019 or 2020 is representative of the GDP change for the remaining years of the forecast The forecasts of the international forecasting service method using GDP data were higher but also similar to the forecasts using the University of Alabama GDP Study data International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Data Methodology The international forecasting service indicated that for the ten year period ending in 2019 or 2020 some industries would experience significant growth in GDP The likelihood that that same rate of growth could be sustained for approximately 30 years is highly unlikely Therefore the ten year average change in GDP was deflated by 50 percent to provide for a more realistic long term growth rate The following formula was used to calculate the annual water withdrawal for each industrial COU WWj t WWj t 1 IFSGDPi t IFSGDPi t 1 WW represents the water withdrawal for industrial COU j for time period t where t ranges from 2011 to 2040 IFSGDP is the GDP data from the International Forecasting Service for 5 digit NAICS Code i for time periods t and t 1 The international forecasting service provides data only at the national level and provides a forecast of GDP through 2019 or 2020 Since the forecast period for water withdrawals is through 2040 the ten year average change in GDP deflated by 50 percent was used as an estimate of the year to year change in GDP for the remaining years of the forecast The primary assumptions of this methodology are that there is a cause and effect relationship between GDP data and water withdrawal national level data for GDP change is representative of the GDP change for industrial users in Alabama and that the ten year average GDP change through 2019 or 2020 deflated by 50 percent is representative of the GDP change for the remaining years of the forecast The forecasts of the international forecasting service method using deflated GDP were lower than the other two GDP based methods and produced a result that was approximately equal to the average of the four other methods The International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP was selected as the method for estimating water withdrawal forecasts because it appears to be the most accurate of the five methodologies This method incorporates the anticipated growth in real GDP that is expected for several industries over the 31 year period of the forecast However it does not produce results that are possibly too optimistic as does the University of Alabama Study using GDP data and the International Forecasting Service using GDP data Further it does not ignore labor productivity gains which are not included in the results from the two methods based on employment data the University of Alabama Study using employment data and EMSI Labor productivity gains have averaged approximately 2 percent per year since the 1960 s Both employment based methodologies indicate
6  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Sup...
6 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 7 Productivity change in the nonfarm business sector 1947 2014 a decline in GDP while other industries within the industry group may experience a significant increase in GDP This use of aggregated data compromises the estimates based on the GDP data from the University of Alabama Study Therefore the following method was deployed with the expectation that a more accurate forecast could be prepared Average annual percent change 5 4 3 2 8 International Forecasting Service GDP Data Methodology 2 6 2 2 2 1 2 1 5 1 3 1 0 1947 73 1973 79 1979 90 1990 2000 2000 2007 2007 2014 Source U S Bureau of Labor Statistics To address this concern that employment data might not be a good metric for estimating water withdrawal GDP data from the University of Alabama Study were used to estimate water withdrawal The following formula was used to calculate the annual water withdrawal for each industrial COU aggregated GDP data for industry groups are representative of all entities in the industry group and that state level GDP data are representative of GDP data for counties where county level data are not available The University of Alabama Study GDP data consisted of aggregated data for thirteen industry groups Natural Resources Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade WW represents the water withdrawal for industrial COU j Transportation Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial for time period t where t ranges from 2011 to 2040 UAGDP is Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and the GDP data from the University of Alabama Study for industry Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services and i in county k for time periods t and t 1 The University of Government The enterprises within these groups represent Alabama Study GDP data was provided for the state and county multiple NAICS Codes There is evidence that the industry level for thirteen industry groups If sufficient county level data growth rates are significantly different among the various NAICS for the industry group were available then county level data were Codes within an industry group Therefore a major concern used to calculate the year to year change in GDP However if regarding the accuracy of the water withdrawal estimates based insufficient county level data were available then the state level on the GDP data from the University of Alabama Study was data were used to calculate the year to year change in GDP The the aggregation of data across several NAICS Codes which primary assumptions of this methodology are that there is a cause might have vastly different GDP projections Some industries and effect relationship between GDP data and water withdrawal within the University of Alabama industry group may experience WWj t WWj k t 1 UAGDPi k t UAGDPi k t 1 To address the differences between the forecasts based on the aggregation of GDP data across several NAICS codes in the University of Alabama Study the GDP forecasts of an international forecasting service were used to calculate additional water withdrawal forecasts The international forecasting service provides forecasts for most 5 digit NAICS Codes which has the potential to improve the accuracy of the water withdrawal forecasts since the year to year changes in GDP can be significantly different for NAICS Codes The following formula was used to calculate the annual water withdrawal for each industrial COU WWj t WWj t 1 IFSGDPi t IFSGDPi t 1 WW represents the water withdrawal for industrial COU j for time period t where t ranges from 2011 to 2040 IFSGDP is the GDP data from the International Forecasting Service for 5 digit NAICS Code i for time periods t and t 1 The international forecasting service provides data only at the national level and provides a forecast of GDP through 2019 or 2020 Since the forecast period for water withdrawals is through 2040 the ten year average change in GDP was used as an estimate of the year to year change in GDP for the remaining years of the forecast The primary assumptions of this methodology are that there is a cause and effect relationship between GDP data and water withdrawal national level data for GDP change is representative of the GDP change for industrial users in Alabama and that the ten year average GDP change through 2019 or 2020 is representative of the GDP change for the remaining years of the forecast The forecasts of the international forecasting service method using GDP data were higher but also similar to the forecasts using the University of Alabama GDP Study data International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Data Methodology The international forecasting service indicated that for the ten year period ending in 2019 or 2020 some industries would experience significant growth in GDP The likelihood that that same rate of growth could be sustained for approximately 30 years is highly unlikely Therefore the ten year average change in GDP was deflated by 50 percent to provide for a more realistic long term growth rate The following formula was used to calculate the annual water withdrawal for each industrial COU WWj t WWj t 1 IFSGDPi t IFSGDPi t 1 WW represents the water withdrawal for industrial COU j for time period t where t ranges from 2011 to 2040 IFSGDP is the GDP data from the International Forecasting Service for 5 digit NAICS Code i for time periods t and t 1 The international forecasting service provides data only at the national level and provides a forecast of GDP through 2019 or 2020 Since the forecast period for water withdrawals is through 2040 the ten year average change in GDP deflated by 50 percent was used as an estimate of the year to year change in GDP for the remaining years of the forecast The primary assumptions of this methodology are that there is a cause and effect relationship between GDP data and water withdrawal national level data for GDP change is representative of the GDP change for industrial users in Alabama and that the ten year average GDP change through 2019 or 2020 deflated by 50 percent is representative of the GDP change for the remaining years of the forecast The forecasts of the international forecasting service method using deflated GDP were lower than the other two GDP based methods and produced a result that was approximately equal to the average of the four other methods The International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP was selected as the method for estimating water withdrawal forecasts because it appears to be the most accurate of the five methodologies This method incorporates the anticipated growth in real GDP that is expected for several industries over the 31 year period of the forecast However it does not produce results that are possibly too optimistic as does the University of Alabama Study using GDP data and the International Forecasting Service using GDP data Further it does not ignore labor productivity gains which are not included in the results from the two methods based on employment data the University of Alabama Study using employment data and EMSI Labor productivity gains have averaged approximately 2 percent per year since the 1960 s Both employment based methodologies indicate
6  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Sup...
8 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table 1 Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD Table 2 Ground Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP YEAR Method 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 University of Alabama GDP 33 20 53 34 64 97 75 29 89 02 104 04 119 86 University of Alabama Employment 33 20 44 12 46 44 47 45 48 24 49 20 50 34 EMSI Employment 33 20 45 69 45 37 46 62 47 72 49 26 51 26 International Forecasting Service GDP 33 20 45 64 50 97 58 29 67 57 79 39 94 56 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP 33 20 45 64 50 81 54 10 57 79 61 92 66 56 YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mining 0 24 0 25 0 28 0 30 Thermo electric 0 20 0 31 0 34 0 34 Pulp and Paper 11 78 11 76 12 16 12 27 Petrochemical 10 96 18 00 21 03 23 35 Other Manufacturing 10 01 15 29 16 98 17 81 Wholesale 0 02 0 02 0 03 0 03 Total 33 20 45 64 50 81 54 10 that the labor force will decrease which will lead to a reduction in water withdrawals at the same time that GDP is increasing This does not seem to be a reasonable representation of water withdrawals Analysis of Forecasts The analysis of the five forecasts will evaluate the withdrawal of water at the state county and HUC level Although there are forecasts for every well for the 31 year period the state level analysis will focus on the annual withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 The state level analysis will address the withdrawal of ground water surface water and the total water withdrawn This analysis will also address the type of industrial user based on the three digit NAICS Code Six industry groups were identified for this analysis mining thermo electric pulp and paper petrochemical other manufacturing and wholesale The county level analysis will address total water withdrawn for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 The HUC level analysis will address total water withdrawn for those same years The main report will address the results based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP The analysis of the other four forecasting methods is contained in the Appendices 2030 0 32 0 34 12 38 25 98 18 73 0 04 57 79 2035 0 34 0 34 12 49 28 96 19 74 0 04 61 92 9 2040 0 36 0 34 12 61 32 35 20 85 0 04 66 56 State Level Analysis Ground Water Withdrawals The five forecasts of ground water withdrawal produce significantly different results for water withdrawn during the 31 year period and a significant difference in the primary industries withdrawing the water Table 1 provides an overview of the forecasts for the five methods The forecast based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data produces the largest amount of ground water withdrawal with an estimated 119 86 million gallons per day for 2040 This forecast estimates that ground water withdrawals will increase by 261 percent during the 31 year period The forecast based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data produces the least amount of ground water withdrawal with an estimated 50 34 million gallons per day in 2040 This forecast estimates that ground water withdrawals will increase by only 51 percent during the 31 year period The forecast based on the EMSI employment data produces similar results to the University of Alabama Study based on employment data The only major difference between these two employment based forecasts is that the forecast based on the University of Alabama Study has ground water withdrawal growing at a small rate for the entire 31 year period Whereas the forecast based on the EMSI employment data projects that ground water withdrawals for 2015 2018 will be less than the prior year withdrawals Beginning in 2019 ground water withdrawals begin to increase but the ground water withdrawals do not match the 2014 ground water withdrawals until 2025 The forecast based on the International Forecasting Service estimates for GDP produces a result that is comparable to the University of Alabama Study based on GDP The estimated ground water withdrawal in 2040 is 94 56 which represents a 185 percent increase during the 31 year period The forecast based on the International Forecasting Service estimates for GDP deflated by 50 percent produces a result more similar to the employmentbased forecasts The estimated ground water withdrawal in 2040 is 66 56 which is a 100 percent increase during the 31 year period Table 2 provides a breakdown of ground water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data The forecasts indicate that Mining Thermo electric Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in ground water withdrawal with increases of 53 percent 73 percent 195 percent and 108 percent respectively Pulp and Paper and Wholesale will experience modest increases of 7 percent and 40 percent increase respectively Total ground water withdrawals are forecast to increase by 100 percent
8  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Sup...
8 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table 1 Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD Table 2 Ground Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP YEAR Method 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 University of Alabama GDP 33 20 53 34 64 97 75 29 89 02 104 04 119 86 University of Alabama Employment 33 20 44 12 46 44 47 45 48 24 49 20 50 34 EMSI Employment 33 20 45 69 45 37 46 62 47 72 49 26 51 26 International Forecasting Service GDP 33 20 45 64 50 97 58 29 67 57 79 39 94 56 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP 33 20 45 64 50 81 54 10 57 79 61 92 66 56 YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mining 0 24 0 25 0 28 0 30 Thermo electric 0 20 0 31 0 34 0 34 Pulp and Paper 11 78 11 76 12 16 12 27 Petrochemical 10 96 18 00 21 03 23 35 Other Manufacturing 10 01 15 29 16 98 17 81 Wholesale 0 02 0 02 0 03 0 03 Total 33 20 45 64 50 81 54 10 that the labor force will decrease which will lead to a reduction in water withdrawals at the same time that GDP is increasing This does not seem to be a reasonable representation of water withdrawals Analysis of Forecasts The analysis of the five forecasts will evaluate the withdrawal of water at the state county and HUC level Although there are forecasts for every well for the 31 year period the state level analysis will focus on the annual withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 The state level analysis will address the withdrawal of ground water surface water and the total water withdrawn This analysis will also address the type of industrial user based on the three digit NAICS Code Six industry groups were identified for this analysis mining thermo electric pulp and paper petrochemical other manufacturing and wholesale The county level analysis will address total water withdrawn for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 The HUC level analysis will address total water withdrawn for those same years The main report will address the results based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP The analysis of the other four forecasting methods is contained in the Appendices 2030 0 32 0 34 12 38 25 98 18 73 0 04 57 79 2035 0 34 0 34 12 49 28 96 19 74 0 04 61 92 9 2040 0 36 0 34 12 61 32 35 20 85 0 04 66 56 State Level Analysis Ground Water Withdrawals The five forecasts of ground water withdrawal produce significantly different results for water withdrawn during the 31 year period and a significant difference in the primary industries withdrawing the water Table 1 provides an overview of the forecasts for the five methods The forecast based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data produces the largest amount of ground water withdrawal with an estimated 119 86 million gallons per day for 2040 This forecast estimates that ground water withdrawals will increase by 261 percent during the 31 year period The forecast based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data produces the least amount of ground water withdrawal with an estimated 50 34 million gallons per day in 2040 This forecast estimates that ground water withdrawals will increase by only 51 percent during the 31 year period The forecast based on the EMSI employment data produces similar results to the University of Alabama Study based on employment data The only major difference between these two employment based forecasts is that the forecast based on the University of Alabama Study has ground water withdrawal growing at a small rate for the entire 31 year period Whereas the forecast based on the EMSI employment data projects that ground water withdrawals for 2015 2018 will be less than the prior year withdrawals Beginning in 2019 ground water withdrawals begin to increase but the ground water withdrawals do not match the 2014 ground water withdrawals until 2025 The forecast based on the International Forecasting Service estimates for GDP produces a result that is comparable to the University of Alabama Study based on GDP The estimated ground water withdrawal in 2040 is 94 56 which represents a 185 percent increase during the 31 year period The forecast based on the International Forecasting Service estimates for GDP deflated by 50 percent produces a result more similar to the employmentbased forecasts The estimated ground water withdrawal in 2040 is 66 56 which is a 100 percent increase during the 31 year period Table 2 provides a breakdown of ground water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data The forecasts indicate that Mining Thermo electric Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in ground water withdrawal with increases of 53 percent 73 percent 195 percent and 108 percent respectively Pulp and Paper and Wholesale will experience modest increases of 7 percent and 40 percent increase respectively Total ground water withdrawals are forecast to increase by 100 percent
8  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Sup...
10 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 The following charts Chart 1 1 Chart 1 4 provide the breakdown of ground water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Pulp and Paper industrial users declines while the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart 1 1 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Chart 1 3 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Mining Mining Thermo electric Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Wholesale Wholesale Chart 1 2 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Chart 1 4 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Mining Mining Thermo electric Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Wholesale Wholesale 11
10  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  The following charts, Chart 1.1     Chart...
10 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 The following charts Chart 1 1 Chart 1 4 provide the breakdown of ground water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Pulp and Paper industrial users declines while the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart 1 1 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Chart 1 3 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Mining Mining Thermo electric Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Wholesale Wholesale Chart 1 2 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Chart 1 4 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Mining Mining Thermo electric Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Wholesale Wholesale 11
10  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  The following charts, Chart 1.1     Chart...
12 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table 3 Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD Table 4 Surface Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP YEAR Method 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 University of Alabama GDP 8 788 97 9 833 41 7 725 60 8 163 93 8 633 19 9 115 66 9 599 86 University of Alabama Employment 8 788 97 9 512 77 7 425 10 7 517 21 7 612 40 7 536 90 7 400 09 EMSI Employment 8 788 97 8 662 95 6 089 28 6 086 49 6 084 19 6 116 35 6 182 44 International Forecasting Service GDP 8 788 97 8 744 16 7 396 31 7 982 86 8 746 51 9 780 06 11 240 07 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP 8 788 97 8 744 16 7 399 66 7 684 25 8 007 92 8 379 39 8 809 94 YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mining 3 30 3 04 3 86 4 04 Thermo electric 8 251 64 8 076 08 6 705 51 6 903 33 Pulp and Paper 369 99 357 41 346 16 344 81 Petrochemical 140 28 277 64 311 18 396 23 Other Manufacturing 23 77 29 94 32 91 35 79 Wholesale 0 03 0 03 0 04 Total 8 788 97 8 744 16 7 399 66 7 684 25 Surface Water Withdrawals The five forecasts of surface water withdrawal produce significantly different results for water withdrawn during the 31 year period and a significant difference in the primary industries withdrawing the water Table 3 provides an overview of the forecasts for the five methods The forecast based on the International Forecasting Service for GDP produces the largest amount of surface water withdrawal with an estimated 11 240 0724 million gallons per day for 2040 This forecast estimates that surface water withdrawals will increase by 28 percent during the 31 year period The forecast based on the EMSI employment data produces the least amount of surface water withdrawal with an estimated 6 182 44 million gallons per day in 2040 This forecast estimates that surface water withdrawals will decrease by 30 percent during the 31 year period The forecast based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data projects that surface water withdrawals will be 7 400 09 million gallons per day in 2040 which is a 16 percent decline during the 31 year period These results are similar results to the EMSI employment data method The major reason that these two methods forecast a decline in surface water withdrawal is the closing of two TVA thermo electric plants in 2015 and 2016 The forecast based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data projects that surface water withdrawals will be 9 599 86 million gallons per day in 2040 which is an increase of 9 percent during the 31 year period The forecast based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP estimates projects that surface water withdrawals will be 8 809 94 million gallons per day in 2040 which is a 1 percent increase during the 31 year period The results of these two methods produce very similar results with the major difference being the rate at which surface water withdrawals increase after the closing of the two TVA thermo electric plants Table 4 provides a breakdown of surface water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data The forecasts indicate that Mining Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in surface water withdrawal with increases of 43 percent 498 percent and 95 percent respectively Thermoelectric and Pulp and Paper will experience decreases of 8 percent and 7 percent respectively Total surface water withdrawals are forecast to increase by less than 1 percent 2030 4 24 7 113 62 344 27 506 80 38 95 0 04 8 007 92 2035 4 46 7 337 06 344 53 650 86 42 43 0 04 8 379 39 2040 4 70 7 574 38 345 60 838 94 46 26 0 05 8 809 94 13
12  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
12 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table 3 Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD Table 4 Surface Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP YEAR Method 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 University of Alabama GDP 8 788 97 9 833 41 7 725 60 8 163 93 8 633 19 9 115 66 9 599 86 University of Alabama Employment 8 788 97 9 512 77 7 425 10 7 517 21 7 612 40 7 536 90 7 400 09 EMSI Employment 8 788 97 8 662 95 6 089 28 6 086 49 6 084 19 6 116 35 6 182 44 International Forecasting Service GDP 8 788 97 8 744 16 7 396 31 7 982 86 8 746 51 9 780 06 11 240 07 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP 8 788 97 8 744 16 7 399 66 7 684 25 8 007 92 8 379 39 8 809 94 YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mining 3 30 3 04 3 86 4 04 Thermo electric 8 251 64 8 076 08 6 705 51 6 903 33 Pulp and Paper 369 99 357 41 346 16 344 81 Petrochemical 140 28 277 64 311 18 396 23 Other Manufacturing 23 77 29 94 32 91 35 79 Wholesale 0 03 0 03 0 04 Total 8 788 97 8 744 16 7 399 66 7 684 25 Surface Water Withdrawals The five forecasts of surface water withdrawal produce significantly different results for water withdrawn during the 31 year period and a significant difference in the primary industries withdrawing the water Table 3 provides an overview of the forecasts for the five methods The forecast based on the International Forecasting Service for GDP produces the largest amount of surface water withdrawal with an estimated 11 240 0724 million gallons per day for 2040 This forecast estimates that surface water withdrawals will increase by 28 percent during the 31 year period The forecast based on the EMSI employment data produces the least amount of surface water withdrawal with an estimated 6 182 44 million gallons per day in 2040 This forecast estimates that surface water withdrawals will decrease by 30 percent during the 31 year period The forecast based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data projects that surface water withdrawals will be 7 400 09 million gallons per day in 2040 which is a 16 percent decline during the 31 year period These results are similar results to the EMSI employment data method The major reason that these two methods forecast a decline in surface water withdrawal is the closing of two TVA thermo electric plants in 2015 and 2016 The forecast based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data projects that surface water withdrawals will be 9 599 86 million gallons per day in 2040 which is an increase of 9 percent during the 31 year period The forecast based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP estimates projects that surface water withdrawals will be 8 809 94 million gallons per day in 2040 which is a 1 percent increase during the 31 year period The results of these two methods produce very similar results with the major difference being the rate at which surface water withdrawals increase after the closing of the two TVA thermo electric plants Table 4 provides a breakdown of surface water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data The forecasts indicate that Mining Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in surface water withdrawal with increases of 43 percent 498 percent and 95 percent respectively Thermoelectric and Pulp and Paper will experience decreases of 8 percent and 7 percent respectively Total surface water withdrawals are forecast to increase by less than 1 percent 2030 4 24 7 113 62 344 27 506 80 38 95 0 04 8 007 92 2035 4 46 7 337 06 344 53 650 86 42 43 0 04 8 379 39 2040 4 70 7 574 38 345 60 838 94 46 26 0 05 8 809 94 13
12  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
14 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 The following charts Chart 2 1 Chart 2 4 provide the breakdown of surface water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Pulp and Paper industrial users increases This is consistent with closing of two TVA thermo electric plants and the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart 2 1 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Chart 2 3 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Mining Mining Thermo electric Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Wholesale Wholesale Chart 2 2 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Chart 2 4 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Mining Mining Thermo electric Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Wholesale Wholesale 15
14  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  The following charts, Chart 2.1     Chart...
14 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 The following charts Chart 2 1 Chart 2 4 provide the breakdown of surface water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Pulp and Paper industrial users increases This is consistent with closing of two TVA thermo electric plants and the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart 2 1 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Chart 2 3 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Mining Mining Thermo electric Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Wholesale Wholesale Chart 2 2 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Chart 2 4 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Mining Mining Thermo electric Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Wholesale Wholesale 15
14  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  The following charts, Chart 2.1     Chart...
16 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table 5 Total Water Withdrawals in MGD Table 6 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP YEAR Method 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 University of Alabama GDP 8 822 17 9 886 75 7 790 57 8 239 22 8 722 22 9 219 70 9 719 72 University of Alabama Employment 8 822 17 9 556 89 7 471 54 7 564 66 7 660 64 7 586 10 7 450 42 EMSI Employment 8 822 17 8 708 65 6 134 64 6 133 11 6 131 91 6 165 61 6 233 70 International Forecasting Service GDP 8 822 17 8 789 79 7 447 28 8 041 16 8 814 08 9 859 45 11 334 63 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP 8 822 17 8 789 79 7 450 47 7 738 35 8 065 71 8 441 31 8 876 50 YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mining 3 53 3 29 4 15 4 35 Thermo electric 8 251 84 8 076 40 6 705 85 6 903 68 Pulp and Paper 381 77 369 17 358 32 357 08 Petrochemical 151 24 295 64 332 20 419 58 Other Manufacturing 33 78 45 23 49 89 53 60 Wholesale 0 02 0 05 0 06 0 07 Total 8 822 17 8 789 79 7 450 47 7 738 35 Total Water Withdrawals The five forecasts of total water withdrawals produce significantly different results for total water withdrawn during the 31 year period and a significant difference in the primary industries withdrawing the water Table 5 provides an overview of the forecasts for the five methods The forecast based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data produces the largest amount of total water withdrawal with an estimated 11 334 63 million gallons per day for 2040 This forecast estimates that total water withdrawals will increase by 28 percent during the 31 year period The forecast based on the EMSI employment data produces the least amount of total water withdrawal with an estimated 6 233 70 million gallons per day in 2040 This forecast estimates that total water withdrawals will decrease by 29 percent during the 31 year period The forecast based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data produces similar results and projects that total water withdrawn will be 7 450 42 million gallons per day in 2040 which is a 16 percent decline during the 31 year period The forecast based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data projects that total water withdrawn will be 9 719 72 million gallons per day in 2040 which is a 10 percent increase during the 31 year period The forecast based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP estimates that total water withdrawn will be 8 876 50 million gallons per day in 2040 which is an increase of 1 percent during the 31 year period Table 6 provides a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data The forecasts indicate that Mining Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Wholesale will experience significant increases in total water withdrawal with increases of 43 percent 476 percent 99 percent and 308 percent respectively Thermo electric and Pulp and Paper will experience declines of 8 and 6 percent respectively 2030 4 56 7 113 96 356 64 532 78 57 68 0 07 8 065 71 2035 4 80 7 337 41 357 02 679 82 62 17 0 08 8 441 31 2040 5 07 7 574 73 358 21 871 29 67 11 0 09 8 876 50 17
16  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
16 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table 5 Total Water Withdrawals in MGD Table 6 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP YEAR Method 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 University of Alabama GDP 8 822 17 9 886 75 7 790 57 8 239 22 8 722 22 9 219 70 9 719 72 University of Alabama Employment 8 822 17 9 556 89 7 471 54 7 564 66 7 660 64 7 586 10 7 450 42 EMSI Employment 8 822 17 8 708 65 6 134 64 6 133 11 6 131 91 6 165 61 6 233 70 International Forecasting Service GDP 8 822 17 8 789 79 7 447 28 8 041 16 8 814 08 9 859 45 11 334 63 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP 8 822 17 8 789 79 7 450 47 7 738 35 8 065 71 8 441 31 8 876 50 YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mining 3 53 3 29 4 15 4 35 Thermo electric 8 251 84 8 076 40 6 705 85 6 903 68 Pulp and Paper 381 77 369 17 358 32 357 08 Petrochemical 151 24 295 64 332 20 419 58 Other Manufacturing 33 78 45 23 49 89 53 60 Wholesale 0 02 0 05 0 06 0 07 Total 8 822 17 8 789 79 7 450 47 7 738 35 Total Water Withdrawals The five forecasts of total water withdrawals produce significantly different results for total water withdrawn during the 31 year period and a significant difference in the primary industries withdrawing the water Table 5 provides an overview of the forecasts for the five methods The forecast based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data produces the largest amount of total water withdrawal with an estimated 11 334 63 million gallons per day for 2040 This forecast estimates that total water withdrawals will increase by 28 percent during the 31 year period The forecast based on the EMSI employment data produces the least amount of total water withdrawal with an estimated 6 233 70 million gallons per day in 2040 This forecast estimates that total water withdrawals will decrease by 29 percent during the 31 year period The forecast based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data produces similar results and projects that total water withdrawn will be 7 450 42 million gallons per day in 2040 which is a 16 percent decline during the 31 year period The forecast based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data projects that total water withdrawn will be 9 719 72 million gallons per day in 2040 which is a 10 percent increase during the 31 year period The forecast based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP estimates that total water withdrawn will be 8 876 50 million gallons per day in 2040 which is an increase of 1 percent during the 31 year period Table 6 provides a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data The forecasts indicate that Mining Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Wholesale will experience significant increases in total water withdrawal with increases of 43 percent 476 percent 99 percent and 308 percent respectively Thermo electric and Pulp and Paper will experience declines of 8 and 6 percent respectively 2030 4 56 7 113 96 356 64 532 78 57 68 0 07 8 065 71 2035 4 80 7 337 41 357 02 679 82 62 17 0 08 8 441 31 2040 5 07 7 574 73 358 21 871 29 67 11 0 09 8 876 50 17
16  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
18 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 The following charts Chart 3 1 Chart 3 4 provide the breakdown of total water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that the during the 31 year period the proportion of total water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of total water withdrawn by Petrochemical Pulp and Paper and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the closing of two TVA thermoelectric plants and the longterm projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart 3 1 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Chart 3 3 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Mining Mining Thermo electric Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Wholesale Wholesale Chart 3 2 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart 3 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 19
18  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  The following charts, Chart 3.1     Chart...
18 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 The following charts Chart 3 1 Chart 3 4 provide the breakdown of total water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that the during the 31 year period the proportion of total water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of total water withdrawn by Petrochemical Pulp and Paper and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the closing of two TVA thermoelectric plants and the longterm projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart 3 1 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Chart 3 3 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Mining Mining Thermo electric Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Wholesale Wholesale Chart 3 2 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart 3 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 19
18  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  The following charts, Chart 3.1     Chart...
20 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 21 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table 8 Water Withdrawal in MGD by County International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 COUNTY Surface Ground AUTAUGA Table 7 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP YEAR Water Source 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Ground 33 20 45 64 50 81 54 10 57 79 61 92 66 56 Surface 8 788 97 8 744 16 7 399 66 7 684 25 8 007 92 8 379 39 8 809 94 Total 8 822 17 8 789 79 7 450 47 7 738 35 8 065 71 8 441 31 8 876 50 32 42 1 00 8 809 94 66 56 8 379 39 61 92 8 007 92 57 79 7 681 25 54 10 7 399 66 50 81 8 788 97 8 744 16 45 64 10 00 Ground 2015 2020 2025 Table 7 and Chart 4 provide a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the water source based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data The forecast indicates that approximately 99 percent of water withdrawn is surface water Ground water is projected to increase by 100 percent during the 31 year period whereas surface water is expected to increase by less than 1 percent Thermo electric is the largest user of surface water and the closing of the two TVA plants significantly impacts the surface water withdrawn 2030 2035 2040 County Level Analysis The county level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each county during the 31 year period Table 8 provides a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each county in the State of Alabama based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data The results indicate that two counties Colbert and Jackson experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each county However some counties experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g Etowah Greene Mobile Morgan Shelby Walker and Washington with increases of 56 percent 55 percent 55 percent 751 percent 55 percent 55 percent and 58 percent The counties with the largest water withdrawals are Limestone Walker Mobile Shelby and Morgan with each county having water withdrawals in excess of 690 million gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these five counties accounts for 83 percent of all water withdrawn 10 21 Total Surface Ground 44 11 34 31 10 31 Total Surface Ground 44 62 34 73 10 42 Total Surface Ground 45 15 35 16 10 52 Total Surface Ground 45 68 35 60 10 63 Total 46 23 1 58 1 32 1 32 1 46 1 46 1 43 1 43 1 40 1 40 1 37 1 37 1 34 1 34 BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK BUTLER 0 30 0 30 0 27 0 27 0 25 0 25 0 24 0 24 0 22 0 22 0 21 0 21 0 20 0 20 1 13 CALHOUN 0 97 0 97 0 98 0 98 1 04 1 04 1 06 1 06 1 09 1 09 1 11 1 11 1 13 CHAMBERS CHEROKEE 0 35 0 35 0 38 0 38 0 43 0 43 0 45 0 45 0 48 0 48 0 50 0 50 0 53 0 53 CHOCTAW 40 80 40 80 36 57 36 57 33 35 33 35 31 71 31 71 30 16 30 16 28 68 28 68 27 27 27 27 CLARKE 13 51 CHILTON 20 21 20 21 18 11 18 11 16 52 16 52 15 71 15 71 14 94 14 94 14 21 14 21 13 51 CLAY CLEBURNE 1 13 1 13 2 06 2 06 2 26 2 26 2 22 2 22 93 19 0 36 93 55 106 29 0 38 106 68 1 331 41 0 31 1 331 72 1 353 63 0 35 1 353 98 2 17 2 17 121 60 0 40 122 00 2 13 2 13 2 09 2 09 139 48 0 42 139 91 160 40 0 45 160 85 CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON 1 74 1 74 1 76 1 76 2 16 2 16 2 28 2 28 2 41 2 41 2 54 2 54 2 69 2 69 CRENSHAW CULLMAN 1 83 0 43 2 26 2 79 0 76 3 55 3 11 0 88 3 99 3 25 0 99 4 24 3 41 1 11 4 52 3 60 1 24 4 85 3 82 1 40 5 22 32 20 0 14 32 34 28 86 0 12 28 99 26 32 0 11 26 43 25 03 0 11 25 13 23 80 0 10 23 90 22 64 0 10 22 73 21 53 0 09 21 62 DEKALB ELMORE 35 08 40 92 1 66 42 58 44 17 46 04 47 35 49 34 50 76 2 12 52 88 54 41 2 25 56 67 58 33 2 40 60 73 ETOWAH 123 78 123 78 127 22 127 22 154 59 154 59 163 53 163 53 173 00 173 00 183 02 183 02 193 63 193 63 FAYETTE 1 10 1 10 0 85 0 85 1 12 1 12 1 12 1 12 1 13 1 13 1 14 1 14 1 14 1 14 FRANKLIN GENEVA GREENE 354 43 358 44 0 03 358 47 440 84 0 04 440 88 465 62 0 04 465 66 491 80 0 04 491 84 519 45 0 05 519 50 548 66 0 05 548 71 0 04 33 61 1 47 0 03 354 46 1 87 1 99 HALE 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 03 0 03 0 03 0 03 0 04 0 04 0 04 0 04 0 04 HENRY 0 54 0 54 0 58 0 58 0 63 0 63 0 66 0 66 0 69 0 69 0 72 0 72 0 74 0 74 89 20 0 17 89 37 81 69 0 28 81 96 89 13 0 31 89 44 88 47 0 30 88 77 87 81 0 30 88 11 87 15 0 30 87 45 86 50 0 30 86 79 HOUSTON 1 065 94 9 23 9 23 9 33 9 33 9 42 9 42 9 52 9 52 9 61 9 61 JEFFERSON 0 50 0 50 0 03 0 55 0 58 0 03 0 60 0 64 0 04 0 64 0 67 0 04 0 67 0 71 0 04 0 71 0 75 0 05 0 75 0 80 LAMAR 0 11 0 11 0 12 0 12 0 13 0 13 0 14 0 14 0 15 0 15 0 16 0 16 0 16 0 16 LAUDERDALE 60 09 60 09 53 86 53 86 49 11 49 11 46 70 46 70 44 42 44 42 42 24 42 24 40 17 40 17 JACKSON 1 054 12 LAWRENCE 2010 33 89 1 58 ESCAMBIA Surface Total Surface Ground 42 28 DALE 33 20 100 00 9 84 DALLAS 1 000 00 32 43 BALDWIN COLBERT 10 000 00 Total Surface Ground 42 26 BARBOUR COFFEE Chart 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawal in MGD 2010 2040 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP 9 84 LEE LIMESTONE 2 725 63 1 054 12 1 065 94 2 725 63 2 496 09 2 496 09 2 723 72 2 723 72 2 703 35 2 703 35 2 683 14 2 683 14 2 663 08 2 663 08 2 643 16 2 643 16 LOWNDES 4 56 4 56 4 61 4 61 5 02 5 02 5 48 5 48 5 98 5 98 6 52 MACON 6 52 MADISON MARENGO 19 20 17 78 17 78 17 78 17 78 18 45 18 45 18 63 18 63 18 82 18 82 19 01 19 01 19 20 MARION MARSHALL 0 08 0 08 0 09 0 09 0 12 0 12 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 14 0 14 0 15 0 15 MOBILE 991 17 MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN 7 03 998 20 1 002 53 9 65 1 012 17 1 232 89 0 69 48 23 46 02 0 79 46 81 48 74 0 89 49 63 51 62 1 00 52 62 54 67 0 14 2 88 3 03 0 13 3 33 3 46 0 12 3 55 3 67 0 12 3 79 3 91 211 28 0 00 211 28 229 50 0 01 229 50 301 95 0 01 301 95 397 80 0 01 397 81 46 31 0 39 46 70 47 54 81 43 0 00 81 44 10 90 1 243 79 1 302 23 12 16 1 314 40 1 375 47 13 63 1 389 11 1 452 84 15 34 1 468 18 1 534 55 1 12 55 80 57 91 17 33 1 551 88 1 26 0 11 4 05 4 16 0 11 4 32 4 43 524 66 0 01 524 67 692 62 0 01 692 63 59 17 PERRY PICKENS 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 PIKE RANDOLPH 27 64 0 92 28 56 27 64 0 92 28 56 28 67 0 96 29 62 28 96 0 97 29 92 29 25 0 98 30 22 29 54 0 99 30 53 29 84 RUSSELL 1 00 30 83 SHELBY 665 45 665 45 672 98 672 98 827 68 827 68 874 21 874 21 923 37 923 37 975 28 975 28 1 030 11 1 030 11 STCLAIR 4 46 4 46 5 71 5 71 6 75 6 75 7 49 7 49 8 31 8 31 9 22 9 22 10 23 10 23 SUMTER 2 03 2 03 2 28 2 28 2 55 2 55 2 77 2 77 3 02 3 02 3 28 3 28 3 58 3 58 24 67 24 67 22 12 22 12 20 17 20 17 19 18 19 18 18 24 18 24 17 34 17 34 16 49 16 49 TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA 2 12 0 74 2 86 2 00 0 76 2 76 2 36 0 82 3 18 2 52 0 91 3 43 2 71 1 01 3 72 2 91 1 13 4 04 3 15 1 26 4 41 1 212 32 1 280 48 1 280 48 1 352 47 1 352 47 1 428 52 128 85 124 11 922 82 922 82 933 26 933 26 1 147 79 1 147 79 1 212 32 WASHINGTON 80 39 6 15 86 55 81 66 6 73 88 39 99 78 8 66 108 44 105 37 9 47 114 84 WILCOX 20 13 20 13 18 05 18 05 16 46 16 46 15 65 15 65 14 88 14 88 14 15 14 15 WALKER WINSTON TOTAL 8 788 97 33 20 8 822 17 8 744 16 45 64 8 789 79 7 399 66 50 81 7 450 47 7 684 25 54 10 7 738 35 111 28 10 36 121 64 8 007 92 57 79 8 065 71 117 52 11 33 8 379 39 61 92 8 441 31 1 428 52 12 40 136 51 13 46 13 46 8 809 94 66 56 8 876 50
20  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  21  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Sel...
20 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 21 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table 8 Water Withdrawal in MGD by County International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 COUNTY Surface Ground AUTAUGA Table 7 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP YEAR Water Source 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Ground 33 20 45 64 50 81 54 10 57 79 61 92 66 56 Surface 8 788 97 8 744 16 7 399 66 7 684 25 8 007 92 8 379 39 8 809 94 Total 8 822 17 8 789 79 7 450 47 7 738 35 8 065 71 8 441 31 8 876 50 32 42 1 00 8 809 94 66 56 8 379 39 61 92 8 007 92 57 79 7 681 25 54 10 7 399 66 50 81 8 788 97 8 744 16 45 64 10 00 Ground 2015 2020 2025 Table 7 and Chart 4 provide a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the water source based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data The forecast indicates that approximately 99 percent of water withdrawn is surface water Ground water is projected to increase by 100 percent during the 31 year period whereas surface water is expected to increase by less than 1 percent Thermo electric is the largest user of surface water and the closing of the two TVA plants significantly impacts the surface water withdrawn 2030 2035 2040 County Level Analysis The county level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each county during the 31 year period Table 8 provides a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each county in the State of Alabama based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data The results indicate that two counties Colbert and Jackson experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each county However some counties experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g Etowah Greene Mobile Morgan Shelby Walker and Washington with increases of 56 percent 55 percent 55 percent 751 percent 55 percent 55 percent and 58 percent The counties with the largest water withdrawals are Limestone Walker Mobile Shelby and Morgan with each county having water withdrawals in excess of 690 million gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these five counties accounts for 83 percent of all water withdrawn 10 21 Total Surface Ground 44 11 34 31 10 31 Total Surface Ground 44 62 34 73 10 42 Total Surface Ground 45 15 35 16 10 52 Total Surface Ground 45 68 35 60 10 63 Total 46 23 1 58 1 32 1 32 1 46 1 46 1 43 1 43 1 40 1 40 1 37 1 37 1 34 1 34 BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK BUTLER 0 30 0 30 0 27 0 27 0 25 0 25 0 24 0 24 0 22 0 22 0 21 0 21 0 20 0 20 1 13 CALHOUN 0 97 0 97 0 98 0 98 1 04 1 04 1 06 1 06 1 09 1 09 1 11 1 11 1 13 CHAMBERS CHEROKEE 0 35 0 35 0 38 0 38 0 43 0 43 0 45 0 45 0 48 0 48 0 50 0 50 0 53 0 53 CHOCTAW 40 80 40 80 36 57 36 57 33 35 33 35 31 71 31 71 30 16 30 16 28 68 28 68 27 27 27 27 CLARKE 13 51 CHILTON 20 21 20 21 18 11 18 11 16 52 16 52 15 71 15 71 14 94 14 94 14 21 14 21 13 51 CLAY CLEBURNE 1 13 1 13 2 06 2 06 2 26 2 26 2 22 2 22 93 19 0 36 93 55 106 29 0 38 106 68 1 331 41 0 31 1 331 72 1 353 63 0 35 1 353 98 2 17 2 17 121 60 0 40 122 00 2 13 2 13 2 09 2 09 139 48 0 42 139 91 160 40 0 45 160 85 CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON 1 74 1 74 1 76 1 76 2 16 2 16 2 28 2 28 2 41 2 41 2 54 2 54 2 69 2 69 CRENSHAW CULLMAN 1 83 0 43 2 26 2 79 0 76 3 55 3 11 0 88 3 99 3 25 0 99 4 24 3 41 1 11 4 52 3 60 1 24 4 85 3 82 1 40 5 22 32 20 0 14 32 34 28 86 0 12 28 99 26 32 0 11 26 43 25 03 0 11 25 13 23 80 0 10 23 90 22 64 0 10 22 73 21 53 0 09 21 62 DEKALB ELMORE 35 08 40 92 1 66 42 58 44 17 46 04 47 35 49 34 50 76 2 12 52 88 54 41 2 25 56 67 58 33 2 40 60 73 ETOWAH 123 78 123 78 127 22 127 22 154 59 154 59 163 53 163 53 173 00 173 00 183 02 183 02 193 63 193 63 FAYETTE 1 10 1 10 0 85 0 85 1 12 1 12 1 12 1 12 1 13 1 13 1 14 1 14 1 14 1 14 FRANKLIN GENEVA GREENE 354 43 358 44 0 03 358 47 440 84 0 04 440 88 465 62 0 04 465 66 491 80 0 04 491 84 519 45 0 05 519 50 548 66 0 05 548 71 0 04 33 61 1 47 0 03 354 46 1 87 1 99 HALE 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 03 0 03 0 03 0 03 0 04 0 04 0 04 0 04 0 04 HENRY 0 54 0 54 0 58 0 58 0 63 0 63 0 66 0 66 0 69 0 69 0 72 0 72 0 74 0 74 89 20 0 17 89 37 81 69 0 28 81 96 89 13 0 31 89 44 88 47 0 30 88 77 87 81 0 30 88 11 87 15 0 30 87 45 86 50 0 30 86 79 HOUSTON 1 065 94 9 23 9 23 9 33 9 33 9 42 9 42 9 52 9 52 9 61 9 61 JEFFERSON 0 50 0 50 0 03 0 55 0 58 0 03 0 60 0 64 0 04 0 64 0 67 0 04 0 67 0 71 0 04 0 71 0 75 0 05 0 75 0 80 LAMAR 0 11 0 11 0 12 0 12 0 13 0 13 0 14 0 14 0 15 0 15 0 16 0 16 0 16 0 16 LAUDERDALE 60 09 60 09 53 86 53 86 49 11 49 11 46 70 46 70 44 42 44 42 42 24 42 24 40 17 40 17 JACKSON 1 054 12 LAWRENCE 2010 33 89 1 58 ESCAMBIA Surface Total Surface Ground 42 28 DALE 33 20 100 00 9 84 DALLAS 1 000 00 32 43 BALDWIN COLBERT 10 000 00 Total Surface Ground 42 26 BARBOUR COFFEE Chart 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawal in MGD 2010 2040 International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP 9 84 LEE LIMESTONE 2 725 63 1 054 12 1 065 94 2 725 63 2 496 09 2 496 09 2 723 72 2 723 72 2 703 35 2 703 35 2 683 14 2 683 14 2 663 08 2 663 08 2 643 16 2 643 16 LOWNDES 4 56 4 56 4 61 4 61 5 02 5 02 5 48 5 48 5 98 5 98 6 52 MACON 6 52 MADISON MARENGO 19 20 17 78 17 78 17 78 17 78 18 45 18 45 18 63 18 63 18 82 18 82 19 01 19 01 19 20 MARION MARSHALL 0 08 0 08 0 09 0 09 0 12 0 12 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 14 0 14 0 15 0 15 MOBILE 991 17 MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN 7 03 998 20 1 002 53 9 65 1 012 17 1 232 89 0 69 48 23 46 02 0 79 46 81 48 74 0 89 49 63 51 62 1 00 52 62 54 67 0 14 2 88 3 03 0 13 3 33 3 46 0 12 3 55 3 67 0 12 3 79 3 91 211 28 0 00 211 28 229 50 0 01 229 50 301 95 0 01 301 95 397 80 0 01 397 81 46 31 0 39 46 70 47 54 81 43 0 00 81 44 10 90 1 243 79 1 302 23 12 16 1 314 40 1 375 47 13 63 1 389 11 1 452 84 15 34 1 468 18 1 534 55 1 12 55 80 57 91 17 33 1 551 88 1 26 0 11 4 05 4 16 0 11 4 32 4 43 524 66 0 01 524 67 692 62 0 01 692 63 59 17 PERRY PICKENS 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 PIKE RANDOLPH 27 64 0 92 28 56 27 64 0 92 28 56 28 67 0 96 29 62 28 96 0 97 29 92 29 25 0 98 30 22 29 54 0 99 30 53 29 84 RUSSELL 1 00 30 83 SHELBY 665 45 665 45 672 98 672 98 827 68 827 68 874 21 874 21 923 37 923 37 975 28 975 28 1 030 11 1 030 11 STCLAIR 4 46 4 46 5 71 5 71 6 75 6 75 7 49 7 49 8 31 8 31 9 22 9 22 10 23 10 23 SUMTER 2 03 2 03 2 28 2 28 2 55 2 55 2 77 2 77 3 02 3 02 3 28 3 28 3 58 3 58 24 67 24 67 22 12 22 12 20 17 20 17 19 18 19 18 18 24 18 24 17 34 17 34 16 49 16 49 TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA 2 12 0 74 2 86 2 00 0 76 2 76 2 36 0 82 3 18 2 52 0 91 3 43 2 71 1 01 3 72 2 91 1 13 4 04 3 15 1 26 4 41 1 212 32 1 280 48 1 280 48 1 352 47 1 352 47 1 428 52 128 85 124 11 922 82 922 82 933 26 933 26 1 147 79 1 147 79 1 212 32 WASHINGTON 80 39 6 15 86 55 81 66 6 73 88 39 99 78 8 66 108 44 105 37 9 47 114 84 WILCOX 20 13 20 13 18 05 18 05 16 46 16 46 15 65 15 65 14 88 14 88 14 15 14 15 WALKER WINSTON TOTAL 8 788 97 33 20 8 822 17 8 744 16 45 64 8 789 79 7 399 66 50 81 7 450 47 7 684 25 54 10 7 738 35 111 28 10 36 121 64 8 007 92 57 79 8 065 71 117 52 11 33 8 379 39 61 92 8 441 31 1 428 52 12 40 136 51 13 46 13 46 8 809 94 66 56 8 876 50
20  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  21  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Sel...
22 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 23 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 HUC Level Analysis Table 9 Water Withdrawal in MGD by HUC International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP The HUC level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each HUC during the 31 year period Table 9 provides a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each HUC in the State of Alabama based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data The results indicate that two HUCs 06030001 and 06030005 experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each HUC However some HUCs experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g 03140304 0350106 03150107 3160109 3160113 03160203 and 03160204 with increases of 73 percent 44 percent 55 percent 55 percent 55 percent 41 percent and 55 percent respectively The HUCs with the largest water withdrawals are 03150107 03160109 03160204 and 06030002 with each HUC having water withdrawals in excess of 1 billion gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these four HUCs accounts for 83 percent of all water withdrawn 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 HUC Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total 03130002 03130003 27 64 2 50 30 14 27 64 2 25 29 88 28 67 2 41 31 08 28 96 2 39 31 35 29 25 2 37 31 62 29 54 2 36 31 90 29 84 2 34 32 18 03130004 89 20 0 44 89 64 81 69 0 57 82 25 89 13 0 62 89 76 88 47 0 63 89 10 87 81 0 64 88 45 87 15 0 66 87 81 86 50 0 67 87 17 03130012 03140103 03140104 03140106 03140107 03140201 0 27 0 27 1 40 1 40 1 53 1 53 1 52 1 52 1 51 1 51 1 50 1 50 1 49 1 49 03140202 1 13 1 13 0 95 0 95 1 04 1 04 1 02 1 02 1 00 1 00 0 98 0 98 0 96 0 96 03140203 03140301 1 74 1 74 1 76 1 76 2 16 2 16 2 28 2 28 2 41 2 41 2 54 2 54 2 69 2 69 03140302 03140303 0 30 0 30 0 27 0 27 0 25 0 25 0 24 0 24 0 22 0 22 0 21 0 21 0 20 0 20 03140304 33 61 1 38 34 99 40 92 1 57 42 48 44 17 1 76 45 94 47 35 1 87 49 23 50 76 1 99 52 75 54 41 2 12 56 53 58 33 2 25 60 59 03140305 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 10 0 10 0 11 0 11 0 12 0 12 0 13 0 13 0 14 0 14 03150105 03150106 152 91 0 97 153 88 155 04 0 98 156 02 181 50 1 04 182 55 190 20 1 06 191 26 199 55 1 09 200 63 209 59 1 11 210 69 220 35 03150107 665 45 665 45 672 98 672 98 827 68 827 68 874 21 874 21 923 37 923 37 975 28 975 28 1 030 11 03150108 03150109 03150110 03150201 64 62 10 33 74 95 61 44 17 79 79 23 79 03 59 46 19 45 78 91 03150202 0 16 0 16 0 03 0 20 0 23 0 03 0 24 0 27 0 04 0 26 0 30 0 04 0 29 0 33 0 04 0 32 0 37 0 05 0 36 0 41 03150203 20 13 20 13 18 05 18 05 16 46 16 46 15 65 15 65 14 88 14 88 14 15 14 15 13 46 13 46 1 00 1 12 1 26 59 17 60 34 18 68 58 65 20 26 78 91 57 91 21 14 79 05 1 13 57 24 22 09 221 48 1 030 11 79 32 03150204 46 31 0 39 46 70 47 54 0 69 48 23 46 02 0 79 46 81 48 74 0 89 49 63 51 62 52 62 54 67 55 80 57 91 03160101 03160103 03160105 0 11 0 11 0 12 0 12 0 13 0 13 0 14 0 14 0 15 0 15 0 16 0 16 0 16 0 16 03160106 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 03160107 03160108 03160109 924 65 936 04 0 76 936 81 03160110 03160111 0 34 0 34 0 35 0 35 0 37 0 37 0 38 0 38 0 38 0 38 0 39 0 39 0 40 0 40 0 20 03160112 2 19 03160113 355 47 0 43 925 08 1 150 90 0 88 1 151 77 1 215 57 0 99 1 216 56 1 283 90 1 11 1 285 00 1 356 08 1 24 1 357 32 1 432 34 1 40 1 433 73 2 39 1 70 0 18 1 88 2 22 0 18 2 41 2 23 0 19 2 42 2 25 0 19 2 44 2 26 0 20 2 45 2 27 0 20 2 47 0 58 356 05 359 59 0 64 360 23 442 09 0 70 442 79 467 03 0 79 467 83 493 39 0 90 494 29 521 24 1 02 522 26 550 68 1 15 551 83 03160201 59 50 59 50 55 29 55 29 52 70 52 70 51 30 51 30 49 99 49 99 48 76 48 76 47 61 03160202 1 11 1 11 1 34 1 34 1 64 1 64 1 81 1 81 2 00 2 00 2 21 2 21 2 44 03160203 100 60 7 08 107 68 99 78 107 63 116 30 126 22 121 08 03160204 991 17 4 94 996 11 1 002 53 6 63 1 009 16 1 232 89 03160205 1 16 1 16 1 88 1 88 2 21 2 21 2 61 2 61 3 09 3 09 3 66 3 66 4 34 4 34 03170002 03170003 03170008 03170009 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 06020001 0 12 9 36 9 33 0 13 9 46 9 42 0 13 9 56 9 52 0 14 9 66 9 61 0 15 9 76 3 125 35 0 01 3 125 36 3 229 98 0 01 3 229 99 3 375 95 7 86 06030001 1 054 12 0 08 1 054 20 1 065 94 0 09 1 066 03 9 23 06030002 2 867 15 3 002 33 9 93 7 43 1 240 31 1 302 23 10 84 131 92 8 19 1 310 42 126 22 11 84 1 375 47 138 06 9 06 1 384 54 131 73 12 93 144 66 1 452 84 10 08 1 462 92 137 62 14 14 1 534 55 47 61 2 44 151 76 11 26 1 545 81 0 00 2 867 15 2 761 23 0 00 2 761 24 0 01 3 002 34 3 052 00 0 01 3 052 01 06030003 06030004 93 19 0 36 93 55 106 29 0 38 106 68 121 60 0 40 122 00 139 48 0 42 139 91 160 40 0 45 160 85 06030005 06030006 TOTAL 1 331 41 8 788 97 0 31 1 331 72 1 353 63 0 35 1 353 98 33 20 8 822 17 8 744 16 45 64 8 789 79 7 399 66 50 81 7 450 47 7 684 25 54 10 7 738 35 8 007 92 57 79 8 065 71 8 379 39 61 92 8 441 31 0 01 3 375 96 8 809 94 66 56 8 876 50
22  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  23  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Sel...
22 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 23 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 HUC Level Analysis Table 9 Water Withdrawal in MGD by HUC International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP The HUC level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each HUC during the 31 year period Table 9 provides a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each HUC in the State of Alabama based on the International Forecasting Service Deflated GDP data The results indicate that two HUCs 06030001 and 06030005 experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each HUC However some HUCs experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g 03140304 0350106 03150107 3160109 3160113 03160203 and 03160204 with increases of 73 percent 44 percent 55 percent 55 percent 55 percent 41 percent and 55 percent respectively The HUCs with the largest water withdrawals are 03150107 03160109 03160204 and 06030002 with each HUC having water withdrawals in excess of 1 billion gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these four HUCs accounts for 83 percent of all water withdrawn 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 HUC Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total 03130002 03130003 27 64 2 50 30 14 27 64 2 25 29 88 28 67 2 41 31 08 28 96 2 39 31 35 29 25 2 37 31 62 29 54 2 36 31 90 29 84 2 34 32 18 03130004 89 20 0 44 89 64 81 69 0 57 82 25 89 13 0 62 89 76 88 47 0 63 89 10 87 81 0 64 88 45 87 15 0 66 87 81 86 50 0 67 87 17 03130012 03140103 03140104 03140106 03140107 03140201 0 27 0 27 1 40 1 40 1 53 1 53 1 52 1 52 1 51 1 51 1 50 1 50 1 49 1 49 03140202 1 13 1 13 0 95 0 95 1 04 1 04 1 02 1 02 1 00 1 00 0 98 0 98 0 96 0 96 03140203 03140301 1 74 1 74 1 76 1 76 2 16 2 16 2 28 2 28 2 41 2 41 2 54 2 54 2 69 2 69 03140302 03140303 0 30 0 30 0 27 0 27 0 25 0 25 0 24 0 24 0 22 0 22 0 21 0 21 0 20 0 20 03140304 33 61 1 38 34 99 40 92 1 57 42 48 44 17 1 76 45 94 47 35 1 87 49 23 50 76 1 99 52 75 54 41 2 12 56 53 58 33 2 25 60 59 03140305 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 10 0 10 0 11 0 11 0 12 0 12 0 13 0 13 0 14 0 14 03150105 03150106 152 91 0 97 153 88 155 04 0 98 156 02 181 50 1 04 182 55 190 20 1 06 191 26 199 55 1 09 200 63 209 59 1 11 210 69 220 35 03150107 665 45 665 45 672 98 672 98 827 68 827 68 874 21 874 21 923 37 923 37 975 28 975 28 1 030 11 03150108 03150109 03150110 03150201 64 62 10 33 74 95 61 44 17 79 79 23 79 03 59 46 19 45 78 91 03150202 0 16 0 16 0 03 0 20 0 23 0 03 0 24 0 27 0 04 0 26 0 30 0 04 0 29 0 33 0 04 0 32 0 37 0 05 0 36 0 41 03150203 20 13 20 13 18 05 18 05 16 46 16 46 15 65 15 65 14 88 14 88 14 15 14 15 13 46 13 46 1 00 1 12 1 26 59 17 60 34 18 68 58 65 20 26 78 91 57 91 21 14 79 05 1 13 57 24 22 09 221 48 1 030 11 79 32 03150204 46 31 0 39 46 70 47 54 0 69 48 23 46 02 0 79 46 81 48 74 0 89 49 63 51 62 52 62 54 67 55 80 57 91 03160101 03160103 03160105 0 11 0 11 0 12 0 12 0 13 0 13 0 14 0 14 0 15 0 15 0 16 0 16 0 16 0 16 03160106 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 03160107 03160108 03160109 924 65 936 04 0 76 936 81 03160110 03160111 0 34 0 34 0 35 0 35 0 37 0 37 0 38 0 38 0 38 0 38 0 39 0 39 0 40 0 40 0 20 03160112 2 19 03160113 355 47 0 43 925 08 1 150 90 0 88 1 151 77 1 215 57 0 99 1 216 56 1 283 90 1 11 1 285 00 1 356 08 1 24 1 357 32 1 432 34 1 40 1 433 73 2 39 1 70 0 18 1 88 2 22 0 18 2 41 2 23 0 19 2 42 2 25 0 19 2 44 2 26 0 20 2 45 2 27 0 20 2 47 0 58 356 05 359 59 0 64 360 23 442 09 0 70 442 79 467 03 0 79 467 83 493 39 0 90 494 29 521 24 1 02 522 26 550 68 1 15 551 83 03160201 59 50 59 50 55 29 55 29 52 70 52 70 51 30 51 30 49 99 49 99 48 76 48 76 47 61 03160202 1 11 1 11 1 34 1 34 1 64 1 64 1 81 1 81 2 00 2 00 2 21 2 21 2 44 03160203 100 60 7 08 107 68 99 78 107 63 116 30 126 22 121 08 03160204 991 17 4 94 996 11 1 002 53 6 63 1 009 16 1 232 89 03160205 1 16 1 16 1 88 1 88 2 21 2 21 2 61 2 61 3 09 3 09 3 66 3 66 4 34 4 34 03170002 03170003 03170008 03170009 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 06020001 0 12 9 36 9 33 0 13 9 46 9 42 0 13 9 56 9 52 0 14 9 66 9 61 0 15 9 76 3 125 35 0 01 3 125 36 3 229 98 0 01 3 229 99 3 375 95 7 86 06030001 1 054 12 0 08 1 054 20 1 065 94 0 09 1 066 03 9 23 06030002 2 867 15 3 002 33 9 93 7 43 1 240 31 1 302 23 10 84 131 92 8 19 1 310 42 126 22 11 84 1 375 47 138 06 9 06 1 384 54 131 73 12 93 144 66 1 452 84 10 08 1 462 92 137 62 14 14 1 534 55 47 61 2 44 151 76 11 26 1 545 81 0 00 2 867 15 2 761 23 0 00 2 761 24 0 01 3 002 34 3 052 00 0 01 3 052 01 06030003 06030004 93 19 0 36 93 55 106 29 0 38 106 68 121 60 0 40 122 00 139 48 0 42 139 91 160 40 0 45 160 85 06030005 06030006 TOTAL 1 331 41 8 788 97 0 31 1 331 72 1 353 63 0 35 1 353 98 33 20 8 822 17 8 744 16 45 64 8 789 79 7 399 66 50 81 7 450 47 7 684 25 54 10 7 738 35 8 007 92 57 79 8 065 71 8 379 39 61 92 8 441 31 0 01 3 375 96 8 809 94 66 56 8 876 50
22  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  23  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Sel...
24 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Limitations of This Study Data Limitations This study has several limitations that are caused by data limitations The first major limitation resulting from data limitations is the accuracy of the water withdrawal estimates provided by the self supplied users If these data are not accurate then all of the forecasts are compromised The second major limitation is that the intended usage of water withdrawals by the self supplied user is unknown The current survey of selfsupplied users does not request that information Knowledge about the intended usage of the water withdrawal may have a significant impact on the estimation of future water withdrawal and the appropriate metric for estimating future withdrawals Some water withdrawals are directly related to output because they are integral components of the output e g ice manufacturing enterprise Other water withdrawals would not be an integral component of the output e g water used by lumber mills to prevent timber from drying prior to processing A third limitation is the aggregation of the employment and GDP data that are used to calculate the forecasts Some of the data are aggregated at the national level and some are aggregated across multiple industries This aggregation creates potential problems with developing accurate forecasts Estimation Methods The first major limitation that is associated with the estimation methods is that it is highly likely that a singular approach to estimating water withdrawals may not be the most accurate because of the fundamental difference in the nature of water withdrawals A model that estimates water withdrawal using specific models for NAICS codes may be the most appropriate A second major limitation is that it is assumed that there will be no changes in the number of self supplied users This means that there will be no new COUs after 2013 and no additional terminations after 2016 This has the potential to significantly alter the forecasts because two industrial users that withdraw large amounts of water TVA Widows Creek Fossil Plant and TVA Colbert Fossil Plant are being closed during the estimation period TVA will be replacing these thermoelectric plants but the exact type of replacement has not been determined Therefore the forecasts for water withdrawal underestimate water withdrawals for all time periods after the closure of these two plants A fourth major limitation is that it is assumed that the current rate of water withdrawal will remain constant for the next 31 years This is highly unlikely given the innovations and process changes that may occur during that time period If the rate of usage changes because of technological changes then the accuracy of the forecasts will be compromised A fifth major limitation of this study is that it does not address water returns Most industrial users that withdraw large amounts of water also return large amounts of water In some cases this results in negative water usage References Recommended Areas for Additional Study Oklahoma Office of Water Resources 2011 The State of Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan 2012 Update of the Water Forecast Demand Retrieved from https www owrb ok gov supply ocwp pdf_ocwp WaterPlanUpdate WaterDemandForecastReport pdf There are three areas recommended for additional study The first is to address the impact of water returns The current study does not address this and water returns is an important aspect of water withdrawals for several industries especially thermo electric The second is to address the accuracy of all five methods based on historical data The assessment of the accuracy of each method has been subjective and based upon logical reasoning However sufficient data exists to evaluate the accuracy of the five methods The third is to identify the water withdrawal driver for industries The identification of a water withdrawal driver may increase the accuracy of water withdrawal forecasts The current study has raw data on water withdrawals but there is no information regarding how the water is used Knowledge regarding the use of the water e g an integral component of the output versus an item used to clean or cool the finished output Alabama Office of Water Resources Division 2015a Industrial Water Demand 1993 2013 Excel Spreadsheet Alabama Office of Water Resources Division 2015b University of Alabama Economic Projections 2010 2040 Excel Spreadsheet Bureau of Labor Statistics 2015 Labor and Productivity Costs Retrieved from http www bls gov lpc prodybar htm EMSI 2015 Employment Data by 3 Digit NAICS Code Retrieved from http www economicmodeling com IBISWorld 2015 GDP Data by 5 Digit NAICS Code Retrieved from http www ibisworld com Idaho Department of Water Resources 2001 Domestic Commercial Municipal and Industrial DCMI Water Demand Assessment and Forecast in Ada and Canyon Counties Idaho Retrieved from https www idwr idaho gov waterboard WaterPlanning PDFs DCMI_Report pdf 25
24  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
24 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Limitations of This Study Data Limitations This study has several limitations that are caused by data limitations The first major limitation resulting from data limitations is the accuracy of the water withdrawal estimates provided by the self supplied users If these data are not accurate then all of the forecasts are compromised The second major limitation is that the intended usage of water withdrawals by the self supplied user is unknown The current survey of selfsupplied users does not request that information Knowledge about the intended usage of the water withdrawal may have a significant impact on the estimation of future water withdrawal and the appropriate metric for estimating future withdrawals Some water withdrawals are directly related to output because they are integral components of the output e g ice manufacturing enterprise Other water withdrawals would not be an integral component of the output e g water used by lumber mills to prevent timber from drying prior to processing A third limitation is the aggregation of the employment and GDP data that are used to calculate the forecasts Some of the data are aggregated at the national level and some are aggregated across multiple industries This aggregation creates potential problems with developing accurate forecasts Estimation Methods The first major limitation that is associated with the estimation methods is that it is highly likely that a singular approach to estimating water withdrawals may not be the most accurate because of the fundamental difference in the nature of water withdrawals A model that estimates water withdrawal using specific models for NAICS codes may be the most appropriate A second major limitation is that it is assumed that there will be no changes in the number of self supplied users This means that there will be no new COUs after 2013 and no additional terminations after 2016 This has the potential to significantly alter the forecasts because two industrial users that withdraw large amounts of water TVA Widows Creek Fossil Plant and TVA Colbert Fossil Plant are being closed during the estimation period TVA will be replacing these thermoelectric plants but the exact type of replacement has not been determined Therefore the forecasts for water withdrawal underestimate water withdrawals for all time periods after the closure of these two plants A fourth major limitation is that it is assumed that the current rate of water withdrawal will remain constant for the next 31 years This is highly unlikely given the innovations and process changes that may occur during that time period If the rate of usage changes because of technological changes then the accuracy of the forecasts will be compromised A fifth major limitation of this study is that it does not address water returns Most industrial users that withdraw large amounts of water also return large amounts of water In some cases this results in negative water usage References Recommended Areas for Additional Study Oklahoma Office of Water Resources 2011 The State of Oklahoma Comprehensive Water Plan 2012 Update of the Water Forecast Demand Retrieved from https www owrb ok gov supply ocwp pdf_ocwp WaterPlanUpdate WaterDemandForecastReport pdf There are three areas recommended for additional study The first is to address the impact of water returns The current study does not address this and water returns is an important aspect of water withdrawals for several industries especially thermo electric The second is to address the accuracy of all five methods based on historical data The assessment of the accuracy of each method has been subjective and based upon logical reasoning However sufficient data exists to evaluate the accuracy of the five methods The third is to identify the water withdrawal driver for industries The identification of a water withdrawal driver may increase the accuracy of water withdrawal forecasts The current study has raw data on water withdrawals but there is no information regarding how the water is used Knowledge regarding the use of the water e g an integral component of the output versus an item used to clean or cool the finished output Alabama Office of Water Resources Division 2015a Industrial Water Demand 1993 2013 Excel Spreadsheet Alabama Office of Water Resources Division 2015b University of Alabama Economic Projections 2010 2040 Excel Spreadsheet Bureau of Labor Statistics 2015 Labor and Productivity Costs Retrieved from http www bls gov lpc prodybar htm EMSI 2015 Employment Data by 3 Digit NAICS Code Retrieved from http www economicmodeling com IBISWorld 2015 GDP Data by 5 Digit NAICS Code Retrieved from http www ibisworld com Idaho Department of Water Resources 2001 Domestic Commercial Municipal and Industrial DCMI Water Demand Assessment and Forecast in Ada and Canyon Counties Idaho Retrieved from https www idwr idaho gov waterboard WaterPlanning PDFs DCMI_Report pdf 25
24  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
26 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Biographical Information of Authors Dr Bill Hamby is the Director of Accreditation for the Sorrell College of Business and an Associate Professor of Accounting at Troy University He earned his Ph D in Accounting with a minor in Statistics from the University of Alabama in 1992 He has a B S in Accounting and MIS from the University of North Alabama He has 26 years of full time teaching experience and has taught at the following institutions Indiana Wesleyan University Lincoln Memorial University Thomas University Saint Mary s University Nova Scotia University of West Georgia and University of South Alabama He has served nine years in administration as a Dean Division Chair Department Chair and Director of Accreditation His primary teaching responsibilities and research interests relate to accounting information systems and managerial accounting He has published in Academy of Business Research Journal The Journal of American Academy of Business Cambridge Advances in Accounting Information Systems Employee Benefits Journal and CPA Journal Dr Hamby has been active in consulting and currently is a Marketing Executive with Ivy Software Dr Hamby is a native of Alabama but has also lived in Georgia Tennessee Indiana and Nova Scotia He is married and has three children Dr Judson Edwards is Dean of the Sorrell College of Business at Troy University Troy Alabama Prior to his appointment as Dean he served as a tenured Associate Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for International Business and Economic Development at Troy University Dr Edwards created the vision and established within the college the Center for Water Resource Economics on the Phenix City Campus In addition to his accomplishments as Dean he is the author of numerous peer reviewed publications including his book Digital Deliverance Dragging Rural America Kicking and Screaming Into the Information Economy He received a B S in Economics from Troy University and M S and Ph D in International Economic Development from The University of Southern Mississippi Before returning to his alma mater Dr Edwards served as Director of the Economic Development Master s Program and tenure track faculty at The University of Southern Mississippi He also served as tenuretrack faculty at the University of North Dakota Before assuming administrative duties as Dean he held the positions of Senior Editorial Advisor to Applied Research in Economic Development Journal of the Council of Community and Economic Research Managing Editor of The Economic Development Review Journal of the American Economic Development Council and Editorial Board Member of Community Development Journal of the Community Development Society Dr Edwards is a former member of the Agriculture Advisory Board of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and previously served on the Special Advisory Committee of the Alabama Rural Action Commission and the Alabama Rural Broadband Initiative under former Governor Bob Riley He and wife Stacy are from Phenix City Alabama and have two children Carter and Maggie Appendix A Water Withdrawal Forecasts based on University of Alabama Employment Data 27
26  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
26 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Biographical Information of Authors Dr Bill Hamby is the Director of Accreditation for the Sorrell College of Business and an Associate Professor of Accounting at Troy University He earned his Ph D in Accounting with a minor in Statistics from the University of Alabama in 1992 He has a B S in Accounting and MIS from the University of North Alabama He has 26 years of full time teaching experience and has taught at the following institutions Indiana Wesleyan University Lincoln Memorial University Thomas University Saint Mary s University Nova Scotia University of West Georgia and University of South Alabama He has served nine years in administration as a Dean Division Chair Department Chair and Director of Accreditation His primary teaching responsibilities and research interests relate to accounting information systems and managerial accounting He has published in Academy of Business Research Journal The Journal of American Academy of Business Cambridge Advances in Accounting Information Systems Employee Benefits Journal and CPA Journal Dr Hamby has been active in consulting and currently is a Marketing Executive with Ivy Software Dr Hamby is a native of Alabama but has also lived in Georgia Tennessee Indiana and Nova Scotia He is married and has three children Dr Judson Edwards is Dean of the Sorrell College of Business at Troy University Troy Alabama Prior to his appointment as Dean he served as a tenured Associate Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for International Business and Economic Development at Troy University Dr Edwards created the vision and established within the college the Center for Water Resource Economics on the Phenix City Campus In addition to his accomplishments as Dean he is the author of numerous peer reviewed publications including his book Digital Deliverance Dragging Rural America Kicking and Screaming Into the Information Economy He received a B S in Economics from Troy University and M S and Ph D in International Economic Development from The University of Southern Mississippi Before returning to his alma mater Dr Edwards served as Director of the Economic Development Master s Program and tenure track faculty at The University of Southern Mississippi He also served as tenuretrack faculty at the University of North Dakota Before assuming administrative duties as Dean he held the positions of Senior Editorial Advisor to Applied Research in Economic Development Journal of the Council of Community and Economic Research Managing Editor of The Economic Development Review Journal of the American Economic Development Council and Editorial Board Member of Community Development Journal of the Community Development Society Dr Edwards is a former member of the Agriculture Advisory Board of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and previously served on the Special Advisory Committee of the Alabama Rural Action Commission and the Alabama Rural Broadband Initiative under former Governor Bob Riley He and wife Stacy are from Phenix City Alabama and have two children Carter and Maggie Appendix A Water Withdrawal Forecasts based on University of Alabama Employment Data 27
26  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
28 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 29 State Level Analysis Chart A 1 1 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 University of Alabama Employment Ground Water Withdrawals Table A 1 provides a breakdown of ground water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data The forecasts indicate that Thermo electric Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in ground water withdrawal with increases of 89 percent 74 percent and 75 percent respectively Mining Pulp and Paper and Wholesale will experience modest increases of 15 percent 11 percent and 4 percent respectively Total ground water withdrawals are forecast to increase by 52 percent Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table A 1 Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mining 0 24 0 26 0 27 0 27 Thermo electric 0 20 0 36 0 38 0 38 Pulp and Paper 11 78 12 45 12 91 12 99 Petrochemical 10 96 16 30 17 24 17 70 Other Manufacturing 10 01 14 73 15 63 16 09 Wholesale 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 Total 33 20 44 12 46 44 47 45 2030 0 27 0 39 12 99 18 08 16 49 0 02 48 24 2035 0 27 0 38 13 04 18 53 16 96 0 02 49 20 2040 0 27 0 38 13 13 19 04 17 50 0 02 50 34 Chart A 1 2 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 University of Alabama Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale The following charts Chart A 1 1 Chart A 1 4 provide the breakdown of ground water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Pulp and Paper industrial users declines while the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
28  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
28 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 29 State Level Analysis Chart A 1 1 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 University of Alabama Employment Ground Water Withdrawals Table A 1 provides a breakdown of ground water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data The forecasts indicate that Thermo electric Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in ground water withdrawal with increases of 89 percent 74 percent and 75 percent respectively Mining Pulp and Paper and Wholesale will experience modest increases of 15 percent 11 percent and 4 percent respectively Total ground water withdrawals are forecast to increase by 52 percent Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table A 1 Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mining 0 24 0 26 0 27 0 27 Thermo electric 0 20 0 36 0 38 0 38 Pulp and Paper 11 78 12 45 12 91 12 99 Petrochemical 10 96 16 30 17 24 17 70 Other Manufacturing 10 01 14 73 15 63 16 09 Wholesale 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 Total 33 20 44 12 46 44 47 45 2030 0 27 0 39 12 99 18 08 16 49 0 02 48 24 2035 0 27 0 38 13 04 18 53 16 96 0 02 49 20 2040 0 27 0 38 13 13 19 04 17 50 0 02 50 34 Chart A 1 2 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 University of Alabama Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale The following charts Chart A 1 1 Chart A 1 4 provide the breakdown of ground water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Pulp and Paper industrial users declines while the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
28  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
30 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart A 1 3 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 University of Alabama Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Surface Water Withdrawals Table A 2 provides a breakdown of surface water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data The forecasts indicate that Mining Pulp and Paper Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience moderate increases in surface water withdrawal with increases of 5 percent 14 percent 16 percent and 34 percent respectively Thermo electric will experience an 18 percent decline Total surface water withdrawals are forecast to decrease by 16 percent Wholesale Table A 2 Surface Water Withdrawal Data in MGD University of Alabama Employment Chart A 1 4 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 University of Alabama Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mining 3 30 3 29 3 41 3 44 3 44 3 45 Thermo electric 8 251 64 8 937 56 6 826 03 6 912 00 7 004 59 6 924 01 Pulp and Paper 369 99 387 53 404 34 409 40 412 01 416 44 Petrochemical 140 28 155 57 161 12 161 70 161 37 161 57 Other Manufacturing 23 77 28 79 30 16 30 64 30 97 31 40 Wholesale 0 03 0 03 0 03 0 03 0 03 Total 8 788 97 9 512 77 7 425 10 7 517 21 7 612 40 7 536 90 2040 3 46 6 780 41 422 10 162 13 31 95 0 03 7 400 09 31
30  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
30 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart A 1 3 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 University of Alabama Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Surface Water Withdrawals Table A 2 provides a breakdown of surface water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data The forecasts indicate that Mining Pulp and Paper Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience moderate increases in surface water withdrawal with increases of 5 percent 14 percent 16 percent and 34 percent respectively Thermo electric will experience an 18 percent decline Total surface water withdrawals are forecast to decrease by 16 percent Wholesale Table A 2 Surface Water Withdrawal Data in MGD University of Alabama Employment Chart A 1 4 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 University of Alabama Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mining 3 30 3 29 3 41 3 44 3 44 3 45 Thermo electric 8 251 64 8 937 56 6 826 03 6 912 00 7 004 59 6 924 01 Pulp and Paper 369 99 387 53 404 34 409 40 412 01 416 44 Petrochemical 140 28 155 57 161 12 161 70 161 37 161 57 Other Manufacturing 23 77 28 79 30 16 30 64 30 97 31 40 Wholesale 0 03 0 03 0 03 0 03 0 03 Total 8 788 97 9 512 77 7 425 10 7 517 21 7 612 40 7 536 90 2040 3 46 6 780 41 422 10 162 13 31 95 0 03 7 400 09 31
30  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
32 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 The following charts Chart A 2 1 Chart A 2 4 provide the breakdown of surface water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Pulp and Paper industrial users increases This is consistent with closing of two TVA thermo electric plants and the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart A 2 1 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 University of Alabama Employment Chart A 2 3 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 University of Alabama Employment Mining Mining Thermo electric Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Wholesale Wholesale Chart A 2 2 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 University of Alabama Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart A 2 4 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 University of Alabama Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 33
32  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  The following charts, Chart A-2.1     Cha...
32 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 The following charts Chart A 2 1 Chart A 2 4 provide the breakdown of surface water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Pulp and Paper industrial users increases This is consistent with closing of two TVA thermo electric plants and the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart A 2 1 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 University of Alabama Employment Chart A 2 3 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 University of Alabama Employment Mining Mining Thermo electric Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Wholesale Wholesale Chart A 2 2 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 University of Alabama Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart A 2 4 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 University of Alabama Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 33
32  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  The following charts, Chart A-2.1     Cha...
34 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart A 3 1 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 University of Alabama Employment Total Water Withdrawals Table A 3 provides a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data The forecasts indicate that Mining Pulp and Paper Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience moderate increases in total water withdrawal with increases of 6 percent 14 percent 20 percent and 46 percent respectively Thermo electric will experience an 18 percent decline and Wholesale will experience a 161 percent increase Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table A 3 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD University of Alabama Employment YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mining 3 53 3 55 3 68 3 71 3 71 3 72 Thermo electric 8 251 84 8 937 92 6 826 41 6 912 39 7 004 97 6 924 39 Pulp and Paper 381 77 399 98 417 25 422 39 425 00 429 48 Petrochemical 151 24 171 88 178 36 179 39 179 45 180 11 Other Manufacturing 33 78 43 52 45 79 46 74 47 46 48 36 Wholesale 0 02 0 04 0 05 0 05 0 05 0 05 Total 8 822 17 9 556 89 7 471 54 7 564 66 7 660 64 7 586 10 2040 3 73 6 780 79 435 23 181 17 49 45 0 05 7 450 42 Chart A 3 2 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 University of Alabama Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 35 The following charts Chart A 3 1 Chart A 3 4 provide the breakdown of total water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of total water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of total water withdrawn by Petrochemical Pulp and Paper and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the closing of two TVA thermo electric plants and the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
34  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
34 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart A 3 1 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 University of Alabama Employment Total Water Withdrawals Table A 3 provides a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data The forecasts indicate that Mining Pulp and Paper Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience moderate increases in total water withdrawal with increases of 6 percent 14 percent 20 percent and 46 percent respectively Thermo electric will experience an 18 percent decline and Wholesale will experience a 161 percent increase Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table A 3 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD University of Alabama Employment YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mining 3 53 3 55 3 68 3 71 3 71 3 72 Thermo electric 8 251 84 8 937 92 6 826 41 6 912 39 7 004 97 6 924 39 Pulp and Paper 381 77 399 98 417 25 422 39 425 00 429 48 Petrochemical 151 24 171 88 178 36 179 39 179 45 180 11 Other Manufacturing 33 78 43 52 45 79 46 74 47 46 48 36 Wholesale 0 02 0 04 0 05 0 05 0 05 0 05 Total 8 822 17 9 556 89 7 471 54 7 564 66 7 660 64 7 586 10 2040 3 73 6 780 79 435 23 181 17 49 45 0 05 7 450 42 Chart A 3 2 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 University of Alabama Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 35 The following charts Chart A 3 1 Chart A 3 4 provide the breakdown of total water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of total water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of total water withdrawn by Petrochemical Pulp and Paper and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the closing of two TVA thermo electric plants and the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
34  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart A 3 3 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 University of Alabama Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Table A 4 and Chart A 4 provide a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the water source based on the University of Alabama Study using Employment data The forecast indicates that approximately 99 percent of water withdrawn is surface water Ground water is projected to increase by 52 percent during the 31 year period whereas surface water is expected to decrease by 16 percent Thermo electric is the largest user of surface water and the closing of the two TVA plants significantly impacts the surface water withdrawn Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table A 4 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD University of Alabama Employment YEAR Water Source 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Ground 33 20 44 12 46 44 47 45 48 24 49 20 50 34 Surface 8 788 97 9 512 77 7 425 10 7 517 21 7 612 40 7 536 90 7 400 09 Total 8 822 17 9 556 89 7 471 54 7 564 66 7 660 64 7 586 10 7 450 42 Chart A 3 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 University of Alabama Employment Chart A 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawal in MGD 2010 2040 University of Alabama Employment 10 000 00 Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper 1 000 00 1 00 2010 2015 2025 2035 7 400 09 50 34 7 536 90 2030 49 20 48 24 7 612 40 7 517 21 7 425 10 2020 47 45 10 00 46 44 100 00 9 512 77 Wholesale 44 12 Other Manufacturing 8 788 97 Petrochemical 33 20 36 2040 Surface Ground 37
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Suppli...
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart A 3 3 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 University of Alabama Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Table A 4 and Chart A 4 provide a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the water source based on the University of Alabama Study using Employment data The forecast indicates that approximately 99 percent of water withdrawn is surface water Ground water is projected to increase by 52 percent during the 31 year period whereas surface water is expected to decrease by 16 percent Thermo electric is the largest user of surface water and the closing of the two TVA plants significantly impacts the surface water withdrawn Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table A 4 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD University of Alabama Employment YEAR Water Source 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Ground 33 20 44 12 46 44 47 45 48 24 49 20 50 34 Surface 8 788 97 9 512 77 7 425 10 7 517 21 7 612 40 7 536 90 7 400 09 Total 8 822 17 9 556 89 7 471 54 7 564 66 7 660 64 7 586 10 7 450 42 Chart A 3 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 University of Alabama Employment Chart A 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawal in MGD 2010 2040 University of Alabama Employment 10 000 00 Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper 1 000 00 1 00 2010 2015 2025 2035 7 400 09 50 34 7 536 90 2030 49 20 48 24 7 612 40 7 517 21 7 425 10 2020 47 45 10 00 46 44 100 00 9 512 77 Wholesale 44 12 Other Manufacturing 8 788 97 Petrochemical 33 20 36 2040 Surface Ground 37
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Suppli...
38 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 39 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table A 5 Water Withdrawal in MGD by County University of Alabama Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 COUNTY Surface Ground AUTAUGA County Level Analysis The county level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each county during the 31year period Table A 5 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each county in the State of Alabama based on the University of Alabama Study using Employment data The results indicate that two counties Colbert and Jackson experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each county However some counties experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g Shelby with an increase of 41 percent The counties with the largest water withdrawals are Limestone Walker Mobile and Shelby with each county having water withdrawals in excess of 900 million gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these four counties accounts for 82 percent of all water withdrawn HUC Level Analysis The HUC level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each HUC during the 31 year period Table A 6 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each HUC in the State of Alabama based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data The results indicate that two HUCs 06030001 and 06030005 experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each HUC However some HUCs experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g 03150107 with an increase of 41 percent The HUCs with the largest water withdrawals are 03150107 03160109 03160204 and 06030002 with each HUC having water withdrawals in excess of 930 million gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these four HUCs accounts for 84 percent of all water withdrawn 32 42 9 84 Total Surface Ground 42 26 33 87 10 27 Total Surface Ground 44 14 35 10 10 64 Total Surface Ground 45 74 35 29 10 69 Total Surface Ground 45 98 35 26 10 67 Total Surface Ground 45 93 35 28 10 69 Total Surface Ground 45 97 35 41 10 74 Total 46 15 BALDWIN BARBOUR 1 58 1 58 1 47 1 47 1 53 1 53 1 54 1 54 1 55 1 55 1 56 1 56 1 57 1 57 BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK BUTLER 0 30 0 30 0 36 0 36 0 39 0 39 0 40 0 40 0 41 0 41 0 42 0 42 0 43 0 43 CALHOUN 0 97 0 97 0 99 0 99 1 04 1 04 1 06 1 06 1 07 1 07 1 08 1 08 1 10 1 10 CHAMBERS CHEROKEE 0 35 0 35 0 40 0 40 0 42 0 42 0 43 0 43 0 43 0 43 0 44 0 44 0 45 0 45 CHOCTAW 40 80 40 80 41 68 41 68 42 93 42 93 42 88 42 88 42 58 42 58 42 44 42 44 42 38 42 38 CLARKE 23 73 CHILTON 20 21 20 21 20 27 20 27 21 46 21 46 22 03 22 03 22 52 22 52 23 08 23 08 23 73 CLAY CLEBURNE 1 13 1 13 2 35 2 35 COFFEE COLBERT 1 331 41 0 31 1 331 72 1 434 10 0 36 1 434 46 2 50 2 50 2 59 2 59 2 66 2 66 2 75 2 75 2 85 2 85 84 02 0 37 84 39 84 11 0 37 84 48 83 67 0 37 84 04 83 49 0 37 83 86 83 44 0 37 83 81 CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON 1 74 1 74 1 86 1 86 1 97 1 97 2 00 2 00 2 03 2 03 2 01 2 01 1 97 1 97 CRENSHAW CULLMAN 1 83 0 43 2 26 2 97 0 47 3 44 3 10 0 49 3 59 3 14 0 49 3 64 3 18 0 50 3 68 3 24 0 51 3 75 3 31 0 52 3 84 DALE DALLAS 32 20 0 14 32 34 33 15 0 14 33 29 34 53 0 15 34 68 34 98 0 15 35 13 35 30 0 15 35 45 35 82 0 15 35 97 36 47 0 15 36 62 DEKALB ELMORE 35 08 37 98 39 63 39 95 1 74 41 69 40 74 42 51 41 29 43 09 41 94 43 76 42 75 ESCAMBIA 33 61 1 47 1 65 1 77 1 79 1 82 1 86 44 60 ETOWAH 123 78 123 78 124 88 124 88 131 38 131 38 132 64 132 64 134 52 134 52 133 36 133 36 131 17 131 17 FAYETTE 1 10 1 10 1 02 1 02 1 04 1 04 1 03 1 03 1 01 1 01 1 00 1 00 0 98 0 98 FRANKLIN GENEVA GREENE 354 43 379 98 0 03 380 01 402 20 0 03 402 24 408 20 0 04 408 24 414 60 0 04 414 63 410 39 0 04 410 42 402 56 0 04 402 60 HALE 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 HENRY 0 54 0 54 0 55 0 55 0 58 0 58 0 60 0 60 0 61 0 61 0 63 0 63 0 64 0 64 89 20 0 17 89 37 95 63 0 32 95 95 101 22 0 34 101 56 102 73 0 35 103 07 104 34 0 35 104 69 103 28 0 35 103 63 101 31 0 34 101 65 HOUSTON 0 03 354 46 1 129 85 9 68 9 68 9 78 9 78 9 85 9 85 9 96 9 96 10 11 10 11 JEFFERSON 0 50 0 50 0 03 0 52 0 54 0 03 0 54 0 57 0 03 0 54 0 57 0 03 0 54 0 57 0 03 0 55 0 58 0 03 0 55 0 58 LAMAR 0 11 0 11 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 14 0 14 0 14 0 14 0 14 0 14 LAUDERDALE 60 09 60 09 63 64 63 64 66 59 66 59 67 64 67 64 67 93 67 93 68 57 68 57 69 55 69 55 JACKSON 1 054 12 LAWRENCE LEE LIMESTONE 2 725 63 1 054 12 1 129 85 2 725 63 2 922 09 2 922 09 3 093 00 3 093 00 3 139 14 3 139 14 3 188 32 3 188 32 3 155 94 3 155 94 3 095 75 3 095 75 LOWNDES 4 29 4 29 4 50 4 50 4 59 4 59 4 66 4 66 4 75 4 75 4 83 4 83 MACON MADISON MARENGO 17 78 17 78 17 23 17 23 17 91 17 91 18 05 18 05 18 11 18 11 18 20 18 20 18 33 18 33 MARION MARSHALL 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 1 017 98 10 75 1 028 74 MOBILE 991 17 MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN 7 03 998 20 1 020 10 8 69 1 028 79 1 056 58 982 07 11 27 993 34 0 36 43 97 45 64 0 38 46 02 46 28 0 39 46 67 46 69 0 39 47 08 47 36 0 40 47 76 47 96 0 40 48 36 0 16 2 40 2 56 0 17 2 56 2 72 0 17 2 64 2 81 0 18 2 72 2 89 0 18 2 81 2 99 0 19 2 91 3 10 87 43 0 00 87 44 90 70 0 00 90 70 91 21 0 00 91 22 91 31 0 00 91 31 91 59 0 00 91 60 92 07 0 00 92 08 46 31 0 39 46 70 43 61 81 43 0 00 81 44 9 40 1 065 98 1 050 23 9 87 1 060 10 1 046 43 10 29 1 056 72 PERRY PICKENS 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 PIKE RANDOLPH 27 64 0 92 28 56 32 24 33 31 33 28 1 11 34 39 33 43 1 11 34 54 33 48 34 60 33 76 34 88 34 16 RUSSELL 1 07 1 12 1 12 1 14 35 30 SHELBY 665 45 665 45 855 49 855 49 913 28 913 28 933 95 933 95 953 34 953 34 952 17 952 17 939 12 939 12 STCLAIR 4 46 4 46 5 35 5 35 5 62 5 62 5 72 5 72 5 79 5 79 5 88 5 88 5 98 5 98 SUMTER 2 03 2 03 1 93 1 93 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 97 1 97 1 97 1 97 1 96 1 96 24 67 24 67 27 45 27 45 29 09 29 09 29 93 29 93 30 63 30 63 31 42 31 42 32 28 32 28 TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA 2 12 0 74 2 86 2 19 0 76 2 95 2 32 0 81 3 14 2 40 0 85 3 25 2 47 0 88 3 35 2 55 0 92 3 47 2 64 0 96 3 60 922 82 922 82 989 34 989 34 1 047 20 1 062 82 1 079 47 1 079 47 1 068 51 1 068 51 1 048 13 WASHINGTON 80 39 6 15 86 55 86 04 6 41 92 45 90 99 6 67 97 66 92 32 6 75 99 07 93 72 6 79 100 51 92 88 6 86 99 74 91 28 6 95 98 24 WILCOX 20 13 20 13 21 24 21 24 22 12 22 12 22 32 22 32 22 40 22 40 22 64 22 64 22 98 22 98 WALKER WINSTON TOTAL 8 788 97 33 20 8 822 17 9 512 77 44 12 9 556 89 7 425 10 1 047 20 1 062 82 46 44 7 471 54 7 517 21 47 45 7 564 66 7 612 40 48 24 7 660 64 7 536 90 49 20 7 586 10 1 048 13 7 400 09 50 34 7 450 42
38  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  39  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Sel...
38 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 39 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table A 5 Water Withdrawal in MGD by County University of Alabama Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 COUNTY Surface Ground AUTAUGA County Level Analysis The county level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each county during the 31year period Table A 5 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each county in the State of Alabama based on the University of Alabama Study using Employment data The results indicate that two counties Colbert and Jackson experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each county However some counties experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g Shelby with an increase of 41 percent The counties with the largest water withdrawals are Limestone Walker Mobile and Shelby with each county having water withdrawals in excess of 900 million gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these four counties accounts for 82 percent of all water withdrawn HUC Level Analysis The HUC level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each HUC during the 31 year period Table A 6 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each HUC in the State of Alabama based on the University of Alabama Study using employment data The results indicate that two HUCs 06030001 and 06030005 experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each HUC However some HUCs experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g 03150107 with an increase of 41 percent The HUCs with the largest water withdrawals are 03150107 03160109 03160204 and 06030002 with each HUC having water withdrawals in excess of 930 million gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these four HUCs accounts for 84 percent of all water withdrawn 32 42 9 84 Total Surface Ground 42 26 33 87 10 27 Total Surface Ground 44 14 35 10 10 64 Total Surface Ground 45 74 35 29 10 69 Total Surface Ground 45 98 35 26 10 67 Total Surface Ground 45 93 35 28 10 69 Total Surface Ground 45 97 35 41 10 74 Total 46 15 BALDWIN BARBOUR 1 58 1 58 1 47 1 47 1 53 1 53 1 54 1 54 1 55 1 55 1 56 1 56 1 57 1 57 BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK BUTLER 0 30 0 30 0 36 0 36 0 39 0 39 0 40 0 40 0 41 0 41 0 42 0 42 0 43 0 43 CALHOUN 0 97 0 97 0 99 0 99 1 04 1 04 1 06 1 06 1 07 1 07 1 08 1 08 1 10 1 10 CHAMBERS CHEROKEE 0 35 0 35 0 40 0 40 0 42 0 42 0 43 0 43 0 43 0 43 0 44 0 44 0 45 0 45 CHOCTAW 40 80 40 80 41 68 41 68 42 93 42 93 42 88 42 88 42 58 42 58 42 44 42 44 42 38 42 38 CLARKE 23 73 CHILTON 20 21 20 21 20 27 20 27 21 46 21 46 22 03 22 03 22 52 22 52 23 08 23 08 23 73 CLAY CLEBURNE 1 13 1 13 2 35 2 35 COFFEE COLBERT 1 331 41 0 31 1 331 72 1 434 10 0 36 1 434 46 2 50 2 50 2 59 2 59 2 66 2 66 2 75 2 75 2 85 2 85 84 02 0 37 84 39 84 11 0 37 84 48 83 67 0 37 84 04 83 49 0 37 83 86 83 44 0 37 83 81 CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON 1 74 1 74 1 86 1 86 1 97 1 97 2 00 2 00 2 03 2 03 2 01 2 01 1 97 1 97 CRENSHAW CULLMAN 1 83 0 43 2 26 2 97 0 47 3 44 3 10 0 49 3 59 3 14 0 49 3 64 3 18 0 50 3 68 3 24 0 51 3 75 3 31 0 52 3 84 DALE DALLAS 32 20 0 14 32 34 33 15 0 14 33 29 34 53 0 15 34 68 34 98 0 15 35 13 35 30 0 15 35 45 35 82 0 15 35 97 36 47 0 15 36 62 DEKALB ELMORE 35 08 37 98 39 63 39 95 1 74 41 69 40 74 42 51 41 29 43 09 41 94 43 76 42 75 ESCAMBIA 33 61 1 47 1 65 1 77 1 79 1 82 1 86 44 60 ETOWAH 123 78 123 78 124 88 124 88 131 38 131 38 132 64 132 64 134 52 134 52 133 36 133 36 131 17 131 17 FAYETTE 1 10 1 10 1 02 1 02 1 04 1 04 1 03 1 03 1 01 1 01 1 00 1 00 0 98 0 98 FRANKLIN GENEVA GREENE 354 43 379 98 0 03 380 01 402 20 0 03 402 24 408 20 0 04 408 24 414 60 0 04 414 63 410 39 0 04 410 42 402 56 0 04 402 60 HALE 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 HENRY 0 54 0 54 0 55 0 55 0 58 0 58 0 60 0 60 0 61 0 61 0 63 0 63 0 64 0 64 89 20 0 17 89 37 95 63 0 32 95 95 101 22 0 34 101 56 102 73 0 35 103 07 104 34 0 35 104 69 103 28 0 35 103 63 101 31 0 34 101 65 HOUSTON 0 03 354 46 1 129 85 9 68 9 68 9 78 9 78 9 85 9 85 9 96 9 96 10 11 10 11 JEFFERSON 0 50 0 50 0 03 0 52 0 54 0 03 0 54 0 57 0 03 0 54 0 57 0 03 0 54 0 57 0 03 0 55 0 58 0 03 0 55 0 58 LAMAR 0 11 0 11 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 14 0 14 0 14 0 14 0 14 0 14 LAUDERDALE 60 09 60 09 63 64 63 64 66 59 66 59 67 64 67 64 67 93 67 93 68 57 68 57 69 55 69 55 JACKSON 1 054 12 LAWRENCE LEE LIMESTONE 2 725 63 1 054 12 1 129 85 2 725 63 2 922 09 2 922 09 3 093 00 3 093 00 3 139 14 3 139 14 3 188 32 3 188 32 3 155 94 3 155 94 3 095 75 3 095 75 LOWNDES 4 29 4 29 4 50 4 50 4 59 4 59 4 66 4 66 4 75 4 75 4 83 4 83 MACON MADISON MARENGO 17 78 17 78 17 23 17 23 17 91 17 91 18 05 18 05 18 11 18 11 18 20 18 20 18 33 18 33 MARION MARSHALL 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 1 017 98 10 75 1 028 74 MOBILE 991 17 MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN 7 03 998 20 1 020 10 8 69 1 028 79 1 056 58 982 07 11 27 993 34 0 36 43 97 45 64 0 38 46 02 46 28 0 39 46 67 46 69 0 39 47 08 47 36 0 40 47 76 47 96 0 40 48 36 0 16 2 40 2 56 0 17 2 56 2 72 0 17 2 64 2 81 0 18 2 72 2 89 0 18 2 81 2 99 0 19 2 91 3 10 87 43 0 00 87 44 90 70 0 00 90 70 91 21 0 00 91 22 91 31 0 00 91 31 91 59 0 00 91 60 92 07 0 00 92 08 46 31 0 39 46 70 43 61 81 43 0 00 81 44 9 40 1 065 98 1 050 23 9 87 1 060 10 1 046 43 10 29 1 056 72 PERRY PICKENS 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 PIKE RANDOLPH 27 64 0 92 28 56 32 24 33 31 33 28 1 11 34 39 33 43 1 11 34 54 33 48 34 60 33 76 34 88 34 16 RUSSELL 1 07 1 12 1 12 1 14 35 30 SHELBY 665 45 665 45 855 49 855 49 913 28 913 28 933 95 933 95 953 34 953 34 952 17 952 17 939 12 939 12 STCLAIR 4 46 4 46 5 35 5 35 5 62 5 62 5 72 5 72 5 79 5 79 5 88 5 88 5 98 5 98 SUMTER 2 03 2 03 1 93 1 93 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 99 1 97 1 97 1 97 1 97 1 96 1 96 24 67 24 67 27 45 27 45 29 09 29 09 29 93 29 93 30 63 30 63 31 42 31 42 32 28 32 28 TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA 2 12 0 74 2 86 2 19 0 76 2 95 2 32 0 81 3 14 2 40 0 85 3 25 2 47 0 88 3 35 2 55 0 92 3 47 2 64 0 96 3 60 922 82 922 82 989 34 989 34 1 047 20 1 062 82 1 079 47 1 079 47 1 068 51 1 068 51 1 048 13 WASHINGTON 80 39 6 15 86 55 86 04 6 41 92 45 90 99 6 67 97 66 92 32 6 75 99 07 93 72 6 79 100 51 92 88 6 86 99 74 91 28 6 95 98 24 WILCOX 20 13 20 13 21 24 21 24 22 12 22 12 22 32 22 32 22 40 22 40 22 64 22 64 22 98 22 98 WALKER WINSTON TOTAL 8 788 97 33 20 8 822 17 9 512 77 44 12 9 556 89 7 425 10 1 047 20 1 062 82 46 44 7 471 54 7 517 21 47 45 7 564 66 7 612 40 48 24 7 660 64 7 536 90 49 20 7 586 10 1 048 13 7 400 09 50 34 7 450 42
38  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  39  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Sel...
40 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table A 6 Water Withdrawal in MGD by HUC University of Alabama Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 HUC Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total 03130002 03130003 27 64 2 50 30 14 32 24 2 55 34 79 33 28 2 64 35 92 33 43 2 66 36 09 33 48 2 66 36 15 33 76 2 68 36 44 34 16 2 71 36 87 03130004 89 20 0 44 89 64 95 63 0 60 96 22 101 22 0 63 101 85 102 73 0 65 103 37 104 34 0 66 105 00 103 28 0 66 103 94 101 31 0 66 101 97 03130012 03140103 03140104 03140106 03140107 03140201 0 27 0 27 1 42 1 42 1 51 1 51 1 56 1 56 1 60 1 60 1 65 1 65 1 71 1 71 1 46 03140202 1 13 1 13 1 21 1 21 1 28 1 28 1 33 1 33 1 37 1 37 1 41 1 41 1 46 03140203 03140301 1 74 1 74 1 86 1 86 1 97 1 97 2 00 2 00 2 03 2 03 2 01 2 01 1 97 1 97 03140302 03140303 0 30 0 30 0 36 0 36 0 39 0 39 0 40 0 40 0 41 0 41 0 42 0 42 0 43 0 43 03140304 33 61 1 38 34 99 37 98 1 56 39 53 39 95 1 64 41 59 40 74 1 67 42 41 41 29 1 69 42 98 41 94 1 72 43 66 42 75 1 75 44 50 03140305 0 09 0 09 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 03150105 03150106 152 91 0 97 153 88 157 68 0 99 158 67 166 09 1 04 167 13 168 29 1 06 169 34 170 94 1 07 172 00 170 65 1 08 171 73 169 43 952 17 939 12 1 10 170 53 939 12 03150107 665 45 665 45 855 49 855 49 913 28 913 28 933 95 933 95 953 34 953 34 952 17 03150108 03150109 03150110 03150201 64 62 10 33 74 95 67 17 17 51 84 68 69 80 18 26 88 06 70 44 18 49 88 94 70 73 18 63 89 37 71 29 18 83 90 12 72 07 19 07 91 15 03150202 0 16 0 16 0 03 0 16 0 19 0 03 0 17 0 20 0 03 0 17 0 20 0 03 0 17 0 20 0 03 0 17 0 20 0 03 0 17 0 20 03150203 20 13 20 13 21 24 21 24 22 12 22 12 22 32 22 32 22 40 22 40 22 64 22 64 22 98 22 98 03150204 46 31 0 39 46 70 43 61 0 36 43 97 45 64 0 38 46 02 46 28 0 39 46 67 46 69 0 39 47 08 47 36 0 40 47 76 47 96 0 40 48 36 03160101 03160103 03160105 0 11 0 11 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 14 0 14 0 14 0 14 0 14 0 14 03160106 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 03160107 03160108 03160109 924 65 992 31 0 47 992 77 0 49 1 050 79 1 065 97 0 49 1 066 46 03160110 0 43 925 08 03160111 0 34 0 34 0 35 0 35 0 37 0 37 0 37 0 37 0 37 0 37 0 38 0 38 0 38 0 38 0 20 1 050 30 1 082 65 0 50 1 083 15 1 071 75 0 51 1 072 26 1 051 45 0 52 1 051 97 2 39 2 13 0 21 2 34 2 21 0 22 2 44 2 24 0 23 2 47 2 24 0 24 2 48 2 26 0 25 2 51 2 27 0 26 2 53 0 58 356 05 381 05 0 60 381 66 403 35 0 65 404 00 409 40 0 67 410 07 415 84 0 70 416 53 411 68 0 72 412 40 403 92 0 75 404 67 59 50 59 68 59 68 61 63 61 63 61 72 61 72 61 46 61 46 61 41 61 41 61 48 1 11 1 16 1 16 1 20 1 20 1 20 1 20 1 19 1 19 1 19 1 19 1 19 107 68 106 31 113 80 112 45 120 29 114 36 122 33 116 24 124 31 115 96 124 15 115 01 8 35 123 37 6 26 1 026 37 1 056 58 7 13 1 057 36 1 046 43 7 44 1 053 87 1 017 98 7 78 1 025 76 982 07 8 16 990 23 1 71 1 71 03160112 2 19 03160113 355 47 03160201 59 50 03160202 1 11 03160203 100 60 7 08 03160204 991 17 4 94 996 11 1 020 10 03160205 1 16 1 16 1 34 1 34 1 45 1 45 1 52 1 52 1 57 1 57 1 64 1 64 03170002 03170003 7 49 7 84 6 79 1 063 37 1 050 23 7 97 8 07 8 19 61 48 1 19 03170008 03170009 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 06030001 06020001 1 054 12 0 08 1 054 20 1 129 85 0 08 1 129 94 9 68 0 09 9 77 9 78 0 09 9 86 9 85 0 09 9 94 9 96 0 09 10 05 10 11 0 09 06030002 2 867 15 3 250 29 0 00 3 250 30 3 297 99 0 00 3 298 00 3 347 56 0 00 3 347 56 3 316 11 0 00 3 316 11 3 257 38 10 20 0 00 2 867 15 3 073 17 0 00 3 073 17 06030003 06030004 84 02 0 37 84 39 84 11 0 37 84 48 83 67 0 37 84 04 83 49 0 37 83 86 83 44 0 37 83 81 06030005 06030006 TOTAL 1 331 41 8 788 97 0 31 1 331 72 1 434 10 0 36 1 434 46 33 20 8 822 17 9 512 77 44 12 9 556 89 7 425 10 46 44 7 471 54 7 517 21 47 45 7 564 66 7 612 40 48 24 7 660 64 7 536 90 49 20 7 586 10 0 00 3 257 38 7 400 09 50 34 7 450 42 Appendix B Water Withdrawal Forecasts based on EMSI Employment Data 41
40  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
40 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table A 6 Water Withdrawal in MGD by HUC University of Alabama Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 HUC Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total 03130002 03130003 27 64 2 50 30 14 32 24 2 55 34 79 33 28 2 64 35 92 33 43 2 66 36 09 33 48 2 66 36 15 33 76 2 68 36 44 34 16 2 71 36 87 03130004 89 20 0 44 89 64 95 63 0 60 96 22 101 22 0 63 101 85 102 73 0 65 103 37 104 34 0 66 105 00 103 28 0 66 103 94 101 31 0 66 101 97 03130012 03140103 03140104 03140106 03140107 03140201 0 27 0 27 1 42 1 42 1 51 1 51 1 56 1 56 1 60 1 60 1 65 1 65 1 71 1 71 1 46 03140202 1 13 1 13 1 21 1 21 1 28 1 28 1 33 1 33 1 37 1 37 1 41 1 41 1 46 03140203 03140301 1 74 1 74 1 86 1 86 1 97 1 97 2 00 2 00 2 03 2 03 2 01 2 01 1 97 1 97 03140302 03140303 0 30 0 30 0 36 0 36 0 39 0 39 0 40 0 40 0 41 0 41 0 42 0 42 0 43 0 43 03140304 33 61 1 38 34 99 37 98 1 56 39 53 39 95 1 64 41 59 40 74 1 67 42 41 41 29 1 69 42 98 41 94 1 72 43 66 42 75 1 75 44 50 03140305 0 09 0 09 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10 03150105 03150106 152 91 0 97 153 88 157 68 0 99 158 67 166 09 1 04 167 13 168 29 1 06 169 34 170 94 1 07 172 00 170 65 1 08 171 73 169 43 952 17 939 12 1 10 170 53 939 12 03150107 665 45 665 45 855 49 855 49 913 28 913 28 933 95 933 95 953 34 953 34 952 17 03150108 03150109 03150110 03150201 64 62 10 33 74 95 67 17 17 51 84 68 69 80 18 26 88 06 70 44 18 49 88 94 70 73 18 63 89 37 71 29 18 83 90 12 72 07 19 07 91 15 03150202 0 16 0 16 0 03 0 16 0 19 0 03 0 17 0 20 0 03 0 17 0 20 0 03 0 17 0 20 0 03 0 17 0 20 0 03 0 17 0 20 03150203 20 13 20 13 21 24 21 24 22 12 22 12 22 32 22 32 22 40 22 40 22 64 22 64 22 98 22 98 03150204 46 31 0 39 46 70 43 61 0 36 43 97 45 64 0 38 46 02 46 28 0 39 46 67 46 69 0 39 47 08 47 36 0 40 47 76 47 96 0 40 48 36 03160101 03160103 03160105 0 11 0 11 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 14 0 14 0 14 0 14 0 14 0 14 03160106 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 03160107 03160108 03160109 924 65 992 31 0 47 992 77 0 49 1 050 79 1 065 97 0 49 1 066 46 03160110 0 43 925 08 03160111 0 34 0 34 0 35 0 35 0 37 0 37 0 37 0 37 0 37 0 37 0 38 0 38 0 38 0 38 0 20 1 050 30 1 082 65 0 50 1 083 15 1 071 75 0 51 1 072 26 1 051 45 0 52 1 051 97 2 39 2 13 0 21 2 34 2 21 0 22 2 44 2 24 0 23 2 47 2 24 0 24 2 48 2 26 0 25 2 51 2 27 0 26 2 53 0 58 356 05 381 05 0 60 381 66 403 35 0 65 404 00 409 40 0 67 410 07 415 84 0 70 416 53 411 68 0 72 412 40 403 92 0 75 404 67 59 50 59 68 59 68 61 63 61 63 61 72 61 72 61 46 61 46 61 41 61 41 61 48 1 11 1 16 1 16 1 20 1 20 1 20 1 20 1 19 1 19 1 19 1 19 1 19 107 68 106 31 113 80 112 45 120 29 114 36 122 33 116 24 124 31 115 96 124 15 115 01 8 35 123 37 6 26 1 026 37 1 056 58 7 13 1 057 36 1 046 43 7 44 1 053 87 1 017 98 7 78 1 025 76 982 07 8 16 990 23 1 71 1 71 03160112 2 19 03160113 355 47 03160201 59 50 03160202 1 11 03160203 100 60 7 08 03160204 991 17 4 94 996 11 1 020 10 03160205 1 16 1 16 1 34 1 34 1 45 1 45 1 52 1 52 1 57 1 57 1 64 1 64 03170002 03170003 7 49 7 84 6 79 1 063 37 1 050 23 7 97 8 07 8 19 61 48 1 19 03170008 03170009 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 06030001 06020001 1 054 12 0 08 1 054 20 1 129 85 0 08 1 129 94 9 68 0 09 9 77 9 78 0 09 9 86 9 85 0 09 9 94 9 96 0 09 10 05 10 11 0 09 06030002 2 867 15 3 250 29 0 00 3 250 30 3 297 99 0 00 3 298 00 3 347 56 0 00 3 347 56 3 316 11 0 00 3 316 11 3 257 38 10 20 0 00 2 867 15 3 073 17 0 00 3 073 17 06030003 06030004 84 02 0 37 84 39 84 11 0 37 84 48 83 67 0 37 84 04 83 49 0 37 83 86 83 44 0 37 83 81 06030005 06030006 TOTAL 1 331 41 8 788 97 0 31 1 331 72 1 434 10 0 36 1 434 46 33 20 8 822 17 9 512 77 44 12 9 556 89 7 425 10 46 44 7 471 54 7 517 21 47 45 7 564 66 7 612 40 48 24 7 660 64 7 536 90 49 20 7 586 10 0 00 3 257 38 7 400 09 50 34 7 450 42 Appendix B Water Withdrawal Forecasts based on EMSI Employment Data 41
40  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
42 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 43 State Level Analysis Chart B 1 1 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 EMSI Employment Ground Water Withdrawals Table B 1 provides a breakdown of ground water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the EMSI employment data The forecasts indicate that Mining and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in ground water withdrawal with increases of 585 percent and 103 percent respectively Thermoelectric Pulp and Paper and Petrochemical will experience modest increases of 7 percent 38 percent and 17 percent respectively Wholesale does not experience a change Total ground water withdrawals are forecast to increase by 54 percent Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table B 1 Ground Water Withdrawal Data in MGD EMSI Employment YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mining 0 24 0 63 0 81 0 91 Thermo electric 0 20 0 19 0 20 0 20 Pulp and Paper 11 78 14 31 14 76 14 97 Petrochemical 10 96 15 46 14 13 14 16 Other Manufacturing 10 01 15 09 15 45 16 37 Wholesale 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 Total 33 20 45 69 45 37 46 62 2030 1 10 0 20 15 36 13 65 17 39 0 02 47 72 2035 1 34 0 21 15 79 13 22 18 69 0 02 49 26 2040 1 63 0 21 16 25 12 87 20 29 0 02 51 26 Chart B 1 2 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale The following charts Chart B 1 1 Chart B 1 4 provide the breakdown of ground water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the EMSI employment data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that the during the 31 year period the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Petrochemical and Pulp and Paper industrial users declines while the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is partially consistent with the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
42  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
42 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 43 State Level Analysis Chart B 1 1 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 EMSI Employment Ground Water Withdrawals Table B 1 provides a breakdown of ground water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the EMSI employment data The forecasts indicate that Mining and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in ground water withdrawal with increases of 585 percent and 103 percent respectively Thermoelectric Pulp and Paper and Petrochemical will experience modest increases of 7 percent 38 percent and 17 percent respectively Wholesale does not experience a change Total ground water withdrawals are forecast to increase by 54 percent Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table B 1 Ground Water Withdrawal Data in MGD EMSI Employment YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mining 0 24 0 63 0 81 0 91 Thermo electric 0 20 0 19 0 20 0 20 Pulp and Paper 11 78 14 31 14 76 14 97 Petrochemical 10 96 15 46 14 13 14 16 Other Manufacturing 10 01 15 09 15 45 16 37 Wholesale 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 Total 33 20 45 69 45 37 46 62 2030 1 10 0 20 15 36 13 65 17 39 0 02 47 72 2035 1 34 0 21 15 79 13 22 18 69 0 02 49 26 2040 1 63 0 21 16 25 12 87 20 29 0 02 51 26 Chart B 1 2 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale The following charts Chart B 1 1 Chart B 1 4 provide the breakdown of ground water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the EMSI employment data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that the during the 31 year period the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Petrochemical and Pulp and Paper industrial users declines while the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is partially consistent with the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
42  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
44 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart B 1 3 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Surface Water Withdrawals Table B 2 provides a breakdown of surface water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the EMSI employment data The forecasts indicate that Thermo electric Pulp and Paper and Petrochemical will experience significant decreases in surface water withdrawal with decreases of 30 percent 28 percent and 18 percent respectively Mining will experience a 15 percent increase and Other Manufacturing and Wholesale will experience a 109 percent increase Total surface water withdrawals are forecast to decrease by 30 percent Wholesale Table B 2 Surface Water Withdrawal Data in MGD EMSI Employment Chart B 1 4 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mining 3 30 3 03 3 23 3 30 3 45 3 62 Thermo electric 8 251 64 8 158 41 5 623 71 5 638 74 5 646 84 5 682 42 Pulp and Paper 369 99 319 55 294 24 277 66 270 26 267 45 Petrochemical 140 28 148 86 133 75 128 79 122 42 117 80 Other Manufacturing 23 77 33 07 34 31 37 96 41 19 45 04 Wholesale 0 03 0 03 0 03 0 03 0 03 Total 8 788 97 8 662 95 6 089 28 6 086 49 6 084 19 6 116 35 2040 3 80 5 746 45 268 01 114 54 49 61 0 03 6 182 44 45
44  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
44 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart B 1 3 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Surface Water Withdrawals Table B 2 provides a breakdown of surface water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the EMSI employment data The forecasts indicate that Thermo electric Pulp and Paper and Petrochemical will experience significant decreases in surface water withdrawal with decreases of 30 percent 28 percent and 18 percent respectively Mining will experience a 15 percent increase and Other Manufacturing and Wholesale will experience a 109 percent increase Total surface water withdrawals are forecast to decrease by 30 percent Wholesale Table B 2 Surface Water Withdrawal Data in MGD EMSI Employment Chart B 1 4 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mining 3 30 3 03 3 23 3 30 3 45 3 62 Thermo electric 8 251 64 8 158 41 5 623 71 5 638 74 5 646 84 5 682 42 Pulp and Paper 369 99 319 55 294 24 277 66 270 26 267 45 Petrochemical 140 28 148 86 133 75 128 79 122 42 117 80 Other Manufacturing 23 77 33 07 34 31 37 96 41 19 45 04 Wholesale 0 03 0 03 0 03 0 03 0 03 Total 8 788 97 8 662 95 6 089 28 6 086 49 6 084 19 6 116 35 2040 3 80 5 746 45 268 01 114 54 49 61 0 03 6 182 44 45
44  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
46 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 The following charts Chart B 2 1 Chart B 2 4 provide the breakdown of surface water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the EMSI employment data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Pulp and Paper industrial users increases This is consistent with closing of two TVA thermo electric plants and the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart B 2 1 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart B 2 2 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart B 2 3 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart B 2 4 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 47
46  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  The following charts, Chart B-2.1     Cha...
46 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 The following charts Chart B 2 1 Chart B 2 4 provide the breakdown of surface water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the EMSI employment data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Pulp and Paper industrial users increases This is consistent with closing of two TVA thermo electric plants and the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart B 2 1 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart B 2 2 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart B 2 3 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart B 2 4 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 47
46  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  The following charts, Chart B-2.1     Cha...
48 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart B 3 1 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 EMSI Employment Total Water Withdrawals Table B 3 provides a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the EMSI employment data The forecasts indicate that Mining Other Manufacturing and Wholesale will experience significant increases in total water withdrawal with increases of 53 percent 107 percent and 163 percent respectively Thermo electric Pulp and Paper and Petrochemical will experience decreases of 30 percent 26 percent and 16 percent respectively Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table B 3 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD EMSI Employment YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mining 3 53 3 67 4 05 4 21 4 56 4 96 Thermo electric 8 251 84 8 158 60 5 623 91 5 638 94 5 647 04 5 682 63 Pulp and Paper 381 77 333 86 309 00 292 63 285 62 283 23 Petrochemical 151 24 164 32 147 89 142 95 136 07 131 02 Other Manufacturing 33 78 48 16 49 76 54 33 58 58 63 73 Wholesale 0 02 0 04 0 05 0 05 0 05 0 05 Total 8 822 17 8 708 65 6 134 64 6 133 11 6 131 91 6 165 61 2040 5 42 5 746 66 284 26 127 41 69 91 0 05 6 233 70 Chart B 3 2 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 49 The following charts Chart B 3 1 Chart B 3 4 provide the breakdown of total water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the EMSI employment data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of total water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of total water withdrawn by Petrochemical Pulp and Paper and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the closing of two TVA thermo electric plants and the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
48  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
48 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart B 3 1 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 EMSI Employment Total Water Withdrawals Table B 3 provides a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the EMSI employment data The forecasts indicate that Mining Other Manufacturing and Wholesale will experience significant increases in total water withdrawal with increases of 53 percent 107 percent and 163 percent respectively Thermo electric Pulp and Paper and Petrochemical will experience decreases of 30 percent 26 percent and 16 percent respectively Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table B 3 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD EMSI Employment YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mining 3 53 3 67 4 05 4 21 4 56 4 96 Thermo electric 8 251 84 8 158 60 5 623 91 5 638 94 5 647 04 5 682 63 Pulp and Paper 381 77 333 86 309 00 292 63 285 62 283 23 Petrochemical 151 24 164 32 147 89 142 95 136 07 131 02 Other Manufacturing 33 78 48 16 49 76 54 33 58 58 63 73 Wholesale 0 02 0 04 0 05 0 05 0 05 0 05 Total 8 822 17 8 708 65 6 134 64 6 133 11 6 131 91 6 165 61 2040 5 42 5 746 66 284 26 127 41 69 91 0 05 6 233 70 Chart B 3 2 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 49 The following charts Chart B 3 1 Chart B 3 4 provide the breakdown of total water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the EMSI employment data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of total water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of total water withdrawn by Petrochemical Pulp and Paper and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the closing of two TVA thermo electric plants and the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
48  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart B 3 3 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Table B 4 and Chart B 4 provide a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the water source based on the EMSI Employment data The forecast indicates that approximately 99 percent of water withdrawn is surface water Ground water is projected to increase by 54 percent during the 31 year period whereas surface water is expected to decrease by 30 percent Thermo electric is the largest user of surface water and the closing of the two TVA plants significantly impacts the surface water withdrawn Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table B 4 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD EMSI Employment YEAR Water Source 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Ground 33 20 45 69 45 37 46 62 47 72 49 26 51 26 Surface 8 788 97 8 662 95 6 089 28 6 086 49 6 084 19 6 116 35 6 182 44 Total 8 822 17 8 708 65 6 134 64 6 133 11 6 131 91 6 165 61 6 233 70 Chart B 3 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 EMSI Employment Chart B 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawal in MGD 2010 2040 EMSI Employment 10 000 00 Mining 1 00 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 6 182 44 51 26 49 26 6 116 35 6 084 19 47 72 10 00 6 086 49 100 00 46 52 Wholesale 6 089 28 Other Manufacturing 45 37 Petrochemical 8 662 95 1 000 00 45 69 Pulp and Paper 8 788 97 Thermo electric 33 20 50 2040 Surface Ground 51
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Suppli...
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart B 3 3 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 EMSI Employment Mining Thermo electric Table B 4 and Chart B 4 provide a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the water source based on the EMSI Employment data The forecast indicates that approximately 99 percent of water withdrawn is surface water Ground water is projected to increase by 54 percent during the 31 year period whereas surface water is expected to decrease by 30 percent Thermo electric is the largest user of surface water and the closing of the two TVA plants significantly impacts the surface water withdrawn Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table B 4 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD EMSI Employment YEAR Water Source 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Ground 33 20 45 69 45 37 46 62 47 72 49 26 51 26 Surface 8 788 97 8 662 95 6 089 28 6 086 49 6 084 19 6 116 35 6 182 44 Total 8 822 17 8 708 65 6 134 64 6 133 11 6 131 91 6 165 61 6 233 70 Chart B 3 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 EMSI Employment Chart B 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawal in MGD 2010 2040 EMSI Employment 10 000 00 Mining 1 00 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 6 182 44 51 26 49 26 6 116 35 6 084 19 47 72 10 00 6 086 49 100 00 46 52 Wholesale 6 089 28 Other Manufacturing 45 37 Petrochemical 8 662 95 1 000 00 45 69 Pulp and Paper 8 788 97 Thermo electric 33 20 50 2040 Surface Ground 51
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Suppli...
52 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 53 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table B 5 Water Withdrawal in MGD by County EMSI Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 COUNTY Surface Ground AUTAUGA County Level Analysis HUC Level Analysis The county level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each county during the 31year period Table B 5 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each county in the State of Alabama based on the EMSI Employment data The results indicate that two counties Colbert and Jackson experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each county However some counties experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g Autauga Morgan and Shelby with increases of 46 percent 42 percent and 67 percent The counties with the largest water withdrawals are Limestone Walker Mobile and Shelby with each county having water withdrawals in excess of 450 million gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these four counties accounts for 87 percent of all water withdrawn The HUC level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each HUC during the 31 year period Table B 6 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each HUC in the State of Alabama based on the EMSI employment data The results indicate that two HUCs 06030001 and 06030005 experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each HUC However some HUCs experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g 03150107 and 03150201 with increases of 67 percent and 46 percent respectively The HUCs with the largest water withdrawals are 03150107 03160204 and 06030002 with each HUC having water withdrawals in excess of 740 million gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these three HUCs accounts for 81 percent of all water withdrawn 32 42 9 84 Total Surface Ground 42 26 40 26 12 30 Total Surface Ground 52 56 42 08 12 91 Total Surface Ground 54 99 42 86 13 19 Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground 56 05 57 91 59 85 44 25 13 66 45 70 14 15 47 21 14 65 Total 61 86 BALDWIN BARBOUR 1 58 1 58 1 41 1 41 1 43 1 43 1 46 1 46 1 40 1 40 1 35 1 35 1 31 1 31 BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK BUTLER 0 30 0 30 0 26 0 26 0 25 0 25 0 24 0 24 0 23 0 23 0 22 0 22 0 20 0 20 2 33 CALHOUN 0 97 0 97 1 81 1 81 1 88 1 88 1 98 1 98 2 09 2 09 2 20 2 20 2 33 CHAMBERS CHEROKEE 0 35 0 35 0 39 0 39 0 43 0 43 0 52 0 52 0 59 0 59 0 68 0 68 0 78 0 78 CHOCTAW 40 80 40 80 35 19 35 19 31 57 31 57 29 26 29 26 26 68 26 68 24 34 24 34 22 19 22 19 CLARKE 25 93 CHILTON 20 21 20 21 20 92 20 92 21 84 21 84 22 80 22 80 23 80 23 80 24 84 24 84 25 93 CLAY CLEBURNE 1 13 1 13 1 95 1 95 2 13 2 13 2 23 2 23 2 40 2 40 2 59 2 59 2 79 2 79 53 10 0 37 53 47 45 04 0 39 45 43 39 41 0 44 39 85 35 82 0 49 36 30 33 97 0 54 34 51 COFFEE COLBERT 1 331 41 0 31 1 331 72 1 326 16 0 32 1 326 48 CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON 1 74 1 74 1 82 1 82 2 30 2 30 2 49 2 49 2 92 2 92 3 43 3 43 4 02 4 02 CRENSHAW CULLMAN 1 83 0 43 2 26 2 90 0 59 3 49 3 12 0 72 3 84 3 51 0 90 4 41 3 93 1 11 5 04 4 44 1 37 5 82 5 08 1 69 6 78 DALE DALLAS 32 20 0 14 32 34 32 51 0 14 32 65 34 72 0 15 34 87 35 08 0 15 35 23 36 44 0 15 36 60 37 86 0 16 38 02 39 33 0 17 39 49 DEKALB ELMORE 35 08 31 74 33 66 35 48 2 09 37 57 35 48 2 27 37 75 37 55 2 50 40 05 39 75 2 77 42 52 42 07 3 10 45 17 ESCAMBIA 33 61 1 47 1 92 ETOWAH 123 78 123 78 116 20 116 20 97 29 97 29 93 33 93 33 83 77 83 77 75 24 75 24 67 61 67 61 FAYETTE 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 FRANKLIN GENEVA GREENE 354 43 29 05 0 00 29 05 43 58 0 00 43 58 52 29 0 00 52 30 70 63 0 01 70 64 95 40 0 01 95 41 128 86 0 01 128 87 HALE 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 HENRY 0 54 0 54 0 41 0 41 0 16 0 16 0 08 0 08 0 04 0 04 0 02 0 02 0 01 0 01 89 20 0 17 89 37 97 36 0 18 97 55 101 69 0 19 101 88 101 05 0 19 101 24 102 95 0 19 103 15 104 89 0 20 105 09 106 87 0 20 107 07 HOUSTON 0 03 354 46 1 198 41 11 13 11 13 11 94 11 94 13 74 13 74 15 82 15 82 18 21 18 21 JEFFERSON 0 50 0 50 0 03 0 48 0 51 0 03 0 46 0 49 0 03 0 49 0 52 0 03 0 49 0 52 0 03 0 49 0 52 0 03 0 50 0 53 LAMAR 0 11 0 11 0 11 0 11 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 07 0 07 LAUDERDALE 60 09 60 09 24 89 24 89 13 71 13 71 4 85 4 85 2 15 2 15 0 96 0 96 0 42 0 42 JACKSON 1 054 12 LAWRENCE LEE LIMESTONE 2 725 63 1 054 12 1 198 41 2 725 63 2 748 44 2 748 44 2 816 31 2 816 31 2 869 68 2 869 68 2 932 29 2 932 29 2 996 27 2 996 27 3 061 64 3 061 64 LOWNDES 4 37 4 37 4 04 4 04 3 99 3 99 3 81 3 81 3 64 3 64 3 48 MACON 3 48 MADISON MARENGO 17 78 17 78 18 77 18 77 15 97 15 97 15 07 15 07 13 50 13 50 12 10 12 10 10 85 MARION MARSHALL 0 08 0 08 0 07 0 07 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 807 98 10 39 MOBILE MONTGOMERY MORGAN 7 03 998 20 934 12 9 19 943 30 855 16 9 30 864 47 847 75 9 87 857 62 818 37 770 18 11 04 781 22 734 27 11 84 746 11 46 31 0 39 46 70 39 69 0 44 40 13 35 34 0 40 35 74 33 80 0 47 34 27 31 21 0 48 31 69 28 81 0 50 29 30 26 59 0 51 27 10 0 19 2 47 2 66 0 17 2 67 2 84 0 17 2 81 2 97 0 15 3 01 3 16 0 14 3 24 3 38 0 14 3 50 3 64 81 43 0 00 81 44 99 09 0 00 99 09 99 37 0 00 99 37 104 97 0 00 104 98 108 30 0 00 108 31 111 94 0 00 111 94 115 93 0 00 115 93 991 17 MONROE 10 85 PERRY PICKENS 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 PERRY RANDOLPH 27 64 0 92 28 56 17 97 0 60 18 57 13 99 0 47 14 46 11 17 0 37 11 54 8 81 0 29 9 10 6 94 0 23 7 18 5 48 0 18 5 66 RUSSELL SHELBY 665 45 665 45 777 21 777 21 860 44 860 44 897 17 897 17 964 04 964 04 1 035 89 1 035 89 1 113 10 1 113 10 STCLAIR 4 46 4 46 5 98 5 98 6 33 6 33 7 37 7 37 8 19 8 19 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 11 SUMTER 2 03 2 03 1 75 1 75 1 77 1 77 1 77 1 77 1 78 1 78 1 79 1 79 1 80 1 80 24 67 24 67 19 76 19 76 11 57 11 57 8 53 8 53 5 61 5 61 3 69 3 69 2 43 2 43 TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA 2 12 0 74 2 86 2 06 0 71 2 77 2 07 0 61 2 68 2 11 0 58 2 69 2 16 0 53 2 69 2 23 0 48 2 71 2 31 0 44 2 75 922 82 922 82 934 74 934 74 779 75 779 75 710 59 710 59 619 78 619 78 540 57 540 57 471 48 WASHINGTON 80 39 6 15 86 55 79 90 5 53 85 43 77 38 4 52 81 89 74 74 4 23 78 97 72 34 3 71 76 04 70 04 3 24 73 29 67 85 2 84 70 69 WILCOX 20 13 20 13 24 74 24 74 20 91 20 91 20 52 20 52 18 71 18 71 17 05 17 05 15 54 15 54 WALKER WINSTON TOTAL 8 788 97 33 20 8 822 17 8 662 95 45 69 8 708 65 6 089 28 45 37 6 134 64 6 086 49 46 62 6 133 11 6 084 19 47 72 6 131 91 6 116 35 49 26 6 165 61 6 182 44 471 48 51 26 6 233 70
52  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  53  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Sel...
52 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 53 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table B 5 Water Withdrawal in MGD by County EMSI Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 COUNTY Surface Ground AUTAUGA County Level Analysis HUC Level Analysis The county level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each county during the 31year period Table B 5 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each county in the State of Alabama based on the EMSI Employment data The results indicate that two counties Colbert and Jackson experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each county However some counties experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g Autauga Morgan and Shelby with increases of 46 percent 42 percent and 67 percent The counties with the largest water withdrawals are Limestone Walker Mobile and Shelby with each county having water withdrawals in excess of 450 million gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these four counties accounts for 87 percent of all water withdrawn The HUC level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each HUC during the 31 year period Table B 6 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each HUC in the State of Alabama based on the EMSI employment data The results indicate that two HUCs 06030001 and 06030005 experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each HUC However some HUCs experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g 03150107 and 03150201 with increases of 67 percent and 46 percent respectively The HUCs with the largest water withdrawals are 03150107 03160204 and 06030002 with each HUC having water withdrawals in excess of 740 million gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these three HUCs accounts for 81 percent of all water withdrawn 32 42 9 84 Total Surface Ground 42 26 40 26 12 30 Total Surface Ground 52 56 42 08 12 91 Total Surface Ground 54 99 42 86 13 19 Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground 56 05 57 91 59 85 44 25 13 66 45 70 14 15 47 21 14 65 Total 61 86 BALDWIN BARBOUR 1 58 1 58 1 41 1 41 1 43 1 43 1 46 1 46 1 40 1 40 1 35 1 35 1 31 1 31 BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK BUTLER 0 30 0 30 0 26 0 26 0 25 0 25 0 24 0 24 0 23 0 23 0 22 0 22 0 20 0 20 2 33 CALHOUN 0 97 0 97 1 81 1 81 1 88 1 88 1 98 1 98 2 09 2 09 2 20 2 20 2 33 CHAMBERS CHEROKEE 0 35 0 35 0 39 0 39 0 43 0 43 0 52 0 52 0 59 0 59 0 68 0 68 0 78 0 78 CHOCTAW 40 80 40 80 35 19 35 19 31 57 31 57 29 26 29 26 26 68 26 68 24 34 24 34 22 19 22 19 CLARKE 25 93 CHILTON 20 21 20 21 20 92 20 92 21 84 21 84 22 80 22 80 23 80 23 80 24 84 24 84 25 93 CLAY CLEBURNE 1 13 1 13 1 95 1 95 2 13 2 13 2 23 2 23 2 40 2 40 2 59 2 59 2 79 2 79 53 10 0 37 53 47 45 04 0 39 45 43 39 41 0 44 39 85 35 82 0 49 36 30 33 97 0 54 34 51 COFFEE COLBERT 1 331 41 0 31 1 331 72 1 326 16 0 32 1 326 48 CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON 1 74 1 74 1 82 1 82 2 30 2 30 2 49 2 49 2 92 2 92 3 43 3 43 4 02 4 02 CRENSHAW CULLMAN 1 83 0 43 2 26 2 90 0 59 3 49 3 12 0 72 3 84 3 51 0 90 4 41 3 93 1 11 5 04 4 44 1 37 5 82 5 08 1 69 6 78 DALE DALLAS 32 20 0 14 32 34 32 51 0 14 32 65 34 72 0 15 34 87 35 08 0 15 35 23 36 44 0 15 36 60 37 86 0 16 38 02 39 33 0 17 39 49 DEKALB ELMORE 35 08 31 74 33 66 35 48 2 09 37 57 35 48 2 27 37 75 37 55 2 50 40 05 39 75 2 77 42 52 42 07 3 10 45 17 ESCAMBIA 33 61 1 47 1 92 ETOWAH 123 78 123 78 116 20 116 20 97 29 97 29 93 33 93 33 83 77 83 77 75 24 75 24 67 61 67 61 FAYETTE 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 FRANKLIN GENEVA GREENE 354 43 29 05 0 00 29 05 43 58 0 00 43 58 52 29 0 00 52 30 70 63 0 01 70 64 95 40 0 01 95 41 128 86 0 01 128 87 HALE 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 HENRY 0 54 0 54 0 41 0 41 0 16 0 16 0 08 0 08 0 04 0 04 0 02 0 02 0 01 0 01 89 20 0 17 89 37 97 36 0 18 97 55 101 69 0 19 101 88 101 05 0 19 101 24 102 95 0 19 103 15 104 89 0 20 105 09 106 87 0 20 107 07 HOUSTON 0 03 354 46 1 198 41 11 13 11 13 11 94 11 94 13 74 13 74 15 82 15 82 18 21 18 21 JEFFERSON 0 50 0 50 0 03 0 48 0 51 0 03 0 46 0 49 0 03 0 49 0 52 0 03 0 49 0 52 0 03 0 49 0 52 0 03 0 50 0 53 LAMAR 0 11 0 11 0 11 0 11 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 07 0 07 LAUDERDALE 60 09 60 09 24 89 24 89 13 71 13 71 4 85 4 85 2 15 2 15 0 96 0 96 0 42 0 42 JACKSON 1 054 12 LAWRENCE LEE LIMESTONE 2 725 63 1 054 12 1 198 41 2 725 63 2 748 44 2 748 44 2 816 31 2 816 31 2 869 68 2 869 68 2 932 29 2 932 29 2 996 27 2 996 27 3 061 64 3 061 64 LOWNDES 4 37 4 37 4 04 4 04 3 99 3 99 3 81 3 81 3 64 3 64 3 48 MACON 3 48 MADISON MARENGO 17 78 17 78 18 77 18 77 15 97 15 97 15 07 15 07 13 50 13 50 12 10 12 10 10 85 MARION MARSHALL 0 08 0 08 0 07 0 07 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 807 98 10 39 MOBILE MONTGOMERY MORGAN 7 03 998 20 934 12 9 19 943 30 855 16 9 30 864 47 847 75 9 87 857 62 818 37 770 18 11 04 781 22 734 27 11 84 746 11 46 31 0 39 46 70 39 69 0 44 40 13 35 34 0 40 35 74 33 80 0 47 34 27 31 21 0 48 31 69 28 81 0 50 29 30 26 59 0 51 27 10 0 19 2 47 2 66 0 17 2 67 2 84 0 17 2 81 2 97 0 15 3 01 3 16 0 14 3 24 3 38 0 14 3 50 3 64 81 43 0 00 81 44 99 09 0 00 99 09 99 37 0 00 99 37 104 97 0 00 104 98 108 30 0 00 108 31 111 94 0 00 111 94 115 93 0 00 115 93 991 17 MONROE 10 85 PERRY PICKENS 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 PERRY RANDOLPH 27 64 0 92 28 56 17 97 0 60 18 57 13 99 0 47 14 46 11 17 0 37 11 54 8 81 0 29 9 10 6 94 0 23 7 18 5 48 0 18 5 66 RUSSELL SHELBY 665 45 665 45 777 21 777 21 860 44 860 44 897 17 897 17 964 04 964 04 1 035 89 1 035 89 1 113 10 1 113 10 STCLAIR 4 46 4 46 5 98 5 98 6 33 6 33 7 37 7 37 8 19 8 19 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 11 SUMTER 2 03 2 03 1 75 1 75 1 77 1 77 1 77 1 77 1 78 1 78 1 79 1 79 1 80 1 80 24 67 24 67 19 76 19 76 11 57 11 57 8 53 8 53 5 61 5 61 3 69 3 69 2 43 2 43 TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA 2 12 0 74 2 86 2 06 0 71 2 77 2 07 0 61 2 68 2 11 0 58 2 69 2 16 0 53 2 69 2 23 0 48 2 71 2 31 0 44 2 75 922 82 922 82 934 74 934 74 779 75 779 75 710 59 710 59 619 78 619 78 540 57 540 57 471 48 WASHINGTON 80 39 6 15 86 55 79 90 5 53 85 43 77 38 4 52 81 89 74 74 4 23 78 97 72 34 3 71 76 04 70 04 3 24 73 29 67 85 2 84 70 69 WILCOX 20 13 20 13 24 74 24 74 20 91 20 91 20 52 20 52 18 71 18 71 17 05 17 05 15 54 15 54 WALKER WINSTON TOTAL 8 788 97 33 20 8 822 17 8 662 95 45 69 8 708 65 6 089 28 45 37 6 134 64 6 086 49 46 62 6 133 11 6 084 19 47 72 6 131 91 6 116 35 49 26 6 165 61 6 182 44 471 48 51 26 6 233 70
52  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  53  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Sel...
54 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 TableB 6 Water Withdrawal in MGD by HUC EMSI Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 HUC 03130002 Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total 03130003 27 64 2 50 30 14 17 97 2 01 19 98 13 99 1 90 15 89 11 17 1 83 12 99 8 81 1 70 10 50 6 94 1 59 8 53 5 48 1 49 6 96 03130004 89 20 0 44 89 64 97 36 0 39 97 75 101 69 0 27 101 96 101 05 0 23 101 28 102 95 0 21 103 16 104 89 0 21 105 10 106 87 0 21 107 07 03130012 03140103 03140104 03140106 03140107 03140201 0 27 0 27 1 20 1 20 1 09 1 09 1 07 1 07 1 06 1 06 1 07 1 07 1 08 1 08 03140202 1 13 1 13 0 95 0 95 1 12 1 12 1 21 1 21 1 36 1 36 1 52 1 52 1 71 1 71 03140203 03140301 1 74 1 74 1 82 1 82 2 30 2 30 2 49 2 49 2 92 2 92 3 43 3 43 4 02 4 02 03140302 03140303 0 30 0 30 0 26 0 26 0 25 0 25 0 24 0 24 0 23 0 23 0 22 0 22 0 20 0 20 03140304 33 61 1 38 34 99 31 74 1 44 33 18 35 48 1 45 36 92 35 48 1 53 37 01 37 55 1 58 39 13 39 75 1 63 41 38 42 07 1 69 43 76 03140305 0 09 0 09 0 48 0 48 0 64 0 64 0 74 0 74 0 92 0 92 1 14 1 14 1 41 1 41 03150105 03150106 152 91 1 81 143 75 115 20 1 88 117 08 109 23 1 98 111 22 97 58 2 09 99 66 88 03 2 20 90 23 80 15 2 33 82 48 1 035 89 1 035 89 1 113 10 0 97 153 88 141 94 03150107 665 45 665 45 777 21 777 21 860 44 860 44 897 17 897 17 964 04 964 04 03150108 03150109 03150110 03150201 64 62 10 33 74 95 72 96 19 67 92 63 0 13 76 97 20 20 97 17 78 10 20 65 98 76 80 84 21 23 102 07 83 70 21 87 105 57 86 67 22 59 1 113 10 109 26 03150202 0 16 0 16 0 03 0 16 0 03 0 12 0 14 0 03 0 12 0 15 0 03 0 12 0 15 0 03 0 12 0 14 0 03 0 11 0 14 03150203 20 13 20 13 24 74 24 74 20 91 20 91 20 52 20 52 18 71 18 71 17 05 17 05 15 54 15 54 27 10 03150204 46 31 0 39 46 70 39 69 0 44 40 13 35 34 0 40 35 74 33 80 0 47 34 27 31 21 0 48 31 69 28 81 0 50 29 30 26 59 0 51 03160101 03160103 03160105 0 11 0 11 0 11 0 11 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 07 0 07 03160106 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 03160107 03160108 03160109 924 65 937 64 0 59 938 24 782 87 0 72 783 58 714 10 0 90 623 70 1 11 624 82 546 38 476 56 03160110 03160111 0 34 0 34 0 35 0 35 0 34 0 34 0 37 0 37 0 37 0 37 0 38 0 38 0 39 0 39 0 20 03160112 2 19 03160113 355 47 0 43 925 08 715 01 545 01 1 37 1 69 478 26 2 39 2 05 0 19 2 24 2 20 0 17 2 36 2 25 0 16 2 41 2 36 0 15 2 51 2 49 0 13 2 62 2 63 0 12 2 75 0 58 356 05 30 16 0 54 30 70 44 55 0 46 45 01 53 25 0 45 53 70 71 53 0 41 71 93 96 24 0 37 96 61 129 64 0 35 129 99 33 68 03160201 59 50 59 50 54 73 54 73 48 28 48 28 45 03 45 03 40 87 40 87 37 10 37 10 33 68 03160202 1 11 1 11 0 99 0 99 1 04 1 04 1 06 1 06 1 09 1 09 1 13 1 13 1 17 03160203 100 60 7 08 107 68 100 82 7 12 107 95 99 22 6 55 105 77 97 53 6 51 104 04 96 13 6 43 102 57 94 89 6 51 101 39 93 78 6 75 100 53 4 94 996 11 934 12 855 16 1 17 03160204 991 17 6 26 940 37 5 92 861 08 847 75 6 16 853 91 807 98 6 18 814 16 770 18 6 24 776 42 734 27 6 34 740 60 03160205 1 16 1 16 1 34 1 34 1 35 1 35 1 43 1 43 1 49 1 49 1 54 1 54 1 60 1 60 03170002 03170003 03170008 03170009 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 06030001 06020001 1 054 12 0 08 1 054 20 1 198 41 0 07 1 198 48 11 13 0 08 11 20 11 94 0 08 12 01 13 74 0 08 13 82 15 82 0 08 15 90 18 21 0 08 18 29 06030002 2 867 15 2 929 39 3 042 75 0 00 3 042 75 3 109 16 0 00 3 109 17 3 178 00 0 00 2 867 15 2 872 42 0 00 2 872 43 0 00 2 929 40 2 979 50 0 00 2 979 50 06030003 06030004 53 10 0 37 53 47 45 04 0 39 45 43 39 41 0 44 39 85 35 82 0 49 36 30 33 97 0 54 34 51 06030005 06030006 TOTAL 1 331 41 8 788 97 0 31 1 331 72 1 326 16 0 32 1 326 48 33 20 8 822 17 8 662 95 45 69 8 708 65 6 089 28 45 37 6 134 64 6 086 49 46 62 6 133 11 6 084 19 47 72 6 131 91 6 116 35 49 26 6 165 61 6 182 44 0 00 3 178 00 51 26 6 233 70 Appendix C Water Withdrawal Forecasts based on University of Alabama GDP Data 55
54  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
54 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 TableB 6 Water Withdrawal in MGD by HUC EMSI Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 HUC 03130002 Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total 03130003 27 64 2 50 30 14 17 97 2 01 19 98 13 99 1 90 15 89 11 17 1 83 12 99 8 81 1 70 10 50 6 94 1 59 8 53 5 48 1 49 6 96 03130004 89 20 0 44 89 64 97 36 0 39 97 75 101 69 0 27 101 96 101 05 0 23 101 28 102 95 0 21 103 16 104 89 0 21 105 10 106 87 0 21 107 07 03130012 03140103 03140104 03140106 03140107 03140201 0 27 0 27 1 20 1 20 1 09 1 09 1 07 1 07 1 06 1 06 1 07 1 07 1 08 1 08 03140202 1 13 1 13 0 95 0 95 1 12 1 12 1 21 1 21 1 36 1 36 1 52 1 52 1 71 1 71 03140203 03140301 1 74 1 74 1 82 1 82 2 30 2 30 2 49 2 49 2 92 2 92 3 43 3 43 4 02 4 02 03140302 03140303 0 30 0 30 0 26 0 26 0 25 0 25 0 24 0 24 0 23 0 23 0 22 0 22 0 20 0 20 03140304 33 61 1 38 34 99 31 74 1 44 33 18 35 48 1 45 36 92 35 48 1 53 37 01 37 55 1 58 39 13 39 75 1 63 41 38 42 07 1 69 43 76 03140305 0 09 0 09 0 48 0 48 0 64 0 64 0 74 0 74 0 92 0 92 1 14 1 14 1 41 1 41 03150105 03150106 152 91 1 81 143 75 115 20 1 88 117 08 109 23 1 98 111 22 97 58 2 09 99 66 88 03 2 20 90 23 80 15 2 33 82 48 1 035 89 1 035 89 1 113 10 0 97 153 88 141 94 03150107 665 45 665 45 777 21 777 21 860 44 860 44 897 17 897 17 964 04 964 04 03150108 03150109 03150110 03150201 64 62 10 33 74 95 72 96 19 67 92 63 0 13 76 97 20 20 97 17 78 10 20 65 98 76 80 84 21 23 102 07 83 70 21 87 105 57 86 67 22 59 1 113 10 109 26 03150202 0 16 0 16 0 03 0 16 0 03 0 12 0 14 0 03 0 12 0 15 0 03 0 12 0 15 0 03 0 12 0 14 0 03 0 11 0 14 03150203 20 13 20 13 24 74 24 74 20 91 20 91 20 52 20 52 18 71 18 71 17 05 17 05 15 54 15 54 27 10 03150204 46 31 0 39 46 70 39 69 0 44 40 13 35 34 0 40 35 74 33 80 0 47 34 27 31 21 0 48 31 69 28 81 0 50 29 30 26 59 0 51 03160101 03160103 03160105 0 11 0 11 0 11 0 11 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 07 0 07 03160106 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 03160107 03160108 03160109 924 65 937 64 0 59 938 24 782 87 0 72 783 58 714 10 0 90 623 70 1 11 624 82 546 38 476 56 03160110 03160111 0 34 0 34 0 35 0 35 0 34 0 34 0 37 0 37 0 37 0 37 0 38 0 38 0 39 0 39 0 20 03160112 2 19 03160113 355 47 0 43 925 08 715 01 545 01 1 37 1 69 478 26 2 39 2 05 0 19 2 24 2 20 0 17 2 36 2 25 0 16 2 41 2 36 0 15 2 51 2 49 0 13 2 62 2 63 0 12 2 75 0 58 356 05 30 16 0 54 30 70 44 55 0 46 45 01 53 25 0 45 53 70 71 53 0 41 71 93 96 24 0 37 96 61 129 64 0 35 129 99 33 68 03160201 59 50 59 50 54 73 54 73 48 28 48 28 45 03 45 03 40 87 40 87 37 10 37 10 33 68 03160202 1 11 1 11 0 99 0 99 1 04 1 04 1 06 1 06 1 09 1 09 1 13 1 13 1 17 03160203 100 60 7 08 107 68 100 82 7 12 107 95 99 22 6 55 105 77 97 53 6 51 104 04 96 13 6 43 102 57 94 89 6 51 101 39 93 78 6 75 100 53 4 94 996 11 934 12 855 16 1 17 03160204 991 17 6 26 940 37 5 92 861 08 847 75 6 16 853 91 807 98 6 18 814 16 770 18 6 24 776 42 734 27 6 34 740 60 03160205 1 16 1 16 1 34 1 34 1 35 1 35 1 43 1 43 1 49 1 49 1 54 1 54 1 60 1 60 03170002 03170003 03170008 03170009 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 06030001 06020001 1 054 12 0 08 1 054 20 1 198 41 0 07 1 198 48 11 13 0 08 11 20 11 94 0 08 12 01 13 74 0 08 13 82 15 82 0 08 15 90 18 21 0 08 18 29 06030002 2 867 15 2 929 39 3 042 75 0 00 3 042 75 3 109 16 0 00 3 109 17 3 178 00 0 00 2 867 15 2 872 42 0 00 2 872 43 0 00 2 929 40 2 979 50 0 00 2 979 50 06030003 06030004 53 10 0 37 53 47 45 04 0 39 45 43 39 41 0 44 39 85 35 82 0 49 36 30 33 97 0 54 34 51 06030005 06030006 TOTAL 1 331 41 8 788 97 0 31 1 331 72 1 326 16 0 32 1 326 48 33 20 8 822 17 8 662 95 45 69 8 708 65 6 089 28 45 37 6 134 64 6 086 49 46 62 6 133 11 6 084 19 47 72 6 131 91 6 116 35 49 26 6 165 61 6 182 44 0 00 3 178 00 51 26 6 233 70 Appendix C Water Withdrawal Forecasts based on University of Alabama GDP Data 55
54  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
56 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 57 State Level Analysis Ground Water Withdrawals Chart C 1 1 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 University of Alabama GDP Table C 1 provides a breakdown of ground water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data The forecasts indicate that Thermoelectric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in ground water withdrawal with increases of 125 percent 177 percent 311 percent and 315 percent respectively Mining will experience a 9 percent decline and Wholesale will experience an 8 percent increase Total ground water withdrawals are forecast to increase by 261 percent Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table C 1 Ground Water Withdrawal Data in MGD University of Alabama GDP YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mining 0 24 0 21 0 23 0 22 Thermo electric 0 20 0 36 0 38 0 40 Pulp and Paper 11 78 14 95 18 13 20 88 Petrochemical 10 96 20 01 24 37 28 26 Other Manufacturing 10 01 17 78 21 83 25 51 Wholesale 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 03 Total 33 20 53 34 64 97 75 29 2030 0 21 0 42 24 54 33 43 30 39 0 04 89 02 2035 0 22 0 43 28 51 39 06 35 77 0 05 104 04 2040 0 22 0 45 32 60 45 01 41 53 0 06 119 86 Chart C 1 2 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 University of Alabama GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale The following charts Chart C 1 1 Chart C 1 4 provide the breakdown of ground water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Pulp and Paper industrial users declines while the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
56  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
56 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 57 State Level Analysis Ground Water Withdrawals Chart C 1 1 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 University of Alabama GDP Table C 1 provides a breakdown of ground water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data The forecasts indicate that Thermoelectric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in ground water withdrawal with increases of 125 percent 177 percent 311 percent and 315 percent respectively Mining will experience a 9 percent decline and Wholesale will experience an 8 percent increase Total ground water withdrawals are forecast to increase by 261 percent Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table C 1 Ground Water Withdrawal Data in MGD University of Alabama GDP YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mining 0 24 0 21 0 23 0 22 Thermo electric 0 20 0 36 0 38 0 40 Pulp and Paper 11 78 14 95 18 13 20 88 Petrochemical 10 96 20 01 24 37 28 26 Other Manufacturing 10 01 17 78 21 83 25 51 Wholesale 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 03 Total 33 20 53 34 64 97 75 29 2030 0 21 0 42 24 54 33 43 30 39 0 04 89 02 2035 0 22 0 43 28 51 39 06 35 77 0 05 104 04 2040 0 22 0 45 32 60 45 01 41 53 0 06 119 86 Chart C 1 2 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 University of Alabama GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale The following charts Chart C 1 1 Chart C 1 4 provide the breakdown of ground water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Pulp and Paper industrial users declines while the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
56  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
58 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart C 1 3 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 University of Alabama GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Surface Water Withdrawals Table C 2 provides a breakdown of surface water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data The forecasts indicate that Pulp and Paper Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in surface water withdrawal with increases of 140 percent 173 percent and 202 percent respectively Mining will experience a 14 percent decline and Thermo electric will remain unchanged Total surface water withdrawals are forecast to increase by 9 percent Wholesale Table C 2 Surface Water Withdrawal Data in MGD University of Alabama GDP Chart C 1 3 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 University of Alabama GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Mining 3 30 2 69 2 95 2 79 2 74 Thermo electric 8 251 64 9 151 34 6 914 97 7 248 50 7 580 09 Pulp and Paper 369 99 454 32 538 81 607 48 697 28 Petrochemical 140 28 191 05 227 75 258 08 298 10 Other Manufacturing 23 77 33 97 41 08 47 05 54 93 Wholesale 0 03 0 03 0 04 0 05 Total 8 788 97 9 833 41 7 725 60 8 163 93 8 633 19 2035 2 80 7 918 29 791 15 340 04 63 31 0 07 9 115 66 2040 2 84 8 257 48 885 06 382 51 71 89 0 09 9 599 86 59
58  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
58 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart C 1 3 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 University of Alabama GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Surface Water Withdrawals Table C 2 provides a breakdown of surface water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data The forecasts indicate that Pulp and Paper Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in surface water withdrawal with increases of 140 percent 173 percent and 202 percent respectively Mining will experience a 14 percent decline and Thermo electric will remain unchanged Total surface water withdrawals are forecast to increase by 9 percent Wholesale Table C 2 Surface Water Withdrawal Data in MGD University of Alabama GDP Chart C 1 3 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 University of Alabama GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Mining 3 30 2 69 2 95 2 79 2 74 Thermo electric 8 251 64 9 151 34 6 914 97 7 248 50 7 580 09 Pulp and Paper 369 99 454 32 538 81 607 48 697 28 Petrochemical 140 28 191 05 227 75 258 08 298 10 Other Manufacturing 23 77 33 97 41 08 47 05 54 93 Wholesale 0 03 0 03 0 04 0 05 Total 8 788 97 9 833 41 7 725 60 8 163 93 8 633 19 2035 2 80 7 918 29 791 15 340 04 63 31 0 07 9 115 66 2040 2 84 8 257 48 885 06 382 51 71 89 0 09 9 599 86 59
58  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
60 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 The following charts Chart C 2 1 Chart C 2 4 provide the breakdown of surface water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that the during the 31 year period the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Pulp and Paper industrial users increases This is consistent with closing of two TVA thermoelectric plants and the longterm projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart C 2 1 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 University of Alabama GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart C 2 2 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 University of Alabama GDP Chart C 2 3 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 University of Alabama GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart C 2 4 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 University of Alabama GDP Mining Mining Thermo electric Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Wholesale Wholesale 61
60  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  The following charts, Chart C-2.1     Cha...
60 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 The following charts Chart C 2 1 Chart C 2 4 provide the breakdown of surface water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that the during the 31 year period the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Pulp and Paper industrial users increases This is consistent with closing of two TVA thermoelectric plants and the longterm projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart C 2 1 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 University of Alabama GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart C 2 2 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 University of Alabama GDP Chart C 2 3 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 University of Alabama GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart C 2 4 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 University of Alabama GDP Mining Mining Thermo electric Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Other Manufacturing Wholesale Wholesale 61
60  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  The following charts, Chart C-2.1     Cha...
62 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart C 3 1 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 University of Alabama GDP Total Water Withdrawals Table C 3 provides a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data The forecasts indicate that Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Wholesale will experience significant increases in total water withdrawal with increases of 140 percent 183 percent 236 percent and 511 percent respectively Mining will experience a 14 percent decline and Thermo electric will experience an increase of less than 1 percent Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table C 3 Surface Water Withdrawal Data in MGD University of Alabama GDP YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mining 3 53 2 91 3 19 3 00 2 96 3 02 Thermo electric 8 251 84 9 151 71 6 915 35 7 248 89 7 580 51 7 918 72 Pulp and Paper 381 77 469 27 556 95 628 35 721 82 819 66 Petrochemical 151 24 211 07 252 12 286 34 331 53 379 10 Other Manufacturing 33 78 51 76 62 90 72 56 85 32 99 08 Wholesale 0 02 0 05 0 06 0 07 0 09 0 12 Total 8 822 17 9 886 75 7 790 57 8 239 22 8 722 22 9 219 70 2040 3 05 8 257 93 917 66 427 52 113 42 0 15 9 719 72 Chart C 3 2 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 University of Alabama GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 63 The following charts Chart C 3 1 Chart C 3 4 provide the breakdown of total water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of total water withdrawn by Thermoelectric industrial users declines while the proportion of total water withdrawn by Petrochemical Pulp and Paper and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the closing of two TVA thermoelectric plants and the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
62  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
62 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart C 3 1 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 University of Alabama GDP Total Water Withdrawals Table C 3 provides a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data The forecasts indicate that Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Wholesale will experience significant increases in total water withdrawal with increases of 140 percent 183 percent 236 percent and 511 percent respectively Mining will experience a 14 percent decline and Thermo electric will experience an increase of less than 1 percent Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table C 3 Surface Water Withdrawal Data in MGD University of Alabama GDP YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mining 3 53 2 91 3 19 3 00 2 96 3 02 Thermo electric 8 251 84 9 151 71 6 915 35 7 248 89 7 580 51 7 918 72 Pulp and Paper 381 77 469 27 556 95 628 35 721 82 819 66 Petrochemical 151 24 211 07 252 12 286 34 331 53 379 10 Other Manufacturing 33 78 51 76 62 90 72 56 85 32 99 08 Wholesale 0 02 0 05 0 06 0 07 0 09 0 12 Total 8 822 17 9 886 75 7 790 57 8 239 22 8 722 22 9 219 70 2040 3 05 8 257 93 917 66 427 52 113 42 0 15 9 719 72 Chart C 3 2 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 University of Alabama GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 63 The following charts Chart C 3 1 Chart C 3 4 provide the breakdown of total water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of total water withdrawn by Thermoelectric industrial users declines while the proportion of total water withdrawn by Petrochemical Pulp and Paper and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the closing of two TVA thermoelectric plants and the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
62  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart C 3 3 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 University of Alabama GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Table C 4 and Chart C 4 provide a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the water source based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data The forecast indicates that approximately 99 percent of water withdrawn is surface water Ground water is projected to increase by 261 percent during the 31 year period whereas surface water is expected to increase by only 9 percent Thermo electric is the largest user of surface water and the closing of the two TVA plants significantly impacts the surface water withdrawn Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Table C 4 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD University of Alabama GDP Wholesale YEAR Water Source 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Ground 33 20 53 34 64 97 75 29 89 02 104 04 119 86 Surface 8 788 97 9 833 41 7 725 60 8 163 93 8 633 19 9 115 66 9 599 86 Total 8 822 17 9 886 75 7 790 57 8 239 22 8 722 22 9 219 70 9 719 72 Chart C 3 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 University of Alabama GDP Chart C 4 Self Supplied Water Withdrawal Data in MGD 2010 2040 University of Alabama GDP 10 000 00 Mining 1 000 00 9 599 86 9 115 66 8 633 19 8 163 93 7 725 60 100 00 Other Manufacturing 9 833 41 Pulp and Paper Petrochemical 8 788 97 Thermo electric 1 00 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 119 86 104 04 89 02 75 29 64 97 10 00 53 34 Wholesale 33 20 64 2040 Surface Ground 65
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Suppli...
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart C 3 3 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 University of Alabama GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Table C 4 and Chart C 4 provide a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the water source based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data The forecast indicates that approximately 99 percent of water withdrawn is surface water Ground water is projected to increase by 261 percent during the 31 year period whereas surface water is expected to increase by only 9 percent Thermo electric is the largest user of surface water and the closing of the two TVA plants significantly impacts the surface water withdrawn Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Table C 4 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD University of Alabama GDP Wholesale YEAR Water Source 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Ground 33 20 53 34 64 97 75 29 89 02 104 04 119 86 Surface 8 788 97 9 833 41 7 725 60 8 163 93 8 633 19 9 115 66 9 599 86 Total 8 822 17 9 886 75 7 790 57 8 239 22 8 722 22 9 219 70 9 719 72 Chart C 3 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 University of Alabama GDP Chart C 4 Self Supplied Water Withdrawal Data in MGD 2010 2040 University of Alabama GDP 10 000 00 Mining 1 000 00 9 599 86 9 115 66 8 633 19 8 163 93 7 725 60 100 00 Other Manufacturing 9 833 41 Pulp and Paper Petrochemical 8 788 97 Thermo electric 1 00 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 119 86 104 04 89 02 75 29 64 97 10 00 53 34 Wholesale 33 20 64 2040 Surface Ground 65
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Suppli...
66 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 67 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table C 5 Water Withdrawal in MGD by County University of Alabama GDP 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 COUNTY Surface Ground AUTAUGA County Level Analysis HUC Level Analysis The county level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each county during the 31 year period Table C 5 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each county in the State of Alabama based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data The results indicate that two counties Colbert and Jackson experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each county However some counties experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g Autauga Choctaw Lawrence Monroe Morgan and Shelby with increases of 176 percent 116 percent 141 percent 86 percent 150 percent and 83 percent The counties with the largest water withdrawals are Limestone Walker Mobile and Shelby with each county having water withdrawals in excess of 1 billion gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these four counties accounts for 77 percent of all water withdrawn The HUC level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each HUC during the 31 year period Table C 6 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each HUC in the State of Alabama based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data The results indicate that two HUCs 06030001 and 06030005 experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each HUC However some HUCs experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g 03130003 03140304 03150107 03150201 03150204 03160201 and 06030002 with increases of 152 percent 159 percent 83 percent 179 percent 86 percent 121 percent 74 percent and 43 percent respectively The HUCs with the largest water withdrawals are 03150107 03160109 03160203 03160204 and 06030002 with each HUC having water withdrawals in excess of 1 billion gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these four HUCs accounts for 81 percent of all water withdrawn 32 42 9 84 Total Surface Ground 42 26 40 73 12 43 Total Surface Ground 53 16 49 35 15 14 Total Surface Ground 64 48 56 83 17 49 Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground 74 32 87 46 66 82 20 64 77 71 24 07 Total Surface Ground 101 78 88 98 27 62 Total 116 60 BALDWIN BARBOUR 1 58 1 58 1 57 1 57 1 84 1 84 2 05 2 05 2 33 2 33 2 61 2 61 2 89 2 89 BIBB BULLOCK BUTLER 0 30 0 30 0 43 0 43 0 52 0 52 0 58 0 58 0 67 0 67 0 76 0 76 0 86 0 86 CALHOUN 0 97 0 97 1 18 1 18 1 41 1 41 1 60 1 60 1 85 1 85 2 12 2 12 2 40 2 40 CHAMBERS CHEROKEE 1 10 1 26 0 35 0 35 0 56 0 56 0 69 0 79 0 79 0 94 0 94 CHOCTAW 40 80 40 80 46 75 46 75 55 11 55 11 61 76 61 76 70 49 70 49 79 51 CLARKE CHILTON 0 69 1 10 79 51 88 32 1 26 88 32 51 90 20 21 20 21 26 81 26 81 31 74 31 74 35 70 35 70 40 97 40 97 46 43 46 43 51 90 CLAY CLEBURNE 1 13 1 13 2 71 2 71 3 31 3 31 3 84 3 84 4 53 4 53 5 29 5 29 6 08 6 08 124 87 0 55 125 42 141 14 0 62 141 77 162 49 0 72 163 20 184 90 0 82 185 71 207 72 0 92 208 63 COFFEE COLBERT 1 331 41 0 31 1 331 72 1 509 23 0 46 1 509 69 CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON 1 74 1 74 1 85 1 85 1 93 1 93 2 02 2 02 2 10 2 10 2 19 2 19 2 28 2 28 CRENSHAW CULLMAN 1 83 0 43 2 26 3 52 0 56 4 08 4 19 0 67 4 87 4 75 0 76 5 51 5 47 0 88 6 35 6 24 1 00 7 24 7 01 1 12 8 13 DALE DALLAS 32 20 0 14 32 34 40 00 0 17 40 16 47 08 0 20 47 28 52 72 0 22 52 94 60 16 0 26 60 42 67 84 0 29 68 13 75 34 0 32 75 66 DEKALB ELMORE 3 64 35 08 46 11 48 08 54 35 2 32 56 67 60 89 2 58 63 46 69 51 2 93 72 44 78 30 3 29 81 59 87 03 ETOWAH 123 78 123 78 121 07 121 07 124 31 124 31 125 56 125 56 127 21 127 21 128 85 128 85 130 11 FAYETTE 1 10 1 10 0 73 0 73 0 77 0 77 0 70 0 70 0 66 0 66 0 65 0 65 FRANKLIN GENEVA GREENE 354 43 ESCAMBIA 33 61 1 47 90 67 130 11 0 63 0 63 394 39 0 03 394 43 412 83 0 04 412 87 431 27 0 04 431 31 449 71 0 04 449 75 0 04 468 19 486 58 0 04 486 63 HALE 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 03 0 03 0 04 0 04 0 05 0 05 0 06 0 06 HENRY 0 54 0 54 0 71 0 71 0 84 0 84 0 96 0 96 1 10 1 10 1 25 1 25 1 41 1 41 89 20 0 17 89 37 99 25 0 33 99 58 103 89 0 35 104 24 108 53 0 36 108 89 113 17 0 38 113 55 117 81 0 39 118 21 122 45 0 41 122 86 19 36 HOUSTON 0 03 354 46 1 97 1 173 32 12 09 12 09 13 54 13 54 15 46 15 46 17 43 17 43 19 36 JEFFERSON 0 50 0 50 0 03 0 71 0 74 0 03 0 90 0 93 0 04 1 08 1 12 0 05 1 32 1 38 0 07 1 60 1 67 0 09 1 90 1 99 LAMAR 0 11 0 11 0 15 0 15 0 18 0 18 0 20 0 20 0 23 0 23 0 26 0 26 0 29 0 29 JACKSON 1 054 12 LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEE LIMESTONE 1 054 12 1 173 32 468 15 60 09 60 09 76 24 76 24 90 11 90 11 101 39 101 39 115 41 115 41 130 05 130 05 144 90 144 90 2 725 63 2 725 63 3 032 93 3 032 93 3 174 72 3 174 72 3 316 52 3 316 52 3 458 31 3 458 31 3 600 10 3 600 10 3 741 89 3 741 89 LOWNDES 4 35 4 35 5 18 5 18 5 86 5 86 6 76 6 76 7 70 7 70 8 63 8 63 MACON MADISON MARENGO 17 78 17 78 21 81 21 81 25 71 25 71 28 79 28 79 32 87 32 87 37 05 37 05 41 19 41 19 MARION MARSHALL 0 08 0 08 0 10 0 10 0 12 0 12 0 14 0 14 0 17 0 17 0 19 0 19 0 22 0 22 MOBILE MONTGOMERY MORGAN 7 03 998 20 974 34 11 45 985 79 1 021 01 46 31 0 39 46 70 45 54 0 38 45 92 53 65 0 18 2 69 2 86 81 43 0 00 81 44 101 42 0 00 101 42 991 17 MONROE 14 63 1 035 64 1 067 29 0 45 54 10 60 13 17 78 1 085 07 0 50 60 64 1 112 45 22 00 1 134 45 68 64 0 57 69 22 1 159 22 26 81 1 186 03 77 41 1 205 17 0 65 78 06 86 00 0 22 3 31 3 53 0 25 3 88 4 14 0 30 4 64 4 94 120 77 0 00 120 77 136 94 0 00 136 94 158 33 0 01 32 17 1 237 34 0 72 0 36 5 47 5 83 0 42 6 36 6 77 158 34 180 73 0 01 180 74 203 35 0 01 203 36 86 72 PERRY PICKENS 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 PIKE RANDOLPH 27 64 0 92 28 56 35 85 37 04 42 61 44 03 48 17 49 78 55 50 57 35 63 19 2 11 65 30 70 82 2 36 73 18 RUSSELL 1 19 1 42 1 61 1 85 SHELBY 665 45 665 45 856 32 856 32 922 71 922 71 993 64 993 64 1 064 04 1 064 04 1 139 61 1 139 61 1 217 41 1 217 41 STCLAIR 4 46 4 46 7 09 7 09 8 70 8 70 10 12 10 12 11 98 11 98 13 95 13 95 15 98 15 98 SUMTER 2 03 2 03 2 03 2 03 2 31 2 31 2 38 2 38 2 55 2 55 2 77 2 77 2 97 2 97 24 67 24 67 32 08 32 08 38 77 38 77 44 49 44 49 52 01 52 01 60 18 60 18 68 55 68 55 TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA 2 12 0 74 2 86 2 27 0 96 3 23 2 76 1 23 3 99 3 10 1 49 4 59 3 61 1 85 5 45 4 23 2 25 6 48 4 91 2 71 7 63 1 122 88 1 170 88 1 170 88 1 218 89 1 218 89 1 266 90 922 82 1 026 86 1 074 87 1 074 87 1 122 88 WASHINGTON 80 39 6 15 86 55 90 52 8 18 98 70 95 59 9 64 105 23 100 44 WILCOX 20 13 20 13 24 19 24 19 28 53 28 53 WALKER WINSTON TOTAL 8 788 97 922 82 1 026 86 33 20 8 822 17 9 833 41 53 34 9 886 75 7 725 60 64 97 7 790 57 1 266 90 31 95 31 95 36 44 36 44 41 11 41 11 45 70 45 70 8 163 93 75 29 8 239 22 8 633 19 89 02 8 722 22 110 75 13 89 124 65 111 24 105 58 12 33 117 91 10 80 9 115 66 104 04 9 219 70 115 90 15 44 131 34 9 599 86 119 86 9 719 72
66  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  67  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Sel...
66 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 67 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table C 5 Water Withdrawal in MGD by County University of Alabama GDP 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 COUNTY Surface Ground AUTAUGA County Level Analysis HUC Level Analysis The county level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each county during the 31 year period Table C 5 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each county in the State of Alabama based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data The results indicate that two counties Colbert and Jackson experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each county However some counties experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g Autauga Choctaw Lawrence Monroe Morgan and Shelby with increases of 176 percent 116 percent 141 percent 86 percent 150 percent and 83 percent The counties with the largest water withdrawals are Limestone Walker Mobile and Shelby with each county having water withdrawals in excess of 1 billion gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these four counties accounts for 77 percent of all water withdrawn The HUC level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each HUC during the 31 year period Table C 6 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each HUC in the State of Alabama based on the University of Alabama Study using GDP data The results indicate that two HUCs 06030001 and 06030005 experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each HUC However some HUCs experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g 03130003 03140304 03150107 03150201 03150204 03160201 and 06030002 with increases of 152 percent 159 percent 83 percent 179 percent 86 percent 121 percent 74 percent and 43 percent respectively The HUCs with the largest water withdrawals are 03150107 03160109 03160203 03160204 and 06030002 with each HUC having water withdrawals in excess of 1 billion gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these four HUCs accounts for 81 percent of all water withdrawn 32 42 9 84 Total Surface Ground 42 26 40 73 12 43 Total Surface Ground 53 16 49 35 15 14 Total Surface Ground 64 48 56 83 17 49 Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground 74 32 87 46 66 82 20 64 77 71 24 07 Total Surface Ground 101 78 88 98 27 62 Total 116 60 BALDWIN BARBOUR 1 58 1 58 1 57 1 57 1 84 1 84 2 05 2 05 2 33 2 33 2 61 2 61 2 89 2 89 BIBB BULLOCK BUTLER 0 30 0 30 0 43 0 43 0 52 0 52 0 58 0 58 0 67 0 67 0 76 0 76 0 86 0 86 CALHOUN 0 97 0 97 1 18 1 18 1 41 1 41 1 60 1 60 1 85 1 85 2 12 2 12 2 40 2 40 CHAMBERS CHEROKEE 1 10 1 26 0 35 0 35 0 56 0 56 0 69 0 79 0 79 0 94 0 94 CHOCTAW 40 80 40 80 46 75 46 75 55 11 55 11 61 76 61 76 70 49 70 49 79 51 CLARKE CHILTON 0 69 1 10 79 51 88 32 1 26 88 32 51 90 20 21 20 21 26 81 26 81 31 74 31 74 35 70 35 70 40 97 40 97 46 43 46 43 51 90 CLAY CLEBURNE 1 13 1 13 2 71 2 71 3 31 3 31 3 84 3 84 4 53 4 53 5 29 5 29 6 08 6 08 124 87 0 55 125 42 141 14 0 62 141 77 162 49 0 72 163 20 184 90 0 82 185 71 207 72 0 92 208 63 COFFEE COLBERT 1 331 41 0 31 1 331 72 1 509 23 0 46 1 509 69 CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON 1 74 1 74 1 85 1 85 1 93 1 93 2 02 2 02 2 10 2 10 2 19 2 19 2 28 2 28 CRENSHAW CULLMAN 1 83 0 43 2 26 3 52 0 56 4 08 4 19 0 67 4 87 4 75 0 76 5 51 5 47 0 88 6 35 6 24 1 00 7 24 7 01 1 12 8 13 DALE DALLAS 32 20 0 14 32 34 40 00 0 17 40 16 47 08 0 20 47 28 52 72 0 22 52 94 60 16 0 26 60 42 67 84 0 29 68 13 75 34 0 32 75 66 DEKALB ELMORE 3 64 35 08 46 11 48 08 54 35 2 32 56 67 60 89 2 58 63 46 69 51 2 93 72 44 78 30 3 29 81 59 87 03 ETOWAH 123 78 123 78 121 07 121 07 124 31 124 31 125 56 125 56 127 21 127 21 128 85 128 85 130 11 FAYETTE 1 10 1 10 0 73 0 73 0 77 0 77 0 70 0 70 0 66 0 66 0 65 0 65 FRANKLIN GENEVA GREENE 354 43 ESCAMBIA 33 61 1 47 90 67 130 11 0 63 0 63 394 39 0 03 394 43 412 83 0 04 412 87 431 27 0 04 431 31 449 71 0 04 449 75 0 04 468 19 486 58 0 04 486 63 HALE 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 03 0 03 0 04 0 04 0 05 0 05 0 06 0 06 HENRY 0 54 0 54 0 71 0 71 0 84 0 84 0 96 0 96 1 10 1 10 1 25 1 25 1 41 1 41 89 20 0 17 89 37 99 25 0 33 99 58 103 89 0 35 104 24 108 53 0 36 108 89 113 17 0 38 113 55 117 81 0 39 118 21 122 45 0 41 122 86 19 36 HOUSTON 0 03 354 46 1 97 1 173 32 12 09 12 09 13 54 13 54 15 46 15 46 17 43 17 43 19 36 JEFFERSON 0 50 0 50 0 03 0 71 0 74 0 03 0 90 0 93 0 04 1 08 1 12 0 05 1 32 1 38 0 07 1 60 1 67 0 09 1 90 1 99 LAMAR 0 11 0 11 0 15 0 15 0 18 0 18 0 20 0 20 0 23 0 23 0 26 0 26 0 29 0 29 JACKSON 1 054 12 LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEE LIMESTONE 1 054 12 1 173 32 468 15 60 09 60 09 76 24 76 24 90 11 90 11 101 39 101 39 115 41 115 41 130 05 130 05 144 90 144 90 2 725 63 2 725 63 3 032 93 3 032 93 3 174 72 3 174 72 3 316 52 3 316 52 3 458 31 3 458 31 3 600 10 3 600 10 3 741 89 3 741 89 LOWNDES 4 35 4 35 5 18 5 18 5 86 5 86 6 76 6 76 7 70 7 70 8 63 8 63 MACON MADISON MARENGO 17 78 17 78 21 81 21 81 25 71 25 71 28 79 28 79 32 87 32 87 37 05 37 05 41 19 41 19 MARION MARSHALL 0 08 0 08 0 10 0 10 0 12 0 12 0 14 0 14 0 17 0 17 0 19 0 19 0 22 0 22 MOBILE MONTGOMERY MORGAN 7 03 998 20 974 34 11 45 985 79 1 021 01 46 31 0 39 46 70 45 54 0 38 45 92 53 65 0 18 2 69 2 86 81 43 0 00 81 44 101 42 0 00 101 42 991 17 MONROE 14 63 1 035 64 1 067 29 0 45 54 10 60 13 17 78 1 085 07 0 50 60 64 1 112 45 22 00 1 134 45 68 64 0 57 69 22 1 159 22 26 81 1 186 03 77 41 1 205 17 0 65 78 06 86 00 0 22 3 31 3 53 0 25 3 88 4 14 0 30 4 64 4 94 120 77 0 00 120 77 136 94 0 00 136 94 158 33 0 01 32 17 1 237 34 0 72 0 36 5 47 5 83 0 42 6 36 6 77 158 34 180 73 0 01 180 74 203 35 0 01 203 36 86 72 PERRY PICKENS 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 PIKE RANDOLPH 27 64 0 92 28 56 35 85 37 04 42 61 44 03 48 17 49 78 55 50 57 35 63 19 2 11 65 30 70 82 2 36 73 18 RUSSELL 1 19 1 42 1 61 1 85 SHELBY 665 45 665 45 856 32 856 32 922 71 922 71 993 64 993 64 1 064 04 1 064 04 1 139 61 1 139 61 1 217 41 1 217 41 STCLAIR 4 46 4 46 7 09 7 09 8 70 8 70 10 12 10 12 11 98 11 98 13 95 13 95 15 98 15 98 SUMTER 2 03 2 03 2 03 2 03 2 31 2 31 2 38 2 38 2 55 2 55 2 77 2 77 2 97 2 97 24 67 24 67 32 08 32 08 38 77 38 77 44 49 44 49 52 01 52 01 60 18 60 18 68 55 68 55 TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA 2 12 0 74 2 86 2 27 0 96 3 23 2 76 1 23 3 99 3 10 1 49 4 59 3 61 1 85 5 45 4 23 2 25 6 48 4 91 2 71 7 63 1 122 88 1 170 88 1 170 88 1 218 89 1 218 89 1 266 90 922 82 1 026 86 1 074 87 1 074 87 1 122 88 WASHINGTON 80 39 6 15 86 55 90 52 8 18 98 70 95 59 9 64 105 23 100 44 WILCOX 20 13 20 13 24 19 24 19 28 53 28 53 WALKER WINSTON TOTAL 8 788 97 922 82 1 026 86 33 20 8 822 17 9 833 41 53 34 9 886 75 7 725 60 64 97 7 790 57 1 266 90 31 95 31 95 36 44 36 44 41 11 41 11 45 70 45 70 8 163 93 75 29 8 239 22 8 633 19 89 02 8 722 22 110 75 13 89 124 65 111 24 105 58 12 33 117 91 10 80 9 115 66 104 04 9 219 70 115 90 15 44 131 34 9 599 86 119 86 9 719 72
66  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  67  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Sel...
68 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table C 6 Water Withdrawal in MGD by HUC University of Alabama GDP 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 HUC Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total 03130002 03130003 27 64 2 50 30 14 35 85 2 76 38 61 42 61 3 26 45 87 48 17 3 66 51 83 55 50 4 18 59 68 63 19 4 72 67 91 70 82 5 25 76 07 1 02 123 57 03130004 89 20 0 44 89 64 99 25 0 68 99 94 103 89 0 77 104 66 108 53 0 84 109 37 113 17 0 93 114 10 117 81 118 83 122 45 1 11 03130012 03140103 03140104 03140106 03140107 03140201 0 27 0 27 1 60 1 60 1 95 1 95 2 24 2 24 2 64 2 64 3 06 3 06 3 51 3 51 3 28 03140202 1 13 1 13 1 46 1 46 1 79 1 79 2 07 2 07 2 45 2 45 2 85 2 85 3 28 03140203 03140301 1 74 1 74 1 85 1 85 1 93 1 93 2 02 2 02 2 10 2 10 2 19 2 19 2 28 2 28 03140302 03140303 0 30 0 30 0 43 0 43 0 52 0 52 0 58 0 58 0 67 0 67 0 76 0 76 0 86 0 86 03140304 33 61 1 38 34 99 46 11 1 89 48 00 54 35 2 23 56 58 60 89 2 50 63 38 69 51 2 85 72 36 78 30 3 21 81 51 87 03 3 57 90 60 03140305 0 09 0 09 0 08 0 08 0 09 0 09 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 07 0 07 0 07 0 07 03150105 03150106 152 91 1 18 161 41 171 78 1 41 173 19 180 17 1 60 181 77 191 20 193 06 202 97 2 12 205 09 214 65 2 40 217 04 1 064 04 1 064 04 1 139 61 1 139 61 1 217 41 0 97 153 88 160 24 1 85 03150107 665 45 665 45 856 32 856 32 922 71 922 71 993 64 993 64 03150108 03150109 03150110 03150201 64 62 10 33 74 95 80 90 20 19 101 09 96 65 24 51 121 16 109 80 28 25 138 05 127 29 33 22 160 51 145 91 38 62 184 53 1 217 41 164 74 44 19 208 93 03150202 0 16 0 16 0 03 0 22 0 25 0 03 0 28 0 32 0 04 0 34 0 38 0 05 0 41 0 47 0 07 0 50 0 57 0 09 0 59 0 68 03150203 20 13 20 13 24 19 24 19 28 53 28 53 31 95 31 95 36 44 36 44 41 11 41 11 45 70 45 70 86 72 03150204 46 31 0 39 46 70 45 54 0 38 45 92 53 65 0 45 54 10 60 13 0 50 60 64 68 64 0 57 69 22 77 41 0 65 78 06 86 00 0 72 03160101 03160103 03160105 0 11 0 11 0 15 0 15 0 18 0 18 0 20 0 20 0 23 0 23 0 26 0 26 0 29 0 29 03160106 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 03160107 03160108 03160109 924 65 0 43 925 08 1 030 38 0 56 1 030 95 03160110 03160111 0 34 0 34 0 49 0 49 0 62 0 62 0 74 0 74 0 91 0 91 1 10 1 10 1 31 1 31 0 20 03160112 2 19 03160113 355 47 1 079 06 0 67 1 079 74 1 127 62 0 76 1 128 38 1 176 36 0 88 1 177 23 1 225 13 1 00 1 226 13 1 273 90 1 12 1 275 03 2 39 1 65 0 26 1 91 1 80 0 34 2 14 1 70 0 41 2 11 1 67 0 51 2 18 1 71 0 62 2 32 1 73 0 74 2 47 0 58 356 05 395 74 0 75 396 49 414 56 0 95 415 51 433 37 1 15 434 51 452 30 1 42 453 72 471 32 1 73 473 04 490 40 2 07 492 47 131 37 03160201 59 50 59 50 69 54 69 54 81 98 81 98 91 85 91 85 104 85 104 85 118 23 118 23 131 37 03160202 1 11 1 11 1 04 1 04 1 15 1 15 1 09 1 09 1 07 1 07 1 09 1 09 1 11 03160203 100 60 7 08 107 68 117 33 9 63 126 95 127 33 138 81 136 14 161 67 157 18 03160204 991 17 4 94 996 11 974 34 8 29 982 63 1 021 01 10 61 1 031 62 1 067 29 03160205 1 16 1 16 1 72 1 72 2 18 2 18 2 61 2 61 3 20 3 20 3 88 3 88 4 64 03170002 03170003 11 48 13 05 149 18 12 92 1 080 21 146 55 15 11 1 112 45 16 01 1 128 45 17 29 174 48 1 159 22 19 53 1 178 75 167 80 19 52 1 205 17 1 11 187 32 23 45 1 228 62 4 64 03170008 03170009 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 06030001 06020001 1 054 12 0 08 1 054 20 1 173 32 0 10 1 173 42 12 09 0 12 12 22 13 54 0 14 13 68 15 46 0 17 15 62 17 43 0 19 17 62 19 36 0 22 19 58 06030002 2 867 15 3 385 60 3 732 05 0 01 3 732 05 3 910 88 0 01 3 910 89 4 090 13 0 00 2 867 15 3 210 58 0 00 3 210 59 0 00 3 385 60 3 554 84 0 00 3 554 85 06030003 06030004 124 87 0 55 125 42 141 14 0 62 141 77 162 49 0 72 163 20 184 90 0 82 185 71 207 72 0 92 208 63 06030005 06030006 TOTAL 1 331 41 8 788 97 0 31 1 331 72 1 509 23 0 46 1 509 69 33 20 8 822 17 9 833 41 53 34 9 886 75 7 725 60 64 97 7 790 57 8 163 93 75 29 8 239 22 8 633 19 89 02 8 722 22 9 115 66 104 04 9 219 70 0 01 4 090 14 9 599 86 119 86 9 719 72 Appendix D Water Withdrawal Forecasts based on International Forecasting Service GDP Data 69
68  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
68 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table C 6 Water Withdrawal in MGD by HUC University of Alabama GDP 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 HUC Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total 03130002 03130003 27 64 2 50 30 14 35 85 2 76 38 61 42 61 3 26 45 87 48 17 3 66 51 83 55 50 4 18 59 68 63 19 4 72 67 91 70 82 5 25 76 07 1 02 123 57 03130004 89 20 0 44 89 64 99 25 0 68 99 94 103 89 0 77 104 66 108 53 0 84 109 37 113 17 0 93 114 10 117 81 118 83 122 45 1 11 03130012 03140103 03140104 03140106 03140107 03140201 0 27 0 27 1 60 1 60 1 95 1 95 2 24 2 24 2 64 2 64 3 06 3 06 3 51 3 51 3 28 03140202 1 13 1 13 1 46 1 46 1 79 1 79 2 07 2 07 2 45 2 45 2 85 2 85 3 28 03140203 03140301 1 74 1 74 1 85 1 85 1 93 1 93 2 02 2 02 2 10 2 10 2 19 2 19 2 28 2 28 03140302 03140303 0 30 0 30 0 43 0 43 0 52 0 52 0 58 0 58 0 67 0 67 0 76 0 76 0 86 0 86 03140304 33 61 1 38 34 99 46 11 1 89 48 00 54 35 2 23 56 58 60 89 2 50 63 38 69 51 2 85 72 36 78 30 3 21 81 51 87 03 3 57 90 60 03140305 0 09 0 09 0 08 0 08 0 09 0 09 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 08 0 07 0 07 0 07 0 07 03150105 03150106 152 91 1 18 161 41 171 78 1 41 173 19 180 17 1 60 181 77 191 20 193 06 202 97 2 12 205 09 214 65 2 40 217 04 1 064 04 1 064 04 1 139 61 1 139 61 1 217 41 0 97 153 88 160 24 1 85 03150107 665 45 665 45 856 32 856 32 922 71 922 71 993 64 993 64 03150108 03150109 03150110 03150201 64 62 10 33 74 95 80 90 20 19 101 09 96 65 24 51 121 16 109 80 28 25 138 05 127 29 33 22 160 51 145 91 38 62 184 53 1 217 41 164 74 44 19 208 93 03150202 0 16 0 16 0 03 0 22 0 25 0 03 0 28 0 32 0 04 0 34 0 38 0 05 0 41 0 47 0 07 0 50 0 57 0 09 0 59 0 68 03150203 20 13 20 13 24 19 24 19 28 53 28 53 31 95 31 95 36 44 36 44 41 11 41 11 45 70 45 70 86 72 03150204 46 31 0 39 46 70 45 54 0 38 45 92 53 65 0 45 54 10 60 13 0 50 60 64 68 64 0 57 69 22 77 41 0 65 78 06 86 00 0 72 03160101 03160103 03160105 0 11 0 11 0 15 0 15 0 18 0 18 0 20 0 20 0 23 0 23 0 26 0 26 0 29 0 29 03160106 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 03160107 03160108 03160109 924 65 0 43 925 08 1 030 38 0 56 1 030 95 03160110 03160111 0 34 0 34 0 49 0 49 0 62 0 62 0 74 0 74 0 91 0 91 1 10 1 10 1 31 1 31 0 20 03160112 2 19 03160113 355 47 1 079 06 0 67 1 079 74 1 127 62 0 76 1 128 38 1 176 36 0 88 1 177 23 1 225 13 1 00 1 226 13 1 273 90 1 12 1 275 03 2 39 1 65 0 26 1 91 1 80 0 34 2 14 1 70 0 41 2 11 1 67 0 51 2 18 1 71 0 62 2 32 1 73 0 74 2 47 0 58 356 05 395 74 0 75 396 49 414 56 0 95 415 51 433 37 1 15 434 51 452 30 1 42 453 72 471 32 1 73 473 04 490 40 2 07 492 47 131 37 03160201 59 50 59 50 69 54 69 54 81 98 81 98 91 85 91 85 104 85 104 85 118 23 118 23 131 37 03160202 1 11 1 11 1 04 1 04 1 15 1 15 1 09 1 09 1 07 1 07 1 09 1 09 1 11 03160203 100 60 7 08 107 68 117 33 9 63 126 95 127 33 138 81 136 14 161 67 157 18 03160204 991 17 4 94 996 11 974 34 8 29 982 63 1 021 01 10 61 1 031 62 1 067 29 03160205 1 16 1 16 1 72 1 72 2 18 2 18 2 61 2 61 3 20 3 20 3 88 3 88 4 64 03170002 03170003 11 48 13 05 149 18 12 92 1 080 21 146 55 15 11 1 112 45 16 01 1 128 45 17 29 174 48 1 159 22 19 53 1 178 75 167 80 19 52 1 205 17 1 11 187 32 23 45 1 228 62 4 64 03170008 03170009 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 06030001 06020001 1 054 12 0 08 1 054 20 1 173 32 0 10 1 173 42 12 09 0 12 12 22 13 54 0 14 13 68 15 46 0 17 15 62 17 43 0 19 17 62 19 36 0 22 19 58 06030002 2 867 15 3 385 60 3 732 05 0 01 3 732 05 3 910 88 0 01 3 910 89 4 090 13 0 00 2 867 15 3 210 58 0 00 3 210 59 0 00 3 385 60 3 554 84 0 00 3 554 85 06030003 06030004 124 87 0 55 125 42 141 14 0 62 141 77 162 49 0 72 163 20 184 90 0 82 185 71 207 72 0 92 208 63 06030005 06030006 TOTAL 1 331 41 8 788 97 0 31 1 331 72 1 509 23 0 46 1 509 69 33 20 8 822 17 9 833 41 53 34 9 886 75 7 725 60 64 97 7 790 57 8 163 93 75 29 8 239 22 8 633 19 89 02 8 722 22 9 115 66 104 04 9 219 70 0 01 4 090 14 9 599 86 119 86 9 719 72 Appendix D Water Withdrawal Forecasts based on International Forecasting Service GDP Data 69
68  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
70 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 71 State Level Analysis Chart D 1 1 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service GDP Ground Water Withdrawals Table D 1 provides a breakdown of ground water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data The forecasts indicate that Mining Thermoelectric Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in ground water withdrawal with increases of 97 percent 74 percent 365 percent and 196 percent respectively Pulp and Paper and Wholesale will experience modest increases of 11 percent and 40 percent increase respectively Total ground water withdrawals are forecast to increase by 185 percent Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table D 1 Ground Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service GDP YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mining 0 24 0 25 0 28 0 32 Thermo electric 0 20 0 31 0 34 0 34 Pulp and Paper 11 78 11 76 12 16 12 38 Petrochemical 10 96 18 00 21 11 26 01 Other Manufacturing 10 01 15 29 17 05 19 20 Wholesale 0 02 0 02 0 03 0 04 Total 33 20 45 64 50 97 58 29 2030 0 36 0 34 12 61 32 29 21 92 0 04 67 57 2035 0 41 0 34 12 86 40 38 25 34 0 06 79 39 2040 0 47 0 35 13 11 50 89 29 68 0 07 94 56 Chart D 1 2 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale The following charts Chart D 1 1 Chart D 1 4 provide the breakdown of ground water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Pulp and Paper industrial users declines while the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
70  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
70 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 71 State Level Analysis Chart D 1 1 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service GDP Ground Water Withdrawals Table D 1 provides a breakdown of ground water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data The forecasts indicate that Mining Thermoelectric Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in ground water withdrawal with increases of 97 percent 74 percent 365 percent and 196 percent respectively Pulp and Paper and Wholesale will experience modest increases of 11 percent and 40 percent increase respectively Total ground water withdrawals are forecast to increase by 185 percent Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table D 1 Ground Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service GDP YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mining 0 24 0 25 0 28 0 32 Thermo electric 0 20 0 31 0 34 0 34 Pulp and Paper 11 78 11 76 12 16 12 38 Petrochemical 10 96 18 00 21 11 26 01 Other Manufacturing 10 01 15 29 17 05 19 20 Wholesale 0 02 0 02 0 03 0 04 Total 33 20 45 64 50 97 58 29 2030 0 36 0 34 12 61 32 29 21 92 0 04 67 57 2035 0 41 0 34 12 86 40 38 25 34 0 06 79 39 2040 0 47 0 35 13 11 50 89 29 68 0 07 94 56 Chart D 1 2 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale The following charts Chart D 1 1 Chart D 1 4 provide the breakdown of ground water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Pulp and Paper industrial users declines while the proportion of ground water withdrawn by Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
70  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
72 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart D 1 3 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Surface Water Withdrawals Table D 2 provides a breakdown of surface water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data The forecasts indicate that Mining Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in surface water withdrawal with increases of 79 percent 1432 percent and 178 percent respectively Thermo electric will experience a 5 percent increase and Pulp and Paper will experience a 3 percent decrease Total surface water withdrawals are forecast to increase by 28 percent Wholesale Table D 2 Surface Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service GDP Chart D 1 4 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Mining 3 30 3 04 3 86 4 24 4 70 5 24 5 91 Thermo electric 8 251 64 8 076 08 6 701 28 7 106 86 7 564 49 8 080 08 8 660 22 Pulp and Paper 369 99 357 41 346 69 344 70 345 94 350 48 358 45 Petrochemical 140 28 277 64 311 24 487 79 784 83 1 288 88 2 149 45 Other Manufacturing 23 77 29 94 33 20 39 24 46 52 55 32 65 98 Wholesale 0 03 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 06 0 07 Total 8 788 97 8 744 16 7 396 31 7 982 86 8 746 51 9 780 06 11 240 07 73
72  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
72 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart D 1 3 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Surface Water Withdrawals Table D 2 provides a breakdown of surface water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data The forecasts indicate that Mining Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing will experience significant increases in surface water withdrawal with increases of 79 percent 1432 percent and 178 percent respectively Thermo electric will experience a 5 percent increase and Pulp and Paper will experience a 3 percent decrease Total surface water withdrawals are forecast to increase by 28 percent Wholesale Table D 2 Surface Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service GDP Chart D 1 4 Self Supplied Ground Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Mining 3 30 3 04 3 86 4 24 4 70 5 24 5 91 Thermo electric 8 251 64 8 076 08 6 701 28 7 106 86 7 564 49 8 080 08 8 660 22 Pulp and Paper 369 99 357 41 346 69 344 70 345 94 350 48 358 45 Petrochemical 140 28 277 64 311 24 487 79 784 83 1 288 88 2 149 45 Other Manufacturing 23 77 29 94 33 20 39 24 46 52 55 32 65 98 Wholesale 0 03 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 06 0 07 Total 8 788 97 8 744 16 7 396 31 7 982 86 8 746 51 9 780 06 11 240 07 73
72  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Su...
74 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 The following charts Chart D 2 1 Chart D 2 4 provide the breakdown of surface water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Pulp and Paper industrial users increases This is consistent with closing of two TVA thermo electric plants and the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart D 2 1 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart D 2 2 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart D 2 3 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart D 2 4 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 75
74  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  The following charts, Chart D-2.1     Cha...
74 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 The following charts Chart D 2 1 Chart D 2 4 provide the breakdown of surface water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Thermo electric industrial users declines while the proportion of surface water withdrawn by Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Pulp and Paper industrial users increases This is consistent with closing of two TVA thermo electric plants and the long term projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart D 2 1 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart D 2 2 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart D 2 3 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2030 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Chart D 2 4 Self Supplied Surface Water Withdrawals in MGD 2040 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 75
74  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  The following charts, Chart D-2.1     Cha...
76 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Total Water Withdrawals Table D 3 provides a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data The forecasts indicate that Mining Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Wholesale will experience significant increases in total water withdrawal with increases of 80 percent 1355 percent 183 percent and 421 percent respectively Pulp and Paper will experience a 3 percent decline and Thermoelectric will experience a 5 percent increase Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart D 3 1 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table D 3 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service GDP YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Mining 3 53 3 29 4 15 4 56 5 06 5 66 6 37 Thermo electric 8 251 84 8 076 40 6 701 63 7 107 20 7 564 83 8 080 43 8 660 57 Pulp and Paper 381 77 369 17 358 85 357 08 358 55 363 34 371 57 Petrochemical 151 24 295 64 332 35 513 80 817 11 1 329 25 2 200 34 Other Manufacturing 33 78 45 23 50 25 58 44 68 44 80 67 95 65 Wholesale 0 02 0 05 0 06 0 07 0 09 0 11 0 14 Total 8 822 17 8 789 79 7 447 28 8 041 16 8 814 08 9 859 45 11 334 63 Chart D 3 2 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 77 The following charts Chart D 3 1 Chart D 3 4 provide the breakdown of total water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of total water withdrawn by Thermoelectric industrial users declines while the proportion of total water withdrawn by Petrochemical Pulp and Paper and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the closing of two TVA thermoelectric plants and the longterm projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
76  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Total Water Withdrawals Table D-3 provide...
76 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Total Water Withdrawals Table D 3 provides a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data The forecasts indicate that Mining Petrochemical Other Manufacturing and Wholesale will experience significant increases in total water withdrawal with increases of 80 percent 1355 percent 183 percent and 421 percent respectively Pulp and Paper will experience a 3 percent decline and Thermoelectric will experience a 5 percent increase Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart D 3 1 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table D 3 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service GDP YEAR Type of Industrial User 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Mining 3 53 3 29 4 15 4 56 5 06 5 66 6 37 Thermo electric 8 251 84 8 076 40 6 701 63 7 107 20 7 564 83 8 080 43 8 660 57 Pulp and Paper 381 77 369 17 358 85 357 08 358 55 363 34 371 57 Petrochemical 151 24 295 64 332 35 513 80 817 11 1 329 25 2 200 34 Other Manufacturing 33 78 45 23 50 25 58 44 68 44 80 67 95 65 Wholesale 0 02 0 05 0 06 0 07 0 09 0 11 0 14 Total 8 822 17 8 789 79 7 447 28 8 041 16 8 814 08 9 859 45 11 334 63 Chart D 3 2 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2020 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale 77 The following charts Chart D 3 1 Chart D 3 4 provide the breakdown of total water withdrawals by the type of industrial user based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data for 2010 2020 2030 and 2040 An analysis of these charts indicates that during the 31 year period the proportion of total water withdrawn by Thermoelectric industrial users declines while the proportion of total water withdrawn by Petrochemical Pulp and Paper and Other Manufacturing industrial users increases This is consistent with the closing of two TVA thermoelectric plants and the longterm projections for these three industrial users since Pulp and Paper is expected to have nominal growth but Petrochemical and Other Manufacturing are expected to have significant growth
76  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Total Water Withdrawals Table D-3 provide...
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart D 3 3 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Table D 4 and Chart D 4 provide a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the water source based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data The forecast indicates that approximately 99 percent of water withdrawn is surface water Ground water is projected to increase by 185 percent during the 31 year period whereas surface water is expected to increase by 28 percent Thermo electric is the largest user of surface water and the closing of the two TVA plants significantly impacts the surface water withdrawn Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table D 4 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service GDP YEAR Water Source 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Ground 33 20 45 64 50 97 58 29 67 57 79 39 94 56 Surface 8 788 97 8 744 16 7 396 31 7 982 86 8 746 51 9 780 06 11 240 07 Total 8 822 17 8 789 79 7 447 28 8 041 16 8 814 08 9 859 45 11 334 63 Chart D 3 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service GDP Chart D 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawal in MGD 2010 2040 International Forecasting Service GDP 100 000 00 Mining 10 000 00 1 00 2010 2015 2020 2025 2035 11 240 07 94 56 7 780 06 2030 79 39 8 746 51 67 57 10 00 7 982 86 100 00 58 29 Wholesale 7 396 31 Other Manufacturing 50 97 Petrochemical 8 744 16 1 00 00 45 64 Pulp and Paper 8 788 97 Thermo electric 33 20 78 2040 Surface Ground 79
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Suppli...
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Chart D 3 3 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service GDP Mining Thermo electric Pulp and Paper Table D 4 and Chart D 4 provide a breakdown of total water withdrawal for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 by the water source based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data The forecast indicates that approximately 99 percent of water withdrawn is surface water Ground water is projected to increase by 185 percent during the 31 year period whereas surface water is expected to increase by 28 percent Thermo electric is the largest user of surface water and the closing of the two TVA plants significantly impacts the surface water withdrawn Petrochemical Other Manufacturing Wholesale Table D 4 Total Water Withdrawal Data in MGD International Forecasting Service GDP YEAR Water Source 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Ground 33 20 45 64 50 97 58 29 67 57 79 39 94 56 Surface 8 788 97 8 744 16 7 396 31 7 982 86 8 746 51 9 780 06 11 240 07 Total 8 822 17 8 789 79 7 447 28 8 041 16 8 814 08 9 859 45 11 334 63 Chart D 3 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawals in MGD 2010 International Forecasting Service GDP Chart D 4 Self Supplied Total Water Withdrawal in MGD 2010 2040 International Forecasting Service GDP 100 000 00 Mining 10 000 00 1 00 2010 2015 2020 2025 2035 11 240 07 94 56 7 780 06 2030 79 39 8 746 51 67 57 10 00 7 982 86 100 00 58 29 Wholesale 7 396 31 Other Manufacturing 50 97 Petrochemical 8 744 16 1 00 00 45 64 Pulp and Paper 8 788 97 Thermo electric 33 20 78 2040 Surface Ground 79
Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Suppli...
80 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 81 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table D 5 Water Withdrawal in MGD by County International Forecasting Service GDP 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 COUNTY Surface Ground AUTAUGA County Level Analysis The county level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each county during the 31 year period Table D 5 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each county in the State of Alabama based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data The results indicate that two counties Colbert and Jackson experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each county However some counties experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g Etowah Greene Mobile Morgan Shelby and Walker with increases of 96 percent 92 percent 94 percent 2349 percent 92 percent and 99 percent The counties with the largest water withdrawals are Limestone Walker Mobile Morgan and Shelby with each county having water withdrawals in excess of 1 billion gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these five counties accounts for 84 percent of all water withdrawn HUC Level Analysis The HUC level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each HUC during the 31 year period Table D 6 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each HUC in the State of Alabama based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data The results indicate that two HUCs 06030001 and 06030005 experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each HUC However some HUCs experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g 03140304 03150106 03150107 03150204 03160109 03160113 03160203 and 06030002 with increases of 128 percent 77 percent 92 percent 62 percent 93 percent 93 percent 93 percent and 60 percent respectively The HUCs with the largest water withdrawals are 03150107 03160109 03160204 and 06030002 with each HUC having water withdrawals in excess of 1 billion gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these four HUCs accounts for 84 percent of all water withdrawn 32 42 9 84 Total Surface Ground 42 26 32 43 9 84 Total Surface Ground 42 28 33 89 10 21 Total Surface Ground 44 11 34 73 10 42 Total Surface Ground 45 15 35 60 10 63 Total Surface Ground 46 23 36 51 10 84 Total Surface Ground 47 35 37 45 11 06 Total 48 51 BALDWIN BARBOUR 1 58 1 58 1 32 1 32 1 46 1 46 1 40 1 40 1 34 1 34 1 29 1 29 1 24 1 24 BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK BUTLER 0 30 0 30 0 27 0 27 0 25 0 25 0 22 0 22 0 20 0 20 0 18 0 18 0 17 0 17 CALHOUN 0 97 0 97 0 98 0 98 1 04 1 04 1 09 1 09 1 13 1 13 1 18 1 18 1 22 1 22 CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON 0 35 0 35 0 38 0 38 0 43 0 43 0 47 0 47 0 53 0 53 0 58 0 58 0 65 0 65 CHOCTAW 40 80 40 80 36 57 36 57 33 35 33 35 30 14 30 14 27 25 27 25 24 63 24 63 22 26 22 26 CLARKE 20 21 20 21 18 11 18 11 16 52 16 52 14 93 14 93 13 50 13 50 12 20 12 20 11 03 11 03 CLAY CLEBURNE 1 13 1 13 2 06 2 06 COFFEE COLBERT 1 331 41 0 31 1 331 72 1 353 63 0 35 1 353 98 2 26 2 26 2 17 2 17 93 23 0 37 93 60 108 35 0 41 108 76 2 09 2 09 126 42 0 45 126 87 2 00 2 00 148 00 0 50 148 50 1 93 1 93 173 78 0 55 174 34 CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON 1 74 1 74 1 76 1 76 2 16 2 16 2 41 2 41 2 68 2 68 2 99 2 99 3 34 3 34 CRENSHAW CULLMAN 1 83 0 43 2 26 2 79 0 76 3 55 3 14 0 90 4 04 3 45 1 13 4 58 3 86 1 42 5 28 4 39 1 79 6 18 5 08 2 25 7 33 DALE DALLAS 32 20 0 14 32 34 28 86 0 12 28 99 26 32 0 11 26 43 23 79 0 10 23 89 21 50 0 09 21 60 19 44 0 08 19 52 17 57 0 07 17 64 DEKALB ELMORE 35 08 40 92 1 66 42 58 44 17 46 05 50 71 2 12 52 83 58 22 2 40 60 63 66 84 2 73 69 57 76 74 3 10 79 84 ETOWAH 123 78 123 78 127 22 127 22 154 77 154 77 173 10 173 10 193 63 193 63 216 61 216 61 242 36 242 36 FAYETTE 1 10 1 10 0 85 0 85 1 12 1 12 1 13 1 13 1 14 1 14 1 15 1 15 1 16 1 16 FRANKLIN GENEVA GREENE 354 43 ESCAMBIA 33 61 1 47 358 44 0 03 358 47 440 84 0 04 440 88 491 51 0 04 491 55 0 05 548 06 611 00 0 05 611 05 681 23 0 06 681 29 HALE 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 03 0 03 0 04 0 04 0 04 0 04 0 06 0 06 0 07 0 07 HENRY 0 54 0 54 0 58 0 58 0 63 0 63 0 69 0 69 0 74 0 74 0 81 0 81 0 87 0 87 89 20 0 17 89 37 81 69 0 28 81 96 89 00 0 30 89 31 87 67 0 30 87 97 86 37 0 30 86 66 85 08 0 29 85 37 83 81 0 29 84 10 10 00 HOUSTON 0 03 354 46 1 87 1 065 94 9 23 9 23 9 42 9 42 9 61 9 61 9 80 9 80 10 00 JEFFERSON 0 50 0 50 0 03 0 55 0 58 0 03 0 60 0 64 0 04 0 67 0 71 0 05 0 75 0 80 0 06 0 85 0 90 0 07 0 96 1 03 LAMAR 0 11 0 11 0 12 0 12 0 13 0 13 0 15 0 15 0 16 0 16 0 18 0 18 0 20 0 20 JACKSON 1 054 12 LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEE LIMESTONE 1 054 12 1 065 94 548 01 60 09 60 09 53 86 53 86 49 11 49 11 44 39 44 39 40 13 40 13 36 27 36 27 32 79 32 79 2 725 63 2 725 63 2 496 09 2 496 09 2 719 63 2 719 63 2 679 08 2 679 08 2 639 13 2 639 13 2 599 78 2 599 78 2 561 02 2 561 02 LOWNDES 4 56 4 56 4 61 4 61 5 47 5 47 6 50 6 50 7 72 7 72 9 17 9 17 MACON MADISON MARENGO 17 78 17 78 17 78 17 78 18 45 18 45 18 82 18 82 19 20 19 20 19 59 19 59 19 98 19 98 MARION MARSHALL 0 08 0 08 0 09 0 09 0 12 0 12 0 14 0 14 0 15 0 15 0 16 0 16 0 18 0 18 MOBILE 991 17 MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN 7 03 998 20 1 002 53 9 65 1 012 17 1 232 89 0 69 48 23 46 54 0 14 2 88 3 03 211 28 0 00 46 31 0 39 46 70 47 54 81 43 0 00 81 44 10 96 1 243 85 1 374 66 0 81 47 35 52 18 13 67 1 388 33 1 532 74 1 02 53 20 58 49 0 13 3 33 3 46 211 28 229 50 0 01 229 50 17 30 1 550 04 1 29 59 78 1 708 99 22 22 1 731 22 65 58 1 62 67 20 1 905 52 28 92 1 934 45 73 53 2 03 75 57 0 12 4 19 4 31 0 11 5 31 5 42 0 10 6 77 6 87 0 09 8 69 8 78 392 01 0 01 392 02 672 43 0 01 672 44 1 156 81 0 02 1 156 83 1 994 06 0 02 1 994 08 PERRY PICKENS 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 PIKE RANDOLPH 27 64 0 92 28 56 27 64 0 92 28 56 28 67 0 96 29 62 29 25 0 98 30 22 29 84 30 83 30 44 31 45 31 05 RUSSELL 1 00 1 02 1 04 32 09 SHELBY 665 45 665 45 672 98 672 98 827 68 827 68 922 82 922 82 1 028 90 1 028 90 1 147 16 1 147 16 1 279 03 1 279 03 STCLAIR 4 46 4 46 5 71 5 71 6 75 6 75 8 29 8 29 10 18 10 18 12 51 12 51 15 37 15 37 SUMTER 2 03 2 03 2 28 2 28 2 56 2 56 3 02 3 02 3 58 3 58 4 24 4 24 5 04 5 04 24 67 24 67 22 12 22 12 20 17 20 17 18 23 18 23 16 48 16 48 14 89 14 89 13 46 13 46 TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA 2 12 0 74 2 86 2 00 0 76 2 76 2 39 0 84 3 23 2 74 1 03 3 77 3 18 1 28 4 46 3 75 1 60 5 35 4 46 2 01 6 47 1 279 72 1 426 83 1 426 83 1 590 84 1 590 84 1 773 70 153 09 154 11 922 82 922 82 933 26 933 26 1 147 79 WASHINGTON 80 39 6 15 86 55 81 66 6 73 88 39 99 84 8 69 108 53 111 28 10 37 121 65 WILCOX 20 13 20 13 18 05 18 05 16 46 16 46 14 87 14 87 13 45 13 45 12 15 12 15 WALKER WINSTON TOTAL 8 788 97 33 20 8 822 17 8 744 16 45 64 8 789 79 1 147 79 1 279 72 7 396 31 50 97 7 447 28 7 982 86 58 29 8 041 16 124 04 12 39 136 43 8 746 51 67 57 8 814 08 138 26 14 84 1 773 70 17 79 171 90 10 99 10 99 9 780 06 79 39 9 859 45 11 240 07 94 56 11 334 63
80  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  81  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Sel...
80 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 81 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table D 5 Water Withdrawal in MGD by County International Forecasting Service GDP 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 COUNTY Surface Ground AUTAUGA County Level Analysis The county level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each county during the 31 year period Table D 5 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each county in the State of Alabama based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data The results indicate that two counties Colbert and Jackson experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each county However some counties experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g Etowah Greene Mobile Morgan Shelby and Walker with increases of 96 percent 92 percent 94 percent 2349 percent 92 percent and 99 percent The counties with the largest water withdrawals are Limestone Walker Mobile Morgan and Shelby with each county having water withdrawals in excess of 1 billion gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these five counties accounts for 84 percent of all water withdrawn HUC Level Analysis The HUC level analysis addresses the total water withdrawn by industrial users in each HUC during the 31 year period Table D 6 provides the forecasts for 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 and 2040 for each HUC in the State of Alabama based on the International Forecasting Service GDP data The results indicate that two HUCs 06030001 and 06030005 experience significant declines in the amount of water withdrawn This is because TVA is closing a steam plant in each HUC However some HUCs experience significant increases in water withdrawn during the 31 year period e g 03140304 03150106 03150107 03150204 03160109 03160113 03160203 and 06030002 with increases of 128 percent 77 percent 92 percent 62 percent 93 percent 93 percent 93 percent and 60 percent respectively The HUCs with the largest water withdrawals are 03150107 03160109 03160204 and 06030002 with each HUC having water withdrawals in excess of 1 billion gallons per day by 2040 In 2040 the water withdrawal for these four HUCs accounts for 84 percent of all water withdrawn 32 42 9 84 Total Surface Ground 42 26 32 43 9 84 Total Surface Ground 42 28 33 89 10 21 Total Surface Ground 44 11 34 73 10 42 Total Surface Ground 45 15 35 60 10 63 Total Surface Ground 46 23 36 51 10 84 Total Surface Ground 47 35 37 45 11 06 Total 48 51 BALDWIN BARBOUR 1 58 1 58 1 32 1 32 1 46 1 46 1 40 1 40 1 34 1 34 1 29 1 29 1 24 1 24 BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK BUTLER 0 30 0 30 0 27 0 27 0 25 0 25 0 22 0 22 0 20 0 20 0 18 0 18 0 17 0 17 CALHOUN 0 97 0 97 0 98 0 98 1 04 1 04 1 09 1 09 1 13 1 13 1 18 1 18 1 22 1 22 CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON 0 35 0 35 0 38 0 38 0 43 0 43 0 47 0 47 0 53 0 53 0 58 0 58 0 65 0 65 CHOCTAW 40 80 40 80 36 57 36 57 33 35 33 35 30 14 30 14 27 25 27 25 24 63 24 63 22 26 22 26 CLARKE 20 21 20 21 18 11 18 11 16 52 16 52 14 93 14 93 13 50 13 50 12 20 12 20 11 03 11 03 CLAY CLEBURNE 1 13 1 13 2 06 2 06 COFFEE COLBERT 1 331 41 0 31 1 331 72 1 353 63 0 35 1 353 98 2 26 2 26 2 17 2 17 93 23 0 37 93 60 108 35 0 41 108 76 2 09 2 09 126 42 0 45 126 87 2 00 2 00 148 00 0 50 148 50 1 93 1 93 173 78 0 55 174 34 CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON 1 74 1 74 1 76 1 76 2 16 2 16 2 41 2 41 2 68 2 68 2 99 2 99 3 34 3 34 CRENSHAW CULLMAN 1 83 0 43 2 26 2 79 0 76 3 55 3 14 0 90 4 04 3 45 1 13 4 58 3 86 1 42 5 28 4 39 1 79 6 18 5 08 2 25 7 33 DALE DALLAS 32 20 0 14 32 34 28 86 0 12 28 99 26 32 0 11 26 43 23 79 0 10 23 89 21 50 0 09 21 60 19 44 0 08 19 52 17 57 0 07 17 64 DEKALB ELMORE 35 08 40 92 1 66 42 58 44 17 46 05 50 71 2 12 52 83 58 22 2 40 60 63 66 84 2 73 69 57 76 74 3 10 79 84 ETOWAH 123 78 123 78 127 22 127 22 154 77 154 77 173 10 173 10 193 63 193 63 216 61 216 61 242 36 242 36 FAYETTE 1 10 1 10 0 85 0 85 1 12 1 12 1 13 1 13 1 14 1 14 1 15 1 15 1 16 1 16 FRANKLIN GENEVA GREENE 354 43 ESCAMBIA 33 61 1 47 358 44 0 03 358 47 440 84 0 04 440 88 491 51 0 04 491 55 0 05 548 06 611 00 0 05 611 05 681 23 0 06 681 29 HALE 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 03 0 03 0 04 0 04 0 04 0 04 0 06 0 06 0 07 0 07 HENRY 0 54 0 54 0 58 0 58 0 63 0 63 0 69 0 69 0 74 0 74 0 81 0 81 0 87 0 87 89 20 0 17 89 37 81 69 0 28 81 96 89 00 0 30 89 31 87 67 0 30 87 97 86 37 0 30 86 66 85 08 0 29 85 37 83 81 0 29 84 10 10 00 HOUSTON 0 03 354 46 1 87 1 065 94 9 23 9 23 9 42 9 42 9 61 9 61 9 80 9 80 10 00 JEFFERSON 0 50 0 50 0 03 0 55 0 58 0 03 0 60 0 64 0 04 0 67 0 71 0 05 0 75 0 80 0 06 0 85 0 90 0 07 0 96 1 03 LAMAR 0 11 0 11 0 12 0 12 0 13 0 13 0 15 0 15 0 16 0 16 0 18 0 18 0 20 0 20 JACKSON 1 054 12 LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEE LIMESTONE 1 054 12 1 065 94 548 01 60 09 60 09 53 86 53 86 49 11 49 11 44 39 44 39 40 13 40 13 36 27 36 27 32 79 32 79 2 725 63 2 725 63 2 496 09 2 496 09 2 719 63 2 719 63 2 679 08 2 679 08 2 639 13 2 639 13 2 599 78 2 599 78 2 561 02 2 561 02 LOWNDES 4 56 4 56 4 61 4 61 5 47 5 47 6 50 6 50 7 72 7 72 9 17 9 17 MACON MADISON MARENGO 17 78 17 78 17 78 17 78 18 45 18 45 18 82 18 82 19 20 19 20 19 59 19 59 19 98 19 98 MARION MARSHALL 0 08 0 08 0 09 0 09 0 12 0 12 0 14 0 14 0 15 0 15 0 16 0 16 0 18 0 18 MOBILE 991 17 MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN 7 03 998 20 1 002 53 9 65 1 012 17 1 232 89 0 69 48 23 46 54 0 14 2 88 3 03 211 28 0 00 46 31 0 39 46 70 47 54 81 43 0 00 81 44 10 96 1 243 85 1 374 66 0 81 47 35 52 18 13 67 1 388 33 1 532 74 1 02 53 20 58 49 0 13 3 33 3 46 211 28 229 50 0 01 229 50 17 30 1 550 04 1 29 59 78 1 708 99 22 22 1 731 22 65 58 1 62 67 20 1 905 52 28 92 1 934 45 73 53 2 03 75 57 0 12 4 19 4 31 0 11 5 31 5 42 0 10 6 77 6 87 0 09 8 69 8 78 392 01 0 01 392 02 672 43 0 01 672 44 1 156 81 0 02 1 156 83 1 994 06 0 02 1 994 08 PERRY PICKENS 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 PIKE RANDOLPH 27 64 0 92 28 56 27 64 0 92 28 56 28 67 0 96 29 62 29 25 0 98 30 22 29 84 30 83 30 44 31 45 31 05 RUSSELL 1 00 1 02 1 04 32 09 SHELBY 665 45 665 45 672 98 672 98 827 68 827 68 922 82 922 82 1 028 90 1 028 90 1 147 16 1 147 16 1 279 03 1 279 03 STCLAIR 4 46 4 46 5 71 5 71 6 75 6 75 8 29 8 29 10 18 10 18 12 51 12 51 15 37 15 37 SUMTER 2 03 2 03 2 28 2 28 2 56 2 56 3 02 3 02 3 58 3 58 4 24 4 24 5 04 5 04 24 67 24 67 22 12 22 12 20 17 20 17 18 23 18 23 16 48 16 48 14 89 14 89 13 46 13 46 TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA 2 12 0 74 2 86 2 00 0 76 2 76 2 39 0 84 3 23 2 74 1 03 3 77 3 18 1 28 4 46 3 75 1 60 5 35 4 46 2 01 6 47 1 279 72 1 426 83 1 426 83 1 590 84 1 590 84 1 773 70 153 09 154 11 922 82 922 82 933 26 933 26 1 147 79 WASHINGTON 80 39 6 15 86 55 81 66 6 73 88 39 99 84 8 69 108 53 111 28 10 37 121 65 WILCOX 20 13 20 13 18 05 18 05 16 46 16 46 14 87 14 87 13 45 13 45 12 15 12 15 WALKER WINSTON TOTAL 8 788 97 33 20 8 822 17 8 744 16 45 64 8 789 79 1 147 79 1 279 72 7 396 31 50 97 7 447 28 7 982 86 58 29 8 041 16 124 04 12 39 136 43 8 746 51 67 57 8 814 08 138 26 14 84 1 773 70 17 79 171 90 10 99 10 99 9 780 06 79 39 9 859 45 11 240 07 94 56 11 334 63
80  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  81  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Sel...
82 Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self Supplied Industrial Users 2010 2040 Table D 6 Water Withdrawal in MGD by HUC International Forecasting Service GDP 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 HUC Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total Surface Ground Total 03130002 03130003 27 64 2 50 30 14 27 64 2 25 29 88 28 67 2 41 31 08 29 25 2 37 31 62 29 84 2 34 32 17 30 44 2 31 32 74 31 05 2 28 33 33 84 53 03130004 89 20 0 44 89 64 81 69 0 57 82 25 89 00 0 62 89 62 87 67 0 64 88 32 86 37 0 67 87 03 85 08 0 69 85 77 83 81 0 72 03130012 03140103 03140104 03140106 03140107 03140201 0 27 0 27 1 40 1 40 1 53 1 53 1 51 1 51 1 49 1 49 1 48 1 48 1 47 1 47 03140202 1 13 1 13 0 95 0 95 1 04 1 04 1 00 1 00 0 96 0 96 0 93 0 93 0 89 0 89 03140203 03140301 1 74 1 74 1 76 1 76 2 16 2 16 2 41 2 41 2 68 2 68 2 99 2 99 3 34 3 34 03140302 03140303 0 30 0 30 0 27 0 27 0 25 0 25 0 22 0 22 0 20 0 20 0 18 0 18 0 17 0 17 03140304 33 61 1 38 34 99 40 92 1 57 42 48 44 17 1 77 45 94 50 71 2 00 52 71 58 22 2 26 60 48 66 84 2 56 69 40 76 74 2 90 79 63 03140305 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 11 0 11 0 12 0 12 0 15 0 15 0 17 0 17 0 20 0 20 03150105 03150106 152 91 0 97 153 88 155 04 0 98 156 02 181 68 1 04 182 73 199 62 1 09 200 71 220 29 221 42 244 02 245 19 271 19 1 028 90 1 028 90 1 147 16 1 147 16 1 279 03 1 13 1 18 1 22 272 41 03150107 665 45 665 45 672 98 672 98 827 68 827 68 922 82 922 82 03150108 03150109 03150110 03150201 64 62 10 33 74 95 61 44 17 79 79 23 60 34 18 68 79 03 58 64 20 65 79 29 57 21 23 06 80 26 56 04 26 00 1 279 03 82 04 55 11 29 64 84 75 03150202 0 16 0 16 0 03 0 20 0 23 0 03 0 24 0 27 0 04 0 29 0 33 0 05 0 36 0 40 0 06 0 44 0 49 0 07 0 54 0 61 03150203 20 13 20 13 18 05 18 05 16 46 16 46 14 87 14 87 13 45 13 45 12 15 12 15 10 99 10 99 1 02 1 29 1 62 75 57 03150204 46 31 0 39 46 70 47 54 0 69 48 23 46 54 0 81 47 35 52 18 53 20 58 49 59 78 65 58 67 20 73 53 2 03 03160101 03160103 03160105 0 11 0 11 0 12 0 12 0 13 0 13 0 15 0 15 0 16 0 16 0 18 0 18 0 20 0 20 03160106 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 03160107 03160108 03160109 924 65 936 04 0 76 936 81 0 90 1 151 83 1 283 17 1 13 1 284 30 03160110 03160111 0 34 0 34 0 35 0 35 0 37 0 37 0 38 0 38 0 40 0 40 0 41 0 41 0 42 0 42 0 20 03160112 2 19 03160113 355 47 0 43 925 08 1 150 93 1 430 68 1 42 1 432 10 1 595 23 1 79 1 597 01 1 778 78 2 25 1 781 03 2 39 1 70 0 18 1 88 2 22 0 19 2 41 2 25 0 19 2 44 2 27 0 20 2 47 2 29 0 21 2 50 2 31 0 22 2 53 0 58 356 05 359 59 0 64 360 23 442 12 0 72 442 84 493 13 0 92 494 05 550 06 1 17 551 24 613 61 1 50 615 11 684 54 1 93 686 47 03160201 59 50 59 50 55 29 55 29 52 71 52 71 49 99 49 99 47 60 47 60 45 50 45 50 43 69 03160202 1 11 1 11 1 34 1 34 1 64 1 64 1 99 1 99 2 43 2 43 2 95 2 95 3 59 03160203 100 60 7 08 107 68 99 78 107 63 116 36 126 30 126 21 03160204 991 17 4 94 996 11 1 002 53 6 63 1 009 16 1 232 89 7 49 1 240 38 1 374 66 03160205 1 16 1 16 1 88 1 88 2 21 2 21 3 07 3 07 4 29 4 29 6 00 6 00 8 43 03170002 03170003 7 86 9 95 11 84 138 06 9 12 1 383 78 137 53 14 12 1 532 74 151 65 11 28 1 544 02 150 46 16 86 167 32 1 708 99 14 20 1 723 19 165 13 20 16 43 69 3 59 185 29 1 905 52 18 13 1 923 65 8 43 03170008 03170009 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 06030001 06020001 1 054 12 0 08 1 054 20 1 065 94 0 09 1 066 03 9 23 0 12 9 36 9 42 0 14 9 56 9 61 0 15 9 76 9 80 0 16 9 97 10 00 0 18 10 18 06030002 2 867 15 2 998 24 0 01 2 998 24 3 115 48 0 01 3 115 49 3 351 69 0 01 3 351 70 3 792 87 0 02 3 792 88 4 587 86 0 00 2 867 15 2 761 23 0 00 2 761 24 06030003 06030004 93 23 0 37 93 60 108 35 0 41 108 76 126 42 0 45 126 87 148 00 0 50 148 50 173 78 0 55 174 34 06030005 06030006 TOTAL 1 331 41 8 788 97 0 31 1 331 72 1 353 63 0 35 1 353 98 33 20 8 822 17 8 744 16 45 64 8 789 79 7 396 31 50 97 7 447 28 7 982 86 58 29 8 041 16 8 746 51 67 57 8 814 08 0 02 4 587 89 9 780 06 79 39 9 859 45 11 240 07 94 56 11 334 63
82  Forecast of Water Withdrawals for Self-Supplied Industrial Users  2010-2040  Table D-6  Water Withdrawal  in MGD  by H...